You
After Sarah Rodriguez drops out of the race for governor, David Crowley drops back in.
We know Tony Eva supports him. We don't know yet what voters think.
This is inside Wisconsin politics.
I'm Sean Johnson here with my colleagues, Anya Van Wegndong, Zach Schultz, and Rich Kramer in Eau Claire.
Hey everyone.
So this race is pure chaos now wouldn't you say? I mean when you think about it just last week we were talking about Sarah Rodriguez's campaign sort of teetering shortly after it fell and then almost immediately you had David Crowley who had been out of the race get back in.
Get back in. Anya why did David Crowley take that step so quickly after Sarah Rodriguez dropped out? Why did it need to be him in this race?
I mean it's a really great question and I think we're kind of trying to hammer down exactly what that eight-day calculus kind of was so he dropped out he backed Sarah Rodriguez a couple days later she made this announcement that there were issues with her campaign but she was going to stay in and I spoke to him a little bit ago and his timeline
of events is essentially that she informed him what was going on. He reiterated his support for her campaign, started hearing from backers all week that they wanted him back in that essentially there was different information than what he had dropped out on.
And we started hearing from sources that maybe he was going to get back in with the finance deadline.
Never heard back from him when I directly asked this last week and then we started to hear the rumblings on Friday as Sarah announced that she was dropping out that he was going to announce the next day and then we kind of got that confirmation.
So it really was almost a trading of who was going to be potentially this front runner. The other thing that of course came with his announcement was Governor Tony Evers endorsing him and so that he suddenly became the sort of person who was tied to that administration in this race.
Yeah, I don't feel like you can talk about the Crowley candidacy without talking about Governor Tony Evers in that decision. Zach, why did Tony Evers who has told us repeatedly throughout this primary cycle, I'm not going to get involved.
Why did he get involved now and why did he say David Crowley is my guy?
Well, he always the second half of the statement of I'm not going to evolve is that I might decide later and that always felt like keeping the back door open but unlikely to be used.
Well, he went through the back door. He definitely did. He played his Euchar card as his last his last Jack in the hole for that.
The reason why seems only can be that he and others that think like him are not happy with Francesca Hong in the lead she has throughout this entire race.
All the polling, including the stuff we're going to talk about later in this very show shows that she is a clear front runner for the Democratic primary.
And really there's been no ability for anyone else to centralize all of the support for the centrist, moderate Tony Evers air to take over that position.
We had heard that Evers and Crowley got along that they liked each other.
How much of that personal relationship matters we don't know and matters a lot in politics.
Sarah Rodriguez clearly had that position even without the endorsement.
So Tony even could say I'm not the kingmaker here. Clearly him stepping in is that he felt he needed to use some of his political capital to try and boost someone to take on Francesca Hong and make it a two person race.
Yeah, Rich, we've been kind of hinting at that that Hong Diamond dynamic all campaign cycle.
But until now, Democrats hadn't been out there saying it.
You covered the Crowley announcement this past Saturday. He's saying it now.
Yeah, I mean, he didn't name her when he announced, but it was pretty obvious who he was talking about.
He referenced the Republican Governors Association, the RGA, putting up ads that it says are attacking her, but Democrats feel that it's actually boosting her
and aimed at trying to get her to clear the Democrats' nomination.
So he mentioned that and it's pretty obvious what's going on here.
So what does this say about what Tony Evers thinks about the rest of the field, Anya?
Well, I think it was a bit of a dance that he needed to be doing because he does have relationships with everybody else in the field.
So obviously it was his current lieutenant governor who stepped out, Sarah Rodriguez, but his former lieutenant governor, Mandela Barnes, is in there.
His former DOA secretary, Joel Brennan, and then Calder Roy's, who's been in the legislature alongside him for quite a number of years.
David Collin, in some ways, is actually the person he has the least professional relationship with, just because David operates at the county level.
He's not in the state legislature quite as much, so they haven't necessarily worked.
He hasn't served in the administration, I guess I should say.
And so it's interesting that this is the person that he's choosing to back because he does have, you know, as you say, he pulled the one card that he kind of has.
And he's putting it behind this person who dropped out, who had said that he didn't have the finances, who said he didn't have the path.
And so Tony Evers is saying, both I back this person, I back his politics, and I think I can help him get that path.
I will say, if you just walk back a few years, David Crowley used to be a legislative staffer.
The governor's chief of staff used to be a legislative staffer who was called David Crowley a friend, and she is influential in the governor's office.
So there's possible that he was getting advice there that David Crowley is a good candidate.
So what's the theory of how this works out, though, Zach?
I mean, the governor's office and Crowley are going into this thing thinking, we're going to take this big risk.
They must think they can win. How does it work?
That's a good question. And we have seen how quickly the dynamics in this race can change on the ground.
We have seen candidates rise and fall according to finance reports, according to polling, candidates dropping out, coming back in.
Things are happening rapidly. And one thing, it feels like it's really close to this primary election, because ballots have already been returned.
The Democratic Party is worried about people not being able to spoil those ballots if they backed someone who's dropped out.
And there's still a long way to go, though. There's still a couple of weeks, there's more polls, there's a lot more ad spending.
And as we're going to explain, there was actually an incident that happened in Madison last night with the police that involved shooting.
These kind of things shake up races in a big way by putting candidates in difficult positions to see how they react, and they are judged according to that.
Yeah, we do want to acknowledge that shooting people are reacting to that shooting that took place Wednesday.
There's a vigil tonight or Thursday as we record this.
This is going to be a thing. You've already seen the candidates react to some very strongly.
It's going to affect the race. We're just going to take a pause here and wait for more information to learn more about this.
Before we talk about it in this setting, Rich, turning to something very explicitly political.
The Marquette poll came out this week. We've been looking forward to this for a while.
The last time Marquette polled on the race for governor was in March.
So why did this one that we've been kind of marking on our calendar seem so incomplete?
You're saying we marked the Marquette poll on our calendars?
I mean, we might have. It's because it is incomplete. It's not a full picture, but it's through no fault of the pollsters, who I'll mention in a second.
But the questions went out to Wisconsin voters between July 8th and the 16th.
Well, July 8th is when the things kind of got crazy in the primary.
Crowley had dropped out on July 8th when the questions were out, so he wasn't included in the results that we saw.
And also the poll asked about Rodriguez. Her information was included, but she ended her campaign essentially right after they got the data back from their surveys.
So it's still good information. Still gave us a sense of where things are at, at least among those that were included in the poll results.
But it's just a partial picture. So I wanted to give a shout out to pollster Charles Franklin, who I know watches this podcast.
And we all really appreciate the work that Charles and the rest of his team do.
And I think we can sympathize, at least I can, that we've all been in a position where we're writing a story or we just published a story only to have the news change and essentially make that story.
You know, totally outdated and you have to start from scratch. So it's like throwing darts at a moving target. It's pretty tough.
So kudos to them for doing what they could.
Rich Kramer looking to boost his approval rating with Marquette's pollster there with a shout out.
So let's take a look at those results real quick. The Canada 2 remain in the race.
This is when you don't include David Crowley and you don't include the voters who picked Sarah Rodriguez.
Francesca Hong leads the pack with 27% followed by Mandela Barnes with 18 Joel Brennan with five.
Kaldor is with two and 48% undecided.
So Francesca Hong leads the field. This is the third Marquette poll that she's done that in this year.
Does she have this locked up?
I mean, I think if she had it locked up, we wouldn't be seeing the deck shuffling that we keep seeing because she does very well in these polls.
She has a very energetic base of support and yet she doesn't have the power players kind of unifying behind her because they keep trying to find an alternative.
I think if she, you know, had it locked up, so to speak, there would be a confidence from the sort of democratic authorities, the democratic kingmakers that would say that she can win both the primary and win the general.
And I think we are seeing maybe implicitly more than explicitly a real concern that she can't.
And so who can they kind of bring in in order to beat Tom Tiffany?
And so she does very well in a democratic poll.
Although again, I think we also have to talk about that 48% undecided number, but can she do all in a general?
That's sort of the big question that Democrats are very worried about.
Yeah, let's talk about that.
48% nearly half of the people, half of the democratic voters who responded to this saying, I don't know how I'm going to vote for.
Zach, what's the deal? We've been doing podcasts about this rate all summer.
Why are so many people not sure about this?
What we thought would be going to be a very high profile race for governor?
Because those 48% make up a lot of people who don't watch this podcast so they are not as informed.
There are a lot of people who don't pay attention to politics until the very end.
I just got the first campaign flyer in my mailbox this morning.
They're starting to come.
Those people will follow along.
Another thing that happens in primaries pretty regularly is people wait to see if there is a front runner.
They don't like to waste their vote on someone who will not win.
Or they're going to say, well, I like this person, but they're in fourth place and they're not polling very high.
Why would I throw it behind them?
Who's my next favorite?
Which is another good thing the Marquette poll does.
They do.
Who is your next favorite in line?
Another thing to look at is Tom Tiffany's unopposed and Republican primary.
There's still 30% undecided there.
They're going to vote for the Republican.
But I think you can take that 30%, put it over and compare it to the 48% for the Democrats and go,
okay, there's just a lot of people that either aren't tuned in yet,
or they're waiting to the last minute to figure out who is actually the front runner.
Who do I trust to be the candidate for my favorite party?
A large portion of Wisconsinites have just been living their lives this year.
It turns out.
Who knows to them?
So what about the candidates who are toward the bottom of this polling?
Joel Brennan and Kilda Royce, Brennan at 5%, Royce at 2%.
Where does that leave them?
Rich, I'll go to you first.
What do you think?
Well, I mean, it leaves them in the position that they've been in for a while.
They're just towards the bottom of the heap in terms of the polling we've seen.
So ultimately, they and their supporters and their donors have decisions to make,
whether they stay in the race or whether they drop out and endorse someone like a Crowley
or a Hong or a Barnes or whoever.
So, you know, I've never been in that position.
I don't know what all you have to think about.
They've clearly invested a lot of time and resources into their races thus far,
so maybe they won't drop out.
But at some point, you would think that those are conversations happening within the campaigns.
It seems like they are saying we have money.
And if, you know, sharing their own internal polling, if voters get to know us, they like us.
And so a lot of race left to run from their point of view.
Joel Brennan is actually running probably the most negative ads I've seen in the primary
where he lists all the sort of front-runner candidates and explains kind of explicitly
why they can't win in November.
His words, Anya, I mean, what's going on with Joel Brennan's decision there?
Yeah, I mean, you're right.
I think it is a kind of tonal shift.
We've talked about some of these, you know, attacks on social media,
but this is a really kind of negative ad.
It has the, you know, the color tint over the, like, the opponents that you normally kind of see more in a general.
And I think it goes to this kind of game that voters tend to play in competitive primaries
in such a swing state, like Wisconsin, where, again, you are not taking for granted
that the winner of a primary is going to win the general, as might happen in other states,
where Democratic voters right now are, like, playing 3D chess.
They are not just trying to identify who is the candidate that I support,
but who is the candidate that my neighbors are going to support?
And so, therefore, how can I make sure to kind of get the most out of my vote?
And so he's speaking to that electability question
and essentially saying, I am the most electable, and then when you do have 48% undecided,
there's maybe an argument to be made or he's trying to make the argument of, like,
well, what would happen if all 48% of them went to me, right?
That's a lot of extra voters.
So, yes, he's now 3% to Fran Hong's, you know, 27% to Mandela Barnes's 18%,
but if he gets half of those undecideds, he's a front runner.
And so maybe he's kind of banking on that.
There you go.
Marquette did look at, well, they looked at a lot,
but they had some head-to-head match-ups in there.
If you look at those, you get a slightly different story.
Of the Democrats in the race right now, not including David Crowley,
only Mandela Barnes defeats Tom Tiffany in head-to-head match-up
by a 44% to 40% split among registered voters.
Tiffany leads Francesca Hong 43% to 40%.
So, a plus four for Mandela Barnes, minus three for Francesca Hong.
Zach, I mean, I think it kind of begs the question,
why did the establishment not rally around Mandela Barnes?
I think that's the question Mandela Barnes's campaign is asking
and saying you might have made a mistake if you are looking for a Hong alternative.
That's certainly what they are pushing right now.
But I think one of the distinctions is Barnes came in with the most name recognition
of everyone due to his 2022 U.S. Senate run, his close loss to Ron Johnson.
And it was always a question because he also had the highest negatives
that came with that hangover from that election.
And he started running this race as the front-runner.
He introduced himself as saying, I'm the one to take on Tom Tiffany.
He did the thing where he ignores the rest of the field and kind of pretends they weren't there.
And then part way through this election, I think he or his campaign realized,
oh, no, Francesca Hong is there.
I do have to take her seriously.
So he kind of had to shift his tone to talking about his competitors,
where I think at first he was running the 2022 U.S. Senate primary,
where all of his competitors dropped out at the end and he basically had the field to himself.
That didn't happen.
So it is a question of did the rest of the field say you've had your chance
and you couldn't make your case.
Now we're going to go with someone else.
Or is it simply that they think Harry's negatives are too high
despite the head-to-head matchup looking good?
So it is a legitimate question for Evers.
It's a legitimate question for voters out there.
How should they take all these different pieces of information?
And that's what happens when you have this many centrist or moderate candidates
all trying to claim that one mantle is they can divide the field, which is what they're doing.
And now Mandel Barnes is attacking the establishment, which was definitely his friend four years ago.
We should talk real quick before we wrap up here today about what happens
with all these tens of thousands of voters who cast absentee ballots
and maybe want to change those ballots.
A short answer, can they?
No.
Well, not at this moment.
Yeah.
According to Wisconsin Election Commission guidance, the answer is no.
That guidance was issued voted on on July 9th, issued on July 10th.
Anya, you had a well.
Well, yes.
So, you know, truly moments before we started taping, I got sent motions that were filed in court,
so there is now a lawsuit about this.
I did not have a chance to open those documents, and so we won't talk about them today.
I skimmed them.
But I suspect that we'll talk about them soon.
Yeah, that's right.
And so that's something that's going to need to get resolved pretty quickly in the primaries August 11th.
And so for people who, you are talking tens of thousands of people who have voted 80,000 people
who have now voted absentee, so that's definitely something that we'll have to watch get resolved
through the courts potentially.
But as of right now, those votes cannot be counted in this very quickly shifting race for governor.
Well, they're counted, but they just can't be disqualified and recast to me there.
They will absolutely be counted no matter who you voted them for.
But changing your mind is not a reason to recast your ballot according to Wisconsin Election Commission guidance.
That's all the time we have for today.
Thanks for joining us.
This has been Inside Wisconsin Politics.
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