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Wisconsin's unemployment rate sits

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at 3.5 percent.

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That's lower than the national

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average.

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But for people newly entering the

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job market, like recent graduates,

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what are their prospects?

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Is the labor market cooling?

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And what role does AI have?

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That's a lot of questions.

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We take them to Scott Hodek,

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economist with the State Department

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of Workforce Development.

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And thanks very much for being here.

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Yeah, absolutely, thank you.

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So what does the Wisconsin labor

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market look like right now for

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new entrants into it?

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Well, the first thing I would say is

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that we're responding to

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the national trend, which is a

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cooling economy, like you

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noted.

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We've been seeing gross domestic

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product drop from 2.8%

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in 2024 to 2.2

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in 2025.

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And then so far in the first

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quarter of 2026, we're at 1.6.

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So we're seeing some

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deceleration, some slowing at the

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national level.

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And couple that with rising

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prices, which are.

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A real drag on the economy and

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some of the other indicators

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that show some changing

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spending patterns

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and a flattening trend in real

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disposable income, savings rates,

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things like that. And we're

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definitely seeing then

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a slowing national economy.

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And of course then in Wisconsin, we

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feel that as well.

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When I look though at

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our overall labor market, there are

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some bright spots too.

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I mean, like you noted, we do have a

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historically low unemployment rate.

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So if you look at, say,

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national job openings data, you do

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tend to see that the

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higher rates and the separation

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rates tend to be really tight

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together. But there's

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still, relatively speaking,

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a decent amount of openings.

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So while we have slowed, there are

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still openings out there.

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And

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we've had plenty of times in

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the past where we've have

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technological change.

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And that definitely does cause some

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disruption, whether that be in

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some shifts in businesses as they

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figure out how to kind of change

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occupations or what they're looking

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to hire in terms of skills, but

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also for then

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the new grads and the workers

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themselves as they're trying to

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decide, well, what skills do

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I need and how do I

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get into the labor force?

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At this point, and it's

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always a little bit tricky,

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graduating as

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the market's cooling.

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I mean, I did that myself forever

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ago, and it is

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a little difficult,

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but students and new grads

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adapt, and that's

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what's always happened in the past.

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Now the question with AI is often,

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well, are we going to see a

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situation

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where AI substitutes

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for so many jobs That we

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see something we've never seen

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before. And I can't really answer

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that. We just, we don't have enough

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data and we don't

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everything we see out there,

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you see one thing one day, one thing

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the next.

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And so while this is something

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that the Department of Workforce

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Development is aware of, and we've

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actually done work for the

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governor's task force on

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AI and looked

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into where there's

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exposure amongst these occupations

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to AI. And there's a lot, there will

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be a lot of exposure.

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But it doesn't necessarily indicate

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substitution.

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In a lot of cases, it will be

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folks working with AI.

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And that's something we're already

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seeing.

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And so at least right

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now, what we're seeing in the data

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is that it has been a

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little tougher for

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new grads to find

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work.

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That's not unusual, like I said, in

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a down period. But we are seeing

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some indications that there may be

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some other things going on there.

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But that said

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new grads have always adapted and

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there are a lot of job openings out

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there.

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And given demographics, just with

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the retirement of the baby boomers,

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there are lot of positions coming

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open that are simply because

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of retirements.

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So there actually are a lots

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of openings and opportunities out

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there, it's just a matter of kind of

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connecting to them.

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What are the so-called hot jobs

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right now?

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Yeah, a couple of the industries,

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and again, so I'm gonna base this

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off growth, but we're seeing a lot

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of growth in healthcare, and that

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makes sense with an aging

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population, but also with

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retirements.

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And we're a lot growth

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in construction as well.

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And you might look at

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construction and say, okay, well,

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that's mostly manual labor.

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And there is a lot that, but it's

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not always the case as well, there's

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skilled trades like electricians and

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plumbers, there's machine operators.

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And then you've got the larger

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companies that do require

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accountants and IT.

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So you do have a lot of different

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occupations mixed in these fields

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that have been doing well.

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But also, you

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know, if you look at manufacturing

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over the last few

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years, it's been a downward trend in

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employment.

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And honestly, throughout the

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past decades, we've seen staggered

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drops in employment in

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manufacturing, which we see

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nationally as well. This is a kind

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of a developed world sort of trend.

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But, um.

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What we do see is that there's

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still difficulty hiring into

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manufacturing as well.

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And we're looking at a

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ton of employment in Wisconsin

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and a ton a ton output and

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contribution to our gross domestic

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product here.

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So there are a lot of positions

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there that are open as well, but

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we don't necessarily think

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about that sometimes as job seekers,

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like is this industry growing?

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If not, should I not apply there?

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And the truth is there's so many

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retirements across a lot of these

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different.

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Industries that's it's more a matter

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of thinking of finding kind of the

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occupations that fit, right?

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So what are your long-term

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projections for trends

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of the economy?

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I mean, are people like you

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looking at potential recession?

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Well, we don't really speculate on

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what we're going

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to see in the future.

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What I can tell you is that the

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trend right now has

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been slowing.

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That said,

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if you were to just sort of

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grab news articles around the

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country, you would see that while

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some economists are projecting that

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it will climb back up, some are

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projecting that we'll have lower GDP

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this year and.

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There are not actually a

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ton of them calling for a recession

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immediately.

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Again, that doesn't necessarily mean

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that we won't have one or that

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one isn't coming.

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But what I see right now, what I can

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see right is what I tell you, and

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that's that we're seeing a slowing

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economy, but even

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despite all the pushback

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from things like tariffs,

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the war in Iran, rising prices,

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things like that, we're still seeing

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growth, and we're see low

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unemployment rates.

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And here in Wisconsin, we can look

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at our unemployment

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insurance claims data, and we're

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still seeing that on trend and below

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the last couple of years as well.

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So it's difficult to say with

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all the volatility and uncertainty

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right now, what we'll see going

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forward.

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Yeah, indeed.

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All right, well, Scott Hodek, thanks

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so much.

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Absolutely. Thank you.

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Wow, you you are

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good at your job.

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Thank you.

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Appreciate it.

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Kind of going to make me blush, I

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think. We really appreciate

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the info.

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We'll call on you again, sir.

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Well, I'd be happy to get and get an

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information out there is important.

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Yeah, I appreciate what you do.

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Thank you, all right.

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Enjoy this beautiful weekend.

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Hey, you too. Thank you.

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Thank you.

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Bye.