After Sarah Rodriguez drops out of
the race for governor, David Crowley
drops back in.
We know Tony Evers supports him.
We don't know yet what voters think.
This is Inside Wisconsin Politics.
I'm Sean Johnson here with my
colleagues, Anya Van Wegtendonck,
Zach Schultz, and Rich Kramer in Eau
Claire. Hey everyone.
Hey. Hello.
So this race is pure chaos
now, wouldn't you say?
I mean, when you think about it,
just last week, we were talking
about Sarah Rodriguez's campaign
sort of teetering, shortly after
it fell, and then almost
immediately you had David Crowley,
who had been out of the race, get
back in.
Anya, why did David Crowley
take that step so quickly
after Sarah Rodriguez dropped out?
Why did it need to be him in this
race?
Yeah, I mean, it's a really great
question, and I think we're kind of
trying to hammer down exactly what
that eight-day calculus kind
of was. So he dropped out, he backed
Sarah Rodriguez, a couple days
later, she made this announcement
that there were issues with her
campaign, but she was going to stay
in. And I spoke to him a little bit
ago and his timeline of events is
essentially that she informed him
what was going on.
He reiterated his support for
her campaign. Started hearing
from backers.
All week that they wanted him back
in that essentially there was
different information than than what
he had dropped out on And we
started hearing from sources that
maybe he was going to get back in
with the the finance deadline
Um never heard back from him when I
when I directly asked this last week
And then we started to hear the
rumblings on friday as
sarah announced that she was
dropping out that he was Going to
announce the next day and then we
kind of got that confirmation.
So it really was almost a
Trading of who was going?
To be potentially this front runner
the other thing that of course came
with his announcement was Governor
Tony Evers endorsing him
and so that he suddenly became
the sort of uh person who was
tied to that administration in this
race.
Yeah, I don't feel like you can talk
about the Crowley candidacy without
talking about Governor Tony Evers in
that decision.
Zach, why did Tony Ebers,
who has told us repeatedly
throughout this primary cycle,
I'm not going to get involved, why
did he get involved now and why did
he say David Crowley is my guy?
Well, he always, the
second half of the statement, if I'm
not gonna evolve, is that I might
decide later. And that always felt
like keeping the back door open, but
unlikely to be used.
Well, He went through the backdoor.
He played that card. He definitely
did. He played his Euker card as his
last Jack in the hole for that.
The reason why seems it
only can be that he and
others that think like him are not
happy with Francesca Hong and the
lead she has.
Throughout this entire race.
All the polling, including the stuff
we're gonna talk about later in this
very show, shows that she is a clear
front runner for the Democratic
primary.
And really there's been no ability
for anyone else to
centralize all of the support for
the centrist, moderate Tony Evers'
heir to take over that position.
We had heard that Evers and Crowley
got along, that they liked each
other. How much of that personal
relationship matters, we don't know.
It matters a lot in politics.
Sara Rodriguez clearly had that
position even without the
endorsement. So Tony Evert could
say, I'm not the kingmaker here.
Clearly him stepping in is that he
felt he needed to use some of his
political capital to try and
boost someone to take on
Francesca Hong and make it a two
person race.
Yeah, Rich, we've been kind of
hinting at that Hong dynamic,
all campaign cycle,
but until now, Democrats hadn't been
out there saying it.
You covered the Crowley announcement
this past Saturday.
He's saying it now.
Yeah, I mean, he didn't name
her when he announced, but
it was pretty obvious who he was
talking about.
He referenced the Republican
Governors Association, the
RGA,
putting up ads that it says
are attacking her, but
Democrats feel that it's
actually boosting her and aimed
at trying to get her to clear the
Democrats' nomination.
So he mentioned that,
and it's pretty obvious
what's going on here.
So what does it say about what
Tony Evers thinks about the rest of
the field, Anya?
Well, I think it was a bit of a
dance that he needed to be doing
because he does have relationships
with everybody else in the field.
So obviously it was his current
lieutenant governor who stepped out,
Sara Rodriguez, but his former
lieutenant governor, Mandela Barnes,
is in there. His former DOA
secretary, Joel Brennan, and then
Calder Royce, who's been in the
legislature alongside him for
quite a number of years.
David Crowley in some ways is
actually the person he has.
The least professional relationship
with just because you know David
operates at the county level he's
not in the the state legislature
quite as much so they haven't
necessarily you know worked he
hasn't served in the administration
I guess I should say and so it's
interesting that this is the person
that he's choosing to back because
he does have you know as
you say he he pulled the one card
that he kind of has and he's putting
it behind this person who dropped
out who had said that he didn't have
the finances who said he didn't have
the path.
And so Tony Evers is saying.
Both I back this person, I back his
politics, and I think I can help
him get that path.
I will say if you just walk back a
few years, David Crowley used to be
a legislative staffer.
The governor's chief of staff used
to be a legislator staffer who was
called David Crowely a friend and
she is influential in the governor's
office.
So there's possible that
he was getting advice there that
David Crowly is a good candidate.
So what's the theory of how this
works out though, Zach?
I mean, the governor office and
Crowely are going into this thing
thinking we're gonna take this big
risk. They must think they could
win. How does it work?
That's a good question.
And we have seen how quickly the
dynamics in this race can change
on the ground.
We have seen candidates rise and
fall according to finance reports,
according to polling, candidates
dropping out, coming back in.
Things are happening rapidly.
And one thing, it feels like it's
really close to this primary
election because ballots have
already been returned.
The Democratic Party is worried
about people not being able to spoil
those ballots if they
back someone who's dropped out.
And there's a...
There's still a long way to go,
though. There's a still a couple of
weeks. There's more polls, there's a
lot more ad spending, and as
we're gonna explain, there was
actually an incident that happened
in Madison last night with the
police that involved shooting.
These kind of things shake up races
in a big way by putting candidates
in difficult positions to
see how they react, and they are
judged, according to VAT.
Yeah, we do want to acknowledge that
that shooting people are reacting to
that shooting that took place
Wednesday.
There's a vigil tonight or Thursday
as we record this.
This is going to be a thing you've
already seen the candidates react to
some very strongly.
It's going to affect the race.
We're just going to take a pause
here and wait for more information
to learn more about this before
we talk about it in this setting.
Rich, turning to something.
Very explicitly political.
The Marquette poll came out this
week. We've been looking forward to
this for a while.
The last time Marquett pulled on the
race for governor was in March.
So why did this one that we've
been kind of marking on our calendar
seem so incomplete?
You're saying we marked the
Marquette poll on our calendars?
I mean, we might have, yes.
It's because it is incomplete.
It's not a full picture.
But it's through no fault of
the pollsters, who I'll mention
in a second.
But the questions went out to
Wisconsin voters
between July 8th and
the 16th.
Well, July 8 is when
the things kind of got crazy
in the primary.
Crowley had dropped out on July 8.
When the questions were out, so he
wasn't included in the results
that we saw.
And also, the poll asked about
Rodriguez. Her information was
included, but she ended her
campaign essentially right
after they got the data
back from their surveys.
So it's still good information,
still gave us a sense of where
things are at, at least among those
that were included in the poll
results, but it's just
a partial picture.
So I wanted to...
Give a shout out to pollster Charles
Franklin, who I know watches this
podcast.
And we all really
appreciate the work that Charles and
the rest of his
team do.
And I think we can sympathize, at
least I can, that we've all been
in a position where we're writing a
story or we just published a story
only to have the news change and
essentially make that story totally
outdated, and you have to start from
scratch. So.
It's like throwing darts at a moving
target. It's pretty tough.
So kudos to them for doing what they
could.
Rich Kramer looking to boost his
approval rating with Marquette's
pollster there with a with a shout
out So let's take a look at those
results real quick of
the candidates who remain in the
race This is when you don't include
David Crowley and you don't include
the voters who picked Sarah
Rodriguez Francesca
Hong leads the pack with 27%
followed by Mandela Barnes with 18
Joel Brennan with 5 Keldroys
with 2 and 48
percent undecided
So Francesca Hong leads
the field.
This is the third Marquette poll
that she's done that in this year.
Does she have this locked up?
I mean, I think if she had it locked
up, we wouldn't be seeing the deck
shuffling that we keep seeing
because she does very well
in these polls. She has a very
energetic base of support, and
yet she doesn't have the power
players kind of unifying behind her
because they keep trying to find an
alternative. I think, if she, you
know, had it lock up, so to speak,
there would be a confidence from the
sort of democratic authorities, the
democratic kingmakers that would say
that she can win both the primary
and win the general.
And I think we are.
Seeing maybe implicitly more than
explicitly a real concern that she
can't. And so who can they kind of
bring in in order to beat
Tom Tiffany?
And so she does very well in a
Democratic poll, although again, I
think we also have to talk about
that 48% undecided number.
But can she do all in a general?
That's sort of the big question that
Democrats are very worried about.
Yeah, let's talk about that.
48%, nearly half of the people, half
of the Democratic voters who
responded to this saying, I don't
know who I'm going to vote for.
Zach, what's the deal?
We've been doing podcasts about this
rate all summer.
Why are so many people not
sure about this, what we thought was
going to be a very high profile race
for governor?
Because those 48 percent make up a
lot of people who don't watch this
podcast, so they are not as
informed. There are a lot people who
do not pay attention to politics
until the very end.
I just got the first campaign
flyer in my mailbox this morning.
They are starting to come.
Those people will follow along.
Another thing that happens in
primaries pretty regularly is people
wait to see if there is a
frontrunner. They don't like to
waste their vote on someone who will
not win.
Or they're gonna say, well, I like
this person, but they're in fourth
place and they're not polling very
high. Why would I throw it behind
them? Who's my next favorite?
Which is another good thing that the
Marquette poll does. They do, who is
your next favorite in line.
Another thing to look at is Tom
Tiffany's unopposed and Republican
primary.
There's still 30% undecided there.
Now, they're going to vote
for the Republican, but I think you
can take that 30%,
put it over and compare it to the
48% for the Democrats and go, okay,
there's just a lot of people that
either aren't tuned in yet.
Or they're waiting to the last
minute to figure out who is actually
the front runner, who do I trust
to be the candidate for my
favorite party.
A large portion of Wisconsinites
have just been living their lives
this year, it turns out.
And kudos to them.
So what about the candidates
who are toward the
bottom of this polling, Joel Brennan
and Kelder-Royce, Brennan at 5%,
Royce at 2%.
Where does that leave them?
Rich, I'll go to you first.
What do you think?
Well, I mean, it
leaves them in the position that
they've been in for a while.
They're just towards the bottom of
the heap in terms of the polling
we've seen.
So ultimately, they and
their supporters and their donors
have decisions to make, whether they
stay in the race or whether they
drop out and endorse someone
like a Crowley or a Hong or a
Barnes or whoever.
So I've never been in that position.
I don't know what all you have
to think about.
They've clearly invested a lot of
time and resources into their
races thus far, so maybe they won't
drop out, but at
some point you would think that
those are conversations happening
within the campaigns.
Seems like they are saying, we have
money.
And if, you know, sharing
their own internal polling, if
voters get to know us,
they like us.
And so a lot of race left
to run from their point of view.
Joel Brennan is actually running
probably the most negative ads I've
seen in the primary, where he
lists all the sort of front runner
candidates and explains kind
of explicitly why
they can't win in November,
his words.
Anya I mean,
what's going on with Joel Brennan's
decision there?
Yeah, I mean, you're right.
I think it is a kind of tonal shift.
We've talked about some of these,
you know, attacks on social media,
but this is a really kind of
negative ad. It has the,
you know, the color tint over
the like the opponents that you
normally kind of see more in a
general.
And I think it goes to this kind
of game that voters tend to
play in competitive primaries
in such a swing state like
Wisconsin, where again, you are not
taking for granted that the winner
of a primary is going to win in
general, as might happen in other
states.
Where Democratic voters right now
are like playing 3D chess.
They are not just trying to identify
who is the candidate that I support,
but who is the candidate that my
neighbors are going to support?
And so therefore, how can I make
sure to kind of get the most out of
my vote? And so he's speaking to
that electability question and
essentially saying, I am the most
electable. And then when you do have
48% undecided,
there may be an argument to be made,
or he's trying to make the argument
of like, well, what would happen if
all 48% of them went to me, right?
That's a lot of extra voters.
So yes, he's now.
3% to Fran Hong's,
you know, 27% to Mandela Barnes's
18%, but if he gets half
of those undecideds, he's a
frontrunner, and so maybe he's kind
of banking on that.
There you go.
Marquette did look at,
well, they looked at a lot, but they
had some head-to-head matchups in
there.
If you look at those, you get a
slightly different story of the
Democrats in the race right now, not
including David Crowley.
Only Mandela Barnes defeats Tom
Tiffany in a head- to-head-to
matchup by a 44 to
40% split among registered
voters. Tiffany leads Francesca
Hong, 43 to
40%. So...
A plus four for Mandela-Barnes,
minus three for Francesca Hong.
Zach, I mean, I think it kind of
begs the question, why
did the establishment not
rally around Mandela Barnes?
I think that's the question Mandela
Barnes's campaign is asking and
saying you might have made a mistake
if you are looking for a Hong
alternative.
That's certainly what they are
pushing right now.
But I think one of the distinctions
is Barnes came in with the most
name recognition of everyone due to
his 2022 U.S.
Senate run, his close loss to
Ron Johnson.
And it was always a question because
he also had the highest negatives
that came with that hangover
from that election.
And he started running this
race as the frontrunner.
He introduced himself as saying, I'm
the one to take on Tom Tiffany.
He did the thing where he ignores
the rest of the field and kind of
pretends they weren't there.
And then partway through this
election, I think he or his campaign
realized, oh no, Francesca Hong is
there. I do have to take her
seriously.
So we kind of had to shift his tone
to talking about his competitors,
where I think at first he was
running the 2022 U.S.
Senate primary where all of his
competitors dropped out at the end,
and he basically had the field to
himself. That didn't happen.
So it is a question of.
Did the rest of the field say,
you've had your chance, and you
couldn't make your case.
Now we're going to go with someone
else.
Or is it simply that they think
heritage negatives are too high,
despite the head-to-head matchup
looking good?
So it is a legitimate question for
Evers. It's a legitimate questions
for voters out there.
How should they take all these
different pieces of information?
And that's what happens when you
have this many centrist
or moderate candidates all trying to
claim that one mantle, is they can
divide the field, which is what
they're doing.
And now Mandela Barnes is attacking
the establishment, which was
definitely his friend four years
ago.
We should talk real quick before
we wrap up here today
about what happens with
all these tens of thousands of
voters who cast
absentee ballots and
maybe want to change those ballots.
A short answer.
Can they?
No.
Well... Well? Well?
Not at this moment.
Yeah, according to Wisconsin
Election Commission guidance,
the answer is no.
That guidance was issued,
voted on on July 9th, issued on July
10th.
Anya, you had a well.
Well, yes, so, you know, truly
moments before we started taping,
I got sent motions that were filed
in court, so there is now a lawsuit
about this.
I did not have a chance to open
those documents, and so we won't
talk about them today.
I skimmed them.
But I suspect that we'll talk about
it soon. They're saying that the commission is wrong.
Yeah, that's right. And so that's
something that's going to need to
get resolved pretty quickly.
The primary is August 11th.
And so for people who
you are talking tens of thousands
of people who voted 80,000
people have now voted absentee
So that's definitely something that
we'll have to watch Get
resolved through the courts
potentially but as of right now
those votes cannot be counted in
this very quickly shifting race
for governor Well, they're counted,
but they just can't be there's
qualified and They
will absolutely actually be counted
no matter who you voted
them for but changing your mind is
not a reason uh to
to recast your ballot according to
wisconsin elections commission
guidance So that's all
the time we have for today.
Thanks for joining us.
This has been inside wisconsin
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