The field of candidates in
Wisconsin's Democratic primary for
governor gets smaller as
the campaign ad war heats up and
the vice president visits Wisconsin.
This is Inside Wisconsin Politics.
I'm Sean Johnson here with Anya Van
Wengtendonk and Zach Schultz, hey
you two. Hello.
So, we've been talking about this as
a crowded Democratic primary
for a long time now,
and we had seven Democratic
candidates just a few weeks ago,
then that was narrowed down to six
as Missy Hughes got out of the race,
David Crowley this week gets out of
the race. Now we're down to five.
Zach, is it still crowded
or has this race shifted to
you?
In a meaningful way?
I think the crowd it depends more on
the lanes of what we're talking
about. I think there's clearly a
progressive lane, there's clearly
a more establishment center
government lane, and then there's a
question of if there's room in
between for any of the rest of them
to kind of stake their own area or
if they're competing for those two
groups. But there's clearly is this
sense as the two candidates
have dropped out that have now
endorsed Sarah Rodriguez, that there
is an establishment going on.
And that fits this national
theme that we're seeing of
establishment Dems worrying about
progressive Dems potentially
undermining chances to win seats
in November versus
progressives who are saying, no,
we are the ones that are going to
win these primaries and win in
November, get behind us as we
keep going forward.
So there's definitely a shrinkage
there, but it's almost a shrink
agenda with lanes as opposed to
these individual candidates.
Anya, how do you see those lanes?
I mean, I think just a few weeks
ago, I was kind of having a hard
time putting the candidates into
different lanes or buckets,
however you wanna do it.
What are the lanes now as you see
it?
Yeah, I think Zach sort of hit the
nail on the head with establishment
versus progressive.
And one way that we're seeing that
is when these candidates are
dropping out that they are endorsing
other candidates. There's a world in
which you drop out and you say,
I love my party and all
I want is for a Democrat to win.
And David Crowley did that kind of
initially in his original
announcement that he was stepping
down. He didn't immediately endorse
anyone. He said the most important
thing is just that somebody beats
Tom Tiffany in the fall.
And then this morning came out and
endorsed Sarah Rodriguez.
So I think that's a sign that
people are kind of choosing teams
and trying to say, who do I think is
the best ability for
Democrats to win in November?
Is it the sort of Hong progressive
lane? Is it Rodriguez more sort of
establishment lane?
Nobody that I've heard has come
out and said, well, we got to stop
Francesca Hong, you know?
But we've seen this debate that
you've referenced at the national
level where you have sort of the
national establishment Democrats
fighting against this,
you know, democratic socialist
caucus that's growing.
Is there an unspoken, we got a
stop Francesco Hong in all this,
or are we making that
up? Are we looking for conflict
where there is none here in
Wisconsin?
I don't think it'd be wise for
anyone to say that out loud from the
Democratic Party because there's a
very good chance that Hong can win
this and then they have to unite
behind her.
So that is the, the other half of
this game is you can drop out and
you can endorse someone that you
would prefer, but then you still
want to create a sense of party
unity. That is still the goal
is for the Democrats in their
minds is to beat Tom Tiffany and
whether that is Francesca Hong or
whether that's Sarah Rodriguez or
Mandela Barnes or Brennan or
Royce or anyone that's still in this
race at this point.
They have to worry about that in the
long run. So in the short run, we're
not seeing some of the disunity of
attacking each other.
That was a potential with a more
crowded race.
There's still time.
There's still million dollar ad buys
coming up.
Calderoy has just announced an
hour ago that she's got one point
two million that she's going to
announce and she's gonna spend every
last penny of it. She's not going to
drop out of this race.
And she has a history in some of
these big competitive elections of
going a little.
Contrarian towards the end.
So I don't think it's going to be
all quiet and rosy from here
until August. There's going be some
fireworks as they try and
create that last separation to
hopefully put themselves over the 30
to 35 percent that may be needed to
win.
Anya, you were
all set to do this profile of
David Crowley, which, you know,
it just sounds like it's not gonna
happen at this point.
But can you kind of talk through
why it didn't work out for his
campaign from your perspective?
I mean, there's a world
where you can imagine David Crowly
being seen as one of the front
runners in this race, and it never
felt like that way as this campaign
unfolded.
Yeah, one of the ways that he was
positioning himself throughout was
essentially, you know, I had the
cities on lock.
I am a Milwaukee native.
I have been able to work with the
suburbs. I represent a county that
straddles suburban and urban areas,
and I can hold the line on rural
areas. So he was essentially making
this pitch of like, I can be this
kind of statewide candidate for many
people. One of the things that came
up while I was trying to write this
profile that is no longer, you now,
whenever we write profile.
Poor went out for my having a little
bit free time this weekend.
But you always look for both
supporters and critics.
And I could not find a critic
of David Crowley. I called people
who have been on the record
criticizing his policies
and some of how he's handled, for
example, the lapse of health
insurance at the county level.
And even his most vocal critics were
like, I really like him as a person,
and I think he worked really well in
Madison. And these are conservative
Republicans that I'm calling.
And so I think that was kind of
where he fit in, is this really kind
of.
Affable person who gets
along well, who plays nice with
others. And I think in a certain
way, what we're seeing is that maybe
that is not as appealing to voters,
that voters are mad and
things are really hard for a lot of
people right now. And maybe they
want somebody who seems like
a little bit of a fighter, maybe
like a little of a FU
to some of the institutions
that they are not feeling very happy
with right now
So I think Sarah Rodriguez would
obviously say, this is great for
me, he's endorsing me.
Did you notice that?
This is unquestionably good
news for me.
Is there a case that this is good
for Mandela Barnes?
His campaign says, yes, we
benefit the most.
They're polling to show it.
Already making that case in
everyone's inboxes that will listen.
And I think there's a rational
argument, especially for those that
kind of follow this from a distance
that put people into those other
broader categories.
If we have two African-American men
with Milwaukee roots that have
connections to that part of the
state, deep establishment ties to
winning lots of local elections
there, that you could argue that
some people may say, well, that's
a natural transition.
And if you liked David Crowley, you
should also like Mandela Barnes.
They don't have the same electoral
history. They don't have the record
of working in Madison.
They have challenged, Mandela Barnes
has challenged members within his
own party. He's run a statewide
contest. David Crowley is known for
working more with Republicans as
part of his pitch, as I've worked
with people to help rural Wisconsin
with his bills for local
issues.
So there's an argument at
one optic that this absolutely
should help Mandela-Barnes.
And then there is the other end of
it, of who.
If there is 5% that Crawley
had in the state,
were they looking at him as more of
that centrist candidate that knows
how to make government work and
won't be too crazy or too loud, more
of a Tony Evers style, aw,
shucks, let's all work together and
make things function?
Or were they look at him as more, we
need someone from that part of the
state to fight for us.
And that goes back to that original
argument we've been having.
So, were his 5%, those
let's get it done or let's fight?
I think that could determine where
some of those voters go.
And I think it's a sign that this
race has kind of flown under the
radar this year in that we
haven't heard people complaining
about, gosh, you're being bombarded
by all these political ads.
There has not been an advertising
blitz in this race the way that
we've seen in the races
for Supreme Court that we're used to
by now, or a November
general election campaign,
the kind of ad blitz you're gonna
see in a few months.
And so in that context,
how does it matter?
I guess when Sarah Rodriguez says,
I'm gonna have a million dollar ad
buy that I'm going to pay for with
my campaign in
this sort of, you know, under the
radar race.
You know, one person I once spoke
to, a political scientist I once
spoke to kind of explained that
money in politics kind of serves two
functions. So there's money as
money, right?
Like the thing that you use to buy
things. And she has a million
dollars to spend on this ad, but
then it's also money as a signal as
sort of a signal of your strength,
the signal of, um, you know, maybe
I want other candidates to kind back
off because I have this in my bank
account, what do you have?
And so in this case, it's kind of
that, that twofer where both she
will be able to get.
A pretty sizable amount
of spread for her money
paying directly from her campaign,
but then also it signals to the
other candidates, like what do you
got, right? And so it kind of,
again, is her kind of establishing
that she is a front runner because
she has this money to spend.
And so maybe she's also trying to,
you know, sort of intimidate others
who may not have that, right, like
she's sending the signal of come
and get me.
I kind of wondered if that was a
factor in Crowley dropping out,
actually, you know, because they
happened pretty close together and I
imagine a decision like that builds
up more than just overnight.
And it came right after the
fundraising deadline and so it's
possible, you know, that campaigns
had their internal goals of like if
we hit X by certain date,
we're still viable.
And one of the things he said in his
dropout was like, it is clear I will
not become the Democratic nominee.
And so clearly there's like a
calculus of what makes that clear
and maybe money was part of it.
Yeah, you know, she's got at least a
million dollars, according to her,
and she has this outside group that
has been spending money on her
behalf kind of throughout the year,
and they don't have to report their
donors and kind of like
the Wild West in terms of
fundraising.
The tone of the ad is,
well, she says a bad word to start
out with.
There's a bleep off the top of
the ad and that's obviously very
intentional They craft these ads
with a lot of money spent on the
people writing the ads Speaking
to specific audiences and I think
there's a lot to actually analyze
within the decision of that word
alone off the topic I think so do I
think the first reaction that I have
is this is a sign of the coarseness
of American politics since Donald
Trump entered the platform
in the atmosphere more than a decade
ago is that it's acceptable
for your political candidate to use
an expletive in their ad, even if
it's bleeped out, as a way of
showing their rawness, their
approachability, the way that normal
people speak at maybe
not the dinner table, but at least
at the bar or with friends.
I think there's a sense of that does
make them more real in the same way
that Tony Evers has been let off the
hook time and time again for
swearing over and over because- He
likes it up.
He seems like this kind old
man and when he says it he really
means it and if someone else says it
oh that's coarse and disgusting so
it's definitely a change in that
atmosphere but it also goes back to
the original question we have this
is a nicely themed episode Sean of
the establishment versus the rage
if Rodriguez does represent
the establishment in the center she
is the lieutenant governor at this
point but she's the one showing
a little more flair a little more
fight with the words that she's
dropping off the top and talking
about she'll fight for Thank you.
She's definitely reaching out to
bring the rest of that Democratic
primary audience over
to her to say, I'm not just the
person that is the establishment and
that I'm the sitting lieutenant
governor and the first person to
enter the race.
I'm also the person who will swear
and fight for you.
The other person who likes to swear
a lot in this race, Francesca Hong.
She's got a history of dropping a
few F bombs out there.
So I think that shows this broad
spectrum and this interest in these
two different categories of voters.
Yeah, I mean, I'm reminded that
Francesca Hong, in, I believe, her
introductory speech in the assembly
dropped an F-bomb.
And in her final speech in the
Assembly, if you ever had a chance
to see that, she just let one linger
as she bid farewell
to her colleagues there.
And plenty in between.
Those weren't the only two.
I think it's expected.
I mean, I think it's expect that in
today's politics right now, I think
Democrats are so mad at
President Trump that you
have to show in your ads that you're
not just like an old-time
Democrat, that you are going to get
up there and fight, fight, fight.
I think that is the word.
And again, that you are not sort of
part of this establishment that
people are so angry with and do see
as, you know, too moderate or
too incremental.
And so they don't want these
sort of consultant polished
candidates, right? They want people
who are more real.
That's certainly part of the appeal
of Hong. I keep hearing that from
voters who support her is that she
seems like she is who she's
always been in the same way that you
kind of hear about Bernie Sanders.
And you know it's hard this week to
talk about politics without
mentioning sort of the Graham
Plattner situation in Maine.
But one of the kind of series of
reactions to that has been,
now that he's dropped out, the
progressive wing saying, OK, but
voters clearly wanted his politics,
if not sort of all of the other
things that went along with it.
So they're waiting to see whether,
you know, the Democratic Party, if
they try to shoehorn in a more
establishment sort of candidate.
And so I think we're seeing these
like real fights.
And so Wisconsin, I think, will be
another kind of bellwether, maybe
not in the sort fireworks
and really scandalous way of what's
going on in Maine, but I think that
we're having sort of our own version
of that play out right here.
Yeah, I mean, I think national eyes
are elsewhere right now.
But over the next month, we are
going to have a real debate among
Democrats here about what it means
to be their party in
2026.
What about Mandela Barnes, as
we kind of look at other advertising
in this race.
He is one of the other candidates
who at least through his own money
and through that outside money has
been up on the air, right?
He's gotten out there that it's
hard to figure out if he's rerunning
his Senate race and
living off that experience of like,
I'm the guy you remember, you liked
me before, I got the most votes of
anyone who's lost a US Senate race.
I should have won, but I was the
only one that lost to an incumbent.
Or if he is running a new race, but
it doesn't feel like there's a
different message than there was
before. So he's definitely running
on that platform.
And the question is, where does he
fall within these frameworks we've
talked about? Because he's got
establishment history.
He's also got very progressive
history.
The question is, does he carry
through to voters to say, no, I'm
the best of both worlds?
And how much does that loss
in the Senate race still linger
over the top of him, as his
opponents have used it against them
on the campaign trail?
It does seem like when he got into
the race, his message was,
I am the front runner here.
It's just a matter of time.
I am gonna set the agenda
in this race and I'm focused on
November.
You're now starting to see Sarah
Rodriguez make that same
general argument.
Look, these candidates are coming in
endorsing me.
The state party in
these straw polls has been
supporting me, but
we don't know.
We don't, Mandela Barnes did come in
here with actual name recognition.
That nobody else could really match.
And so we'll find out soon whether
the other candidates have kind of
cracked the consciousness of people
who've been on their summer breaks
here.
Well, and one thing that should also
be noted is that while the Democrats
are kind of working all of this out
amongst themselves, and we are
devoting so much air time to what
they're talking about, Tom Tiffany
essentially has the Republican feel
to himself. And so he just launched
his own, his, I think, fourth
ad campaign, and it shows him having
a pancake breakfast.
And it's like this very kind of
wholesome, folksy, you know,
all-American, I'm a normal
guy, you betcha, right?
And because he kind of has the feel
to him, he doesn't need to be kind
of parsing those details.
And I think it's really good for
Republicans that Democrats are kind
of out there splitting hairs
in all of these different ways,
splitting donors, splitting
attention, while Tom
Tiffany can just sort of have the
field to himself. And so I think
we're also going to see a real shift
in dynamics after the primary
because that's when all of these
national Democratic groups, et
cetera, will throw their weight
behind one candidate and see
if they can pick up whatever that
is, six months, eight, or six weeks,
eight weeks of momentum.
On top of everything that Tom
Tiffany has essentially had since
January.
Yeah, you did see the Democratic
Governors Association through an
affiliated group start running ads
against him this week, but you're
right, he has spent millions of
dollars just painting himself as Mr.
Wisconsin, love pancakes, old
fashions, just kind of like
your neighbor, basically.
Once that primary is done, there's
just going to be an onslaught of
money though.
We had to talk about the vice
president coming to Wisconsin, he
does that from time to time.
Zach, why, it's not a presidential
year, he wasn't in a swing district,
what was he doing here?
Well, anytime a Republican comes to
Milwaukee, they're there to raise
money, first and foremost.
The difference is he actually held
an event open to the public on top
of it. During the Bush era,
there are Republicans coming in
constantly, it's just they held a
fundraiser and left town with the
money, not with any ad recognition.
But he's still here campaigning.
He's campaigning for Tom Tiffany,
he's campaiging for himself.
No matter what Donald Trump thinks,
he can't run for president again,
and JD Vance wants to be the
presumptive Republican nominee in
28. No one's is beyond looking
two years ahead.
That's actually a short window.
For them to be looking ahead.
So this was entirely political, no
matter what the platform on the
stage said.
Yeah, campaigning is kind of like
exercise, right?
Like even when you don't feel like
doing it, it seems like candidates
feel like they gotta keep coming to
these swing states, just
kind of rinse and repeat.
Anya, anything in the message stand
out? Or just the visit as a whole
stand out to you about why JD Vance
is here now.
I mean, yeah, I think you can't in
an election year ignore Wisconsin or
other suing states. I think he was
also campaigning for Derek Van Orden
to suing.
And Brian Stile, the two kind of
targeted Republicans in Wisconsin.
Yeah. So just again, sort of
bringing some national attention,
some money.
But also he had this message around
fraud and rooting out fraud and sort
of the federal government's response
to fraud. And so I think this is a
way in which we're seeing that
concept emerge as an election
year issue of sort of, you know,
rooting out corruption and like they
are going to be the honest and
transparent arm of government, which
is a sort of interesting tact to
take at a time that I think people
are much more concerned about, you
prices than necessarily the
specter of fraud that, again,
sort of, there's no evidence
actually exists.
That's all the time we have for
today. Thanks for joining us.
Our colleague, Rich Kramer, will be
back next week.
This has been Inside Wisconsin
Politics. Be sure to follow us on
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