Smoke from Canadian wildfires
this week left Wisconsin in a state
of haze and health warnings.
Midweek, Milwaukee had the worst air
quality in the nation.
As the fires burn and new ones break
out, it could be a summer-long
threat.
Kurt Kotenberg with the National
Weather Service in Green Bay shares
the forecast for smoky
conditions.
And thanks a lot for being here.
Absolutely. Thank you for having us.
So as to this week's smoky
conditions in Wisconsin, do you
know how they stack up historically?
Like, was this worse than we've
seen?
Sure. Um, so
a lot of this is originating from
the Canada wildfires
and the wildfires
at this current rate that they're
going are definitely above normal.
And what makes it unique for
us here in Wisconsin this year is
just the wind pattern and the wind
direction.
Um for the past past few
weeks, there's been a high pressure
area over the center of the country.
And so really Taking
a step back here. What helps get the
wildfire air down to us in Wisconsin
is the wind direction at the high
levels of the atmosphere.
And we've had just this pretty
persistent weather pattern over the
past few weeks.
And that's been a very, a weather
pattern that's had very strong winds
over Canada.
They've literally been pointing the
winds into Wisconsin.
They're blowing at about 125
miles an hour at 20,000
feet. So very high up there getting
very fast winds that are ushering
all of this wildfire smoke into
Wisconsin.
And comparing trends from now
versus the past 10 years, the trends
are above normal for wildfires that
have been occurring in Canada.
And it's just kind of a more of a
local thing as to why
that smoke is reaching us
here in Wisconsin.
Some years it's a different weather
pattern where the smoke is not being
brought down into Wisconsin, but
this year, unfortunately, it is and
has been.
And it seems like the wildfire trend
is only going to continue to get
worse in Canada.
So if the local weather conditions
continue to bring that air down
here, unfortunately we may see
a very smoky and hazy
year ahead here for the summer.
And yet the weather pattern that is
bringing kind of the wind
aloft, the smoke with it
into Wisconsin, is that something
that you can predict going forward?
Um, so as we
get better and better at our
computer models over extended
periods of time, um,
generally like three to four weeks
out, we can get a general sense
of our wind's going to be coming
from the Northwest.
Our wind's gonna be coming from the
Southwest, um as
like, is a big, is a big pattern.
So weather is like the
day-to-day, so the overall
pattern might favor winds from the
Northwest for the next three to four
weeks, but that's not going to be
consistent in every day.
Some days we'll have winds from the
Southeast, sometimes from the
Southwest.
But when you put every single day
on a map for like a four
week period, that gets the
general trend.
And that general trend, I do
believe, unfortunately, is going to
continue to feature winds coming
from the West and Northwest into
Wisconsin. So again, unfortunately
it's looking like, We may see
not every single day is going to
feature poor air quality, but
more often than not, we might start
to see days with poor airquality
here in Wisconsin for
June, July into maybe even August
and September.
Should we expect some version of
this every summer?
Um, so yeah, so
generally the, so it's kind of
interesting if interesting is the
right word, but there's a trend, um,
looking in the past 10 years for
wildfires, the number of
wildfires might actually be on
the decrease a little bit.
However, the wildfires that do
start are more intense.
Um, and so that's, that's what
we're seeing. We're seeing, a lot
of large wildfires out there.
So for instance, there's one
wildfire that's burned over 100,000
acres so far, which is pretty large.
And just on a daily basis,
you know, right now with it being so
warm and dry out there, we're seeing
wildfires pop up by the hour.
And so the challenge is what are
the weather conditions when those
wildfires popped up?
Is it occurring in a dry
area?
Is it occurring where there's strong
winds to help the fire spread?
Um, and so that's,
you know, getting, getting down to
that small scale, you know, we can't
exactly predict that because we can
exactly predict where a wildfire
will occur, you'll kind of like a
tornado, like a tornado, we can say,
you know, like central Wisconsin's
favored, um, wildfires are
kind of the same way.
Like, you know, a certain areas
might be more favored, like they've
had more dry conditions over the
past few weeks.
Uh, then looking ahead, like
we're forecasting very strong winds.
So if a wildfire were to occur in
this dry area, the conditions are
favorable for it to spread.
So it's kind of a weather community
that that's what we're looking at.
Then bringing it back into
Wisconsin, we take a
look at the wind speed and
wind direction aloft.
So, you know, if those wildfires
occur in Canada, which again,
we can't predict exactly when and
where they'll occur.
But if they do, what will that mean
for us in Wisconsin based on the
wind speed and the wind direction?
So that's what we're looking at
here.
And again, that's where our computer
models come into play and where
it's showing that the conditions
do remain favorable for
dry hot weather up in Canada
in northern parts of the United
States.
And so if we continue to see those
winds come towards us here in
Wisconsin, I think we'll continue to
see days of poorer quality.
I was going to ask how do warming
temperatures or climate changes play
into these conditions?
Um, so, so yeah, so that's,
um, tough to tell at
this point.
Um, it's kind of one of those, the
scientific community is just needs
more data and more years of data.
Um.
And again, here on the local level,
it, it s not so climate
change just as much as it is the,
the current weather patterns and
the wind speed and wind direction,
which climate change really
doesn't, isn't an influence on that.
Like this is more the small-scale
day-to-day type weather.
Um, but overall as a community, you
know, there's there's fire weather
experts, there's, uh, experts,
universities that are, you know,
researching to see if there is, or
is not a link.
Um, so that's kind of getting a
little bit out of our area.
Um, So again, we're at the weather
service here. We're just looking at
the day to day, I'm doing what we
can to alert people and warn people
if we're expecting for where
weather, uh conditions lead
to poor air quality.
Um, we'll try to get that alert out
to the public to help keep families
safe here in Wisconsin.
Well, thank you for that.
So we should be checking with the
National Weather Service if we want
to know going forward in
the coming days or weeks whether we
think we might have those kinds of
smoky conditions.
Yes, and we work well with the
Wisconsin DNR also.
So like Wisconsin DNr and the EPA
here across the state too.
We coordinate with the three of
them. So I would check with those
agencies as well.
All right, Kurt Cottenberg, thanks
very much.
Absolutely.
Thank you.
I love talking to a meteorologist.
Thank you, appreciate it.
And this is trying to get a little
little out of my, you know,
I do tornadoes and thunderstorms
and
Oh, you mean you don't want to talk
about global climate
change?
No.
Gotcha.
No comment.
Well, thank you. You were great.
Interesting.
All right, yeah, thank you.
Appreciate it.
Alright, have a good weekend.
All right, you too, take care.