WEBVTT 00:00.000 --> 00:27.800 It's been a week since the budget surplus deal fell apart at the capital and we're still 00:27.800 --> 00:32.680 making sense of the fallout. Today we talk about how it's playing out in the governor's race, more 00:32.680 --> 00:36.840 insight on the talks that failed, and more information about what it would mean for the 00:36.840 --> 00:46.520 state's bottom line. This is Inside Wisconsin Politics. I'm Sean Johnson here with my colleagues 00:46.520 --> 00:53.720 Anya Ben-Wagtendank and Zach Schultz. Hello. So Zach, we pretty much ran out of time last week talking 00:53.720 --> 00:58.760 about this deal because there are so many facets to it and so many players, so many motivations to 00:58.760 --> 01:05.000 discuss. We barely touched on part of it, which is how it's being received in the Democratic primary 01:05.000 --> 01:09.960 for governor, which is just as well because we had more reactions since that show and since the deal 01:09.960 --> 01:16.440 fell apart. I guess if you had to sum it up, this big Democratic primary, how are the candidates 01:16.440 --> 01:20.920 dealing with this big deal that they weren't really expecting to come along? Well, it was 01:20.920 --> 01:25.320 interesting to watch the reactions as it was unfolding when I think most people probably thought 01:25.320 --> 01:31.240 this was going to pass. In the days leading up to it, we saw kind of, I saw three different 01:31.240 --> 01:37.160 responses. There were two very clear no's from Francesca and Hong and from Calder 01:37.160 --> 01:41.080 Roy's, both running in a more progressive stance. The two only that actually got to vote on this 01:41.080 --> 01:46.760 because they're still in the legislature. Then we saw Missy Hughes come out absolutely all for it. 01:46.840 --> 01:51.560 One of the only ones to say, this is a good deal and it makes sense to try and get this done. 01:51.560 --> 01:55.560 Perhaps a way to try and give herself a little attention in a crowded race word. Everyone's 01:55.560 --> 02:00.520 trying to struggle for oxygen. Then we saw kind of a muddled middle of a lot of candidates that 02:00.520 --> 02:04.440 really were like, I really don't like the process. This may not be the best deal, but it was clear 02:04.440 --> 02:10.440 they were not ready to come out against it. Then it failed. Then the knives started coming out 02:10.440 --> 02:14.920 afterwards. What we've seen since then has been different, but it felt like those lanes were kind 02:14.920 --> 02:20.440 of decided in the lead up to it. Then afterwards, they exposed a little more of how they were 02:20.440 --> 02:24.360 feeling about it and who they were ready to blame more specifically for how it weighed apart. 02:25.160 --> 02:31.800 How are you processing this, I guess, a variety of reactions all coming from these candidates at 02:31.800 --> 02:37.240 once? In some ways, I think the bill was an election year messaging tool anyways for the people who 02:37.240 --> 02:42.360 negotiated it. All of a sudden, it presented an opportunity for people in this crowded primary 02:42.360 --> 02:46.840 who are not really all that distinguished. I still run into people who do not know that there 02:46.840 --> 02:53.160 is a governor's race this year. This is a way. Most people are not watching our show over here. 02:55.880 --> 02:59.720 This is an opportunity for those Democrats to try to message around 03:00.520 --> 03:05.320 school funding, property taxes, these really big election year issues and to try to stand 03:05.320 --> 03:09.080 out a little bit. Talk about trying to stand out. There are sort of degrees of 03:09.640 --> 03:15.560 no and degrees of yes. On degrees of no, Kilda Royce, I think we were just checking out our emails 03:15.560 --> 03:23.000 and she came out against this deal in less than two hours after it was made public. There's somebody 03:23.000 --> 03:27.320 who's trying to let people know, I'm definitely against this. She's got a vote on it one way or 03:27.320 --> 03:32.520 another. Might as well take a position, Francesca Hong, the same day. Then you've got the candidates 03:32.520 --> 03:36.920 as you alluded to, Joel Brennan, who worked for Tony Evers saying, I didn't like the process. 03:37.800 --> 03:43.080 Then some, I don't know exactly where they stand on the deal where they're just basically saying, 03:44.120 --> 03:51.560 it failed. We got to move on. Why would they give such a muddled answer as you call it? Why not 03:51.560 --> 03:56.040 take a position on this thing? I think because there was a lot to lose, not knowing how it was 03:56.040 --> 04:01.720 going to come out. Most of these people were not involved in any discussions. They probably did 04:01.720 --> 04:07.160 not know that they were even happening at this time. I think it probably was true that Kilda may 04:07.160 --> 04:11.960 not have known they were happening. Given how quickly she responded, it may have known that, 04:11.960 --> 04:17.240 hey, Senate Dems were not in the loop, which is ultimately what killed this. She had the most 04:17.240 --> 04:22.200 distinct opportunity to put her stamp on this entire process. As no matter what, she was the 04:22.200 --> 04:27.800 only one that was in the chamber where it could have passed that said no, that was not the deciding 04:27.800 --> 04:33.240 vote. But deciding vote adjacent in terms of being able to say, this is going down. I will not 04:33.240 --> 04:37.240 vote for it. And I stand with the rest of my colleagues. So there were definitely a lot of 04:37.240 --> 04:41.800 things to be gained for some of those people and being very clear. And there's a lot to lose. And 04:41.800 --> 04:45.320 so some of that is just the approach that some of these candidates have taken in this primary is 04:46.040 --> 04:51.000 cautious front runner or assumed front runner. And how close are they to Governor Evers to begin 04:51.000 --> 04:56.040 with? We've got multiple people have worked in his staff, two lieutenant governors, and then 04:56.040 --> 04:59.400 other people that are not close to the Evers administration at all. So they can be a little 04:59.400 --> 05:04.360 more freewheeling there. They're not hoping for, you know, if they win a primary, come close, 05:04.360 --> 05:09.480 if Evers bestowing, you know, any blessings upon them at the last minute, they can be farther apart. 05:09.480 --> 05:14.280 Yeah, he has said repeatedly, he's not going to endorse in this campaign. And he seems 05:15.880 --> 05:21.800 like unhappy with the candidates increasingly, especially as they kind of trash his deal, 05:21.800 --> 05:26.600 as they did this time around. Anya, I think what strikes me is that these candidates set 05:26.600 --> 05:31.640 out this campaign and they had a plan. They want to talk about certain messages. They want to talk 05:31.640 --> 05:38.120 about Donald Trump. They wanted to find themselves on their terms. And when the governor negotiates 05:38.120 --> 05:42.920 an agreement with Republican leaders, it kind of throws a wrench in those plans, doesn't it? 05:42.920 --> 05:47.560 Well, right. I mean, there's sort of policy and issues. And then there's politics. And this was a 05:47.640 --> 05:53.400 political week, right? This was all about these negotiations and kind of the powerful, 05:53.400 --> 05:58.440 the negotiations of power that were taking place. And so that's really different than the issue of 05:58.440 --> 06:03.160 property taxes, which nobody is going to go on record supporting high property taxes. 06:03.160 --> 06:07.400 Nobody, especially in the Democratic Party, is going to go on record not wanting to fully fund 06:07.400 --> 06:12.760 public schools. And so how do you kind of take a stance that allows you to be on sort of the 06:12.760 --> 06:18.120 right side of that politically? Well, then also taking part in the political maneuverings 06:18.120 --> 06:22.680 in the Capitol, which again, like normal people don't follow, don't really understand. They're 06:22.680 --> 06:27.560 just going to see what's on their mailers in a couple of months saying voted for or against 06:27.560 --> 06:31.800 money in your pocket or money for your schools. And so that's a really kind of complicated 06:31.800 --> 06:37.880 dance to be doing right now. And do you think that coming out in favor of the deal is 06:37.880 --> 06:43.480 Missy Hughes did, for example, is going to help you stand out in this crowded primary in a time 06:43.480 --> 06:48.280 when people are not necessarily paying attention to this race? Well, I will say this is probably 06:48.280 --> 06:51.800 the only time that we've talked about Missy Hughes and said her name more than once in a podcast. 06:51.800 --> 06:57.480 And for someone who has been polling in the low single digits, that matters. Not that we're going 06:57.480 --> 07:03.320 to sway the voting public, but getting your name out and taking a stance, I think, was a move for 07:03.400 --> 07:08.280 her to say no, I will stand up for something as opposed to like David Crowley, whose name we 07:08.280 --> 07:12.120 haven't mentioned yet. He's running right in the middle of that primary. We saw the releases he 07:12.120 --> 07:16.680 put out about this bill before and after. And I still don't know 100%, whether he liked it or 07:16.680 --> 07:21.240 didn't like it or was just kind of sitting in the middle on it. But Sean, I want to ask you about 07:21.240 --> 07:24.680 the money thing is we've seen the legislative fiscal bureau numbers. That was something that 07:24.680 --> 07:29.960 the Democrats put out there right away saying this was unsustainable. It wasn't real money. 07:29.960 --> 07:34.200 It would have set us up for a really bad budget. How much do you think played that 07:34.200 --> 07:38.840 worked at the time for them versus how much was it a convenient excuse for them afterwards 07:38.840 --> 07:44.280 when they really voted it down because of power maneuvers? Oh, it could be a mix of both. I mean, 07:44.280 --> 07:49.480 if you look at the fiscal bureau numbers, which Anya did a great story on yesterday, 07:50.600 --> 07:56.840 that's a pretty real concern, whether or not that was their primary concern for voting this 07:56.840 --> 08:02.520 thing down or what political calculations they made. I think when you're looking at a 2.95 08:02.520 --> 08:07.960 billion projected budget deficit at the end of the next two-year budget, not the one where you're 08:07.960 --> 08:13.560 now, but the one after. That feels real to me, Anya. I mean, just looking through those numbers. 08:13.560 --> 08:18.280 Right. And the sort of important caveat is that that number from the legislative fiscal bureau 08:18.280 --> 08:22.680 doesn't take into account the fact that we are in a period of sort of remarkable economic uncertainty 08:22.680 --> 08:27.720 right now. And so it says that we would have that deficit, that sort of almost $3 billion deficit 08:27.720 --> 08:32.280 were this to have passed. And that's not accounting for potential changes to tax revenue, 08:32.280 --> 08:36.360 to the fact that there's like a war going on right now that is affecting oil and gas prices, 08:36.360 --> 08:40.440 all these different things. And so from all of the Democrats who voted against it, and then also 08:40.440 --> 08:44.520 from the Republicans who voted against it, there was this concern about the cost of this thing, 08:45.080 --> 08:50.360 which was kind of nebulous. And so even with those kind of firmer numbers, it justifies, 08:50.360 --> 08:54.920 I think, what some of those lawmakers were saying on the floor. But it also kind of points to this, 08:55.880 --> 09:00.040 again, political, like, gamesmanship that we often see when it comes to appropriations, 09:00.040 --> 09:04.920 which is what is our money for? What is our state surplus for? Is it for things like this? 09:04.920 --> 09:10.040 Is it to have kind of in our back pockets? And so that was really the contours of the fight. 09:10.600 --> 09:16.200 You know, I think candidates come into office and they want to do things. And they can just 09:16.200 --> 09:23.080 imagine how nice it would be to do things if everything goes their way in 2027. And their party 09:23.080 --> 09:28.600 was in control of the Senate and who knows what else? And so probably they would like that money 09:28.600 --> 09:32.840 to spend on their priorities and don't want to come into that situation running a deficit. So, 09:34.040 --> 09:37.640 you know, people become more budget hawks kind of depending on the circumstances, 09:37.640 --> 09:43.640 I think, from time to time. I will say one thing that stood out to me this week is Tony Evers did 09:43.640 --> 09:50.200 an interview with WISN TV where, and we alluded to this a bit last week in terms of the way that 09:50.200 --> 09:55.720 the governor kind of pursued these negotiations, but he was straight up asked if he sought out 09:55.720 --> 10:02.520 Democratic votes on this bill. And he said, no, Zach, how do you do that in the Senate given the, 10:03.000 --> 10:08.040 you know, political breakdown there? I mean, I would call it political malpractice in the sense 10:08.040 --> 10:12.760 that anyone who looks at that, apparently he was told that he had the Republican votes alone to 10:12.840 --> 10:17.640 pass it in that chamber. One, it's surprising that he would count just on those, but especially 10:17.640 --> 10:22.360 given the two senators that we've talked about repeatedly in that chamber that have voted against 10:22.360 --> 10:27.640 every one of these proposals, including the last three budgets and senators, Nas and Kapigah, 10:27.640 --> 10:31.640 Nas is leaving. We talked about him last week. There's no way he's going to be a yes vote on 10:31.640 --> 10:36.760 this. No one would ever believe that. I don't care who you're talking to, but then that assumes 10:36.760 --> 10:40.760 that you're going to get Kapigah as well and not to not to count Senator Hutton, who's also 10:40.760 --> 10:44.760 leaving the chamber, who voted no in the end. I think they thought maybe more likely they could 10:44.760 --> 10:49.560 have gotten him, but Kapigah has been a no in the last couple of budgets. So those are really big 10:49.560 --> 10:55.320 assumptions at a time when you have Democrats over there. Why not reach out and say, hey, if we need 10:55.320 --> 11:00.280 you, will you be there? Because we mentioned a couple of names for Democrats, vulnerable Democrats 11:00.280 --> 11:03.960 that are up for election this session, and Jeff Smith, and why would you not reach out and say, 11:03.960 --> 11:07.960 hey, can we count on you if we need to? You don't even have to necessarily offer them anything, 11:07.960 --> 11:11.720 but clue them in and make them feel like they're part of the team. So the fact that he said he 11:11.720 --> 11:18.840 didn't, it seems really strange. Very cheeky ground to go in negotiations counting on 11:18.840 --> 11:25.240 one of those two lawmakers you just mentioned to vote for your deal. We did get a question from 11:25.240 --> 11:30.760 someone in our audience that feels timely right now. This came from a student at the University 11:30.760 --> 11:35.560 of Wisconsin Lacrosse, where they watch our show in their legislative process class. Here's her 11:35.560 --> 11:41.640 question about special sessions. My name is Katie Walker, and I'm studying political science 11:41.640 --> 11:46.920 at UW-O-Coffs. My question is, why have there been so many special sessions called by Governor 11:46.920 --> 11:51.800 Evers? And does this trend signal break down a normal legislative compromise, or is it simply 11:51.800 --> 11:58.200 a strategic political tool? All right, well, we have all covered our share of special sessions now, 11:58.200 --> 12:03.160 and so let's all just chime in on this. But Anya, you first, how would you answer this question 12:03.240 --> 12:07.240 about special sessions? I mean, again, I think that they are often a messaging tool, and especially 12:07.240 --> 12:11.320 in divided government, right, where Democrats are never going to get their bills on the floor 12:11.320 --> 12:16.760 while Republicans control it, or at least their sort of values first, their top priorities on the 12:16.760 --> 12:21.560 floor. This is a way for the Democratic governor to signal what is most important to him by calling 12:21.560 --> 12:25.960 these special sessions. And then also, if he does it on things that, again, are kind of widely 12:25.960 --> 12:31.880 popular no matter how you vote, he can force votes on certain issues. So he can, for example, he calls 12:31.960 --> 12:36.600 a special session a few years ago on child care, trying to force, you know, Republicans to vote 12:36.600 --> 12:41.080 in a way that could then get messaged as Republicans don't care whether you get child care. And so 12:41.080 --> 12:46.040 that's one use of it. But I will say I have only ever covered special sessions under divided government, 12:46.040 --> 12:50.280 I have only ever covered Evers special sessions. So I'm curious for you guys who have covered 12:50.840 --> 12:55.880 when Republicans controlled the legislature and the governor's office when they worked in tandem, 12:55.880 --> 12:58.520 the Walker years, what did special sessions look like then? 12:59.320 --> 13:05.000 Jack, I seem to remember a pretty big special session when Governor Scott Walker was sworn in. 13:05.000 --> 13:11.080 Actually, the day of his inauguration, he declared a special session on jobs, I think he called it. 13:11.080 --> 13:15.880 Yeah, that seemed to be pretty, pretty big. Some acts came out of that that still resonate with 13:15.880 --> 13:19.880 a lot of the public and may bring up some traumatic memories for a lot of people who marched around 13:19.880 --> 13:26.120 the Capitol during those act 10 protests. Yeah, in that era, I mean, we have to look back in 25 13:26.120 --> 13:31.160 years of my time covering this legislature. There has been one session in which there was truly 13:31.160 --> 13:34.680 divided government in the legislature in which Republicans held a chamber and the Democrats held 13:34.680 --> 13:40.120 a chamber. So most of the time of past two and a half decades, we've looked at this, there hasn't 13:40.120 --> 13:45.640 been compromise necessary in the legislature. It's come between the executive and the legislative 13:45.640 --> 13:51.480 branches. So special sessions are one way for a governor to draw attention to what they need to. 13:51.480 --> 13:55.480 And I asked Governor Evers about this a couple of years ago when he was calling him left and right. 13:55.480 --> 14:00.520 And he only has a couple opportunities to actually bring attention to what he wants. He can write a 14:00.520 --> 14:05.480 budget, which he knows will get immediately trashed. But at least he can write and introduce his values, 14:05.480 --> 14:09.720 his principles, and say this is what I would like to see happen. And then he can call special 14:09.720 --> 14:14.440 sessions. Other than that, that that is his only legal power to do something in the Capitol. 14:14.440 --> 14:17.160 The rest of the time, it's the bully pulpit and going around and talking to the media. 14:17.720 --> 14:23.000 You know, I think I would have answered Katie's question differently a few weeks ago than I would 14:23.000 --> 14:28.520 now. And that is to say that a few weeks ago, I said that special sessions from this governor 14:28.520 --> 14:34.680 are basically all about messaging, that they are all about forcing Republicans to take a position 14:34.680 --> 14:39.640 against his priorities or to get his priorities on the record. I would say this last special 14:39.640 --> 14:46.120 session that he called where he brought Republicans in to pass a deal he thought that they negotiated. 14:46.120 --> 14:51.320 That's kind of a special session is the founders intended or the framers of the state constitution 14:51.320 --> 14:57.880 would have intended where look, the regular sessions done or our calendar days are done. 14:57.880 --> 15:02.120 We have this big issue we want to deal with that we just ran out of time with. Let's let's agree 15:02.120 --> 15:07.160 to come back in for a special, special of the legislature. And it's more ceremonial, too. You 15:07.160 --> 15:12.360 had everybody actually in the building versus most special sessions like the one on gerrymandering, 15:12.360 --> 15:18.520 for example, that was for show. And by the way, they gabbled that out last Thursday kind of when 15:18.520 --> 15:22.440 nobody was paying attention. That one's done. That was one where the governor wanted to 15:22.440 --> 15:27.080 highlight an issue said let's end partisan gerrymandering and Republicans said we'll consider it. 15:27.960 --> 15:33.240 And not anymore. It's gabbled out. And the way that Republicans can respond to the governor 15:33.240 --> 15:36.520 trying to call attention to something through a special session is what's called a skeletal 15:36.520 --> 15:40.120 session in which two of them come in, they gavel it in, they gavel it out. They don't even 15:40.120 --> 15:44.280 have to bring everyone to do the thing. So that's the response to we want attention on this. 15:44.280 --> 15:48.280 You want attention? We'll give you an empty dark chamber. We literally won't turn the lights 15:48.280 --> 15:52.920 on. That's how little attention will pay to it. But it is all about politics at all. It is entirely 15:52.920 --> 15:57.240 about optics. This last one was a little different. And the thing that's probably deceiving to most 15:57.240 --> 16:01.640 people is when they're legally called special sessions when the governor calls them or extraordinary 16:01.640 --> 16:05.400 sessions when the legislature calls them. Those are just names. All it means it happens outside 16:05.400 --> 16:09.560 the regular calendar. Republicans two years ago declared the calendar was going to be done in 16:09.560 --> 16:14.360 March. So nine months to campaign. That's the only reason it's not regular session. It's 16:14.360 --> 16:20.200 special. But it was a special time in the Capitol that people will remember. Yes, they will. If you 16:20.200 --> 16:25.480 want to ask us a question about state government or politics, send us an email at inside wisconsin 16:25.480 --> 16:34.200 politics at wpr.org. Before we wrap up here, I did want to talk about the campaign for governor on 16:34.280 --> 16:40.120 the Republican side. We had a state GOP convention over this past weekend. Tom Tiffany is now the 16:40.120 --> 16:45.000 endorsed candidate. He doesn't have to worry about a primary the way that the candidates had to in 16:45.000 --> 16:52.760 2022. So he can focus on the general election now. And yet, Zach, we're talking about the 2020 16:52.760 --> 16:58.840 election here. What is Tom Tiffany talking about? He cannot get away from Trump's main grievance, 16:58.840 --> 17:04.360 which is the fact that he lost to Joe Biden in 2020. And because he still has such a powerful 17:04.360 --> 17:09.400 grip over the Republican Party nationally, which we just saw in Republican primaries in Kentucky and 17:09.400 --> 17:15.240 in Louisiana Senate races, that his people have to fall in line on his beliefs or his incorrect 17:15.240 --> 17:20.840 beliefs that the 2020 election was stolen. So Tom Tiffany is still answering questions about 17:20.840 --> 17:25.720 election fraud investigations and whether Joe Biden won the election with, you know, kind of 17:25.720 --> 17:30.200 diffusing or deferring and trying to get away from it, because he can't come out and honestly 17:30.200 --> 17:34.120 say, no, of course, Trump lost. That's been warranted over and over every Republican group 17:34.120 --> 17:38.840 out there from lost to the Wisconsin Institute for Long Liberty has already said so. And that 17:38.840 --> 17:42.840 is something that Democrats love to hear because they will continue to hang that around his neck 17:42.840 --> 17:47.080 all the way to November as much as they possibly can. The closer they tie him to Donald Trump in 17:47.080 --> 17:51.480 these grievances from four years, six years ago now, that the better off it is for them. 17:51.560 --> 17:55.800 And Anya, just real quick, I mean, it seems like this is an issue where as much as he wants to go 17:55.800 --> 18:00.360 for those handful of voters who are in the middle, this is a line that he can't cross as far as 18:00.360 --> 18:04.120 Republicans are concerned. Yeah, I mean, I think one of the lessons from this week is that in 18:04.120 --> 18:09.400 state politics, it's not the time if you are a Republican to be bucking Trump. And so we are 18:09.400 --> 18:14.280 seeing him sort of tie himself again to this issue. And it'll be interesting to see how much does 18:14.280 --> 18:18.600 that motivate his Republican voters and how much does that turn off those moderate voters and 18:18.600 --> 18:23.160 energized Democratic voters? Absolutely. That's all the time we have for today. 18:23.160 --> 18:27.880 Thanks for joining us. This has been Inside Wisconsin Politics. Our colleague Rich Kramer 18:27.880 --> 18:34.680 will be back next week. Be sure to follow us on pbswisconsin.org, wpr.org, YouTube, or wherever 18:34.680 --> 18:36.120 you get your podcasts.