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Wisconsin Republicans convene a special session on gerrymandering and nothing really happens,

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but was it, what is it, sorry about that, Wisconsin Republicans convene a special session

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on gerrymandering and nothing really happens, but what does it mean that they kept the session

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open plus another key to key senator retires and the race for governor picks up steam.

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This is inside Wisconsin politics. I'm Sean Johnson here with my colleagues,

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Anya Ben-Wagtendank, Zach Schultz, and Rich Kramer in Eau Claire. Hey, everyone.

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Hey, Sean. Hey. So, Anya, I think there's actually a lot to kind of pick apart in terms

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of why Republicans did what they did with this session and what this issue means to

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the parties this year, but first for people who have not experienced the drama of a special

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session, I think maybe they hear that word special and assume it is kind of a big deal.

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What's it actually like in the room where this happens? Yeah, I mean, so with regular sessions,

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I think something that not a lot of people know is that there are very few surprises

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during a regular session, right? If something is coming to the floor, that means the majority

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wants it there. Generally speaking, we sort of know what's going to happen. With a special

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session, and especially this time around where Republicans hadn't signaled in advance

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that they hated the idea, there was really an open question of exactly what was going

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to happen on that day. So going into it, I kind of needed to be in two places at once.

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I needed to be in both the Assembly and the Senate, and then thankfully Assembly leadership

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sent out a message saying, we're going to keep this open, but that's so that we can

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have negotiations. Okay, so that signals that like maybe I don't need to be in the Assembly.

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So we go over to the Senate. That's where all of the reporters are waiting to see what

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exactly is going to happen in the Senate. And then there was just a lot of waiting

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around. Only Democrats were showing up. Finally, Democrats hold a press conference to kind

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of criticize their colleagues across the aisle saying they're not doing anything. Republican

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leaders show up and say, we too are leaving the session open. And so the end result is

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that it was a whole lot of waiting around for nothing, but the nothing could become something

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if and when they reached sort of negotiations with the governor and then reconvene at some

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point in the future.

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And I can tell you because we did team coverage on this one in the Assembly, it was a whole

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lot of milling about would be the way I describe it. I don't think they even had gavels this

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time, which feels like it's really kind of pretty pretty chill in there. So, okay, the

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special session was not all that dramatic, but the important thing is this thing is technically

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open. So Zach, I guess my question is, why is that? I'm maybe it's just muscle memory,

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but I just am used to this Republican legislature being pretty comfortable telling this governor,

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don't tell us what to do.

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Well, there's only one of two reasons why to keep it open. One, because maybe they actually

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want to do something and be good to their word and negotiate and try and pass this constitutional

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amendment. Or two, the optics of keeping it open are important to their base and their

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voters because redistricting and gerrymandering is an important thing. And especially this

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time around, it's Republican voters who understand, oh, this is why we're potentially losing

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the Senate and we lost a bunch of race in the seat. It doesn't feel good to be on this

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end of it. And so maybe since both sides have felt the effects of when it's not in your

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favor, that perhaps there's an idea of, hey, let's come to a compromise and try and resolve

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this.

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Rich, what do you think? Is this a real session here? Could something actually happen?

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I suppose it could. This, there's been a lot of surprises in the, this session and the

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end of the last session for me. I started working at WPR in 2011 about and, you know,

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I'm used to seeing Gavilan Gavilan out, essentially saying thanks, but no thanks from the Republicans

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saying that to Governor Tony Evers. But we've got these new state legislative maps, you

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know, control of the Senate is a big question mark after the November election. So they're

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just acting differently. What it means? I don't know what happens. I really don't

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know.

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You know, coming back to the optics that you mentioned there, I feel like that is probably

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a big factor. You know, whatever ends up being decided here, just thinking back to 2024,

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which was the first year that we had elections under these new, more competitive legislative

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maps. And I get to edit a bunch of stories from reporters around the state. And I swear

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the number one thing I heard in every story from these candidates in these contested districts,

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these 50 50 districts was voters want candidates who will work across the aisle and not, you

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know, get into these fights in Madison, Wisconsin. So if you're trying to do what's best for

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those candidates right now, why not keep it open? You know, why not keep that an option

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for them to at least talk about? Anya, did you get the sense that the governor kind

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of saw that too with the statement that he put out after this session? It was pretty

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like get going, you know, get yourselves in gear here.

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The statement that said there is actually nothing to negotiate while we are wondering

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whether he and Republicans are in the middle of negotiations around this language. Yeah,

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it does kind of raise the question of what those negotiations will look like. And to what

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extent this is about sort of a messaging war going into this election year. And one of

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the things that he also said in that statement was, you know, lawmakers will have to go on

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the record about their feeling about gerrymandering. And so if they don't, if they don't hold this

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session, if they don't go to the floor, that is a statement. And so really trying to, again,

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kind of put the onus on Republicans who are especially in the Senate quite vulnerable

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right now to make the point to their voters where they stand on this issue.

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I want to play a skeptic here for one more minute here as to why they might not want to

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do this. This is a Republican legislature. We've been talking about how the Supreme

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Court has this liberal majority that could be there for years. The resolution that the

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governor is proposing just says basically, districts shall not provide a disproportionate

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advantage partisan gerrymandering is prohibited. It's pretty thin. Who's going to interpret

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that if they passed it? Well, there's only two ways to interpret it. One is they actually

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negotiate state law that gives a definition for what that means. That could be the negotiations

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happening is a parallel bill if that was actually going to be resolved through the legislature

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and the governor. But otherwise, it's going to be the Supreme Court. And ultimately,

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no matter what gets passed, it'll be the Supreme Court because these would be added to the

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Wisconsin Constitution. This is not just a law. This would be a constitutional amendment

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and it would create this big language that does not have definitions so far in state

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law. And that really would be a liberal Supreme Court, more than likely, coming back to say,

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well, this is what we determined to be partisan gerrymandering. And this is what we think

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is an advantage for partisans.

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Rich, what happens when you invite a court to start talking about statistics and mathematics?

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Oh, you know, like a three year court trial, I'm exaggerating. But what also happens is the

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courts have generally not wanted to touch this, this claim, this partisan gerrymandering claim

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from the US Supreme Court to the Wisconsin Supreme Court. They've just wanted to avoid it. And if

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we look back to when the legislative maps passed by Republicans in 2011 were struck down,

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they didn't do it. They didn't take up the partisan gerrymandering claim. They got around

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that by looking at contiguity of districts, whether or not one district has a piece in another.

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So that was, in a way, a technicality. They did get to the same place that the plaintiffs wanted,

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which was new maps, but it took a bit of a roundabout way to get there.

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Okay, before we move on from this, can we just kind of explore the possibility that maybe there

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would be a scenario where Republicans really would look at the situation and say, hey,

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let's pass this. Let's make a deal with the governor. Let's say it's November after the election.

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How might that play out?

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I think the biggest variable is who wins in November because member constitutional

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amendments need two consecutive sessions. So this legislature can pass it all the way through

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December 31st, but then the next legislature, which will be made up in November elections,

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will determine whether it gets passed again. And so that's the key element there.

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Is there a scenario where the winners in the fall indicate we would like to actually pass

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this? And so there's incentive to do it in the lame duck? Possibly.

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If they don't have the majority, maybe they say this is their best outcome.

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Possibly. Okay. Well, we've already seen the current map kind of having an effect on the

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upcoming races here, especially in the state Senate where we know, you know, majority control

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is going to hinge on who wins for state Senate seats. Rich, you're sitting in one of those

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districts right now, I believe, and there was some news there this week. What happened?

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Well, first, let me take you on a tour of the 31st Senate district. So what happened was

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one of the Republicans in a race for the 31st or the Republican in the race for the 31st Senate

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district announced that he's dropping out. He's not going to run against Democrat Jeff Smith.

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So this was Senator Jesse James. And he was in a different district, but because of the map

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redrawing, he was going to have to face Smith. So two incumbents, but now you've got one incumbent.

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You've got the Democrat in the race, who's already represented the district, even though

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it's changed a little bit. So big picture, when the maps were redrawn, there's four

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Senate districts that are deemed competitive, that it's really kind of a coin flip or just about.

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And we've seen retirements from three of the Republicans in four of those districts.

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And, you know, that in and of itself is a big signal for how people are feeling about the fall

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election. So I guess, in a way, it complicates Republicans' chances of holding the Senate majority

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and definitely gives some fuel to Democrats who are getting pretty excited about November.

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So we have elections that are going to have to take place before we get the answers to these

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questions. But Anya, I would suspect that Senate Republicans would have preferred to run these

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races in these, you know, three of these four key seats with Senators Hutton, with Senator

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James, with Senator Wengard. You know, what position are they in now?

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I mean, it's interesting. Like, there's a mix of reasons why these lawmakers have said that

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they are stepping down. Again, that has Rich just alluded to Democrats are trying to spin this as,

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you know, they're kind of running scared. But it is, it raises sort of the question of who will

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then run in their spots. So Jesse James is a really interesting example. He has worked

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quite a bit across the aisle. He's been a real kind of leader on criminal justice issues.

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One of my favorite sort of fun facts is that he and Madison Democrat Sheila Stubbs are like

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best friends and they do a lot of work together. He's done a lot on mental health. And so he is

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a really different kind of Republican than you might see in, let's say, suburban Milwaukee or

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something like this. And so the question is, who then comes out? I think Zach has made this point

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before that when you're in the minority and when you are kind of pushing up against a less

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likely scenario, more sort of fringe candidate or people further to the left or the right

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tend to be the ones who come forward. And so there will be a really interesting question to see who

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is entering these races in November and what that does for who's wanting to vote in November.

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We already have our first dancer in this particular race, the first Republican to announce they're

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going to run. Her middle name is Maga Dance. And she put that on all of her campaign signs two

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years ago when she ran and lost an assembly race. And you cannot connect yourself literally more

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closely by putting your name and making it close to Trump's Maga movement. And that is who is running

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in that Republican district, which is now drawn to be Democrat has a Democrat incumbent. And

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as we've talked about over and over on this show, you don't have to look any more past what the

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candidates do. And when they are not running, that tells you they know the environment they're

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up against. Every one of them will have their own individual story. But the larger picture

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gives us a pretty clear roadmap of what Republicans think of their odds in the Senate specifically.

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But to go back to Robin Voss holding the assembly for all those years, we saw in a number of elections

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in 18 and in 22 where top of the ballot, Tammy Baldwin or Tony Evers would win some of those

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Republican assembly seats and Republicans down ballot won them. And then part was because

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incumbents name recognition fund raising ability. And when you have people drop out,

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you lose all of that. You don't have the name. You don't have the person that knows how to knock

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the doors that has the community connections. And they don't raise as much money. They really

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do is put them in a big hole. So I guess against that backdrop, you have these signals being sent

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by Republicans dropping out of these races. You have the Supreme Court blowout of a couple of a

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week ago, I guess now. It's not at this moment looking great for them. So why would Republican

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Congressman Tom Tiffany, the candidate for governor, pick now to come out with the seven-figure

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ad buy in the governor's race? He's trying to reset the landscape. Absolutely. This is the perfect

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time to reframe it coming out of that Supreme Court race and say we've got four months until

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the August primary and then a few months after that and into November. And he is the lone Republican

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out there. So it's a positive ad. If you watch the ad, it's not hitting on anyone. It's talking

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about where his values and where he grew up and on a dairy farm and what he's done for his experience

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and how much he loves the state. Those are all things that play really well statewide. And when

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he has to boost his name recognition, if you look at the polling, it's still 65% of Republicans

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weren't sure. And he was really the only major candidate left. So he has to win his base and

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there's room for moderates and independents who especially looking at that national landscape

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may say, well, if there's going to be Democrats in one chamber, well, who's going to run the state?

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He has an opportunity to reset his agenda, give himself a little distance from Trump,

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whose name right now is not very popular in Wisconsin among independents, young people and a lot of

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other groups. So this is a time for him to own the stage by himself. Well, the Democrats don't

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have money to go on the air in a seven-way primary. A rear window to run positive ads. We know he

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likes old fashions and the Packers and all this cliche Wisconsin stuff he says about himself.

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Rich, there was another message in there in the Tom Tiffany ad that caught your eye.

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Yeah, there was. He basically was saying that he'd fight against Wall Street buying up

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residential homes and push back against big tech bulldozing farmland for data centers.

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Those are talking points that are more akin to something you'd hear out of Democrats

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in recent years. So that is really interesting. And to pivot off of what Zach was saying,

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Tiffany's trying to define himself before one of the Democrats define him as, or they have already,

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but until the whole connection with President Trump sticks more. So he's getting out ahead of it.

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And also, I've seen a lot of conservatives on social media say, this ad won him the election.

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Well, that's an exaggeration. But we've seen people tend to like kind of boring folks in general

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elections. Governor Evers is an example. So maybe Tiffany's trying to make that happen and build

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that reputation for himself. Sean, I want to ask you about this because I got the sense that he was

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trying to rebrand himself as a folksy guy. Now, if you look back at the history of candidates

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winning elections, you look at Evers and Tommy Thompson. I mean, what's your impression of

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what attributes do they share in common when it comes to being the every man in Wisconsin and

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folksy nature? I think if you just look at right now in Wisconsin politics that Rich said the word

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boring, but I think these candidates kind of embrace that though. Tony Evers gives off this

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awesucks vibe. That is his brand. Scott Walker once described himself as aggressively normal

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when he was running for president. And I think people in other states thought what? But you

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know, we know here, yeah, that's what went on the election. Even, you know, like Jim Doyle,

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Harvard Law educated, he would kind of drop his R's when he was out on the campaign trail because

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he knows what he was going for with that vibe. And so it is something that Tom Tiffany seems to

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have going for him that that guy that you could see at a bar talking about sports or you name it.

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There was one development in the Democratic primary that I'd like to touch on if we can.

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There's still a big primary. There's seven candidates who've been forums that you all have covered.

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One of them got a fairly big endorsement in Democratic politics on you. Can you tell us about that?

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Yeah. And then I actually also want to turn it back to you. So Calder Roy's got this major

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endorsement from, we asked this big education teachers union. And the sort of open question

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that I have and that you and I have discussed is how significant is that now? So in the past,

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that would have been sort of almost like a king making move. She is certainly really kind of

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trying to promote it in part because her polling numbers have been pretty low throughout. So this

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could be a last chance, a last ditch effort. But I'm curious what you think compared to again,

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like eight years ago, what this endorsement could mean?

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Well, I mean, I think Zach, you know, when before we lost a lot of his power with Act 10,

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it was a huge endorsement. I think in a Democratic primary, it's something they certainly have to

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take note of though. You can't ignore the largest teachers union. To me, it just signals at this

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primary that we sort of are expecting to get smaller organically at some point.

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Calder Roy's not going to go anywhere when she has the teacher's union on her side. So

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that is one that seems like is going to take a little more time to sort out here.

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So that's all the time we have for today. Thanks for joining us. This has been Inside

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Wisconsin Politics. Be sure to follow us on pbswisconsin.org, wpr.org, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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And that's banter.