After Sara Rodriguez drops out of the race for
governor. David Crowley drops back in. We know Tony
Evers supports him. We don't know yet what voters
think this is Inside Wisconsin Politics.
I'm Shawn Johnson here with my colleagues Anya van
Wagtendonk Zac Schultz and
Rich Kremer in Eau Claire. Hey, everyone. Hello. So
this race is pure chaos, now, wouldn't you say? I
mean, when you think about it, just last week we were
talking about Sarah Rodriguez's campaign sort
of teetering shortly after it fell. And then almost
immediately you had David Crowley, who had been out
of the race, get back in Ana. Why did David Crowley
take that step so quickly after Sara Rodriguez
dropped out? Why did it need to be him in this race?
>> Yeah, I mean, it's a really great question, and
I think we're kind of trying to hammer down
exactly what that eight day calculus kind of was. So he
dropped out. He backed Sarah Rodriguez. A couple
days later, she made this announcement that there
were issues with her campaign, but she was going
to stay in. And I spoke to him a little bit ago. And
his timeline of events is essentially that she
on. He, you know, reiterated his support for
her campaign, started hearing from backers all
week that they wanted him back in that essentially
there was different information than than what
he had dropped out on. And we started hearing from
sources that maybe he was going to get back in with
the finance deadline. Never heard back from him. When I
when I directly asked this last week, and then we
started to hear the rumblings on Friday as
Sarah announced that she was dropping out, that he
was going to announce the next day. And then we kind
of got that confirmation. So it really was almost a
trading of who was going to be potentially this
frontrunner. The other with his announcement was
Governor Tony Evers endorsing him. And so that
he suddenly became the sort of person who is tied to
that administration in this race.
you can talk about the Crowley candidacy without
talking about Governor Tony Evers in that decision. Zac,
why did Tony Evers, who has told us repeatedly
throughout this primary cycle, I'm not going to get
involved. Why did he get involved now and why did he
say. David Crowley is my guy.
second half of the statement, if I'm not
getting involved, is that I might decide later. And
that always felt like keeping the back door open,
but unlikely to be used. Well, he went through the
back door. >> He did.
did. He played his euchre card as his last, his last
jack in the hole for that. The reason why it seems
only can be that he and others that think like him
are not happy with Francesca Hong and the lead
she has throughout this entire race. All the
polling, including the stuff we're going to talk
about later in this very show, shows that she is a
clear frontrunner for the Democratic primary. And
really, there's been no ability for anyone else to
centralize all of the support for the centrist,
moderate Tony Evers, heir, to take over that position.
We had heard that Evers and Crowley got along, that
they liked each other. How much of the personal
relationship matters? We don't know and matters a
lot in politics. Sara Rodriguez clearly had that
position even without the endorsement. So Tony Evers
could say, I'm not the kingmaker here. Clearly him
stepping in is that he felt he needed to use some of
his political capital to try and boost someone to
take on Francesca Hong and make it a two person race.
>> Yeah, Rich, we've been kind of hinting at that,
that Hong dynamic all campaign cycle. But until
now, Democrats hadn't been out there saying it. You
covered the Crowley announcement this past
Saturday. He's saying it now.
>> Yeah. I mean, he didn't name her when he announced,
but it was pretty obvious who he was talking about.
He referenced the Republican Governors
Association, the RGA, putting up ads that it says
are attacking her. But Democrats feel that it's
actually boosting her and aimed at trying to get her
to clear the Democrats nomination. So he mentioned
that. And it's it's pretty obvious what what's going
on here. >> So what does this say
about what Tony Evers thinks about the rest of
the field? Anya. >> Well, I think it was a
bit of a dance that he needed to be doing because
he does have relationships with everybody else in the
field. So obviously it was his lieutenant, his current
lieutenant governor, who stepped out Sara Rodriguez.
But his former lieutenant governor, Mandela Barnes,
is in there, his former Genoa secretary, Joel
Brennan, and then Kelda Roys, who's been in the
legislature alongside him for quite a number of years.
David Crowley, in some ways is actually the person he
has the least professional relationship with. Just
because, you know, David operates at the county
level, he's not in the state legislature quite as
much. So they haven't necessarily, you know,
worked. He hasn't served in the administration, I guess
I should say. And so it's interesting that this is
the person that he's choosing to back because he
does have, you know, as you say, he he pulled the one
card that he kind of has, and he's putting it behind
this person who dropped out, who had said that he didn't
have the finances, who said he didn't have the path.
And so Tony Evers is saying both I backed this person.
I backed his politics. And I think I can help him get
that path. >> I will say, if you just
walk back a few years, David Crowley used to be a
legislative staffer. The governor's chief of staff
used to be a legislative staffer who was called
David Crowley, a friend, and she is influential in
the governor's office. So there's possible that he
was getting advice there, that David Crowley is a
good candidate. So what's the theory of how this
works out, though, Zac? I mean, the governor's office
and Crowley are going into this thing thinking we're
going to take this big risk. They must think they can
win. How does it work? >> That's a good question.
And we have seen how quickly the dynamics in
this race can change on the ground. We have seen
candidates rise and fall, according to finance
reports. According to polling, candidates
dropping out, coming back in, things are happening
rapidly. And one thing, it feels like it's really
close to this primary election because ballots
have already been returned. The Democratic Party is
worried about people not being able to spoil those
ballots. If they drop, if they back someone who's
dropped out and there's a there's still a long way to
go, though. There's still a couple of weeks, there's
more polls, there's a lot more ad spending. And as
we're going to explain, there was actually an
incident that happened in Madison last night with the
police involved shooting. up races in a big way by
putting candidates in difficult positions to see
how they react, and they are judged according to
that. >> Yeah, we do want to
acknowledge that that shooting people are
reacting to that shooting that took place Wednesday.
There's a vigil tonight or Thursday as we record this.
This is going to be a thing. You've already seen the
candidates react to some very strongly. It's going
to affect the race. We're just going to take a pause
here and wait for more information to learn more
about this before we talk about it in this setting,
Rich, turning to something very explicitly political,
the Marquette poll came out this week. We've been
looking forward to this for a while. The last time
Marquette pulled on the race for governor was in
March. So why did this one that we've been kind of
marking on our calendar seem so incomplete?
>> You're saying we marked the Marquette poll on our
calendars? I mean, we might have. It's because it is
incomplete. It's not a full picture, but it's through
no fault of the pollsters who I'll mention in a
second. But the questions went out to Wisconsin
voters between July 8th and the 16th. Well, July 8th is
when the things kind of got crazy in the primary.
Crowley had dropped out on July 8th when the questions
were out, so he wasn't included in the results
that we saw. And also the poll asked about Rodriguez.
Her information was included, but she ended her
campaign essentially right after they got the the data
back from their surveys. So it's still good information
still gave us a sense of where things are at, at
least among those that were included in the the poll
results, but it's just a partial picture. So I
wanted to give a shout out to pollster Charles
Franklin, who I know watches this podcast. And
we all really appreciate the work that Charles and
the rest of his team do. And I think we can
sympathize, at least I can, that we've all been in a
position where we're writing a story, or we just
published a story only to have the news change and
essentially make that story, you know, totally outdated
and you have to start from scratch. So it's like
throwing darts at a moving target. It's pretty tough.
So kudos to them for doing what they could.
>> Rich Cramer looking to boost his approval rating
with Marquette's pollster there with with a shout out.
So let's take a look at those results real quick.
The candidates who remain in the race. This is when
you don't include David Crowley and you don't
include the voters who picked Sara Rodriguez.
Francesca Hong leads the pack with 27%, followed by
Mandela Barnes with 18, Joel Brennan with five,
Kelda, Roys with two, and 48% undecided. So Francesca
Hong leads the field. This is the third Marquette poll
that she's done that in this year. Does she have
this locked up? >> I mean, I think if she
had it locked up, we wouldn't be seeing the deck
shuffling that we keep seeing because she does
very well in these polls. She has a very energetic
base of support, and yet she doesn't have the power
players kind of unifying behind her because they
keep trying to find an alternative. I think if she,
you know, had it locked up, so to speak, there would be
a confidence from the sort of democratic authorities,
the Democratic kingmakers, that would say that she can
win both the primary and win the general. And I
think we are seeing, maybe implicitly, more than
explicitly, a real concern that she can't. And so who
can they kind of bring in in order to beat Tom
Tiffany? And so she does very well in a Democratic
poll. Although, again, I think we also have to talk
about that 48% undecided number. But can she do well
in a general. That's sort of the big question that
Democrats are very worried about.
that 48%. Nearly half of the people, half the
Democratic voters who responded to this saying, I
don't know who I'm going to vote for. Zac, what's the
deal? We've been doing podcasts about this all
summer. Why are so many people not sure about this?
What we thought was going to be a very high profile
race for governor. >> Because those 48% make
up a lot of people who don't watch this podcast,
so they are not as informed. There are a lot of people
who don't pay attention to politics until the very end
there. I just got the first campaign flier in my
mailbox this morning. They're starting to come.
Those people will follow along. Another thing that
happens in primaries pretty regularly is people wait to
see if there is a frontrunner. They don't
like to waste their vote on someone who will not win,
or they're going to say, well, I like this person,
but they're in fourth place and they're not polling
very high. Why would I throw it behind them? Who's
my next favorite? Which is another good thing that the
Marquette poll does is they do. Who is your next
favorite in line? Another thing to look at is Tom.
Tiffany is unopposed in the Republican primary. There's
still 30% undecided there. >> Now they're.
>> Finding they're going to vote for the Republican.
But I think you can take that 30%, put it over and
compare it to the 48% for the Democrats and go, okay,
there's just a lot of people that either aren't
tuned in yet, or they're waiting to the last minute
to figure out who is actually the frontrunner.
Who do I trust to be the candidate for my my
favorite party? >> A large portion of
Wisconsinites have just been living their lives
this year, it turns out, and we'll turn out.
>> Kudos to them. >> Kudos to them. So what
about the candidates who are toward the bottom of
this polling? Joel Brennan and Kelda. Roys Brennan at
5%. Roys at 2%. Where does that leave them? Rich, I'll
go to you first. What do you think?
>> Well, I mean, it leaves them in the position that
they've been in for a while. They're just towards the
bottom of the heap in terms of the polling we've seen.
So ultimately, they and their supporters and their
donors have decisions to make, whether they stay in
the race or whether they drop out and endorse
someone like a Crowley or a hang or a Barnes or whoever.
So, you know, I I've never been in that position. I
don't know what all it you have to think about.
They've clearly invested a lot of time and resources
into their races thus far. So maybe they won't drop
out. But at some point you would think that those are
conversations happening within the campaigns.
>> It seems like they are saying we have money. And
if, you know, sharing their own internal polling, if
voters get to know us, they like us. And so a lot of
race left to run from their point of view. Joel Brennan
is actually running probably the most negative
ads I've seen in the primary, where he lists all
the sort of front runner candidates and explains
kind of explicitly why they can't win in November. His
words, Anya, I mean, what's going on with Joel
Brennan's decision there? >> Yeah, I mean, you're
right. I think it is a kind of tonal shift. We've
talked about some of these, you know, attacks on social
media, but this is a really kind of negative ad. It has
the, you know, the color tint over the like the
opponents that you normally kind of see more in a
general. And I think it goes to this kind of game
that voters tend to play in competitive primaries in
such a swing state like Wisconsin, where again, you
are not taking for granted that the winner of a
primary is going to win the general, as might happen in
other states where Democratic voters right now
are like playing 3D chess. They are not just trying to
identify who is the candidate that I support,
but who is the candidate that my neighbors are going
to support. And so therefore, how can I make
sure kind of get the most out of my vote? And so he's
speaking to that electability question and
the most electable. And then when you do have 48%
undecided, there may be an argument to be made, or
he's trying to make the argument of like, well,
what would happen if all 48% of them went to me?
Right? That's a lot of extra voters. So yes, he's
now 3% to Fran Hong's, you know, 27% to Mandela Barnes
is 18%. But if he gets half of those undecideds, he's a
front runner. And so maybe he's kind of banking on
that. >> Marquette did look at
well, they looked at a lot, but they had some head to
head matchups in there. If you look at those, you get
a slightly different story of the Democrats in the
race right now, not including David Crowley
only Mandela Barnes defeats Tom Tiffany in head to head
matchup by a 44 to 40% split among registered
voters. Tiffany leads Francesca Hong 43 to 40%,
so a plus four for Mandela Barnes, minus three for
Francesca Hong. Zac. I mean, I think it kind of begs the
question, why did the establishment not rally
around Mandela Barnes? >> Well, I think that's the
question Mandela Barnes campaign is asking and
saying you might have made a mistake if you are
looking for a Hong alternative. That's
certainly what they are pushing right now. But I
think one of the distinctions is Barnes came
in with the most name recognition of everyone due
to his 2022 U.S. Senate run, his close loss to Ron
Johnson. And it was always a question because he also
had the highest negatives that came with that
hangover from that election. And he started running this
race as the front runner. He introduced himself as
saying, I'm the one to take on Tom Tiffany. He did the
thing where he ignores the rest of the field and kind
of pretends they weren't there. And then partway
through this election, I think he or his campaign
realized, oh no, Francesca Hong is there. I do have to
take her seriously. So he kind of had to shift his
tone to talking about his competitors, where I think
at first he was running the 2022 U.S. Senate primary,
where all of his competitors dropped out at
the end, and he basically had the field to himself.
That didn't happen. So it is a question of, did the
rest of the field say you've had your chance and
you couldn't make your case? Now we're going to go with
someone else. Or is it simply that they think his
negatives are too high, despite the head to head
matchup? Looking good. So it is a legitimate question
for Evers. It's a legitimate question for
voters out there of how should they take all these
different pieces of information. And that's
what happens when you have this many centrist or
moderate candidates all trying to claim that one
mantel is they can divide the field, which is what
they're doing. >> And now.
>> Mandela Barnes is attacking the establishment,
which was definitely his friend of four years ago.
We should talk real quick before we wrap up here
today about what happens with all these tens of
thousands of voters who cast absentee ballots and
maybe want to change those ballots? A short answer can
they know? >> Well.
>> Not at this moment, yeah. >> According to Wisconsin
Election Commission guidance, the the answer is
no. That guidance was issued voted on in July 9th,
issued on July 10th. Ana you had a well.
>> Well, yes. So, you know, truly, moments before we
started taping, I got sent motions that were filed in
court. So there is now a lawsuit about this. I did
not have a chance to open those documents. And so we
won't talk them talk about them today.
>> But I. Suspect that. >> We'll talk about this is
wrong. so and that's something
that's going to need to get resolved pretty quickly.
The primary is August 11th. >> And so for people who
you are talking tens of thousands of people who
voted, 8000 people have now voted absentee. So that's
definitely something that resolved through the courts,
potentially. But as of right now, those votes
cannot be counted in this very quickly shifting race
for governor. >> Well, they're counted,
but they just can't be disqualified. And I'm.
>> Glad you corrected me there.
>> They will absolutely. >> Actually be counted no
matter who you voted them for. But changing your mind
is not a reason to to recast your ballot.
According to Wisconsin Elections Commission
guidance. So that's all the time we have for today.
Thanks for joining us. This has been inside Wisconsin
politics. Be sure to follow us on PBS wisconsin.org.
WPR.org, YouTube, or wherever you get your
podcasts.