Another major shakeup in the
Democratic primary for governor as
Mandela Barnes drops out.
How does this change the race and
what are the remaining candidates
saying as they make their closing
pitches to voters?
This is Inside Wisconsin
Politics.
I'm Sean Johnson here with my
colleagues, Anya Van Wachtendonck,
Zach Schultz, and Rich Kramer in Eau
Claire. Hey everyone.
Hello.
So just when it seemed like this
Democratic primary for governor
couldn't get any wilder,
let's see, let's go through the
candidates here. David Crowley drops
out, Sarah Rodriguez drops out.
David Crowely drops back in.
We now have Mandela Barnes dropping
out of the race.
Some pretty big names there.
Anya, what happened?
I mean, I will give a little
behind-the-scenes entry for
our viewers. We taped a whole
different show right before this,
talking about the debate, and we
will get into that later.
And we got the news in our earpieces
that Mandela Barnes had dropped out.
So he released a video on social
media and interestingly, you know,
doesn't endorse another candidate,
looked pretty dejected, and
essentially said, we all can tell
the writing is on the wall of who
the nominee is going to be.
I assume he is alluding to Francesca
Hong, who is just carrying all these
polls. And he said, you
know, the number one thing to do is
to beat Tom Tiffany.
So it was not a ringing endorsement.
It did not seem like an
impassioned sort of choice
to step down, but certainly
some breaking news, you know
were less than two weeks out from
primary day.
Yeah, we got to tell you we're
recording this on a Thursday
afternoon, so by the time you watch
it or hear it, you may know more
about this story than we do right at
this moment. We can tell you right
now from the Journal Sentinel,
the decisions by the Barnes camp,
they said, came amid reporting
into allegations that Barnes was
taking advantage of his role in the
party to have sexual encounters with
young adult women.
We also read from Politico,
the announcement comes as Democratic
officials in the state brace for
damaging media.
Reports.
So, I mean, Zach, there are
different circumstances under which
a candidate can drop out.
It can be received in different
ways.
How would you characterize this one?
This is different from past
episodes, including the flip side of
this, when Mandela Barnes took
advantage of this in 2022 in a
Senate run, when the other
opponents in that primary dropped
out, and they dropped out gracefully
saying the only way at that time for
them to win the nomination would be
to go negative and hurt the party,
and they decided not to do that.
And they were rewarded for that as
being team players down the road.
Sarah Galewski was appointed
treasurer.
We've seen examples of this almost
two decades ago.
Scott Walker was going to run for
governor in 2006.
Party officials say, hey, why don't
you clear the field for Mark Green?
He did, and then he was the
nominee in 2010 when party officials
remembered he was graceful about
that. So on one hand, it could be
seen as Mandela Barnes seeing the
writing on the wall.
He wasn't going to win, but he has a
future in democratic politics in
Wisconsin.
That would be the normal way to look
at this as saying, well, there's
lots of future races he could run
for. But then when you combine this
with the reporting that we're
hearing, and the rumors that have
been running around
circles for quite a while now,
it doesn't have that same tone
to it. So this looks more of getting
ahead of the damaging news that
could be dropping less Graham
Plattner in the East
Coast Senate race, and more of just
keep your head down and get out of
the way so it becomes less of a
distraction, and he's forced to bow
out disgracefully as opposed to
bowing out in his own terms.
Yeah, you know, you alluded
to there, but in his message,
he did not say Francesca Hong's
name. He didn't say I'm dropping out
because she's the front runner and
that's good.
He didn't say I am dropping out and
I support a challenger because he's
kind of had some fights with them
recently.
Rich, you reported
on Mandela Barnes,
this campaign and in 2022, he
entered this race and
presented himself as the
front-runner and it seemed like
That's sort of...
Slowly slipped away
during this campaign.
And now this quite a
shocking arc to his story this
year.
Yeah, it's been something else.
I mean, in terms of name
recognition, he did enter the race
with more than any of the other
candidates, including Republican
Congressman Tom Tiffany.
And that was because of the 2022
Senate loss to
Ron Johnson. It was a close race.
And there was a lot of advertising.
So his name got around.
Um, but.
That race really hurt him also,
beyond whatever is going to be
reported or is being reported at
this moment about any improprieties.
He was damaged from that
Senate loss to Ron Johnson
among Democrats.
Even before he jumped into the race
for governor, there was an
op-ed that had former Lieutenant
Governor Barbara Lawton,
a Democrat that is very involved
in the party, said that
he shouldn't get in the race, that
he's proven that he can.
Can't win statewide, et
cetera. So there was that.
And then we started seeing in
the earlier days of this
gubernatorial primary
among the Democrats where people
were dropping out. They weren't
endorsing Barnes like they
did in 2022.
So that was a signal.
Then Governor Evers endorsed
someone besides Barnes,
who Barnes and Evers served together
for
years. So.
That was a sign and
now here we are.
It's really been just
a really interesting
ride for Barnes.
So his departure kind
of leaves the race in some ways
where it was, where there seems to
be this growing consensus out there
that this is Francesca Hong's race
to lose.
She is a democratic socialist, which
has sort of defined this campaign.
She was asked about her views
at this week's debate.
Let's give a listen to what she had
to say.
What democratic socialism is
is a form of government that puts
working class people first, that
puts work first.
The policies that we have been
working on, permanent affordability,
has broad bipartisan support
in every corner of the state.
Anya, you've covered her
campaign. You profiled her for
Wisconsin Public Radio.
How is she presenting her
brand of politics to
primary voters and also potentially
critics as this primary closes
out?
Yeah, I think she's been really
consistent, not just throughout this
campaign, but you know, throughout
her political career.
She was a member of the Democratic
Socialist Caucus in the Assembly.
She's running as a Democratic
socialist on the Democratic ticket.
And so you've seen that a lot in her
policy positions.
I think a little bit what we saw on
the debate stage was her trying to
nuance some of that, perhaps for
a more general election, again, as
she is this kind of runaway favorite
at the moment.
I saw some criticism actually from
national DSA members on
social media who were saying
essentially, oh, she's not socialist
enough, but I think she understands.
That there is going to be a
pretty ready-made line of attack
from Republicans based on some
of her past statements, based on
calling for defunding the police,
based on aligning with certain, you
know, sort of far left, more like
agitated sort of online figures,
that that gives them easy things to
kind of clip, which can
really kind of be hard to
oppose from a more kind of nuanced
position. And so I think we saw her
on the debate stage kind of trying
out some of these more biteable,
clippable ways of approaching her
politics.
Yeah, part of the question that led
to that answer there was,
hey, the Democratic Socialists of
America stand for getting rid
of prisons, getting rid of the
Senate. Are you with them?
And she said she didn't agree with
them on everything.
But Zach, I do kind of sense from
her a pivot toward
the general election in terms of the
way that she's answering these
questions, you
know, on, I don't know, you name it,
tax policy on
defund the police.
You know, what stood out to you.
She's definitely nuancing those
positions, because in politics,
if you're explaining, you're losing.
That phrase has been around for a
long time. So she's trying to
explain to general election voters
that she's not that kind of
socialist. She's a democratic
socialist, because Republicans
are comparing her to Venezuela.
I mean, that's Tom Tiffany's
line of attack that I heard on
Tuesday night during the debate.
I was covering one of his events.
And he's saying, well, if want to
know about socialism, you just have
to look at Venezuela when they're
eating the animals and they're
eatin' their shirts and...
There's nothing available for
anybody, and that's what's coming to
Wisconsin if you looked at Francesca
Hong. That's what you're gonna hear
from them.
So her trying to go more on the
lines of the old Milwaukee
socialists, like the sewer
socialists they were called, of
like, let's work on infrastructure
and public schools and the public
good, the public welfare.
She's trying to get ahead of some of
those attacks and explain that's
where her socialist policies lie
less in the international
communist socialist stuff that we
hear from the countries that fall
apart that claim to be socialist.
And Rich, you covered the debate.
She was asked about, I mean,
everybody there on that debate stage
was saying, let's tax millionaires
to pay for stuff in state
government.
She got a little more specific
than others, and yet it
seemed like potentially an
incomplete answer based on her
record.
Yeah, that's right.
Her website has
all kinds of very specific numbers.
And also, she's been in the
Assembly for some time now.
And she's taken a
lot of votes. She's introduced a lot
a legislation.
So on the debate stage,
essentially, she was saying, well,
for millionaires, it'd be a 1%
tax increase to something like
8.6% versus
whatever it is
now. So she said
that. But...
Right away online, Democrats
even, were saying, well, you know,
actually, she's got a plan to
create a new tax bracket and set it
at 17 point something
percent, which is
true. That was part of a
plan she put out in the
legislature, so she
talked really
generally about it,
and so then others had to go and
dig up what she said in the past.
Um, we did mention last week
that we were gonna wait for another
story to develop this police
shooting in Madison and
you've heard all the candidates for
governor come out and say, you know,
we need to have a swift
investigation of that.
Uh, Zach, I think it's fair to say
that Francesca Hong's response
to the shooting was certainly the
most attention getting.
She went out to the site of the
shooting with the bullhorn and
called it an execution.
What is she saying now and why'd
she use that word in her words?
Well, she was asked during the
debate, would you make
the same statement as governor?
And her answer was no, because
the governor has a bigger megaphone,
and essentially eluding it wouldn't
be appropriate for the governor to
make that statement.
What's interesting is you're
supposed to campaign how you would
govern, and she did make
that as a candidate,
only a few weeks away from a
primary.
And the video of her doing it, the
crowd is clearly trying to goad her
into using word murder and she
at that moment takes a pause and
then says execution.
So she was even calibrating what she
was saying in that moment.
This wasn't as much of an off the
cuff statement as you might think.
When you cover her in speeches, she
is very measured in her in
her thought and her speech.
She pauses before she answers a
question. She's thinking about it's
not just letting the words fly
like we see on social media
sometimes with some politicians and
then worry about retracting it
later. So for her to use that word
was a intentional thing,
and then to say, well, I wouldn't as
governor. Does call into question,
like what is the line then?
Why use it now in this case and not?
And we know it will be used against
her. Tom Tiffany's already talking
about that.
They're attacking the Democratic
candidate simply because the street
where the shooting took place is
still shut down by protestors,
saying that Madison needs to get
control of the streets and that as
governor, he would obviously have
that street open by now.
So they're going to use this against
her as a candidate, assuming that
she wins this primary.
And the question is, how does she
continue explaining those statements
and those votes to general election
voters?
Let's talk about David Crowley,
Milwaukee County's executive, who
got back in this race as
the Francesca Hong alternative.
And I got to think that Mandela
Barnes' departure from this
race potentially changes
the calculus for him.
Rich, what were we hearing from
David Crowly
as it relates to Francesca Hung up
to this point in the race?
And has it been catching on?
Is there is there a sign that this
theory?
That Crowley supporters had is
actually working.
Well, yeah, the
claim that we've heard from
David Crowley and some of the other
Democratic candidates is that
the Republican Governors
Association is essentially trying
to get Hong elected
during the primary so that it would
be easier for Tom Tiffany to
defeat her. So that was the line
going into it.
And they...
The Oh,
I lost it.
I'm sorry.
Yeah, yeah, I mean, I will
say one thing about those those ads
that you mentioned the Republican
ads I
think they are kind of Doing
there's they're serving two goals
right now for Republicans.
They're kind of getting bang for
their buck in a couple ways I
do think there's a pretty strong
case to be made that they were
there to prop up
Francesca Hong They're saying
that she's a very liberal candidate
in these liberal media markets, but
I think now Republicans
do view her as the general
election candidate in the way that
they're talking about her.
So they are kind of getting a head
start on these attacks
in some way.
Anya, David
Crowley and Mandela Barnes were kind
of going at it.
And as their candidacies
progressed in this race,
as Mandela Barnes kind of felt like
David Crowely had blocked his
path.
Now that Mandela Barns is out of the
way, is there a
boost coming for Crowley?
Yeah, I mean, you know, it is
possible that among other concerns,
Mandela Barnes felt snubbed by the
fact that Governor Tony Evers backed
Crowley and not him.
He was his lieutenant governor.
And so we saw barbs,
I means like almost schoolyard barbs
on social media, primarily
coming from Barnes
towards Crowley, but then Crowley
would sort of respond in kind.
So really like a really kind of
it felt like bad blood between them.
One of the arguments that the Barnes
camp has been making as other
candidates have dropped out is we
will absorb those votes.
And so now part of the question is
where will these remaining
sort of Barnes votes go?
Will they go further left towards
Hong? Will they go further towards
the center, towards Crowley?
And of course, I haven't checked the
numbers recently, but as of last
week, 100,000 absentee ballots
had already been turned in.
I imagine that number is much higher
now. So, there's also the question
of like... Of the remaining
voters who haven't cast their
ballots, some of them are undecided,
but those who were leaning towards
Barnes, now where are they going to
go, especially if these
allegations start to come out and it
becomes an even more chaotic news
cycle that distracts from the actual
meat of the campaign.
Uh, Rich, you know, real
quick on that law, on those
ballots, there was a lawsuit filed
to try to get them counted,
a judge ruled on that this week,
what does that mean for those
absentee ballots?
Well, yeah, the judge dismissed
or denied to issue an injunction
essentially blocking the Wisconsin
Elections Commission guidance saying
that you cannot,
if you have sent in your absentee
ballot, you cannot ask for
it to be spoiled and get a new one.
So essentially what that means is
that people who have already cast
ballots for,
you know, Lieutenant Governor Sara
Rodriguez, Mandela Barnes,
Missy Hughes, they're essentially
out of luck.
At this point so
Unless that changes unless this is
rushed through an appeal process up
to the Supreme Court and the Supreme
court makes a ruling before August
11th it kind of seems like
Those votes will be counted, but
they won't go anywhere
Zach, we had a couple of polls out
this week.
They both showed Francesca Hong
with at least a 20-point
lead.
One of them showed Mandela Barnes.
Marquette showed Mandella Barnes.
And second, David Crowley down at
about 7%.
But in the Marquett poll,
we're looking at a third of voters
still undecided.
Now Mandela Barns is out of the
race. You got all those undecide
voters.
David Crowely is still there.
Could this race shake
up and change in the closing days?
Well.
Every time we say no, we're proven
wrong, it does get shaken up
by larger events than what we
probably could have predicted on
this show.
But the question is, is there
enough room for anyone to
gain enough ground to catch the lead
that Franchesca Hong looks like she
has? Just talking about those
absentee ballots that have been
cast, they're not getting counted
back.
The question will be, once this race
is all over, will the margin
of votes that Mandela Barnes
and Rodrigues received add
up to the amount.
That the second place person took,
or will they have made a difference
in some spoiling manner?
That'll be interesting math to see,
but by then, we'll have a winner.
Yeah, we're either going to have
a massive comeback
here by one of these candidates
coming back to,
I guess, edge out Francis Kong
at the end, or else we're going to
the most interesting governor's
race in the country this November
between a democratic socialist
and somebody that Democrats will
paint as an election denier in
Tom Tiffany. So get ready for
a lot of money and ads to come to
your state of Wisconsin, which we
are very used to.
That's all the time we have for
today. Thanks for joining us.
This has been Inside Wisconsin
Politics.
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