WEBVTT 00:00.000 --> 00:02.000 You 00:30.000 --> 00:32.000 You 00:49.760 --> 00:55.520 So that big budget deal that got voted down in the Wisconsin legislature turns out it's really popular 00:56.240 --> 01:00.340 What can we make of that finding in the latest poll by Marquette University and 01:00.920 --> 01:06.600 Tom Tiffany has the Republican field largely to himself as your own for governor. We talk about his approach 01:06.880 --> 01:09.400 This is inside Wisconsin politics 01:13.600 --> 01:20.360 I'm Sean Johnson here with my colleagues Zach Schultz. I knew Van Wachtenunk and rich Kramer in Eau Claire. Hey everyone 01:20.720 --> 01:21.800 Hello 01:21.800 --> 01:23.080 And Sean 01:23.080 --> 01:30.280 So we have used the word rare to describe this budget surplus deal more than once in the last few weeks 01:30.280 --> 01:35.800 I mean, it's rare to see a Democratic governor and Republican leaders come together to negotiate something like this in an election year 01:35.800 --> 01:38.840 We're here to see this kind of bipartisan opposition 01:39.680 --> 01:41.680 Kind of backstabbing after the vote 01:42.480 --> 01:47.560 Rich I'd say it's rare to see this kind of a poll from 01:47.880 --> 01:54.080 Marquette University where you have such lopsided support in favor of any issue. What did Marquette find? 01:55.840 --> 01:58.360 So they found that among the 01:59.040 --> 02:00.140 454 02:00.140 --> 02:02.300 Wisconsin residents that they surveyed 02:03.560 --> 02:04.560 80% 02:04.560 --> 02:09.080 Said that the legislature should have passed the surplus spending deal and 02:09.840 --> 02:16.440 What's really striking to your point is that when you break that down by partisanship the numbers don't vary that much 02:16.600 --> 02:20.520 Among Republicans it was 77% who said that it should have passed 02:21.560 --> 02:26.280 Independence 81% Democrats 80% so that is a 02:26.680 --> 02:33.760 I mean, that's a strong majority of people cutting across all the partisan demographics who wanted to see this thing 02:34.360 --> 02:38.120 Get passed and the poll also asked questions about 02:39.680 --> 02:45.480 You know, are you gonna remember this in the fall, etc, etc, and some people said they will and 02:46.440 --> 02:51.160 it's just really fascinating I talked to Charles Franklin who's Marquette's pollster and 02:52.240 --> 02:59.040 He said he wanted to do this poll which is different than others because it was really interesting to him to see 02:59.160 --> 03:05.760 The bipartisan birth of this legislation and the bipartisan death of it. So he wanted to see where the public stood 03:06.840 --> 03:08.840 When you saw those numbers come out 03:09.400 --> 03:11.160 Zach Anya 03:11.160 --> 03:14.280 What stood out to you? I mean to me 03:14.280 --> 03:18.520 I think the obvious top line number four of five is is sort of eye-popping 03:18.520 --> 03:23.440 I would not have imagined that level of support for any bill that comes out of Wisconsin legislature 03:23.440 --> 03:26.120 Well, I would think there are two things that jumped out of me 03:26.120 --> 03:28.280 The first is we talked about it from the very beginning 03:28.280 --> 03:36.120 This was the definition of a bipartisan bill that the public has repeatedly said they want their lawmakers to do and two 03:36.120 --> 03:39.280 This is why we do not legislate by referendum 03:39.320 --> 03:46.480 The public will always support something that gives them money no matter the fiscal complications down the road and they hate nuance 03:46.840 --> 03:49.360 Most people in the state just want things done 03:50.120 --> 03:57.640 In a sane fashion. They don't like to get into the details of what will it mean for the structural deficit in two years that they're worried about their gas tank today 03:57.640 --> 03:59.440 So it's not if anything 03:59.440 --> 04:06.440 It's not surprising there weren't more people that wanted this deal done closer to 90% because it looked like a win-win for everybody 04:06.560 --> 04:13.680 But it is those little nitty details that the Democrats and some Republicans jumped on to say why this didn't get passed 04:14.000 --> 04:17.680 Anya, how about you? I mean to me this finding sort of 04:18.320 --> 04:22.760 puts the way that people reacted to this bill in kind of a new light 04:22.760 --> 04:29.440 You know, I remember asking you last week. Why would some Democrats not want to come out against this when other Democrats are 04:29.960 --> 04:32.000 Well, maybe we have a pretty good answer here 04:32.000 --> 04:37.080 Well, yeah, I think you know, we've talked about it as a messaging tool as well and there is to Zach's point 04:37.080 --> 04:40.760 There's like the nuanced messaging and the un-nuanced messaging and one of those 04:41.160 --> 04:46.960 Excuse me one of those is more is easier to resonate with voters and so you can kind of say 04:47.480 --> 04:49.120 Do you want money in your pocket or not? 04:49.120 --> 04:53.000 Do you want money for your schools or not and most people I think are going to say yes 04:53.000 --> 04:58.000 I was like money in my pocket. I would like money in my schools having the more complicated messaging 04:58.000 --> 05:03.000 You know, the opponents of the DR are the ones who are going to really have sort of their work cut out for them 05:03.000 --> 05:05.760 Because they have to kind of prove a negative and say well 05:05.760 --> 05:12.000 But if we had done this there would have been this deficit we would have had to live under you know austerity measures going forward 05:12.000 --> 05:16.280 That's a much more complicated thing than do you want 300 bucks in your bank account or not? 05:16.360 --> 05:20.720 Yeah, I will say that when I saw this poll my immediate thought was well 05:20.800 --> 05:26.840 You didn't tell them about the other side of this that if you do this thing you're gonna blow a 2.9 billion dollar hole in the budget 05:27.480 --> 05:32.440 Actually the the market did ask about that rich they they said in so many words 05:32.800 --> 05:36.200 You know that this could create budget issues down the road and you know 05:36.200 --> 05:38.720 Do you really want to do this now and the public said? 05:40.840 --> 05:42.120 They said we don't care 05:42.120 --> 05:44.200 I mean they might care but they said that 05:44.640 --> 05:52.640 We still think that it would be better to get this money to schools and to ourselves in the form of property tax relief 05:52.640 --> 05:55.760 and rebate checks 300 for single adults and 05:56.880 --> 05:58.880 tax filers and 05:59.280 --> 06:06.520 600 for married couples so they said it'd be better now than next year even considering the potential for a nearly a 06:06.880 --> 06:12.200 $3 billion budget deficit going into the next state budget and I also wanted to mention that 06:12.520 --> 06:16.280 It has been really interesting seeing the opposition 06:17.000 --> 06:24.560 Almost every major candidate in the brace for governor was against at Tom Tiffany on the Republican side and on the Democratic side 06:24.560 --> 06:30.580 The only Democrat who came out and said we should be supporting this is former Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation 06:31.560 --> 06:33.560 Director CEO 06:33.560 --> 06:38.640 Missy Hughes and so after the vote failed and especially after this 06:39.400 --> 06:43.320 Poll came out. She said see you know, this is why you know 06:43.400 --> 06:49.960 I want to get things done people want to get things done. So it's going to be interesting to see what if any ads 06:50.600 --> 06:52.600 campaign attack ads come from this because 06:53.320 --> 06:59.920 Essentially, you know, Tiffany would have to say they didn't pass the thing that I didn't support or vice versa 06:59.920 --> 07:05.120 You know, so it'll be really interesting to see if it if it plays into the campaigns much 07:05.120 --> 07:08.680 I also wonder if this was just another window into 07:09.320 --> 07:16.480 An issue that we already know is big and that is the cost of living people feel that cost of living and when you ask them 07:16.920 --> 07:21.880 Would you like a little help might sound like a little in terms of the state budget and 300 bucks? 07:21.880 --> 07:24.600 You know, you can say that's not gonna solve all the all their problems 07:25.000 --> 07:28.720 But the answer is a resounding yes when you ask that question 07:28.720 --> 07:34.360 It's the number one issue that people have been talking about for more than a year now affordability has been an issue 07:34.360 --> 07:36.600 It was an issue in the 24 presidential campaign 07:36.600 --> 07:41.400 So in some ways it's surprising that all these major candidates dropped the ball and Sean 07:41.400 --> 07:42.560 I'll turn around 07:42.560 --> 07:44.600 The point that Rich brought and brought back to you 07:44.600 --> 07:50.760 Which is it seems like a lot of these major candidates other than Missy Hughes have flubbed their chance to have themselves a really nice 07:50.760 --> 07:55.080 Issue to campaign on in the fall if there's anyone that would take back their 07:55.720 --> 08:00.480 Opposition, do you think there's one or two candidates that would be better off if they've been supportive? 08:01.320 --> 08:09.360 Maybe maybe I think for Democrats they have to focus on winning that primary and so in the moments after this thing was made public 08:10.120 --> 08:11.840 They had to decide 08:11.840 --> 08:17.880 What is the left position and how close do I want to get to that and they made those calculations? 08:17.880 --> 08:20.480 You know, I think in hindsight seeing an 80% issue 08:21.080 --> 08:24.900 Maybe you would want to be on the side of the 80% especially when Democrats and 08:25.580 --> 08:28.060 Independence basically feel the same way about that stuff 08:28.060 --> 08:32.860 I think it's an open question though about whether or not we've talked about this before about whether or not 08:32.860 --> 08:35.260 They'll pay the price for this in November 08:35.620 --> 08:37.620 I we should say 08:37.620 --> 08:44.260 You know voters were asked about that Rich and and whether or not they'll be thinking about this as they voted to remember 08:44.260 --> 08:46.100 How important is it to them? 08:46.100 --> 08:48.100 What they say there? 08:48.740 --> 08:49.900 So 08:49.900 --> 08:53.420 73% of the respondents said that this 08:53.940 --> 09:03.180 You know where candidates stood on this them opposing this legislation will be either somewhat or very important to them come November 09:03.180 --> 09:06.860 And I asked Charles Franklin about this, you know because in in our world 09:07.900 --> 09:13.580 In November might as well be three years away in terms of how fast things can change on the campaign trail 09:14.220 --> 09:22.340 And he said well people might not remember individual votes on this specific bill, but to Zach's point Franklin said that 09:23.020 --> 09:28.260 Cost of living affordability property tax of school funding have been and will likely 09:29.580 --> 09:34.780 Continue to be top of mind for them. Yeah, I'm tempted to say I don't believe you voters 09:34.780 --> 09:42.500 You know something else is gonna come along between now and November, but still that is a pretty overwhelming finding from people right now saying 09:42.740 --> 09:44.740 Yeah, I'm gonna remember this 09:44.740 --> 09:50.060 How about the candidates for governor specifically though because that was one where I thought the findings for a little 09:50.340 --> 09:52.660 Squish year more. This is more the Wisconsin 09:52.660 --> 09:58.900 I know when people are presented with this idea of whether or not they thought it was wrong for Tom tiffany 09:58.980 --> 10:03.180 To take a stand against this or for other Democratic candidates to take a stand against this 10:04.580 --> 10:07.540 More is closer to 50 50 right you had 10:08.500 --> 10:14.140 It seems like Democrats and Republicans may be willing to give their candidate the benefit of the doubt 10:14.460 --> 10:18.300 If you hear the right messaging between now and November on you 10:18.540 --> 10:20.540 Yeah, you know one of the sort of 10:21.020 --> 10:27.260 Upsetting truths for those of us who really care about facts and details in the public, you know media world is that voters? 10:27.260 --> 10:28.780 Don't really care about those things right? 10:28.780 --> 10:35.260 They care about sort of feeling heard and feeling considered and so one of the things that you know candidates need to do right now is 10:35.740 --> 10:40.180 Present that they take people's concerns seriously. They take the affordability concerns seriously 10:40.180 --> 10:46.940 They take the school funding concerns seriously and the kind of details of it are a lot less important to your everyday voter 10:46.940 --> 10:51.980 And so how do you kind of message that in a way that makes people feel heard and understood enough to want to check that 10:51.980 --> 10:59.100 Box at the ballot box rather than kind of getting into some of this infighting around the actual mechanisms at the Capitol by 10:59.100 --> 11:01.220 Which it could have or could have not occurred? 11:01.220 --> 11:07.500 I think you've brought up a really important element and that is that feeds into the cynicism of some people out there 11:07.500 --> 11:09.780 And the question for every midterm is turnout 11:10.460 --> 11:14.060 Presidential elections will always have high turnout just because there's so much attention 11:14.300 --> 11:19.980 Midterms the candidate success rises and falls with who shows up and which party can get their people out 11:19.980 --> 11:21.980 So if there are voters 11:22.340 --> 11:28.700 Independents or moderates on either side who feel like they're not being heard by their politicians because both sides 11:28.900 --> 11:34.700 But all the candidates in front of them said no, I'd rather do it my way later on you don't need anything right now 11:34.700 --> 11:38.300 You can just wait that may feed into them saying well forget it 11:38.300 --> 11:42.540 I'm just gonna tune out none of you deserve my vote and that could impact turnout 11:42.740 --> 11:48.300 Who were those voters more likely to be people's persuadable by which side could they have gone to if they vote at all? 11:48.300 --> 11:55.020 That is a big factor when you see the potential of this midterm with wave elections and people feeling upset and angry 11:55.020 --> 11:59.060 Some of them just tune out and they are votes that are not even counted at all because they never show up 11:59.700 --> 12:02.900 So let's talk about one of the candidates for governor in a little more 12:03.500 --> 12:09.020 Detail here Tom Tiffany had a forum in Madison on the day that this poll came out 12:09.060 --> 12:12.260 So it was a few hours after the the poll had been out there 12:12.500 --> 12:17.700 Essentially he'd seen the answers to the test by then and he knew where the public stood on this issue 12:18.260 --> 12:20.820 Tom Tiffany was asked on yet at this forum 12:21.540 --> 12:26.660 You know do you stand by your comments earlier that you oppose this deal? 12:26.660 --> 12:29.180 What did he have to say he stands by those? 12:29.700 --> 12:34.780 But again, you know like needing to thread that needle of but yes, I want to fund schools 12:34.780 --> 12:37.900 Yes, I think that people need you know more money in their pockets 12:37.900 --> 12:40.540 I just don't think that this was the right deal for that 12:40.540 --> 12:43.580 And so again, he got kind of squishy on details 12:43.580 --> 12:49.420 So he talked about he believes basically every penny of the surplus needs to go back into people's pockets 12:49.500 --> 12:56.580 This would have obviously split the the surplus between school funding and some of those rebates and then things like no tax on tips 12:56.860 --> 13:01.460 He then didn't really have a proposal for how he would return that money to the taxpayers 13:01.460 --> 13:06.460 And he didn't really have details on how he would then boost school funding because of course 13:06.460 --> 13:10.420 That is the other kind of half of the deal, but he said he really cares about that and 13:10.980 --> 13:13.700 You know stay tuned for his first budget as governor 13:13.700 --> 13:19.100 So it was a way of I think trying to thread that needle of I didn't support it because it didn't do enough for you 13:19.100 --> 13:22.380 The voter vote for me and I'll make it happen 13:22.380 --> 13:25.420 I will find a way to balance the budget and find a way to put money in your pockets 13:25.420 --> 13:28.620 What did he describe the projected surplus as at this forum? 13:28.620 --> 13:30.980 I believe he said it was Madison math to try to 13:31.420 --> 13:35.620 If there was going to be a deficit because of how you spend money that that is Madison math 13:35.620 --> 13:40.180 And he's going to do sort of family checkbook math, which is how you balance the budget 13:40.180 --> 13:43.700 So again a lot of sort of talking points not a lot of specifics 13:43.900 --> 13:44.380 Yeah 13:44.380 --> 13:47.420 I would say in terms of the the Madison math versus the family math 13:47.420 --> 13:52.780 It is it is basically like assuming your family is not going to get a raise in the next couple years 13:52.780 --> 13:55.620 And this is what would happen if you didn't you would run out of money 13:56.780 --> 14:03.260 At this forum hosted by WIS politics in Madison Tom Tiffany was also given an open invitation 14:03.980 --> 14:10.340 To show where he disagrees with President Donald Trump one of those questions was about whether he'd support this 14:10.860 --> 14:16.460 $1.8 billion pot of money that Trump's administration has dubbed the anti-weaponization fund 14:16.620 --> 14:21.700 That's the one the Democrats worry could be used to compensate people like the January 6th defendants 14:22.060 --> 14:24.060 Here's what Tom Tiffany had to say 14:24.700 --> 14:27.540 So I'm still studying the details in regards to that 14:27.540 --> 14:32.860 I haven't I'm asking the administration to give us more as far as how exactly they 14:33.340 --> 14:34.940 expect to 14:34.940 --> 14:36.380 implement this I 14:36.380 --> 14:38.380 think one of the 14:38.380 --> 14:41.140 Just one thought that I have in regards to it is that 14:42.620 --> 14:45.180 You know, maybe some people are due compensation 14:46.060 --> 14:52.300 So Zach this is a 50 50 state and Tom Tiffany has the luxury of not running in a big 14:52.620 --> 14:54.620 Competitive Republican primary right now 14:55.140 --> 15:00.180 One could argue that this would be a chance for him to say this is where I differ from the president 15:00.900 --> 15:02.900 Why don't we hear that from him? 15:02.900 --> 15:09.220 You see really hasn't differed from the president on most issues since the president has come into power and since Tom Tiffany's been in Congress 15:09.220 --> 15:14.300 They've been very closely associated and that's not just Tom Tiffany's person belief 15:14.300 --> 15:21.580 That's him representing his congressional district the seventh is the most MAGA red of all of the Republican districts throughout the state 15:21.780 --> 15:24.700 So yes, there's a political logic that comes with well 15:24.700 --> 15:29.500 He doesn't have a Republican primary to worry about so he already has Trump's endorsement the party's endorsement 15:29.500 --> 15:31.500 So he can afford to split from Trump 15:31.500 --> 15:37.660 It's not the same as some of these primaries we've seen around the country where everyone's desperately clinging to try and get Trump to 15:37.660 --> 15:41.420 Give him their blessing so they can win a primary. He's already got that 15:41.420 --> 15:48.660 So I think this clearly shows and his prior statements and a lot of these similar issues about the 2020 election and election fraud and 15:49.060 --> 15:54.980 Conspiracies clearly shows this is who he is and this is has been who he is all along in Congress 15:54.980 --> 15:58.940 This really isn't any different from the Tom Tiffany. We've been covering for all these years 15:59.100 --> 16:05.580 I think there may be some Republicans who wish it was different because now he's in a more widespread political spotlight 16:05.580 --> 16:10.860 And the little higher stakes with the gubernatorial election, but it's not really a change from who he's always been 16:11.780 --> 16:16.060 Rich we've had a the benefit of a few days since that forum 16:16.060 --> 16:19.820 But he was he covered a lot there in this forum by West politics 16:20.500 --> 16:26.940 What were some people in his own party saying about how that went for him and kind of how he maneuvered around these questions? 16:29.020 --> 16:32.060 So through my trolling of social media 16:33.020 --> 16:36.540 Research it's research trolling is something else. That's right research 16:37.580 --> 16:40.100 I saw a few 16:40.940 --> 16:45.380 Conservatives Republicans and even one conservative website 16:46.180 --> 16:50.700 Say this was an enforced error. He does he shouldn't be talking about 2020 16:50.700 --> 16:55.300 He needs to talk about the future and what he's going to do and also to the 16:56.180 --> 17:00.380 Surplus bill and his opposition to that they said a lot of people said that was another 17:01.380 --> 17:05.540 Unforced error and you know, there's this race on to 17:06.100 --> 17:10.340 For every candidate to define themselves before they're defined by the other parties 17:10.340 --> 17:13.540 So some Republicans think that Tiffany needs to do a better job of that 17:14.420 --> 17:20.300 Anya one thing that stood out to you. I remember when we were talking about what went on at this forum is you said 17:21.020 --> 17:24.100 He basically covered a lot of ground and said 17:25.060 --> 17:29.100 Very little about the details would it be that be an accurate summation of what you saw? 17:29.100 --> 17:29.860 I think that's right 17:29.860 --> 17:31.140 And you know to be clear 17:31.140 --> 17:38.460 It's not unusual for a politician in an election year to kind of go broad strokes big picture and not necessarily settle on the details 17:38.620 --> 17:39.660 But I think again 17:39.660 --> 17:42.500 It speaks to this thing that we've been talking about this whole show about 17:42.540 --> 17:46.460 How do you kind of land a message without getting caught up in these details? 17:46.460 --> 17:52.820 And I wonder to what extent because he doesn't have to you distinguish himself in a primary the way that the Democratic candidates do 17:53.060 --> 17:54.700 whether he just kind of 17:54.700 --> 18:00.820 Wants to appeal to people who just want a more conservative person in office people who you know 18:00.820 --> 18:08.500 For whom his sort of Northwoods background is more appealing and and is maybe relying on some a level of infighting from the Democrats 18:08.500 --> 18:12.020 And therefore he doesn't really need to make a case in that traditional sense 18:12.020 --> 18:15.980 He doesn't need to explain in great detail how he would balance that budget 18:16.140 --> 18:21.020 He can kind of go a little bit on on vibes and hope that that'll carry him through November 18:21.020 --> 18:25.420 Maybe at a forum in Madison. He has at luxury. I did check before you recorded today 18:25.420 --> 18:28.020 And he has a couple campaign ads on YouTube Zach 18:28.740 --> 18:34.860 Seven million views and four million views where he talks about basically being a Wisconsin guy and a damn tender 18:34.860 --> 18:40.180 It seems like that may reach more people and that is his background. He started out running a small business 18:40.180 --> 18:46.940 He's tended the damn and that's what he's gonna run on is that folksy Northwoods attitude widespread the inside with Johnson politics 18:46.940 --> 18:48.940 That's the Madison math. He's not worried about 18:49.500 --> 18:52.540 Well, that's all the time we have for today. Thanks for joining us 18:52.540 --> 18:57.540 This has been inside Wisconsin politics be sure to follow us on PBS Wisconsin.org 18:57.980 --> 19:01.180 WPR.org YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts 19:10.780 --> 19:13.820 I was trying to say the title of the podcast at the end there