Chris Taylor wins by a landslide
in this week's Supreme Court race,
locking down a liberal majority for
years.
How did it happen, and what could it
mean?
Plus, the University of Wisconsin
Board of Regents fires the system
president, and Republicans don't
like it.
This is Inside Wisconsin Politics.
I'm Sean Johnson, here with my
colleagues Zach Schultz, Anya Van
Wachtendonk, and Rich Kramer in
Eau Claire. Hey, everyone.
So we've kind of gotten used
to these big
liberal blowouts,
we'd use the term in these April
elections. They have figured out how
to win these races.
It seems like Chris Taylor though,
took that to a new level
with her race this time.
Anya, what's, I guess, stuck out
to you about this massive
win by Chris Taylor?
Yeah, I mean, I think we're all so
used to talking about Wisconsin and
it's so purple and elections are
frequently decided by less than a
percentage point.
And then we've had these spring
elections that are determined by
closer to 10 points, but this time
it was 20 points.
And so that is such a significantly
larger gulf. So we kind of saw, you
know, some of the tea leaves leading
into the race, less spending,
sort of less excitement across the
board. The stakes were different.
But Zach and I were chatting on
election night. We were waiting
around at Chris Taylor's, what
turned into her victory party.
And we were saying this will be an
interesting experiment to see with
the sort of pulled punches, the
pulled financial punches, what kind
of margin will we see.
And then it turned out to be the
largest margin I've ever seen and
from what I understand in decades
in Wisconsin races.
Yeah, a 20 point margin as
opposed to the usual, you know,
quote unquote, 10 in these races.
Zach, how about you? What stood out?
Well, just to add on to that,
earlier that afternoon, I met up
with Chris Taylor on the UW campus.
And one of the questions I asked her
was, are you worried because the
lack of investment from the
Democratic Party of Wisconsin, which
in past elections has
sent millions of dollars to their
preferred candidate or from outside
interest groups who really spent
nothing, that you're leaving
possible voters at the door who may
not be aware they need to get out
and vote. And she said, no, I don't
think so. And she was absolutely
right. And I think what this showed
was that both sides
knew where this election was going
early on and decided we're
going to save our money for the
fall.
There's enough to spend it on there
between some very tight assembly
races, obviously the governor's
race, and even some competitive
Senate races that may not be fully
decided, that may determine the
margin for either party in that
chamber, that I think they all kind
of walked away from this to the
point where when you saw Lazar at
her party, you got the sense that
this was not a surprise to her.
She wasn't shocked, maybe at the
final margin.
But even hearing from Republican
voters afterwards, there were a lot
of them saying, well, why weren't we
trying harder?
And I think that was the main
takeaway is that everyone had an
expectation that this was gonna be
the result.
Rich, as we sit here
today, what kind of stands out to
you about this race?
Well, kind of jumping off what
Zach just said, there was
a sense that the Republican Party of
Wisconsin really wasn't trying
very hard in this race.
You know, they're non-partisan
races, but also they're
not in a lot of ways.
So the level of
fundraising and money coming from
the state party or third
party groups aligned with
conservatives just never
materialized.
You've seen a lot of conservative
people on social media saying
what are you doing republican party
you know there was a lot about anger
about that but also people
didn't really love the way that
lazar was campaigning they wanted
some more aggression
out of her some more of a shiml
type so he's the conservative that
ran last year much more political
generally uh...
Than lazar she stuck to the
experience kind of mantra
And, um...
It did seem like
you know all the money was lower
in this race than it was in the past
but really republicans kind of
stood down in a way
Rich, we were kind of trading
messages throughout the night as you
were at that Maria Lazar campaign
election party.
It strikes me that this was not a
joyous affair.
Can you kind of talk us through what
it was like to be at this hotel
in Milwaukee?
Yeah, it was,
I mean, there
was no celebration.
In fact, there were no people.
Generally, when I show up to these
things, we get there early, and
then you set up, but there's already
people milling around.
For much of the night before the
race was called, there were more
reporters in the room than there
were supporters.
And that is just something.
That, that, and.
You kind of get a sense that, well,
they kind of know this is a foregone
conclusion.
But even I was still surprised
when the race was called less than
40 minutes after the polls closed.
I mean, that's
surprising.
So the mood was rough.
Lazar didn't come out and speak
until after 9 PM.
She said that she feels
that she ran this race
with purpose.
There was still a reason for it.
She said that she thinks that...
Her message that partisanship should
get out of these uh...
Judicial races kind of resonated
and that with candidate after
candidate in the future sticking to
that message maybe things will
change whether that
squares with reality i'm not sure
Seems like the results might send
the opposite message there in terms
of what future candidates will take
from it.
As you look at where the votes
came in here, I know we should take
them with a huge grain of salt
because we do not have 20 point
elections in Wisconsin.
That said, they are a snapshot in
time at this moment.
Anything stick out to any
view about where the vote came
in or how they came in.
I mean, I think that the grain of
salt is actually kind of part of the
story, right? There was a lot of
trying to claim victory and
really cast this forward from
Democrats, cast this foreword into
November for what this means,
especially because Chris Taylor
performed so well in so-called Trump
counties and up north and things
like this. But that's in part
because liberals have the
advantage in these spring elections.
That's been true for the last couple
of years. That was true in the sort
of post-mortem that Republicans put
together about their own poor
performance last spring.
That the nature of the electorate
that comes out in an off-election
in the springtime without Donald
Trump at the top of the ballot is a
really different electorate than
comes out in a November
election.
And so I think over-reading
the results of this would be a
problem for Democrats.
I think the extension of that is
that we're not going to see the same
environment in the fall.
Republicans won't be outspent eight
to one.
Republicans won't t be pulling their
punches and not trying to campaign
through the end.
Nothing to diminish the campaign
that Maria Lazar ran,
but she ran it without any of the
outside support that is necessary in
this modern environment for a
Supreme Court candidate to be
successful.
She simply didn't have the party
infrastructure that is now relied
upon if you want to win a statewide
campaign.
That is a completely different game
than what we're going to see this
fall.
And yes, I think Democrats were
sending out statements trying to
fire up their own supporters.
But I saw this game a couple of
years ago. In 2023, when Janet
Protasewicz won, I was in Ozaukee
County the next year.
And Ozaukee county Dems were telling
me, oh, we were in the mid forties
and Ozaukee country for Janet.
We're gonna win for fall of
24.
Kamala Harris is gonna win Ozaukee.
She got blown out.
Things revert back to the norm when
you get to the bigger elections.
Where more attention is paid.
And due to voter realignment, like
you were just talking about, Anya,
we're going to see more people that
don't pay attention to these
elections vote in the fall, not at
the same level as we would in a
presidential year, but turnout will
be significantly higher.
Right now with realignment Democrats
do better in lower turnout events
when they can consistently get their
voters to the polls and Republicans
aren't.
So a lot of it will depend on the
atmosphere this fall and how
demoralized Republicans may be.
I would be surprised,
frankly, if Republicans were
able to win Ozaukee County in
November. This is the oh and the
wow counties, the vaunted wow
counties that were the foundation of
Republican power in this state for
years.
But I have to say, Chris Taylor won
Ozaukee county.
And that is something that even in
these other big Supreme Court
elections, the liberal candidate has
not yet won Ozwaukee county.
She also got 84%
in Dane County.
And yeah, sure.
Democrats win Dane County.
No surprise, she's from there.
84% is unheard of.
And when it is the leading vote
getting county in the state as Dane
county is in these races, that's
a big deal.
Well, and she did much better in her
home county of Dane County than
Maria Lazar did in her own county
of Waukesha County.
And Waukeesha County is also one of
these that has started sort of
moving away from being as
diehard red. It's still deep red,
but that is also a sort of suburban
district that we've been paying
attention to as some of those shifts
have taken place.
And far more people than Ozaki
too. So a big vote getter.
Rich, how about you?
Yeah, I just wanted to go back to
the discussion of, you know, you've
got the wild counties, not as,
as deep red, um, but
Northern Wisconsin.
So it is true that, that,
um I've seen some conservatives
say, well, that's the new wild
counties essentially, you a strip of
counties from like the
Eastern side of the Northeastern
part of the state to the Polk County
on the West.
Might be true, but the
population just isn't there.
So, you know, that's sort of an
area, even if it goes hard for
Republicans in the fall,
a Dane County kind of turned out
like we saw,
could erase that pretty quickly.
So that was a really
interesting thing to
see. Republicans say, well, this is
where we need to focus.
So we have this thing that we do in
Wisconsin, at least I can't resist
it. We had an election and we have
to talk about what's it mean for the
next election. And I know the 2026
election is way different, but
what does it mean?
I mean, are there lessons that
either party would look at these and
say, well,
that's troubling for us, you know,
if you're Republicans or if you are
Democrats, little of
that exuberance that you were
talking about. Is there anything
kind of real in there?
Well, just today, before we
came on here, we saw two more
assembly Republicans announce they
were not going to seek re-election.
Now, in and of itself, that doesn't
mean anything, but trends matter.
We've seen a lot more Republicans
decide they don't want to run, and
we've seen that in the Senate, where
it is a pretty good odds on chance
that Democrats will flip that
chamber and the assembly's 50-50.
It sucks to be in the minority, and
we have seen that in both the
legislature and on the Supreme
Court, where we had now two
consecutive conservative incumbent
justices tour.
Well within the normal age range to
seek another 10-year term, decide, I
don't want to be in the minority on
this court. I'd rather go somewhere
else. So I think those patterns tell
you a lot more than what any of the
press releases will.
Including Annette Ziegler who would
have been up for election in 2027
and somebody who at least in 2007
showed that she knew how to win
these races.
How about 2027?
What does this mean for the
next state Supreme Court race?
Who wants to go there?
I mean it's interesting right sort
of gaming out the next couple we
talked last week about how nobody
was talking about this court
election as the most important in
a generation or whatever and then
enter Ben Wickler the former chair
of the Democratic Party he sent out
this email day of and he was
explaining why he thought for
Democrats and liberals it was
actually hugely important
because essentially this
guarantees liberal control past
the point of the census and so into
the next redistricting cycle
everything comes back to
redistricting, as Zach likes to say.
And so with the
2027, with 28,
and a swing justice potentially
coming up, maybe we'll see primaries
in the race again, like in some ways
this opens the door for some very
strange maneuverings as liberals and
Democrats get to kind of take for
granted that they have this court.
I'm going to be watching to see
if Republicans or
conservatives even run a
candidate.
The inverse of that happened when
the GOP was running the
table on these elections, and
there's been a few talk
radio people wondering
who would want to run
for a seat in the
minority of the Supreme Court after
someone just got
clobbered by 20 points.
I obviously can't predict the
future but that
seems like it would be a pretty
bitter pill to swallow so it will
be interesting to see who
runs for liberals
and for conservatives or if
they just sit this one out.
All right, Sean, your turn.
I mean, I've been thinking
about how long this could go,
really, in terms of how long
this liberal majority could be
in place because, yes, we
have said accurately, the
conservatives could flip it back in
2030, but you know how much has
to go right for them for that to
happen? They have to win next year
when there's an open seat and we see
what the environment is now.
They have to win in 28, 28.
When Rebecca Dallet's up and she
knows how to run these races, 2029
is Brian Hagedorn, who may face a
challenge from the right.
And then, if all that goes right,
then you get to 2030 and
you presumably take on Jill Kravsky,
another double digit winner in her
race.
If any of those things does not go
their way, the clock gets set back
three years.
So this really does sort of open up
a chance for liberals to
look at the court with a
long view.
And I think we're kind of looking
for. Clues on how they
might view that now that this 5-2
majority is the sort of new reality.
We know about Judge Chris
Taylor, the candidate for Supreme
Court.
She gave us some hints on election
night about how she views the
law.
Here's Justice Elect Chris
Taylor.
The law can be a
tool to lift people up, to improve
their lives, to strengthen our
communities. And that's exciting.
That drove me to law school.
And I've spent now 30,
my 30 year legal career as a lawyer,
in private practice as a law and
policy director for Planned
Parenthood.
And so, you know, when candidates
for the court get up and give that
speech on election night, they have
a choice they can make.
They can kind of withdraw from the
campaign messages and thank their
supporters and say, it's time to
move on.
In this case, I think you heard
Chris Taylor saying, hey, you all
that stuff I said on the campaign
trail, that's still me, this is who
I am.
So knowing that, knowing the court
that she is stepping into, what
might this court take up?
I mean, so one of the things that
could be on the agenda is a
challenge to Act 10,
and I thought that was really
interesting. You know, I did a
profile of Chris Taylor, and she
talked about, on the trail,
on her stump speech, she talked how
the events of 2011 is
part of what motivated her to run
for the legislature, which is part
where she spent her career,
meaning Act 10. Meaning the protests
against Scott Walker.
And so it'll be really interesting
to kind of see the tale of those
events and how those reshaped
politics. Maybe it potentially come
before this court.
Rich, any issues that you think
could be there?
I mean, obviously,
there's a ton of issues, but one
thing that has been interesting to
watch is the liberal majority kind
of dismantling Republicans,
the power that they had built up for
themselves when they had,
you know, they still do, but during
the Walker years.
And this has been through
kind of
clipping the wings a little bit of
these various legislative committees
that can
delay new rules for agencies,
or they could,
indefinitely, and,
you know, we've seen that sort of
stuff get struck down.
So I guess I'd be more interested to
see if there's going to be other
cases challenging the
legislature's authority to be able
to stop, you,
know, things that Democrats want to
see happen.
We, we're going to run out of time
here if we don't keep moving.
I think, you know, use your
imagination.
Big issues could come before the
court. Let's talk about
another person
in the news this week who lost
their job.
The UW Board of Regents unanimously
fired the assistant president,
Jay Rothman.
What do we know about why at this
point?
Not much.
We know that they were displeased
that he serves at the pleasure of
the board.
These are appointees of Governor
Evers. Rothman came in
kind of as a whisperer
for Republicans.
When Republicans control the
legislature and the UW needed
someone to negotiate between
the both parties, especially when
the UW is getting trampled in the
budget constantly.
And it may signal this idea that
we don't need someone like that
anymore.
That they expect Democrats to be in
power next year when there's a new
budget.
And Rossman services, it's
time for him to move on.
They were hoping to do it quietly,
but it didn't end up that way.
It didn't.
And Republicans who control the
legislature are not only protesting,
they are using the power that
they have, potentially,
in the state Senate, it sounds like,
to kind of strike back
in a way.
Yeah, that is one of the powers that
they've had throughout the Evers
administration, is to push back
against his appointments, and they
could do that here to send a
message. Again, we are kind of
looking towards November, where we
don't know who's going to end up in
the governor seat, and so therefore,
we don't know who is going to end up
in charge of the Board of Regents.
And so I think we're gonna see some
of this power grabbing right now,
in order to kind of set the stage
for control of UW.
Rich, we don't have much time, but
animosity between the legislature
and the university.
Who'da thunk it?
Yeah it's a bit of a pattern
let's put it that way so when
rothman was hired uh...
Assembly speaker robin boss said hey
that's great you know business
leader that's what they were looking
for former
governor tommy thompson another
republican run the system before
rothmann and the
republicans in the legislature still
didn't give him very much
in terms of budget uh...
Requests
So now we're gonna have to wait and
see if the Senate follows through on
this at a time when they're not in
session. They got other stuff going
on.
It's kinda their move at this point.
That's all the time we have for
today. Thanks for joining us for
this week's Inside Wisconsin
Politics.
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