1
00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:40,379
While the State Department of

2
00:00:40,380 --> 00:00:42,059
Justice will investigate the

3
00:00:42,060 --> 00:00:44,019
shooting, the Dane County DA will

4
00:00:44,020 --> 00:00:46,199
make any charging decisions.

5
00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:47,699
The Madison Office of the

6
00:00:47,700 --> 00:00:49,539
Independent Police Monitor will

7
00:00:49,540 --> 00:00:51,499
also investigate.

8
00:00:51,500 --> 00:00:53,159
Turning to election news in the

9
00:00:53,160 --> 00:00:55,119
topsy-turvy Democratic primary

10
00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:57,139
for governor, some insights from

11
00:00:57,140 --> 00:00:58,699
this week's Marquette Law School

12
00:00:58,700 --> 00:01:00,619
poll. Even though it was in the

13
00:01:00,620 --> 00:01:02,339
field before Lieutenant Governor

14
00:01:02,340 --> 00:01:04,179
Sara Rodriguez dropped out

15
00:01:04,180 --> 00:01:06,119
and Milwaukee County Executive David

16
00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:08,479
Crowley got back into the race.

17
00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:10,139
Poll Director Charles Franklin is

18
00:01:10,140 --> 00:01:11,139
here with more, and thanks for being

19
00:01:11,140 --> 00:01:11,629
here.

20
00:01:11,630 --> 00:01:12,629
Thanks for having me.

21
00:01:12,630 --> 00:01:14,369
So even in the midst of this

22
00:01:14,370 --> 00:01:16,389
upheaval, what are your takeaways

23
00:01:16,390 --> 00:01:18,079
from your latest poll?

24
00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:20,099
I think the biggest thing is that

25
00:01:20,100 --> 00:01:22,179
even with Rodriguez in the race

26
00:01:22,180 --> 00:01:23,340
in our poll,

27
00:01:24,540 --> 00:01:26,319
Francesca Hong was still in first

28
00:01:26,320 --> 00:01:28,179
place. That's the fourth poll in

29
00:01:28,180 --> 00:01:29,619
a row that she's led.

30
00:01:29,620 --> 00:01:31,419
Mandela Barnes was in second place,

31
00:01:31,420 --> 00:01:33,239
also the third poll that

32
00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:34,779
he's been in second place since he

33
00:01:34,780 --> 00:01:35,899
got in the raise.

34
00:01:35,900 --> 00:01:37,439
And of course we didn't have David

35
00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:38,999
Crowley because he was not a

36
00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:40,159
candidate at that moment.

37
00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:42,099
Um The other

38
00:01:42,100 --> 00:01:43,799
thing that's really important is

39
00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:45,679
that 45% of Democratic

40
00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:47,559
primary voters said they hadn't

41
00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:49,739
decided who they would vote for.

42
00:01:49,740 --> 00:01:51,999
So even before the turmoil

43
00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,539
of changing candidates,

44
00:01:54,540 --> 00:01:56,559
still almost half of the

45
00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:58,059
Democratic electorate said they

46
00:01:58,060 --> 00:02:00,589
haven't settled on who they support.

47
00:02:00,590 --> 00:02:03,109
So Hong supporters are

48
00:02:03,110 --> 00:02:05,189
really strong supporters.

49
00:02:05,190 --> 00:02:07,209
They are quite strong.

50
00:02:07,210 --> 00:02:09,049
They're a little more likely to say

51
00:02:09,050 --> 00:02:10,728
they're absolutely certain that

52
00:02:10,729 --> 00:02:11,909
that's who they're going to vote

53
00:02:11,910 --> 00:02:12,709
for.

54
00:02:12,710 --> 00:02:14,849
And when we ask for second

55
00:02:14,850 --> 00:02:16,749
choices, she doesn't

56
00:02:16,750 --> 00:02:19,109
get that many second choices

57
00:02:19,110 --> 00:02:21,169
which suggests in one sense that

58
00:02:21,170 --> 00:02:23,169
her supporters are already behind

59
00:02:23,170 --> 00:02:25,129
her. But it also suggests

60
00:02:25,130 --> 00:02:26,629
that folks that are looking at

61
00:02:26,630 --> 00:02:28,988
candidates other than her

62
00:02:28,989 --> 00:02:30,849
are not as likely to come to

63
00:02:30,850 --> 00:02:32,869
her if their first choice goes

64
00:02:32,870 --> 00:02:34,099
away.

65
00:02:34,100 --> 00:02:36,139
If two-thirds of Democratic

66
00:02:36,140 --> 00:02:38,019
voters say winning in November is

67
00:02:38,020 --> 00:02:39,939
extremely important, as according

68
00:02:39,940 --> 00:02:42,239
to your poll, how does Tony Evers'

69
00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:44,059
endorsement of David Crowley factor

70
00:02:44,060 --> 00:02:45,060
into that?

71
00:02:46,059 --> 00:02:48,019
The importance of winning

72
00:02:48,020 --> 00:02:50,219
in November was uniform, no matter

73
00:02:50,220 --> 00:02:52,279
which candidate you were supporting,

74
00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,199
all of them gave that high

75
00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:55,739
rating to say it was extremely

76
00:02:55,740 --> 00:02:56,740
important.

77
00:02:57,640 --> 00:02:59,759
But Avers is remarkably

78
00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:01,419
popular among Democrats.

79
00:03:01,420 --> 00:03:03,419
He has an 89%

80
00:03:03,420 --> 00:03:05,559
job approval with Democrats right

81
00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:06,599
now.

82
00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:08,899
The question is whether his

83
00:03:08,900 --> 00:03:10,819
endorsements and activity

84
00:03:10,820 --> 00:03:13,099
in the campaign moves people

85
00:03:13,100 --> 00:03:15,109
on that decision.

86
00:03:15,110 --> 00:03:16,889
As opposed to they like the job he's

87
00:03:16,890 --> 00:03:18,769
doing as governor, but maybe they're

88
00:03:18,770 --> 00:03:20,349
not gonna be influenced by his

89
00:03:20,350 --> 00:03:21,969
recommendations.

90
00:03:21,970 --> 00:03:23,769
That we really don't know at this

91
00:03:23,770 --> 00:03:24,599
point.

92
00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:26,459
So the Rodriguez lane was

93
00:03:26,460 --> 00:03:27,699
moderate Democrat.

94
00:03:27,700 --> 00:03:29,969
Who picks up most of her vote?

95
00:03:29,970 --> 00:03:31,949
When we asked second choices

96
00:03:31,950 --> 00:03:34,049
of people that supported her,

97
00:03:34,050 --> 00:03:36,569
about an equal number went to

98
00:03:36,570 --> 00:03:38,989
Mandela Barnes and went to

99
00:03:38,990 --> 00:03:40,629
Joel Brennan.

100
00:03:40,630 --> 00:03:42,469
Smaller percentage, a good

101
00:03:42,470 --> 00:03:44,589
bit smaller went to Hong and

102
00:03:44,590 --> 00:03:45,909
a small percentage went to

103
00:03:45,910 --> 00:03:47,219
Calderoy's.

104
00:03:47,220 --> 00:03:49,459
So you described the

105
00:03:49,460 --> 00:03:51,419
undecideds at 45

106
00:03:51,420 --> 00:03:52,539
percent.

107
00:03:52,540 --> 00:03:54,439
Would voters sit this one

108
00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:56,399
out and not vote because of

109
00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:57,400
all of this confusion?

110
00:03:58,370 --> 00:03:59,749
It's possible.

111
00:03:59,750 --> 00:04:02,129
We do still see a

112
00:04:02,130 --> 00:04:04,209
high professed

113
00:04:04,210 --> 00:04:05,549
intention to vote.

114
00:04:05,550 --> 00:04:07,489
It certainly won't be the level of

115
00:04:07,490 --> 00:04:09,229
a midterm election because primaries

116
00:04:09,230 --> 00:04:10,629
are much smaller than that.

117
00:04:10,630 --> 00:04:12,869
But I think the

118
00:04:12,870 --> 00:04:14,829
Democratic coalition is pretty well

119
00:04:14,830 --> 00:04:16,989
mobilized. The issue is

120
00:04:16,990 --> 00:04:19,189
does this turmoil in

121
00:04:19,190 --> 00:04:21,369
the list of candidates

122
00:04:21,370 --> 00:04:23,249
take some people who are in that

123
00:04:23,250 --> 00:04:25,249
undecided category and

124
00:04:25,250 --> 00:04:26,789
make them just throw up their hands

125
00:04:26,790 --> 00:04:28,969
and say I'm not gonna bother.

126
00:04:28,970 --> 00:04:30,649
Or, and this is, I think, a real

127
00:04:30,650 --> 00:04:32,769
possibility, it's

128
00:04:32,770 --> 00:04:34,569
focusing attention on a race that

129
00:04:34,570 --> 00:04:36,489
had been pretty low-key up until

130
00:04:36,490 --> 00:04:37,309
now.

131
00:04:37,310 --> 00:04:39,289
And so it may have the

132
00:04:39,290 --> 00:04:40,909
effect of actually energizing

133
00:04:40,910 --> 00:04:42,429
Democratic voters.

134
00:04:42,430 --> 00:04:44,389
But we're also seeing a significant

135
00:04:44,390 --> 00:04:45,390
split

136
00:04:46,450 --> 00:04:49,269
across especially Hong,

137
00:04:49,270 --> 00:04:51,369
Barnes, and Crowley, potentially

138
00:04:51,370 --> 00:04:52,529
Crowley supporters,

139
00:04:53,550 --> 00:04:55,269
about how does that split the vote?

140
00:04:55,270 --> 00:04:57,189
And does it coalesce around one

141
00:04:57,190 --> 00:04:58,009
candidate?

142
00:04:58,010 --> 00:04:59,529
Or does it just splinter the vote

143
00:04:59,530 --> 00:05:00,509
evenly?

144
00:05:00,510 --> 00:05:02,509
So even with Hong continuing

145
00:05:02,510 --> 00:05:04,129
to lead among Dems, your numbers

146
00:05:04,130 --> 00:05:06,369
show Barnes leads Tiffany

147
00:05:06,370 --> 00:05:08,409
while the rest of the field does

148
00:05:08,410 --> 00:05:09,099
not.

149
00:05:09,100 --> 00:05:10,059
That's right.

150
00:05:10,060 --> 00:05:11,899
When we ask the general election

151
00:05:11,900 --> 00:05:13,679
question, Barnes is the strongest

152
00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:15,579
Democrat, leading Tiffany by

153
00:05:15,580 --> 00:05:17,659
four percentage points,

154
00:05:17,660 --> 00:05:19,799
whereas Hong trails Tiffany by

155
00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:21,419
three points.

156
00:05:21,420 --> 00:05:23,579
When we shift it to likely voters,

157
00:05:23,580 --> 00:05:24,799
the people who say they're certain

158
00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:26,939
they'll vote in the fall, Barnes'

159
00:05:26,940 --> 00:05:29,039
lead goes up to five, and

160
00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:31,459
Hong then ties Tiffany.

161
00:05:31,460 --> 00:05:33,339
So I think my takeaway from this

162
00:05:33,340 --> 00:05:35,219
is that there is a little bit

163
00:05:35,220 --> 00:05:37,099
of a differentiation between the

164
00:05:37,100 --> 00:05:37,949
candidates.

165
00:05:37,950 --> 00:05:40,249
But it's a fairly close race,

166
00:05:40,250 --> 00:05:42,129
whether it's Barnes or Hong or any

167
00:05:42,130 --> 00:05:43,809
of the other Democrats that we asked

168
00:05:43,810 --> 00:05:45,229
about.

169
00:05:45,230 --> 00:05:46,069
So guess what?

170
00:05:46,070 --> 00:05:48,009
It looks like another probably close

171
00:05:48,010 --> 00:05:50,039
election in Wisconsin.

172
00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:51,759
Does the shake-up at the top of the

173
00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:53,660
ticket inform the legislative races?

174
00:05:54,980 --> 00:05:56,879
And maybe we

175
00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:58,659
asked about who would you vote for

176
00:05:58,660 --> 00:06:00,199
for the legislature and Democrats

177
00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:02,079
had a small lead there about a four

178
00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:03,059
point lead.

179
00:06:03,060 --> 00:06:04,999
But that's about just general

180
00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:06,439
voting. We don't ask about

181
00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:08,479
individual races there.

182
00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:11,139
I do think that for

183
00:06:11,140 --> 00:06:13,959
Democrats chances in the fall.

184
00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:15,939
They certainly would benefit from

185
00:06:15,940 --> 00:06:17,899
a strong gubernatorial

186
00:06:17,900 --> 00:06:19,999
candidate and a winning

187
00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:22,559
Democratic campaign because

188
00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:24,399
that support at the governor's level

189
00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:26,289
can trickle down to

190
00:06:26,290 --> 00:06:28,789
the legislative races,

191
00:06:28,790 --> 00:06:30,729
I think it's way too early to

192
00:06:30,730 --> 00:06:33,049
have any sense about whether

193
00:06:33,050 --> 00:06:35,209
whoever the nominee is

194
00:06:35,210 --> 00:06:37,449
will emerge as a very

195
00:06:37,450 --> 00:06:39,749
strong candidate or not.

196
00:06:39,750 --> 00:06:41,089
So meanwhile, you're in the field

197
00:06:41,090 --> 00:06:43,009
again with a new poll

198
00:06:43,010 --> 00:06:45,589
to share with us next Wednesday.

199
00:06:45,590 --> 00:06:47,349
Things keep changing, so you have to

200
00:06:47,350 --> 00:06:48,969
keep doing new polls.

201
00:06:48,970 --> 00:06:50,969
This poll that will come out next

202
00:06:50,970 --> 00:06:52,829
Wednesday is only

203
00:06:52,830 --> 00:06:55,729
about Democratic primary voters,

204
00:06:55,730 --> 00:06:57,849
only about them, and we'll

205
00:06:57,850 --> 00:06:59,310
certainly ask about

206
00:07:00,450 --> 00:07:02,509
opinions of Crowley,

207
00:07:02,510 --> 00:07:04,709
vote again in the primary,

208
00:07:04,710 --> 00:07:06,789
and also Governor Evers' endorsement

209
00:07:06,790 --> 00:07:08,169
and whether people think that makes

210
00:07:08,170 --> 00:07:10,409
them more or less likely to support

211
00:07:10,410 --> 00:07:12,329
David Crowley.

212
00:07:12,330 --> 00:07:14,489
We will also be re-interviewing

213
00:07:14,490 --> 00:07:16,149
the people we've interviewed this

214
00:07:16,150 --> 00:07:17,989
past week, so we'll be able

215
00:07:17,990 --> 00:07:20,089
to see whether those undecided

216
00:07:20,090 --> 00:07:21,929
folks last week have

217
00:07:21,930 --> 00:07:24,169
moved any further towards decision

218
00:07:24,170 --> 00:07:25,669
making this week.

219
00:07:25,670 --> 00:07:27,509
The only drawback to this is it's a

220
00:07:27,510 --> 00:07:29,529
fairly short period of time, so

221
00:07:29,530 --> 00:07:31,509
we will still have two more

222
00:07:31,510 --> 00:07:33,689
weeks to election day when

223
00:07:33,690 --> 00:07:35,279
this poll is finished.

224
00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:36,779
Well, thank you for your work.

225
00:07:36,780 --> 00:07:37,780
Thank you.

226
00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:41,820
Yeah. And lots of links.