>> David Crowley pulls
off political
comeback ther
ages. How did
he do and what
does it mean for
November? This is
inside Shawnnsin politics.
Johnson here with my
colleague Zac Schultz
and Rich
Kremer in Eau
Claire. Hey,
guys. >> Hello.
>> So let's
go back just
one month
here. David
Crowley was
not a for governor.
He had
ended campaign,
told its that
was because he knew he
was not going to nominee.
Yesterday, received
315 000
plus votes.
Sorry. Tuesday
he received 315,000
votes. Around
40% of the
Democratic voting
electorate. Zac,
I want to
hear how
he did this. How
did he pull off
this one
month comeback?
>> Well, I
think most
importantly is he didn't
do alone. He
did this with
all of the
team And Iers.
know he doesn't like
the idea of being the
establishment, but the Democratic
establishment what
pushed him
over the line and
pulled him all the way to this
nomination. He
certainly worked for
it. But
Tony Evers coming back
with his endorsement, and
we talked before on this
podcast about how
endorsements aren't everything. But then he
followed up by doing
the Tony Eversim.
campaigning, bringing the media
attention to every
one of David
Crowley stops
along the way was because it got
him on more television
sets, more newscasts,
got people
aware that there were
contrasts in this
race, that wasn't a
runaway, if Crowley
had a chance, thinkingto be
about it. I can't tell you how many
people I in just the last
week who said they made upt
their minds. They were still undecided
going into
the final few
days, where they had
a decide this
election. And it's
clear a lot
of them went to
David >> Rich, what's
your onake
this dramatic
comeback here by
Crowley? >> Well,
it was remarkable.
It was
not expected.
I mean, I
was I
was fully on
board with these
polls weret we
seeing showing
Francesca Hong way ahead.
But I do
remember, you know,
what Zac just
mentioned reminded
me of
talking with Charles
Franklin, and he
essentially said,
well, there are
a lot of
undecided people
out there. But,
you know, with
hung at
the, you know,
20, 30
points ahead that
we'd seen in some
polls, it takeld
essentially every
undecided person, you
know, rallying
behind one
candidate when he
told me that it
wasn't, you
know, we still had
other candidates
like the race.n
So it
does appear
that the end
of undecided
voters did make
a decision
and went out.
So it was it
was just something else. And being at
a Republican
event on Tuesday
night was
interesting because of the reactions
that I saw
from people.
talk about those polls
just a little bit more, because I can
imagine somebody
sitting at home
and thinking,
hey, you
know, the
news presented this to
me as
Francesca Hong victory, you
know, weeks
ago essentially, that
there these
repeated thatls
showed her
leading and that gave
the clear impression
that, you sheow,
was going to win thing.
Zac. I
mean, what would
you say to someone
with with those
qualms about the
information they were
receiving? >> They are
right to have
qualms about polling.
Everyone should
always take
polling with a grain
of say that.s the
But the thing
that most
people I think get
wrong about what polls
are is
even Charles Franklin
will say
it. They a snapshot of
that moment.
So the
mistake I think some
people make is think polling
is like
the the
score of a
game in the
third quarter.
They say,
oh, well,
hangs up 21
points. It's like the
Packers being up 21
points. should have this in
the bag. If they a complete
colossal failure. But
you have to think
of those
polls that fewme out a
weeks ago as more like a preseason
game. They theapshot of where
race looked at that time. The real game
was on night,n
and at that
point , it
was a toss
up because
so many more
people been
changing their minds
and moving to Crowley,
and the polls
weren't updated to be
able reflect
that. So
if you think of
the polls as a snapshot and not
reality and not a
score on the
board, they
are a little
better guide
Pfaff to
what situation may
be, and
I everyone
should note
Francesca Hong she wasg said
going to get 40%,
she got 40%. And that
was, you
know, considering
that primary
polling has an
even larger
margin of
error, thee
polls really
got her
support correct.
And they did
reflect the amount of
undecideds. It is
rare see
all the undecideds
go second place
candidate, but I think
that goes more to what we
were establishment telling
everyone this has to
happen in the
context of what
had in the Michigan
Senate race
and all these
national figureheads
coming Wisconsin. It
really a lot
of people
thinking, this ist,
not just about who I like
the most abouting. This is
electability. >> Yeah.
I think
the youint
made, there
is something
I want to
impress upon
myself and all
reporters for
future elections
that the
undecided number is pretty significant.
I think, even
looking back and
we're going to talk about
today, 2016, there
was a of talk about where
the werong. I think
didn't talk about the undecided voters or the
people who wouldn't commit in the presidential race
that year. That's another one that sticks out
in our underscores that
a candidate
can win all
those, David
Crowley did.
But him to
do that,
Rich, you
just do not
see that
level of
surge at the end
by one
candidate. How
big think
was Governor Tony
Evers in this
instance? >> Well,
obviously it bigs a
deal, which is
interesting because
looking back
to a poll that
we had
before the
primary, you
know, the
Marquette University Law
School asked
people, how much
does Governor
Evers endorsement
of David Crowley
impact your
decision? And
majority said
it didn't, but
clearly it
did. But what
also might
have impacted
and didobably
impact those
undecided voters
decision to get
behind Crowley
was a
big surge
of campaign
TV advertising.
So ad which is a
great service, and
they put out
a tweet
and it
showed, you know,
a line
graph of different
candidates and
what they
were spending
on ads
right up to the
election. And
there's just
one blue line
that that
goes straight up
like Mount Everest and
then crashes
back down. Well, that
is David
Crowley. So it
looked like
something maybe
upwards of $1 million
in that
last those final
days. And I
was talking
with a
friend of the podcast,
Anthony Chergosky,
today, he
said, TV,
ad TV
advertising does
matter. still
matters because
there discussions
about whether or
not, you
know, Hong's
success in the polls
without spending
any ononey
TV ads.
I was seeing
people saying, well, maybe
this is the new the oldaybe
model is dead.
Chergosky doesn't see it
that way. And he ad impactat
graph proves
it. >> And
I think
that those ads
come at a time,
or they a time when all
these people who were paying attention to
this started paying
attention. They came righthe
time for David
Crowley, >> So, Shawn,
I want to get your feedback here.
So we've talked on this
podcast about
Francesca Thanksgiving
tweets were things that
coming up out of past. Give me
your Crowley's of
ascent with
everyone rallying
behind him,
including the money, and
then the way
Francesca Hong handled the
amount of
national attention she
was getting,
questions about
her past
that really
hadn't been
pushed on her
early in the
campaign, and certainly
not by the other
campaigns, as we saw a
very friendly debate.
So how much of
an impact do you played with
those undecided the last week or
two? national window
for our just so
brief. There
were national
media paying
attention to
Michigan before
us, and all
of a sudden we were the next big
thing. I think
it's fair to
argue about
whether or not
people should
focus on a fromet
2020, but
they did.
I visiting
my dad the
weekend before the Helection.
lives in Illinois.
He watches all
the Sunday
shows religiously,
and every one
of them
talked about that
Thanksgiving tweet.
My dad doesn't know
who Francesca Hong is
or orid Crowley
much about race inrnor's
Wisconsin, but
he got an earful
about that tweet
that weekend.
And if he'd been
watching those inhows
Wisconsin, he would have
been seeing ads in
between saying to vote for
David Crowley.
So that stuff
matters and the
timing matters.
And she did
have aboutwer
that tweet came
later that kind shrugged it off and
said, I'll be
I'mank.
a curmudgeon when it comes to the
holidays. butt
I love Thanksgiving.
It's not what
she said at
first. At first
she kind stood by
it. And,
you know, I
know this stuff
is is sort
of dumb,
arguably, but it's
how elections
are andn
lost. And
so in
a race that was
won in this
case David Crowley
by 4000
votes, a little
less stuff
like that can
matter. Rich.
>> If I could
chime in, I've
seen some
pundits online
talking about,
well, Hong's
campaign collapsed
at the very final
moments because of the
way handled those
media interviews at the
national level. I want
to of you,th
Shawn and Zac,
did you see
her campaign, you
know, at the very final
stages as
a collapse or an
implosion? >> I
think it's say,der to
because thee did hit
polling mark that she was at. If she
came in significant
below, significantly
below people
were talking
that would
receive, then you
could wonder,
did some of
those soft
Hong supporters
disappear and leave
her at the end? But we
didn't see hit the marks that
all the polling said had along the
way. The isference
the people minds up their
chose thinkwhere. I
those were about
electability concerns.
I there
are legitimate
questions about how she answered those
questions national
spotlight on
her, and
whether the
people in had beenin that
paying attention abouthink more
electability than about
policy. But I
don't know if
collapse is right
word when gote's still
40% of the
vote or thereabouts. And that's a
really strong showing from any candidate, especially
someone from
her whockground
doesn't have a
long track
record of
politics in Wisconsin and hasn't spent
a long time developing
those relations
around the state. So
she had a very
impressive showing
from context.
>> And I think
there are just
choices in the way
that she ran
her race
in days.osing
I mean, on television
was a
choice. I know
TV is free,
and she didn't have ton of money.
And the money Crowley to David
there at the end. So it's not like
she could runr fingers and
TV ads. But she a campaign
in different you'renow, when
trying to reach primaryf casual
voters, maybe older in the closing
days, she
didn't have a strategy
for that or the resources
for that in the way that
Crowley did. It's also a
choice. I know it's her
community and she
felt passionate about
it, but ist
a choice to go
to the a shooting and call
it an execution over
a bullhorn,
as she did in
the days of the race.
That gets attention.
And she
said in a
debate, she wouldn't do
that as governor.
She did it as
a governor,for
though. So those are
choices. I think
another debatable
thing in this
campaign is the role these
Republican ads
attacking Hong
played. These were
run the Republican
Governors Association
and the
going theory
among Democrats,
Democrats who didn't want
Hong to be the
nominee was these
were there to prop
her up,
that they going to
run thesee ads in
Milwaukee and Madison
media markets where all
these Democratic voters
are and
say she's too
liberal Wisconsin,
and that Democratic voters
would see That'sliberal.
my that's my choice.
Zac, would you
say theat's
effect that
it had,
or did
they backfire
on Republicans?
>> I think, well,
Republicans saw those as a
twofer. One,
they did boost
her with
liberals letting
by giving her
more wouldgnition than she
have otherwise had.
And two,
even in the
Madison and Milwaukee television
viewing areas,
there are a lot
of there.can voters out
So it was
working towards
the election. That's
still come. If she was
the wasnee, it
weakening her
and tarnishing her
name, attaching
her to these
issues with
Republicans vote,ould
getting them aware
of who she
was. So
they definitely
saw that as a
great double
by doing two
things at once.
It backfired
in the sense that
it really did
alarm a lot
of Democrats,
and it made
it easier for
Crowley to
say, this is
who Republicans want to
face, should
talk more about
why and
the vulnerabilities that lie
within their
boosting his credibility. When it came
to electability.
>> It was
kind of his opening. I mean,
it let him
attack her without
really attacking
her because Democrats had been hands
off at that point.
And David Crowley
is going to want her voters
in November,
so he doesn't
want to attack her too aggressively
and say Democratic
socialists have no
place in
our party.
Of course, he's
not going to say that. He's
going to want those Francesca Hong supporters
support him. But the were
definitely the opening
for him.
Rich, I know a
lot observersal
nationally were looking to Wisconsin.
As for a
lesson terms
of whether
democratic socialism that
has played
well in other
states can
play in
a Midwest
swing state,
what lesson can they
take away our
race? >> Oh
boy, that's
such a question.
I feel
a little
unqualified in answering,
but I you
know, obvious
takeaway is it
didn't it
didn't work this
time. But
all the caveats
being the
coordinated effort
by establishment
Democrats, moderate
Democrats to make
it make
sure that it
doesn't happen.
So I would say at
face value,
yeah, I guess
it workt
out. And it came
pretty close in in
the effort to
stop the
far youft,
know, progressive
candidate in the
Senate race
in Michigan,
the closeness of that,
plus maybe it
changed the conversation.
>> And I guess
the counterpoint to that
would if if
she picks up
5000 votes,
then, you
know, we're
having a different
discussion today.
What does this
mean for
November? I
mean, I
think that
Republicans starting
to expect
it was going to be
Tom Tiffany
versus Francesca Hong.
What its
mean that
it is
Tom versus
David Crowley you
were at
the Tiffany
campaign headquarters
on election
night. Rich,
what's your impression?
>> Oh, man. It
was this is I was
alluding to
in beginning.
It was
really interesting.
So the spirits
were high the whole
night, because there
was no doubt that Tiffany
was going to be the
nominee. And
the other thing
was, before
the polls
closed, I talked to
a few people that
were there and they
said, well,
hang. Being the
nominee easierusly makes it
for Tiffany. And
people were telling me
they hang,
scares them,
etc. and
then what I
noticed was
spirits were still
high, but
people became
more and more
glued to the
big screen
showing cable
news their
phones. And
I outside
a couple times
and there was some
young guys
that are like,
I could
overhear them talking
Crow Crowley's being
hung this
county, but
Crowley is,
you know, they were not expecting
that. And
when Tiffany
came and he
he hisve
speech at
about right around
10 p.m. and he
talked with
reporters And the first
question was,
If Crowley
wins, does
that youre
strategy since beene
spending so much
time attacking
hang and
he he's been
using a line where
he says
there's at
dime's worth of
difference between the
Democrats. Okay. And
then next
line mouthof his
was, David
Crowley never
called out
Francesca thoseor all
crazy things she
said, which
is, it's
an answer,
but you
it just
seemed like he might
not have
had a whole
list of
talking points
against Crowley ready to go,
because it was a
surprise for
a lot of people
that has
happened. Tiffany's
campaign put out
a first
campaign attack ad
against Crowley,
trying to,
you know,
identify him the
rest of the state. still
, on a campaign
election night,
unexpected. >> So what
are you watching for,
Zac, as
the campaign
gets going
here? Week
one the
of the general
election campaign
between Tiffany and
Crowley. now, it's
about money.
Tom. Tiffany
has got lot
of money in the and he's already
spending already.ng out
He's got money through theeling
party him,
so he
looks like he'll well financed, at least
for now. Crowley did
release a statement
saying he raised
a million half in
the first 24 hours. The big question is,
can he havet? That might
been a lot of transfers from the
Governors Democratic Party waiting
to So theominee.
question is, how can he get out
and beforedsnning his
Tiffany is
able to define
him? Among the
voters in the state that
haven't heard much about him because they've heard
so much about Francesca Hong.
mentioned the lines, andou,
Diane Hendricks. around aunited
Republican backinge or
the state
party. They
are this time.
>> For >>ow.
I think one question
you is that this is
the first year we've really
rich. You this ind to
a story you did. But the first year
since 2010,
when you could
say the
Assembly and the
Senate governor's
office are all
kind of up for
grabs, either
party could
win, you know,
all three.
And so
big donors are going
to have to decide, do we
want to spread this orround
focus on where we think
our money will go the
farthest? That's all the
time we have for Thanks for joining
us. Our Wagtendonk will
be back week.
This has been
inside Wisconsin politics. sure to follow us
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