Prediction betting markets draw
billions in wagers on
everything from World Cup outcomes
to now, elections.
Kelcey, which describes itself as
the next generation financial
exchange, this month launched
a midterms hub,
designed, they say, as the one-stop
shop for state and federal election
forecasting and betting.
Not so fast, says the Wisconsin
Elections Commission.
Commissioner Ann Jacobs is here.
And thanks for being here.
Happy to be here.
So the commission recently put out
some guidance to voters about
betting on the outcomes of
elections. What did that say?
The guidance we sent out
to voters basically summarized
what has been Wisconsin law
since about 1849,
which is you cannot
bet on an election and
vote in that election.
So what are the penalties for
putting a wager on an election?
There's two sort of penalties
for it. Number one is someone
could challenge your ballot and
have it not count.
And the second one, which is
far more draconian,
is it is actually a class I
felony to bet and
vote in the same election.
How would anyone find out whether
you had done that or not?
I get asked that question quite
a bit and the answer is the
same way crimes are
reported to authorities of
all types,
a spurned spouse
or boyfriend, girlfriend,
a disgruntled employee,
an agitated
neighbor,
someone who you promised to share
the money with and then
didn't share the vet results
with. That's how these sort of
things are reported.
How could betting on the outcome
warp the process,
even tip the outcome?
There's a few ways it could, I mean
one of which is sort of on the very
personal level.
You are no longer voting for
the person you think would be best
in the position, you're now voting
for someone who can line your
pockets.
And that's a corruption of the
process on a very individual level.
In theory, you could
have people within a
campaign go out
to place bets to try to
tilt.
The prediction markets to create
a false sense of momentum
or antipathy
towards a given candidate.
So it could be an attempt to
manipulate it at a much larger
level.
What about the argument that
wagering on an election actually
gets people who wouldn't ordinarily
be interested in voting involved
in the process?
I find that so odd.
We want them to come into the
process to vote not for the
person that they think is going to
be best, but to
try to make money.
That's sort of a warped view of
elections.
We want people to vote.
I want people vote.
I hope everyone goes out and votes
on August 11th.
But I want you to go out and vote
because you believe that is
going to be the best person for the
job at hand.
What is your reaction to Kelsey's
new midterms hub?
I, you know,
apparently there is great
enthusiasm for
this as I accidentally learned
by posting on social media about
this law and people take
it quite seriously.
I don't have any opinion
one way or another about prediction
markets, whether they're good or
bad, legal or not.
All I care about is I
don't want people to accidentally
commit a felony by
voting and betting.
You can vote, you can bet,
you just can't...
Does this put the Wisconsin
elections commission squarely into
a fight with a very, very
moneyed interest?
I hope not, because
we're one of something like 35
states that have this same law.
The policy behind the law is
sound, and has been
that case for 100 and
however many years it's been.
So we really need to think about
whether or not we want
our elections to
be governed by
money-making or by
efficacy in government.
On another matter, what is your
reaction to this week's court ruling
that upholds WEK guidance that
you opposed, saying early
absentee voters can't get a
do-over, even if their candidate
dropped out.
Now, that's with nearly 130,000
early ballots cast and another
candidate this week dropping out.
I was obviously very disappointed in
the outcome.
I have been on the commission since
2016.
It was our guidance
at all times
until a court put
it on hold.
And now we've issued this new
guidance for the very first time.
Without alerting voters, it was
coming. And I was very disappointed
at that outcome.
We leave it there, Commissioner Anne
Jacobs.
Thanks so much.
Pleasure.
Thank you, that was perfect, like
your backdrop.
Thank you, Frederica.
It's always fun to see you.
When I was in college, you were
Frederica Runge and were
on the news.
And so that was when I
first saw your face as
a reporter.
So I'm always sort of entertained
when, you know, this many
years later.
I know, right?
I don't know what I did. My 40th
high school.
Union is this weekend, so.
I don't know what I think I'm doing,
but I'm still doing it, so.
I appreciate it, though.
Thanks a lot.
Have a great weekend.
You too.
Bye.