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You

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You

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So that big budget deal that got voted down in the Wisconsin legislature turns out it's really popular

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What can we make of that finding in the latest poll by Marquette University and

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Tom Tiffany has the Republican field largely to himself as your own for governor. We talk about his approach

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This is inside Wisconsin politics

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I'm Sean Johnson here with my colleagues Zach Schultz. I knew Van Wachtenunk and rich Kramer in Eau Claire. Hey everyone

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Hello

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And Sean

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So we have used the word rare to describe this budget surplus deal more than once in the last few weeks

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I mean, it's rare to see a Democratic governor and Republican leaders come together to negotiate something like this in an election year

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We're here to see this kind of bipartisan opposition

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Kind of backstabbing after the vote

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Rich I'd say it's rare to see this kind of a poll from

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Marquette University where you have such lopsided support in favor of any issue. What did Marquette find?

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So they found that among the

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454

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Wisconsin residents that they surveyed

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80%

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Said that the legislature should have passed the surplus spending deal and

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What's really striking to your point is that when you break that down by partisanship the numbers don't vary that much

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Among Republicans it was 77% who said that it should have passed

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Independence 81% Democrats 80% so that is a

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I mean, that's a strong majority of people cutting across all the partisan demographics who wanted to see this thing

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Get passed and the poll also asked questions about

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You know, are you gonna remember this in the fall, etc, etc, and some people said they will and

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it's just really fascinating I talked to Charles Franklin who's Marquette's pollster and

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He said he wanted to do this poll which is different than others because it was really interesting to him to see

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The bipartisan birth of this legislation and the bipartisan death of it. So he wanted to see where the public stood

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When you saw those numbers come out

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Zach Anya

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What stood out to you? I mean to me

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I think the obvious top line number four of five is is sort of eye-popping

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I would not have imagined that level of support for any bill that comes out of Wisconsin legislature

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Well, I would think there are two things that jumped out of me

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The first is we talked about it from the very beginning

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This was the definition of a bipartisan bill that the public has repeatedly said they want their lawmakers to do and two

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This is why we do not legislate by referendum

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The public will always support something that gives them money no matter the fiscal complications down the road and they hate nuance

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Most people in the state just want things done

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In a sane fashion. They don't like to get into the details of what will it mean for the structural deficit in two years that they're worried about their gas tank today

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So it's not if anything

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It's not surprising there weren't more people that wanted this deal done closer to 90% because it looked like a win-win for everybody

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But it is those little nitty details that the Democrats and some Republicans jumped on to say why this didn't get passed

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Anya, how about you? I mean to me this finding sort of

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puts the way that people reacted to this bill in kind of a new light

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You know, I remember asking you last week. Why would some Democrats not want to come out against this when other Democrats are

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Well, maybe we have a pretty good answer here

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Well, yeah, I think you know, we've talked about it as a messaging tool as well and there is to Zach's point

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There's like the nuanced messaging and the un-nuanced messaging and one of those

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Excuse me one of those is more is easier to resonate with voters and so you can kind of say

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Do you want money in your pocket or not?

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Do you want money for your schools or not and most people I think are going to say yes

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I was like money in my pocket. I would like money in my schools having the more complicated messaging

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You know, the opponents of the DR are the ones who are going to really have sort of their work cut out for them

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Because they have to kind of prove a negative and say well

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But if we had done this there would have been this deficit we would have had to live under you know austerity measures going forward

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That's a much more complicated thing than do you want 300 bucks in your bank account or not?

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Yeah, I will say that when I saw this poll my immediate thought was well

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You didn't tell them about the other side of this that if you do this thing you're gonna blow a 2.9 billion dollar hole in the budget

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Actually the the market did ask about that rich they they said in so many words

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You know that this could create budget issues down the road and you know

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Do you really want to do this now and the public said?

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They said we don't care

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I mean they might care but they said that

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We still think that it would be better to get this money to schools and to ourselves in the form of property tax relief

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and rebate checks 300 for single adults and

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tax filers and

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600 for married couples so they said it'd be better now than next year even considering the potential for a nearly a

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$3 billion budget deficit going into the next state budget and I also wanted to mention that

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It has been really interesting seeing the opposition

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Almost every major candidate in the brace for governor was against at Tom Tiffany on the Republican side and on the Democratic side

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The only Democrat who came out and said we should be supporting this is former Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation

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Director CEO

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Missy Hughes and so after the vote failed and especially after this

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Poll came out. She said see you know, this is why you know

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I want to get things done people want to get things done. So it's going to be interesting to see what if any ads

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campaign attack ads come from this because

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Essentially, you know, Tiffany would have to say they didn't pass the thing that I didn't support or vice versa

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You know, so it'll be really interesting to see if it if it plays into the campaigns much

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I also wonder if this was just another window into

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An issue that we already know is big and that is the cost of living people feel that cost of living and when you ask them

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Would you like a little help might sound like a little in terms of the state budget and 300 bucks?

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You know, you can say that's not gonna solve all the all their problems

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But the answer is a resounding yes when you ask that question

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It's the number one issue that people have been talking about for more than a year now affordability has been an issue

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It was an issue in the 24 presidential campaign

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So in some ways it's surprising that all these major candidates dropped the ball and Sean

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I'll turn around

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The point that Rich brought and brought back to you

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Which is it seems like a lot of these major candidates other than Missy Hughes have flubbed their chance to have themselves a really nice

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Issue to campaign on in the fall if there's anyone that would take back their

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Opposition, do you think there's one or two candidates that would be better off if they've been supportive?

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Maybe maybe I think for Democrats they have to focus on winning that primary and so in the moments after this thing was made public

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They had to decide

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What is the left position and how close do I want to get to that and they made those calculations?

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You know, I think in hindsight seeing an 80% issue

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Maybe you would want to be on the side of the 80% especially when Democrats and

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Independence basically feel the same way about that stuff

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I think it's an open question though about whether or not we've talked about this before about whether or not

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They'll pay the price for this in November

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I we should say

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You know voters were asked about that Rich and and whether or not they'll be thinking about this as they voted to remember

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How important is it to them?

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What they say there?

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So

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73% of the respondents said that this

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You know where candidates stood on this them opposing this legislation will be either somewhat or very important to them come November

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And I asked Charles Franklin about this, you know because in in our world

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In November might as well be three years away in terms of how fast things can change on the campaign trail

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And he said well people might not remember individual votes on this specific bill, but to Zach's point Franklin said that

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Cost of living affordability property tax of school funding have been and will likely

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Continue to be top of mind for them. Yeah, I'm tempted to say I don't believe you voters

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You know something else is gonna come along between now and November, but still that is a pretty overwhelming finding from people right now saying

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Yeah, I'm gonna remember this

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How about the candidates for governor specifically though because that was one where I thought the findings for a little

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Squish year more. This is more the Wisconsin

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I know when people are presented with this idea of whether or not they thought it was wrong for Tom tiffany

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To take a stand against this or for other Democratic candidates to take a stand against this

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More is closer to 50 50 right you had

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It seems like Democrats and Republicans may be willing to give their candidate the benefit of the doubt

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If you hear the right messaging between now and November on you

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Yeah, you know one of the sort of

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Upsetting truths for those of us who really care about facts and details in the public, you know media world is that voters?

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Don't really care about those things right?

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They care about sort of feeling heard and feeling considered and so one of the things that you know candidates need to do right now is

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Present that they take people's concerns seriously. They take the affordability concerns seriously

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They take the school funding concerns seriously and the kind of details of it are a lot less important to your everyday voter

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And so how do you kind of message that in a way that makes people feel heard and understood enough to want to check that

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Box at the ballot box rather than kind of getting into some of this infighting around the actual mechanisms at the Capitol by

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Which it could have or could have not occurred?

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I think you've brought up a really important element and that is that feeds into the cynicism of some people out there

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And the question for every midterm is turnout

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Presidential elections will always have high turnout just because there's so much attention

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Midterms the candidate success rises and falls with who shows up and which party can get their people out

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So if there are voters

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Independents or moderates on either side who feel like they're not being heard by their politicians because both sides

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But all the candidates in front of them said no, I'd rather do it my way later on you don't need anything right now

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You can just wait that may feed into them saying well forget it

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I'm just gonna tune out none of you deserve my vote and that could impact turnout

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Who were those voters more likely to be people's persuadable by which side could they have gone to if they vote at all?

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That is a big factor when you see the potential of this midterm with wave elections and people feeling upset and angry

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Some of them just tune out and they are votes that are not even counted at all because they never show up

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So let's talk about one of the candidates for governor in a little more

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Detail here Tom Tiffany had a forum in Madison on the day that this poll came out

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So it was a few hours after the the poll had been out there

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Essentially he'd seen the answers to the test by then and he knew where the public stood on this issue

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Tom Tiffany was asked on yet at this forum

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You know do you stand by your comments earlier that you oppose this deal?

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What did he have to say he stands by those?

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But again, you know like needing to thread that needle of but yes, I want to fund schools

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Yes, I think that people need you know more money in their pockets

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I just don't think that this was the right deal for that

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And so again, he got kind of squishy on details

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So he talked about he believes basically every penny of the surplus needs to go back into people's pockets

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This would have obviously split the the surplus between school funding and some of those rebates and then things like no tax on tips

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He then didn't really have a proposal for how he would return that money to the taxpayers

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And he didn't really have details on how he would then boost school funding because of course

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That is the other kind of half of the deal, but he said he really cares about that and

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You know stay tuned for his first budget as governor

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So it was a way of I think trying to thread that needle of I didn't support it because it didn't do enough for you

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The voter vote for me and I'll make it happen

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I will find a way to balance the budget and find a way to put money in your pockets

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What did he describe the projected surplus as at this forum?

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I believe he said it was Madison math to try to

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If there was going to be a deficit because of how you spend money that that is Madison math

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And he's going to do sort of family checkbook math, which is how you balance the budget

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So again a lot of sort of talking points not a lot of specifics

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Yeah

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I would say in terms of the the Madison math versus the family math

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It is it is basically like assuming your family is not going to get a raise in the next couple years

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And this is what would happen if you didn't you would run out of money

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At this forum hosted by WIS politics in Madison Tom Tiffany was also given an open invitation

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To show where he disagrees with President Donald Trump one of those questions was about whether he'd support this

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$1.8 billion pot of money that Trump's administration has dubbed the anti-weaponization fund

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That's the one the Democrats worry could be used to compensate people like the January 6th defendants

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Here's what Tom Tiffany had to say

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So I'm still studying the details in regards to that

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I haven't I'm asking the administration to give us more as far as how exactly they

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expect to

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implement this I

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think one of the

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Just one thought that I have in regards to it is that

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You know, maybe some people are due compensation

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So Zach this is a 50 50 state and Tom Tiffany has the luxury of not running in a big

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Competitive Republican primary right now

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One could argue that this would be a chance for him to say this is where I differ from the president

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Why don't we hear that from him?

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You see really hasn't differed from the president on most issues since the president has come into power and since Tom Tiffany's been in Congress

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They've been very closely associated and that's not just Tom Tiffany's person belief

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That's him representing his congressional district the seventh is the most MAGA red of all of the Republican districts throughout the state

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So yes, there's a political logic that comes with well

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He doesn't have a Republican primary to worry about so he already has Trump's endorsement the party's endorsement

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So he can afford to split from Trump

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It's not the same as some of these primaries we've seen around the country where everyone's desperately clinging to try and get Trump to

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Give him their blessing so they can win a primary. He's already got that

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So I think this clearly shows and his prior statements and a lot of these similar issues about the 2020 election and election fraud and

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Conspiracies clearly shows this is who he is and this is has been who he is all along in Congress

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This really isn't any different from the Tom Tiffany. We've been covering for all these years

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I think there may be some Republicans who wish it was different because now he's in a more widespread political spotlight

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And the little higher stakes with the gubernatorial election, but it's not really a change from who he's always been

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Rich we've had a the benefit of a few days since that forum

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But he was he covered a lot there in this forum by West politics

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What were some people in his own party saying about how that went for him and kind of how he maneuvered around these questions?

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So through my trolling of social media

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Research it's research trolling is something else. That's right research

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I saw a few

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Conservatives Republicans and even one conservative website

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Say this was an enforced error. He does he shouldn't be talking about 2020

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He needs to talk about the future and what he's going to do and also to the

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Surplus bill and his opposition to that they said a lot of people said that was another

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Unforced error and you know, there's this race on to

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For every candidate to define themselves before they're defined by the other parties

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So some Republicans think that Tiffany needs to do a better job of that

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Anya one thing that stood out to you. I remember when we were talking about what went on at this forum is you said

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He basically covered a lot of ground and said

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Very little about the details would it be that be an accurate summation of what you saw?

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I think that's right

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And you know to be clear

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It's not unusual for a politician in an election year to kind of go broad strokes big picture and not necessarily settle on the details

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But I think again

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It speaks to this thing that we've been talking about this whole show about

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How do you kind of land a message without getting caught up in these details?

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And I wonder to what extent because he doesn't have to you distinguish himself in a primary the way that the Democratic candidates do

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whether he just kind of

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Wants to appeal to people who just want a more conservative person in office people who you know

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For whom his sort of Northwoods background is more appealing and and is maybe relying on some a level of infighting from the Democrats

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And therefore he doesn't really need to make a case in that traditional sense

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He doesn't need to explain in great detail how he would balance that budget

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He can kind of go a little bit on on vibes and hope that that'll carry him through November

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Maybe at a forum in Madison. He has at luxury. I did check before you recorded today

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And he has a couple campaign ads on YouTube Zach

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Seven million views and four million views where he talks about basically being a Wisconsin guy and a damn tender

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It seems like that may reach more people and that is his background. He started out running a small business

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He's tended the damn and that's what he's gonna run on is that folksy Northwoods attitude widespread the inside with Johnson politics

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That's the Madison math. He's not worried about

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Well, that's all the time we have for today. Thanks for joining us

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This has been inside Wisconsin politics be sure to follow us on PBS Wisconsin.org

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WPR.org YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts

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I was trying to say the title of the podcast at the end there

