WEBVTT

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The

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field of candidates in Wisconsin's Democratic primary for governor gets smaller as the campaign

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ad war heats up and the vice president visits Wisconsin.

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This is Inside Wisconsin Politics.

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I'm Sean Johnson here with Anya Van Wankton-Dank and Zach Schultz, say you too.

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So we've been talking about this as a crowded Democratic primary for a long time now and

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we had seven Democratic candidates just a few weeks ago.

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And that was narrowed down to six as Missy Hughes got out of the race.

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David Crowley this week gets out of the race.

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Now we're down to five.

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Zach, is it still crowded or has this race shifted to you in a meaningful way?

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I think the crowd, it depends more on the lanes of what we're talking about.

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I think there's clearly a progressive lane.

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There's clearly a more establishment center government lane.

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And then there's a question of if there's room in between for any of the rest of them

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to kind of stake their own area or if they're competing for those two groups.

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But there clearly is this sense as the two candidates have dropped out that have now

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endorsed Sarah Rodriguez, that there is an establishment going on.

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And that fits this national theme that we're seeing of establishment Dems worrying about

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progressive Dems potentially undermining chances to win seats in November versus progressives

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who are saying no, we are the ones that are going to win these primaries and win in November

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get behind us as we keep going forward.

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So there's definitely a shrinkage there, but it's almost a shrinkage into lanes as opposed

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to these individual candidates.

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Anya, how do you see those lanes?

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I mean, I think just a few weeks ago, I was kind of having a hard time putting the candidates

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into different lanes or buckets.

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However you want to do it, what are the lanes now as you see it?

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Yeah, I think that sort of hit the nail in the head with establishment versus progressive.

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And one way that we're seeing that is when these candidates are dropping out that they

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are endorsing other candidates.

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There's a world in which you drop out and you say, I love my party and all I want is

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for a Democrat to win.

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And David Crawley did that kind of initially in his original announcement that he was stepping

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down.

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He didn't immediately endorse anyone.

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He said the most important thing is just that somebody beats Tom Tiffany in the fall.

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And then this morning came out and endorsed Sarah Rodriguez.

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So I think that's a sign that people are kind of choosing teams and trying to say who do

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I think is the best ability for Democrats to win in November.

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Is it the sort of hung progressive lane?

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Is it the Rodriguez more sort of establishment lane?

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Nobody that I've heard has come out and said, well, we got to stop Francesca Hong.

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But we've seen this debate that you've referenced at the national level where you have sort

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of the national establishment Democrats fighting against this Democratic socialist caucus this

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growing.

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Is there an unspoken, we got to stop Francesca Hong in all this or are we making that up?

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Are we looking for conflict where there is none here in Wisconsin?

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I don't think it would be wise for anyone to say that out loud from the Democratic Party

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because there's a very good chance that Hong can win this.

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And then they have to unite behind her.

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So that is the the other half of this game is you can drop out and you can endorse someone

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that you would prefer.

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But then you still want to create a sense of party unity that like that is still the

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goal is for the Democrats in their minds is to beat Tom Tiffany and whether that is

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Francesca Hong, whether that's Sarah Rodriguez or Mandela Barnes or Brennan or Roy's or

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anyone that's still in this race at this point, they have to worry about that in the long

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run.

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So in the short run, we're not seeing some of the disunity of attacking each other that

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was a potential with a more crowded race.

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There's still time and there's still million dollar ad buys coming up.

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Count of Roy's just announced an hour ago that she's got 1.2 million that she's going

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to announce and she's going to spend every last penny of it.

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She's not going to drop out of this race.

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And she has a history in some of these big competitive elections of going a little contrarian

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towards the end.

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So I don't think it's going to be all quiet and rosy from here until August.

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There's going to be some fireworks as they try and create that last separation to hopefully

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put themselves over the 30 to 35 percent that maybe needed to win.

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Anya, you were all set to do this profile of David Crowley, which you know, it just sounds

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like it's not going to happen at this point.

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But can you kind of talk through why it didn't work out for his campaign from your perspective?

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I mean, there's a world where you can imagine David Crowley being seen as one of the front

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runners in this race and it never felt like that way as this campaign unfolded.

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Yeah.

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One of the ways that he was positioning himself throughout was essentially, you know, I had

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the cities on lock.

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I am a Milwaukee native.

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I have been able to work with the suburbs.

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I represent a county that, you know, straddles suburban and urban areas and I can hold the

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line on rural areas.

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So he was essentially making this pitch of like, I can be this kind of statewide candidate

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for many people.

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One of the things that came up while I was trying to write this profile that is no longer,

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you know, whenever we write profile, poor went out for my having a little bit free time

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this weekend.

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But, you know, you always look for both, you know, supporters and critics.

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And I could not find a critic of David Crowley.

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I called people who have been on the record criticizing his, you know, his policies and

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some of how he's handled, for example, the lapse of health insurance at the county level.

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And even his like most vocal critics were like, I really like him as a person.

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And I think he'd work really well in Madison.

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And these are like conservative Republicans that I'm calling.

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And so I think that was kind of where he fit in is this really kind of affable person

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who gets along well with who plays nice with others.

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And I think in a certain way, what we're seeing is that maybe that is not as appealing to

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voters.

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Voters are mad and things are really hard for a lot of people right now.

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And maybe they want somebody who seems like a little bit of a fighter, maybe like a little

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bit of a FU to some of the institutions that they are not feeling very happy with right

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now.

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So I think Sarah Rodriguez would obviously say, this is great for me.

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He's endorsing me.

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Did you notice that?

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This is unquestionably good news for me.

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Is there a case that this is good for Mandela Barnes?

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These campaigns says, yes, we benefit the most.

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They're calling to show it.

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Already making that case, and everyone's in boxes that will listen.

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And I think there's a rational argument, especially for those that kind of follow this

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from a distance that put people into those other broader categories.

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If we have two African American men with Milwaukee roots that have connections to that part of

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the state, deep establishment ties to winning lots of local elections there, that you could

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argue that some people may say, well, that's a natural transition.

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If you liked David Crowley, you should also like Mandela Barnes.

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They don't have the same electoral history.

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They don't have the same record of working in Madison.

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They have challenged Mandela Barnes as challenged members within his own party.

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He's run a statewide contest.

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David Crowley is known for working more with Republicans as part of his pitches.

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I've worked with people to help rural Wisconsin with his bills for local issues.

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So there's an argument at one optic that this absolutely should help Mandela Barnes.

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And then there is the other end of it of who, if there is 5% that Crowley had in the state.

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Were they looking at him as more of that centrist candidate that can know how to make government

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work and won't be too crazy or too loud, more of a Tony Evers style, aw, shocks let's

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all work together and make things function, or were they looking at him as more of a,

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we need some of them from that part of the state to fight for us.

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And that goes back to that original argument we've been having.

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So were his 5% those let's get it done or let's fight?

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I think that could determine where some of those voters go.

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And I think it's a sign that this race has kind of flown under the radar this year in

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that we haven't heard people complaining about, gosh, you're being bombarded by all these

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political ads.

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There has not been an advertising blitz in this race the way that we've seen in, you

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know, the races for Supreme Court that we're used to by now or a November general election

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campaign, you know, the kind of ad bliss you're going to see in a few months.

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And so in that context, how does it matter, I guess when Sarah Rodriguez says, I'm going

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to have a million dollar ad buy that I'm going to pay for with my campaign in this sort of,

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you know, under the radar race.

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You know, one person I once spoke to a political scientist I once spoke to kind of explained

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that money in politics kind of serves two functions.

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So there's money as money, right, like the thing that you use to buy things.

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And she has a million dollars to spend on this ad.

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But then it's also money as a signal is sort of a signal of your strength, the signal

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of, you know, maybe I want other candidates to kind of back off because I have this in

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my bank account.

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What do you have?

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And so in this case, it's kind of that that to fur where both she will be able to get

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a pretty sizable amount of spread for her money paying directly from her campaign.

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But then also it signals to the other candidates like what do you got, right?

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And so it kind of again is her kind of establishing that she is a front runner because she has

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this money to spend.

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And so maybe she's also trying to, you know, sort of intimidate others who may not have

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that, right?

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Like she's sending the signal of come and get me.

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I kind of wondered if that was a factor in Crowley dropping out actually, you know, because

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they happen pretty close together.

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And I imagine a decision like that builds up more than just overnight.

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And it came right after the fundraising deadline.

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And so it's possible, you know, that campaigns have their internal goals of like if we hit

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X by certain date, we're still viable.

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And one of the things he said in his dropout was like, it is clear I will not become

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the Democratic nominee.

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And so clearly there's like a calculus of what makes that clear and maybe money was part

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of it.

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Yeah, you know, she's got at least $1 million according to her.

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And she has this outside group that has been spending money on her behalf kind of throughout

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the year.

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And they don't have to report their donors and kind of like the Wild West in terms of

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fundraising.

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The tone of the ad is, well, what says a bad word to start out with?

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There's a bleep off the top of the ad.

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And that's obviously very intentional.

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They craft these ads with a lot of money spent on the people writing the ads, speaking to

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specific audiences.

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And I think there's a lot to actually analyze within the decision of that word alone off

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the top of the ad.

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I think so, too.

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I think the first reaction that I have is this is a sign of the coarseness of American

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politics since Donald Trump entered the platform in the atmosphere more than a decade ago is

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that it's acceptable for your political candidate to use an expletive in their ad.

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Even if it's bleeped out as a way of showing their rawness, their approachability, the

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way that normal people speak at maybe not the dinner table, but at least at the bar with

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friends.

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I think there's a sense of that does make them more real in the same way that Tony Evers

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has been let off the hook time and time again for swearing over and over because he seems

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like this kind old man.

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And when he says that he really means it, and if someone else says it, oh, that's course

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and disgust.

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So it's definitely a change in that atmosphere, but it also goes back to the original question

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we have.

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This is a nicely themed episode, Sean, of the establishment versus the rage.

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If Rodriguez does represent the establishment in the center, she is the lieutenant governor

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at this point, but she's the one showing a little more flair, a little more fight with

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the words that she's dropping off the top and talking about she'll fight for you.

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She's definitely reaching out to bring the rest of that democratic primary audience over

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to her to say, I'm not just the person that is the establishment and that I'm the

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sitting lieutenant governor and the first person to enter the race.

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I'm also the person that will swear and fight for you.

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The other person likes to swear a lot in this race, Francesca Hong, she's got a history

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of dropping a few F bombs out there.

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So I think that shows this broad spectrum and this interest in these two different categories

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of voters.

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Yeah, I mean, I'm reminded that Francesca Hong in, I believe her introductory speech

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in the assembly dropped an F bomb and in her final speech in the assembly, if you ever

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had a chance to see that, she just let one linger as she forbid we're farewell to

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her colleagues.

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And plenty in between.

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Those weren't the only two.

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No, they're not.

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I think it's expected.

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I mean, I think it's expected that in today's politics right now, I think Democrats are

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so mad at President Trump that you have to show in your ads that you're not just like

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an old time Democrat that you're going to get up there and fight, fight, fight.

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I mean, that is the word.

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And again, that you are not sort of part of this establishment that people are so angry

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with and do see as, you know, too moderate or too incremental.

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And so they don't want these sort of consultant polished candidates, right?

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They want people who are more real.

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That's certainly part of the appeal of Hong.

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I keep hearing that from voters who support her is that she seems like she is who she's

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always been in the same way that you kind of hear about Bernie Sanders.

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And you know, it's hard this week to talk about politics without mentioning sort of

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the Graham Plattner situation in Maine, but one of the kind of series of reactions

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to that has been now that he's dropped out, the progressive wing saying, okay, but voters

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clearly wanted his politics, if not sort of all of the other things that went along

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with it.

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So they're waiting to see whether, you know, the Democratic Party, if they try to shoehorn

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in a more establishment sort of candidate.

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And so I think we're seeing these like real fights.

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And so Wisconsin, I think, will be another kind of bellwether, maybe not in the sort

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of fireworks and really scandalous way of what's going on in Maine, but I think

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that we're having sort of our own version of that play out right here.

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Yeah.

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I mean, I think nationalize or elsewhere right now, but over the next month, we are going

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to have a real debate among Democrats here about what it means to be their party in

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2026.

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What about Mandela Barnes as we kind of look at other advertising in this race?

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He is one of the other candidates who at least through his own money and through that

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outside money has been up on the air, right?

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He's gotten out there that it's hard to figure out if he's rerunning his Senate race and

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living off that experience of like, I'm the guy you remember, you liked me before.

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I got the most votes of anyone who's lost a US Senate race.

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I should have won, but I was the only one that lost to an incumbent.

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Or if he's running a new race, but it doesn't feel like there's a different message than

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there was before.

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So he's definitely running on that platform.

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And the question is, where does he fall within these frameworks we've talked about

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because he's got establishment history.

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He's also got very progressive history.

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The question is, does he carry through to voters to say, no, I'm the best of both worlds.

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And how much does that loss in the Senate race still linger over the top of them?

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His opponents have used it against them on the campaign trail.

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It does seem like when he got into the race, his message was, I am the front runner here.

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You know, it's just a matter of time.

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I am going to set the agenda in this race and I'm focused on November.

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You're now starting to see Sarah Rodriguez make that same general argument.

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Look, these candidates are coming in endorsing me.

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The state party in these straw polls has been supporting me.

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But you know, we don't know.

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We don't know.

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Mandela Barnes did come in here with actual name recognition that nobody else could really

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match.

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And so we'll find out soon whether the other candidates have kind of cracked the consciousness

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of people who've been on their summer breaks here.

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And one thing that should also be noted is that while the Democrats are kind of working

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all of this out amongst themselves and we are devoting so much airtime to what they're

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talking about, Tom Tiffany essentially has the Republican field to himself.

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And so he just launched his own, his, I think, fourth ad campaign.

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And it shows him having a pancake breakfast.

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And it's like this very kind of wholesome, folksy, you know, all American, I'm a normal

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guy, you betcha, right?

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And because he kind of has the field to himself, he doesn't need to be kind of parsing those

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details.

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And I think it's really good for Republicans that Democrats are kind of out there splitting

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hairs in all of these different ways, splitting donors and right, splitting attention while

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Tom Tiffany can just sort of like have the field to himself.

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And so I think we're also going to see a real shift in dynamic after the primary because

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that's when all of these national Democratic groups, et cetera, will throw their weight

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behind one candidate and see if they can pick up, you know, whatever that is, six months,

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or six weeks, 80 weeks of momentum on top of everything that Tom Tiffany has essentially

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had since January.

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Yeah, you did see the Democratic governor's association through an affiliated group start

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running ads against him this week.

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But you're right.

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He has spent millions of dollars just painting himself as Mr. Wisconsin love pancakes, old

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fashions, just kind of like your neighbor, basically.

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What's that primary is done?

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There's just going to be an onslaught of money, though.

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We had to talk about the vice president coming to Wisconsin.

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He does that from time to time.

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Zach, why?

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It's not a presidential year.

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He wasn't in a swing district.

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What was he doing here?

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Well, any time a Republican comes to Milwaukee, they're there to raise money, first and foremost.

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The difference is he actually held an event open to the public on top of it during the

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Bush era.

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The Republicans coming in constantly is just they held a fundraiser in left town with

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the money, not with any ad recognition.

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But he's still here campaigning.

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He's campaigning for Tom Tiffany.

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He's campaigning for himself.

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No matter what Donald Trump thinks, he can't run for president again.

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And JD Vance wants to be the presumptive Republican nominee in 28.

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No one's is beyond looking two years ahead.

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That's actually a short window for them to be looking ahead.

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So this was entirely political, no matter what the platform on the stage said.

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Yeah, campaigning is kind of like exercise, right?

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Like even when you don't feel like doing it, it seems like candidates feel like they got

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to keep coming to these swing states, just kind of rinse and repeat.

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Anya, anything in the message, stand out, or just the visit as a whole, stand out to you

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about why JD Vance is here now?

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I mean, yeah, I think you can't in an election year ignore Wisconsin or other swing states.

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I think he was also campaigning for Derek Van Orden to say.

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And Brian's style, yep, the two kind of targeted Republicans in Wisconsin.

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Yeah.

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So just again, sort of bringing some national attention, some money, but also he had this

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message around fraud and rooting out fraud and sort of the federal government's response

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to fraud.

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And so I think this is a way in which we're seeing that concept emerge as an election

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year issue of sort of rooting out corruption and like they are going to be the honest and

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transparent arm of government, which is a sort of interesting tactic to take at a time

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that I think people are much more concerned about, you know, prices than necessarily

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the specter of fraud that again, sort of there's no evidence actually exists.

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All right.

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That's all the time we have for today.

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Thanks for joining us.

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Our colleague Rich Kramer will be back next week.

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This has been Inside Wisconsin Politics.

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Be sure to follow us on PBSWisconsin.org, WPR.org, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.

