Wisconsin's population is
on a steep decline.
The latest projection from the state
Department of Administration shows
Wisconsin's population is expected
to decline by nearly 200,000
residents by 2050.
It's all about aging and babies
and migration in and out
of the state.
But what are the implications for
Wisconsin in the face of a
population drop off?
We turn to Dale Knapp, director
of Forward Analytics.
And thanks very much for being here.
Great to be here.
So we just kind of named
what we think is going on, but what
are the drivers of population
decline in Wisconsin?
Well, you know, the baby
boomers,
that that that demographic, you
know, is one of the drivers
that they're now entering
their their later years.
But really,
the big the two big drivers
of this
population decline that we're now
beginning to to see is
the lack of of babies.
We've seen the number of births
drop every year.
But to a since 2007,
the birth in 2023
were the lowest since 1942.
That's me.
And then the other piece is
the other component is migration.
We saw big net migration
into the state, into the 1990s
and it's it's lagged ever since.
And when you have
the demographics that we do
kind of baked into
our future growth or no growth,
you need migration into
the state to, you know, fill those
gaps. And we're not seeing that.
Where our population
declines happening fastest
in our state.
They're happening fastest in the
rural north.
You know, they've been that's been
going on for
20 years, slow growth and then some
decline.
We saw a bump
in this last decade
in the census in
a number of counties in the north.
But it was really all
baby boomers that have retired,
moving north, which
doesn't help for workforce and
those key things
that they need to, you know, for the
for their economy.
But you know, as
they age, that's going
to you know, they're they're
going to move on as well.
So so certainly
people have been talking about this
for a long time.
We have known it has been coming.
But is it worse than expected in
your mind?
No, I don't. I think it's it's a
little bit worse because of
the decline in births.
Births generally
move up and down in
kind of cycles.
And when births started to decline
in 2007,
I think most demographers thought,
you know, that was going to be
temporary. It was going to be,
you know, six, seven, eight, ten
years.
And it's not been it's continued
and it's happening happening
everywhere.
And unfortunately, there's really
no signs that that's going
to change in the near future.
And so I think that's the that's
the part that has sort of surprised
us over over the past,
you know, 5 or 6 years
and has made the projections
as you look out, look, you know,
much worse.
So what are the implications for
population drop off something this
magnitude?
Well, you know, there there's
there's a lot of implications.
I think the number one that you that
you look at is workforce
are 25 to 64 year old
population is expected
to decline by almost 200,000
just in this decade.
And then more over the
following couple of decades.
We're already looking at labor
shortages everywhere throughout
the state.
So it's not only going to continue,
it's likely to to get worse.
And then when you look at,
you know, especially the declines in
births, the impact
there on schools,
whose funding
is tied to enrollment,
we're likely to continue to see
declining enrollment there and
financial challenges for it for our
schools.
So meanwhile, Dane County is the
total outlier with big projected
population gains by 2050.
What sets Dane County apart
and can it be replicated?
Well, I think, you know,
one of the Dane
County is unique in that it
has both.
It's the home of state government
and it has the the major university.
And I think when you look around the
country, you'll see that
those counties that have that
are generally more prosperous
and growing.
And so the Dane County has
all of that.
It kind of makes it a little bit
recession proof to some degree,
because. So you don't have the
economic fluctuations of laying
off people as much with with
government.
And so that's
that's part of it.
But it's also, you know, it's
becoming a place that has
a lot to offer in terms of
recreation and
activities and restaurants, etc..
And so people look at it and,
you know, they see it as a as a
great place to,
you know, raise their kids whether
they want to be in a more urban
area.
Madison or in one
of the little bit more
outlying communities.
All right. We leave it there.
We will obviously be watching these
numbers. Dale Knapp, thanks very
much.
Thanks for having me.
For more on this and other issues
facing Wisconsin, visit our Web site
at PBS's wisconsin.org
and then click on the news tab.
That's our program for tonight.
I'm Fredericka Freiberg.
Have a good weekend.