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Do endorsements matter?

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This week we look at a few examples including in heated primaries for the 7th congressional

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district and the governor's office.

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Plus, the latest Republican party drama following the Supreme Court blowout.

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This is Inside Wisconsin Politics.

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I'm Sean Johnson, here with my colleagues Anya Ben-Wagtendank and Rich Kramer in Eau Claire.

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Hey gang.

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Hey Sean.

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So part of the reason we wanted to talk about these races is that they are interesting,

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okay?

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If you haven't been following these primaries yet and you'll be forgiven, it's April.

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But the races for the 7th congressional district, especially on the Republican side and the

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Democratic primary for governor, are pretty dramatic.

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Let's start with the 7th though, Rich, because another reason we want to follow these is

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that they involve endorsements that seem like they could define the race.

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Tell us about what happened up in the 7th where you got kind of the biggest endorsement

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of all.

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Yeah, truly.

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Donald Trump way back in January endorsed one of the candidates running for that seat.

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Michael Alfonso, of course, Michael Alfonso is the son-in-law of US transportation secretary

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Sean Duffy who also had that congressional seat before.

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So it definitely created a stir within the GOP primary and I'm sure you'll be hearing

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a little bit about that endorsement in the general.

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And the reason we have an open race up there, Anya, is because the current office holder,

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Tom Tiffany, is running for governor.

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We're going to get to that race in a bit.

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But first of all, with Tom Tiffany, as he transitioned to the governor's race, he also

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got that Trump endorsement.

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How has that played out in his race there?

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Yeah, I mean, if people go all the way back in time to 2025, there were briefly three Republican

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candidates for governor alongside Tom Tiffany.

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One dropped out after some negative reporting about some of the stuff he'd been following

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on social media.

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That was Bill Baryon.

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But then Josh Sherman, Washington County executive, stayed in the race until the morning after

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Tom Tiffany got the Trump endorsement and he dropped out.

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And so it was a little bit of this nod to the fact that in a Republican primary, a nod

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from Trump can really be a sort of king-making move, at least in the primary, but then it

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can also lead to all kinds of stuff in the general.

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It was a really cause-effect situation there, right?

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Endorsement one day, he drops out the next.

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That has not been the case in the seventh, though, Rich.

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I mean, I think that is the general playbook, is that Trump endorses and people sort of

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assume that in a Republican primary that seals it.

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That is not what's happening there.

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And you kind of saw it firsthand last night at a candidate forum in Mercer.

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Tell us about that.

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Yeah, so this forum was hosted by the Iron County Republican Party.

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It was in a former gymnasium of a very old school and it happened on the first 80-degree

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day that Mercer saw this year.

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So it was a nice event, but the theme was, if I might summarize the candidates and some

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of the people I talked to in the audience, we support President Trump, but that doesn't

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mean we have to vote for who he tells us to.

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So a lot of people up there, and this was actually the first time that I saw candidates,

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Republican candidates, Kevin Hermanning and Jesse Eben go negative against Alfonso.

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They were criticizing Alfonso, who is 26-year-old, 26-years-old, for not having very much experience

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in politics or local government, et cetera.

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And they were portraying themselves as the better choice.

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But there was discussion about, does Alfonso or Duffy feel like this congressional seat

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is something that he's entitled to?

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So it was really interesting.

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People up there tiptoeing the line of still supporting the president, who did very well

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in this district, which leans pretty Republican, but they just don't, there's this independent

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streak where they don't like the idea of being told what to do.

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And I got to ask you about what they did on the stage there, too, because they had assigned

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seats for all the candidates, including Michael Alfonso.

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Yeah, in fact, the only seat that had a sign on it was Michael Alfonso.

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So he had the three of the Republican candidates were on the stage.

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That's Nina Baum, Jesse Eben, and Kevin Hermanning.

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And then there was an empty chair with Michael Alfonso's name on a piece of paper taped to

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it.

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And even during the debate, Kevin Hermanning stretched his arm out and kind of put it on

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the chair, had a big smile, his campaign person took a picture that made it up, made it on

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social media pretty quickly.

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So there was that, but even before the debate, one of the interesting things that kind of

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got me interested in going up there was this Republican party, their Facebook page was

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essentially goading or kind of making a little bit of fun of Alfonso's campaign for not responding.

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The GOP chair up there told me that people he knows with the Michael Alfonso campaign

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told him that the Trump endorsed candidate doesn't need to debate.

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And people in the audience say that they told me that's just not the case, like this

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is important.

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You've got to get out in this district and meet people one by one.

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And that's, that's what it takes to win.

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So you have the candidates who are in that race saying, you can't tell us what to do.

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We're still running up here on yet, although one of the candidates who Rich has done some

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reporting on did drop out this week.

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Tell us about that Paul Waskering left the race.

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Yeah, so Paul Waskering is a successful business person.

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He had a largely self-funded campaign.

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And so him dropping out is kind of the first big dropout of the race.

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And that's one of the things we kind of looked to going into a primary, especially in these

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crowded fields is when will people start dropping out.

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So this is kind of the first one.

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He had raised quite a bit of money from himself, as I mentioned, but very little in terms of

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independent donors.

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And then by contrast, you have Alfonso, who has received quite a bit of money from this

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kind of DC connected past studies on one thing that when Rich covered the empty chair,

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Alfonso was posting at the same time on Facebook photos of him with Republican Congress people

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in DC.

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So he has these big connections.

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And so I think it was a little bit of a signal that even people with deep pockets are not

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necessarily feeling up to the challenge.

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He also said that he didn't want to, Waskering said that he didn't want to kind of contribute

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to a bloody primary that that could only empower Democrats.

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So I think we're going to see a little bit of that, you know, bowing out in order to

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maintain the good of the party.

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Rich?

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Yeah, if I could just chime in on that.

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So the other thing is that, you know, there's this political action committee that has been

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raising money.

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It's based in Alabama.

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It's brand new.

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And it's been getting some of that money, a million dollars from Sean Duffy's former

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congressional campaign.

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And so they've essentially been doing a lot of ads, a lot of work for Alfonso, therefore

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he hasn't had to spend as much of the money that he's actually raised.

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And with regard to Waskering, what you noticed, Sean, on that last finance report that we

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looked at when I was reporting on it, there was some interesting loan information.

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You want to talk about that?

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Oh, yeah.

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I mean, well, I think the thing that got his attention for Paul Waskering when he jumped

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into the race was, as you mentioned, an ability to sell funds.

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So he loaned himself a million bucks there to start out.

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He had repaid a lot of that in the last report.

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So I think it is a situation where you put the money in there to send a message.

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He decided it was now well received and took the money back and got on out of there.

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Rich, I guess one thing we got to ask here, this is a very Republican district.

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And so we are talking about this Republican primary.

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But is this a situation where because of this infighting, you know, uneasiness among

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Republicans up there, is this door open for Democrats?

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I've heard that it is, and I've heard that it isn't.

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So this is a district that has tended to be more and more Republican since, say, 2010.

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We have to also remember that former Democratic Congressman Dave Obey represented the seventh

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for many, many years.

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But of course, with the Tea Party wave, Sharam Daffia got in, and it stayed Republican

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since.

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Of course, the map also changed, but just what I've been told by Joe Hendrick, who's kind

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of like the maps and elections data guru for the Republicans, is that it is Republican.

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It would be an uphill battle for any Democrat, but it's not impossible.

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And he said, if the GOP picks the wrong candidate in the primary and it's a wave year,

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which he said it seems to be looking like it might be, it's possible for this to flip

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back to Democratic hands.

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Whether that happens or not, Hendrick said it's unlikely, but it's not off the table.

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So let's turn to the Democratic primary for governor here, where we have seven candidates

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running, and it is at this stage not getting a ton of attention statewide.

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I mean, we did just have a Supreme Court race that ate up some of that.

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There's a little national news right now that has people's attention, but in that race,

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it feels like you could be talking about endorsements every week in a way about how that

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might affect the race.

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What's one that caught our eye this week?

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Yeah.

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I mean, so there have been all of these kind of smaller or more local endorsements that

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have been coming through, so local firefighters, unions, or this kind of thing.

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But then this week was the first, at least that I've noticed, sort of national figure

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to back a candidate.

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So Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, back to Francesca Hong, who is a Democratic representative

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from Madison.

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She aligns with the Democratic socialist sort of platform.

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And so she's one of the further left candidates, obviously getting the backing of a further

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left member of Congress.

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And this really caught our attention for sort of a double-edged reason, right, that can

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really signal where Hong stands here in Wisconsin, but of course Ilhan Omar has plenty

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of people who don't care for her in the Republican and sort of conservative side of things.

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And so looking towards a general election, I'm curious what it will mean to have some

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of these more divisive endorsements.

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But right now, it's also really interesting for a big national figure with a lot of media

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attention, social media attention, to be throwing her weight behind a candidate in the Wisconsin

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governor's election.

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Yeah.

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For me, I think if you're a voter out there who's barely paying attention to these races

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at this point and you have this overwhelming list of choices and for any, essentially,

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they're probably looking for clues on if they want to go for a very liberal candidate.

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This is a way of sending that message that Representative Hong is that candidate.

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You don't earn an endorsement like that without being a candidate like that.

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So it is a way to send a little hue kind of early going.

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Right.

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There's not a lot of differentiation on policy issues or some differentiation on sort of

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the specifics of things.

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But basically, every Democratic candidate supports abortion rights, you know, expanding

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Medicaid.

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Like there are all of these kind of signals there.

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And so an endorsement can offer a more specific kind of endorsement, I'm sorry, a signal

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around values and also again, invite some of the media attention that can come with that.

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So it's one thing to say, oh, I have the support of this local union in my community.

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And what does that say about my support for workers rights?

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It's another thing if, you know, Mom Donnie comes in and backs you right, a sort of nationally

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famous figure where people have already kind of done the work to understand who that person

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is.

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And so then they can apply it to the candidates here.

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Rich?

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We can't hear you, Rich.

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So Anya, I guess a question that I have when it comes to endorsements like this on the

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Democratic side, is there an equivalent to the Donald Trump endorsement where if this

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person comes in, you know, it's kind of all over in a primary.

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I mean, put simply, no, Trump is really the standard bearer for the Republican party and

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has been for a decade.

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Democrats just don't have that equivalent person, in part because, you know, you do have some

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of this division between more centrist Democrats and more left-wing Democrats.

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And so again, somebody like Ilhan Omar is going to really appeal to people who are kind of

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already in the Francesca Hong camp would not necessarily appeal to more sort of moderate

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or business-minded Democrats.

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And then there are people like Kamala Harris or somebody similar who might appeal more

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to those kind of centrist folks.

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But there's not really a uniting figure in the same way that Donald Trump is.

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You could imagine if, let's say, former President Obama were to jump in with an endorsement

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in that primary, which seems unlikely, but you never know, that might turn some heads.

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I think one difference is that President Trump has sort of gone after people who don't fall

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in line in a way that I don't know that President Obama would or could, Trump rags

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about it, frankly.

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I mean, he is not afraid to enforce his endorsements.

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And so I don't know that you have something like that on the Democratic side.

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Well, and you also don't have Tony Evers laying in on who would be a good sort of recipient

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of the torch that he wants to pass.

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In fact, I have asked him several times if he's going to endorse and he shoots that question

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down every time.

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So it looks like he's really not playing favorites.

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And so that's, again, another lack of a signal, right?

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If there's nobody to kind of carry for the specific Evers legacy, then who is the person

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who can do what he did, which is win pretty narrowly against a Republican?

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Yeah.

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I want to just reinforce that that is a perfectly reasonable question, and you should keep asking

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it.

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And I think in a different year and different circumstances, he'd have somebody.

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But in this race, he doesn't want to go there for whatever reason.

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So I guess it is an open question that we can ask every single campaign.

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But I don't care.

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I want to ask it again.

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Do endorsements matter?

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Do they matter for voters?

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To me, I think the answer is absolutely yes, given the circumstances.

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One I would think that where you see it definitely matter is in our upcoming court race.

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I don't know if you've paid attention to this one yet.

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I mean, I know you have.

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You've written about it.

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You did not have candidates endorse, you did not have the liberal justices endorse in

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that race yet.

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So in the 2024 Supreme Court race, you had the four sitting liberal justices endorse Susan

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Crawford early on.

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In 2025, you had them endorse Chris Taylor.

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You've had a candidate jump into the race, this race already, Anya, that you've written

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about Lindsey Burnett.

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She did not immediately get that endorsement.

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And so now you have maybe Judge Pedro Colone in Milwaukee could be running.

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So the lack of endorsement may be spawning a little liberal primary on that side.

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Yeah, again, and especially with the courts, right, there can be a little bit of that king

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making approach again.

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So I think it is when you have a crowded feel that the endorsements really matter.

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But we live in also such polarized times that going into a general election, there are going

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to be very few surprising endorsements.

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So the people that I've talked to about the politics of endorsements have said, surprising

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endorsements really matter, less surprising ones matter less because, of course, democratic

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royalty is going to back Democrats and Republican royalty is going to back Republicans in general.

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Before we wrap up here, I feel like we got to talk about the aftermath of the 2026 Supreme

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Court race, though, in just about a minute here.

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There was some talk that the state party chair, Brian Schimming, could lose his job

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over that race.

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Some people wanted him out.

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What's the update on that?

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He's still in.

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The party webpage still shows him as chairman.

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They had an executive committee.

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So that's the group of people that could have fired him and they apparently did not.

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But the twist is people I talked to that are on the committee said, we can't tell you

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what happened there because we signed non-disclosure agreements.

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Those agreements were put in effect in December.

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And just for context, after the 2025 loss that Republicans had, that was the Schimmel

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and Susan Crawford race, there were calls for Brian Schimming to be fired or resigned.

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So kind of the same thing.

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And shortly after that, the executive committee passed some new rules to kind of clamp down

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on people complaining publicly about GOP party leadership.

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So this is, Schimming is still in place and there's a new rule where you have to sign

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a NDA.

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So this powerful executive committee for the party makes decisions like this.

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And you know, you talked to one of the members and he didn't really tell you about what went

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on, but he said, check the website.

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Yes, check the website.

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That's right.

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And there's Brian Schimming's name as chair.

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Well, we'll continue to follow that one in all these endorsements.

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They'll do it for this week.

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It's all the time we have.

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Our colleague Zach Sheltz will be back next week.

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Thanks for joining us.

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This has been Inside Wisconsin Politics.

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Be sure to follow us on PBSWISCONSI.org, WPR.org, YouTube, or wherever you get your

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podcasts.

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They've been wrestling with it, man, for days.

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Sorry, I had a banger answer and you guys can't use it.

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You had other banger.

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Did you deliver?

