of candidates in Wisconsin's Democratic
primary for governor gets smaller as the campaign ad
war heats up and the vice president visits Wisconsin.
This is inside Wisconsin politics.
I'm Shawn Johnson here with Anya van
Wagtendonk and Zac Schultz.
Hey. >> So we've been talking
about this as a crowded Democratic primary for a
long time now. And we had seven Democratic candidates
just a few weeks ago. Then that was narrowed down to
six as Missy Hughes got out of the race. David Crowley
this week gets out of the race. Now we're down to
five. Zac, is it still crowded or is this race
shifted to you in a meaningful way?
>> I think the crowd it depends more on the lanes
of what we're talking about. I think there's clearly a
progressive lane. There's clearly a more
establishment center, government lane. And then
there's a question of if there's room in between for
any of the rest of them to kind of stake their own
area, or if they're competing for those two
groups. But there clearly is this sense, as the two
candidates have dropped out, that have now endorsed Sara
Rodriguez, that there is an establishment going on and
that fits with this national theme that we're
seeing of establishment Dems worrying about
progressive Dems potentially undermining
chances to win seats in November, versus
progressives who are saying, no, we are the ones that
are going to win these primaries and win in
November, get behind us as we keep going forward. So
there's definitely a shrinkage there, but it's
almost a shrinkage into lanes as opposed to these
individual candidates. >> How do you see those
lanes? I mean, I think just a few weeks ago, I was kind
of having a hard time putting the candidates into
different lanes or buckets, however you want to do it.
What are the lanes now as you see it?
>> Yeah. I think Zac sort of hit the nail on the head
with establishment versus progressive. And one way
that we're seeing that is when these candidates are
dropping out, that they are endorsing other candidates.
There's a world in which you drop out and you say, I
love my party and I all I want is for a Democrat to
win. And David Crowley did that kind of initially in
his original announcement that he was stepping down.
He didn't immediately endorse anyone. He said,
the most important thing is just that somebody beats
Tom Tiffany in the fall and then this morning came out
and endorsed Sara Rodriguez. So I think that's a sign
that people are kind of choosing teams and trying
to say, who do I think is the best ability for
Democrats to win in November? Is it the sort of
Hong progressive lane? Is it the Rodriguez, Moore
sort of establishment lane? >> Nobody that I've heard
has come out and said, well, we got to stop Francesca
Hong, you know, but we've seen this debate that
you've referenced at the national level where you
have sort of the national establishment, Democrats
fighting against this, you know, Democratic Socialist
caucus that's growing. Is there an unspoken we got to
stop Francesca Hong in all this, or are we making that
up? Are we looking for conflict where there is
none here in Wisconsin? >> I don't think it would
be wise for anyone to say that out loud from the
Democratic Party, because there's a very good chance
that Hong can win this, and then they have to unite
behind her. So that is the the other half of this game
is you can drop out and you can endorse someone that
you would prefer, but then you still want to create a
sense of party unity that that is still the goal is
for the Democrats in their minds, is to beat Tom
Tiffany. And whether that is Francesca Hong or
whether that's Sara or Brennan or Roys or
anyone that's still in this race at this point. They
have to worry about that in the long run. So in the
short run, we're not seeing some of the disunity of
attacking each other. That was a potential with a more
crowded race. There's still time. There's still million
dollar ad buys coming up. Kelda Roys just announced
an hour ago that she's got 1.2 million that she's
going to announce, and she's going to spend every
last penny of it. She's not going to drop out of this
race. And she has a history in some of these big
competitive elections of going a little contrarian
towards the end. So I don't think it's going to be all
quiet and rosy from from here until August. There's
going to be some fireworks as they try and create that
last separation to over the 30 to 35% that may
be needed to win. >> Anya, you were all set
to do this profile of David Crowley, which, you know,
it just sounds like it's not going to happen at this
point, but can you kind of talk through why it didn't
work out for his campaign from your perspective? I
mean, there's a world where you can imagine David
Crowley being seen as one of the frontrunners in this
race, and it never felt like that way as this
campaign unfolded. >> Yeah, one of the ways
that he was positioning himself throughout was
essentially, you know, I have the cities on lock. I
am a Milwaukee native. I have been able to work with
the suburbs. I represent a county that straddles
suburban and urban areas, and I can hold the line on
rural areas. So he was essentially making this
this kind of statewide candidate for many people.
One of the things that came up while I was trying to
write this profile that is no longer, you know,
whenever we write profiles, pour one out for my having
a little bit free time this weekend. But you know, you
always look for both supporters and critics. And
I could not find a critic of David Crowley. I called
people who have been on the record criticizing his, you
know, his policies and some of how he's handled, for
example, the lapse of health insurance at the
county level. And even his most vocal critics were
like, I really like him as a person. And I think he'd
work really well in Madison. And these are like
conservative Republicans that I'm calling. And so I
think that was kind of where he fit in. Is this
really kind of affable person who, who gets along
well with who plays nice with others. And I think in
a certain way, what we're seeing is that maybe that
is not as appealing to voters, that voters are mad.
And things are really hard for a lot of people right
now. And maybe they want somebody who seems like a
little bit of a fighter, maybe like a little bit of
a f you to, to some of the, the institutions that they
are not feeling very happy with right now.
>> So I think Sara Rodriguez would obviously
say this is great for me. He's endorsing me. Did you
notice that this is a unquestionably good news
for me? Is there a case that this is good for
Mandela Barnes? His campaign says, yes, we
benefit the most. He's willing to show.
>> It already making that case and everyone's inboxes
that will listen. And I think there's a rational
argument for especially for those that kind of follow
this from a distance, that put people into those other
broader categories. If we have two African American
men with Milwaukee roots that have connections to
that part of the state, deep establishment ties to
winning lots of local elections there, that you
could argue that some people may say, well,
that's a natural transition. If you liked David Crowley,
you should also like Mandela Barnes. They don't
have the same electoral history. They don't have
the same record of working in Madison. They have
challenged Mandela. Barnes has challenged members
within his own party. He's run a statewide contest.
David Crowley is known for working more with
Republicans as part of his pitch is I've worked with
people to help rural Wisconsin with his bills
for for local issues. So there's an argument at 1
Optic that this absolutely should help Mandela Barnes.
And then there is the the other end of it of who if
there is 5% that Crowley had in the state, were they
looking at him as more of that centrist candidate
government work and won't be too crazy or too loud?
More of a Tony Evers Steil or shucks, let's all work
together and make things function. Or were they
looking at him as more of a. We need someone from that
part of the state to fight for us. And that goes back
to that original argument we've been having. So we're
his 5%. Those. Let's get it done or let's fight. I
think that could determine where some of those voters
go. >> And I think it's a sign
that this race has kind of flown under the radar this
year, in that we haven't heard people complaining
about, gosh, just being bombarded by all these
political ads. There has not been an advertising
blitz in this race the way that we've seen in, you
know, the races for Supreme Court that we're used to by
now, or a November general election campaign. You know,
the kind of place you're going to see in a few
months. And so in that context, how does it matter,
I guess, when Sara Rodriguez says, I'm going
to have $1 million ad buy that I'm going to pay for
with my campaign in this sort of, you know, under
the radar race. >> You know, one person I
once spoke to, a political scientist I once spoke to,
kind of explained that money in politics kind of
serves two functions. So there's money as money,
right? Like the thing that you use to buy things and
she has $1 million to spend on this ad, but then it's
also money as a signal, as sort of a signal of your
strength, a signal of, you know, maybe I want other
candidates to kind of back off because I have this in
my bank account. What do you have? And so in this
case, it's kind of that, that twofer where both she
will be able to get a pretty sizable amount of
spread for her money paying directly from her campaign.
But then also it signals to the other candidates, like,
what do you got? Right? And so it kind of, again, is
her kind of establishing that she is a front runner
because she has this money to spend. And so maybe
she's also trying to, you know, sort of intimidate
others who may not have that, right? Like she's
sending the signal of, of come and get me.
>> I kind of wondered if that was a factor in
Crowley dropping out, actually, you know, because
they happened pretty close together. And I imagine a
decision like that builds up more than just overnight.
>> And it came right after the fundraising deadline.
And so it's possible, you know, that campaigns have
their internal goals of like, if we hit X by a
certain date, we're still viable. And one of the
things he said in his drop out was like, it is clear I
will not become the Democratic nominee. And so
clearly there's like a calculus of what makes that
clear. And maybe money was part of it.
got at least $1 million according to her. And she
has this outside group that has been spending money on
her behalf kind of throughout the year. And
they don't have to report their donors and kind of
like the Wild West in terms of fundraising. Zac, the,
the tone of the ad is, well, well, she says a bad word
to start out with. >> There's a bleep off the
top of the ad. And that's obviously very intentional.
They craft these ads with a lot of money spent on the
people writing the ads, speaking to specific
audiences. And I think there's a lot to actually
analyze within the decision of that word alone off the
top. >> I think.
first reaction that I have is, this is a sign of the
coarseness of American politics. Since Donald
and the atmosphere more than a decade ago, is that
it's acceptable for your political candidate to use
an expletive in their ad, even if it's bleeped out as
a way of showing their rawness, their
approachability, the way you know, maybe not the
dinner table, but at least at the bar or with friends.
I think there's a sense of that does make them more
real, in the same way that Tony Evers has been let off
the hook time and time again for swearing over and
over, because he seems like this kind old man. And when
he says it, he really means it. And if someone else
says it, oh, that's that's coarse and disgusting. So
it's definitely a change in that atmosphere. But it
also goes back to the original question we have.
This is a nicely themed episode, Shawn, of the
establishment versus the represent the establishment
in the center, she is the lieutenant governor at this
point, but she's the one showing a little more flair,
a little more fight with the words that she's
dropping off the top and talking about. She'll fight
for you. She's definitely reaching out to bring the
rest of that Democratic primary audience over to
her to say, I'm not just the person that is the
establishment, and that I'm the sitting lieutenant
governor and the first person to enter the race.
I'm also the person that will swear and fight for
you. The other person who likes to swear a lot in
this race, Francesca Hong, she's got a history of
dropping a few f bombs out there. So I think that
shows this broad spectrum and this interest in these
two different categories of voters.
>> Yeah. I mean, I'm reminded that Francesca
Hong in I believe her introductory speech in the
assembly dropped an f bomb. And in her final speech in
the Assembly, if you ever had a chance to see that,
she'd just let one linger as she bid farewell to her.
>> Plenty in between. Those weren't the only two.
>> No they're not. I think it's expected. I mean, I
think it's expected that in today's politics right now,
I think Democrats are so mad at President Trump that
you have to show in your ads that you're not just
like an old time Democrat, that you're going to get up
there and fight, fight, fight. I mean, that is the
word. not sort of part of this
establishment that people are so angry with and do
see, as, you know, too moderate or too incremental.
And so they don't want these sort of consultant
polished candidates. They want people who are more
real. That's certainly part of the appeal of Hong. I
keep hearing that from voters who support her, is
that she seems like she is who she's always been. And
the same way that you kind of hear about Bernie
Sanders. And, you know, it's hard this week to talk
about politics without mentioning sort of the
grand platinum situation in Maine. But one of the kind
of series of reactions to that has been now that he's
dropped out, the progressive wing saying,
wanted his politics, if not sort of all of the other
things that went along with it. So they're waiting to
see whether the Democratic Party, if they try to
shoehorn in a more establishment sort of
candidate. And so I think we're seeing these like
real fights. And so Wisconsin, I think, will be
another kind of bellwether, maybe not in the sort of
fireworks and really scandalous way of what's
going on in Maine. But I think that we're having
sort of our own version of that play out right here.
>> Yeah. I mean, I think nationalize or elsewhere
right now, but over the next month, we are going to
have a real debate among Democrats here about what
it means to be their party in 2026. What about Mandela
Barnes? As we kind of look at other advertising in
this race, he is one of the other candidates who at
least threw his own money and threw that outside.
Money has been up on the air, right.
>> He's gotten out there that it's hard to figure
out if he's rerunning his Senate race and living off
that experience of like, I'm the guy you remember
you liked me before I got the most votes of anyone
who's lost a U.S. Senate race. I should have won,
but I was the only one that lost to an incumbent. Or if
he's running a new race, but it doesn't feel like
there's a different message than there was before. So
he's definitely running on that platform. And the
question is, where does he fall within these
frameworks? We've talked about because he's got
establishment history. He's also got very progressive
history. The question is, does he carry through to
voters to say, no, I'm the best of both worlds and or
how much does that loss in the Senate race still
linger over the top of them, as his opponents have used
it against them on the campaign trail?
>> It does seem like when he got into the race, his
message was, I am the frontrunner here. You know,
it's just a matter of time. I am going to set the
agenda in this race and I'm focused on November. You're
now starting to see Sara Rodriguez make that same
general argument. Look, these candidates are coming
in endorsing me. The state party at the in the straw
polls has been supporting me. But, you know, we don't
know. We don't know. Mandela Barnes did come in
here with actual name recognition that nobody
else could really match. And so we'll find out soon
whether the other candidates have kind of
cracked the consciousness of people who've been on
their summer breaks here. >> Well, and one thing that
should also be noted is that while the Democrats
are kind of working all of this out amongst themselves,
and we are devoting so much airtime to what they're
talking about, Tom Tiffany essentially has the
Republican field to himself. And so he just launched his
own, his, I think, fourth ad campaign. And it shows
him having a pancake breakfast. And it's like
this very kind of wholesome, folksy, you know,
All-American. I'm a I'm a normal guy. You betcha.
Right. And because he kind of has the field to himself,
he doesn't need to be kind of parsing those, those
details. And I think it's really good for Republicans
that Democrats are kind of out there splitting hairs
in all of these different ways, splitting donors,
splitting attention while Tom Tiffany can just sort
of like have the field to himself. And so I think
we're also going to see a real shift in dynamic after
the primary, because that's when all of these national
Democratic groups, etc. will throw their weight
behind one candidate and see if they can pick up,
you know, whatever that is, six months or six weeks,
eight weeks of momentum. On top of everything that Tom
Tiffany has essentially had since January.
>> Yeah, you did see the Democratic Governors
Association through an affiliated group, start
running ads against him this week. But you're right,
he has spent millions of dollars just painting
himself as Mr. Wisconsin love pancakes. Old
Fashioneds just kind of like your neighbor,
basically. What's that? Primary is done. There's
just going to be an onslaught of money, though.
We got to talk about the vice president coming to
Wisconsin. He does that from time to time. Zac, why?
It's not a presidential year. He wasn't in a swing
district. What was he doing here?
>> Well, anytime a Republican comes to
Milwaukee, they're there to raise money. First and
foremost. The difference is he actually held an event
open to the public on top of it during the Bush era,
Republicans coming in constantly. It's just they
held a fundraiser and left town with the money, not
with any ad recognition. But he's still here
campaigning. He's campaigning for Tom Tiffany.
He's campaigning for himself. No matter what
Donald Trump thinks, he can't run for president
again. And JD Vance wants to be the presumptive
Republican nominee in 28. No one is beyond looking
two years ahead. That's actually a short window for
them to be looking ahead. So this was entirely
political, no matter what the the platform on the
stage said. >> Yeah, campaigning is
kind of like exercise, right? Like even when you
don't feel like doing it, it seems like candidates
feel like they got to keep coming to these swing
states. Just kind of rinse and repeat. Ana anything in
the message stand out or just the visit as a whole
stand out to you about why JD Vance is here now.
>> I mean, yeah, I think you can't in an election
year ignore Wisconsin or other swing states. I think
he was also campaigning for Derrick Van Orden to Bryan
Steil. targeted Republicans in
>> Yeah. So just again, sort of bringing some
national attention, some some money, but also he had
this message around fraud and rooting out fraud and
sort of the federal government's response to
fraud. And so I think this is a way in which we're
seeing that concept emerge as an election year issue
of sort of, you know, rooting out corruption. And
like they are going to be the honest and transparent
arm of government, which is a sort of interesting tack
to take at a time that I think people are much more
concerned about, you know, prices than necessarily the
specter of fraud. That, again, sort of there's no
evidence actually exists. >> All right. That's all
the time we have for today. Thanks for joining us. Our
colleague Rich Kremer will be back next week. This has
been inside Wisconsin politics. Be sure to follow
us on PBS wisconsin.org. WPR.org, YouTube, or
wherever you get your podcasts.