What do we know about the spread of
bird flu in Wisconsin?
The avian virus has hit commercial
poultry flocks in Kenosha and Barron
counties, where one worker also
contracted it.
It's been confirmed in wild bird
populations across the state this
winter, and it's suspected
to have killed 90.
Mallard ducks on a pond
and Allegheny County just this
week. Confirmation of that
outbreak awaits test results.
We turn to Doctor Michael Osterholm,
epidemiologist at the University
of Minnesota Center for Infectious
Disease Research and Policy.
And thanks very much for being here.
Thank you.
So what is the status of bird
flu in this region?
And are we holding it at bay?
Well, first of all, one has to
understand that the natural
reservoir or the location where this
virus exists is actually largely
in waterfowl and
waterfowl across the North
American continent are just about
everywhere. There's over 40 million
of these birds.
And when they get infected,
sometimes they die, but oftentimes
they won't. And they're able to
spread the virus in many locations
at one time.
So we're seeing activity right
now, not just in the upper Midwest,
but throughout much of the country.
And is when these birds then have
contact with other animal
species, or, for example, that a
waterfowl that may die and consumed
by another animal species, they
get infected.
And what we've also seen, of course,
is when the poultry world where
and we do have an abundance
of poultry, both chickens and
turkeys, as well as egg laying
chickens in the upper Midwest.
And what's happening is that virus
is making its way into these barn,
either through what we call a lack
of biosecurity, where people don't
change, you know, their clothing
between the barns, they don't,
you know, adequately wash their
boots, etc.
but also, we're seeing evidence now
of us wind blowing transmission,
where again, flock
of geese may very well land
on a field somewhere out there
eating all day the corn that
was left from the harvest and then
defecating. And then as that dries
in the wind blowing potentially into
these barns.
So we have some real challenges
right now. The final area, of
course, that we're so concerned
about in Wisconsin has every reason
to be concerned is the issue of
dairy cattle.
We saw a little over a year ago the
spillover of this virus from birds
to dairy cattle, and the
fact that the virus now can
replicate very well in the utter
of the cow.
Something we did not know until this
past year.
And so we've seen large
outbreaks throughout the country,
primarily in the west western
states, California being the really
major location where we continue
to see transmission between
cattle, dairy cattle after
once they became infected with that
bird spillover.
What's the expectation as to
the, you know, widespread
spread of this and even
into Wisconsin and it's
dairy cattle?
Well, first of all, this virus is
around the world right now.
We have a major outbreak ongoing
right now in Antarctica, in which
a number of the penguin populations
are at great risk from this virus,
and many are dying.
So it's everywhere.
What we really need to look at,
though, down the road, is from a
human disease standpoint,
what are the animals were most
likely to have contact with that
could bring the virus to us?
And that really remains largely from
the poultry side of the house as
well as the dairy cattle.
So yes, we might have contact
with a wild animal that dies, but
you can obviously do that
safely with wearing gloves,
etc.
but when we're having everyday
contact with
dairy cattle or with
poultry, that makes it a very
different situation because there
are people can get infected.
Now, I can say that with over 70
cases of H5n1 infection
in people in this country in
the last year, most of them
have been people who work in dairy
operations or in poultry
operations.
Fortunately, almost all of these
illnesses have been very mild,
what we call conjunctivitis or
infection of the eye, because there
happens to be certain receptor sites
or cells in our eyes that allow
the virus to penetrate that, but not
necessarily into our lung.
What we worry about is one day
that the virus will continue to
mutate and change in such a way
that then can start to develop
infection in our lungs.
And that would be potentially the
first step towards a new influenza
pandemic.
It's exactly what I was going to ask
you about what you what your
concerns are around a pandemic.
Well, you know, I used to say
in the earlier days of of
influenza and the potential
for a pandemic that you always have
to sleep with one eye open.
Well, today I sleep with both eyes
open as it relates to influenza.
I think that we've never
seen this magnitude of transmission
around the world. We've never seen
the number of opportunities for this
virus to change genetically.
Think about every time a new
H5n1 virus is hatched
out of a cell.
That's like another throw at the
genetic roulette table for a
mutation.
And a mutation, that means this
could be the changes that would
occur enough in the virus to readily
infect humans, who then, in turn can
infect others by just breathing.
So this is a real issue.
Unfortunately our vaccines we
have our our good vaccines, but
they're not great.
We would have a very difficult
time making enough vaccine in the
first year of a pandemic to
to cover more than a quarter of the
world's population.
These vaccines will surely
have a positive impact
on your clinical outcome, but
they're not necessarily going to
prevent you from getting infected.
So I think that we have a lot of
work to do, and I wish we would
focus on that right now.
Our investment in new influenza
vaccines for humans and animals is
really just a small,
small part of what it needs to be.
Is the CDC and other federal
agencies keeping pace with bird
flu at this time?
Well, over the course of the last
month with the new administration,
we have to understand that, you
know, there may be some downtime in
terms of responding as
it would be with any change in
administration.
But we're also concerned that we're
seeing these dramatic cuts that are
occurring that are pretty
indiscriminate, more of a machete
approach than a surgical knife.
And with that, they
are taking people who are critical
to responding to this kind of
activity and what they can do.
We're also seeing right now the
potential impact on research
funding.
The NIH may
have to change how much money they
provide universities to support
basic research, which if
that were to happen, it would be
really a major
research disaster in this country.
Much of that research we see today
is things like applied
research on vaccines
for influenza and coronaviruses.
So I am very concerned about that.
And we already we're not spending
nearly enough to to be commensurate
with the risk of pandemic flu
plays. But with recent
potential cuts, it could really be a
real a real challenge.
What about a federal plan
to address avian flu?
Is there one.
U.S. Department of Agriculture and
a press briefing in an op ed
piece, recently laid out some
general concepts about a plan
for responding to poultry
and dairy cattle.
I think many of us are waiting for
much more detail on that plan to
before we pass judgment.
But, you know, we've really, for the
last year, have
have not adequately handled
the issue in terms of
poultry and cattle
becoming infected.
You know, not much we can do about
the wild waterfowl.
You know, they're going to be out
there. They're going to continue to
to, you know, spread the virus
around North America.
But we can do something about the
production of poultry as
well as the dairy cattle.
And I think that at this point,
we surely need to do a lot more than
we're doing.
Not to be alarmist, but how worried
should we be?
Well, as I say, often
the pandemic clock is ticking.
We just don't know what time it is.
And I think from that perspective,
you know, it could happen tomorrow,
but it could be five, ten years from
now. We don't know, but it's one of
those ones. You don't want to wait
to find out that you weren't
prepared when it happened.
And so I think the immediacy
of our of our work to try
to come up with better vaccines is
really very critical.
All right. Doctor Michael Osterholm,
thanks very much.
Thank you.
On.
Set. That's it.
That's the pandemic clock behind
you.
There you go. That's it.
You got it.
Wow. You know what you got?
You got it right.
Go ahead. You know.
It was really unusual
here.
Every every single question
that I intended to ask you,
you actually went to and answered
before I asked it, so.
Well, you know, your staff sent me
the text. I'm joking.
They didn't. They didn't tell.
Me. Maybe it's just the I
want.
I wanted so badly to impress
you that I was smart.
So then I thought, well, if I can
get a hold of your questions ahead
of time. But that didn't work.
So I'm not.
Smart. Like, like like
you need to do that.
All right.
Yeah. There you go.
Well, you guys have a good one.
Thank you again.
You too. Thanks. Bye bye.
Bye. Bye bye.