1 00:00:00,968 --> 00:00:03,871 President Donald Trump returns to Wisconsin. 2 00:00:03,937 --> 00:00:06,073 Candidates file nomination papers for governor, and 3 00:00:06,139 --> 00:00:08,909 the Wisconsin Supreme Court will hear an appeal of a 4 00:00:08,976 --> 00:00:11,411 redistricting case after all. Let's talk about a 5 00:00:11,478 --> 00:00:14,915 busy week of campaign news. This is inside Wisconsin 6 00:00:14,982 --> 00:00:16,650 politics. 7 00:00:18,619 --> 00:00:21,288 I'm Shawn Johnson, along with my colleagues, 8 00:00:21,355 --> 00:00:25,025 Rich Kremer in Eau Claire and Zac Schultz and Anya 9 00:00:25,092 --> 00:00:27,060 van Wagtendonk here in Madison. Hey, everyone. 10 00:00:27,127 --> 00:00:30,697 Hello. So, Zac, as we record this program right 11 00:00:30,764 --> 00:00:33,367 now, we just know that President Trump is coming 12 00:00:33,433 --> 00:00:36,937 to Wisconsin. It's a big deal anytime the president 13 00:00:37,004 --> 00:00:40,174 comes to your state. But it seems to be an especially 14 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:44,411 big deal now. What's different about this visit 15 00:00:44,478 --> 00:00:49,049 here in this point in 2026? >> Well, this is campaign 16 00:00:49,116 --> 00:00:51,218 visit. I mean, in the past, you could look at the 17 00:00:51,285 --> 00:00:53,387 president's visit. It's more about himself. This 18 00:00:53,453 --> 00:00:56,256 time, you can kind of look at it in terms of what does 19 00:00:56,323 --> 00:00:59,159 it mean for the fall or in one particular race in 20 00:00:59,226 --> 00:01:01,328 northern Wisconsin that Rich will, I'm sure, be 21 00:01:01,395 --> 00:01:04,031 talking about what it means for that primary in August. 22 00:01:04,097 --> 00:01:06,166 But specifically, we're Republicans show up with 23 00:01:06,233 --> 00:01:09,102 them now. We expect them all to be there, all the 24 00:01:09,169 --> 00:01:11,972 big names. But if you look back in history, more on 25 00:01:12,039 --> 00:01:14,208 the Democratic side, there is a history of some 26 00:01:14,274 --> 00:01:17,144 candidates really not sure if they want to sit next to 27 00:01:17,211 --> 00:01:19,580 an unpopular president in a midterm election. In 2010, 28 00:01:19,646 --> 00:01:22,382 President Obama came to Madison. There was a big 29 00:01:22,449 --> 00:01:24,651 question of whether Russ Feingold was going to 30 00:01:24,718 --> 00:01:27,654 appear on the stage. In the end, he did. But all the 31 00:01:27,721 --> 00:01:29,790 weeks leading up to it, his campaign wasn't sure he 32 00:01:29,857 --> 00:01:32,626 might be in Africa. He had some other things going on. 33 00:01:32,693 --> 00:01:34,828 And that was really a political question of does 34 00:01:34,895 --> 00:01:37,798 he want to be seen with him? And he ended up losing that 35 00:01:37,865 --> 00:01:40,567 race. That was the Tea Party wave before it was 36 00:01:40,634 --> 00:01:42,669 just two years ago. President Biden visited 37 00:01:42,736 --> 00:01:44,605 Madison off that disastrous debate performance. Tammy 38 00:01:44,671 --> 00:01:47,040 Baldwin was elsewhere. She didn't come to Madison to 39 00:01:47,107 --> 00:01:48,976 be with the president. That's about campaign 40 00:01:49,042 --> 00:01:51,011 optics. >> We should game out some 41 00:01:51,078 --> 00:01:53,981 of these names who might or might not be there in just 42 00:01:54,047 --> 00:01:57,150 a minute. But Rich, you are the closest to where the 43 00:01:57,217 --> 00:01:59,286 president will be. You're in Eau Claire. He's going 44 00:01:59,353 --> 00:02:02,222 to be in Chippewa County. What's the significance of 45 00:02:02,289 --> 00:02:04,157 where he's going to speak? And, you know, potentially 46 00:02:04,224 --> 00:02:07,027 what he's going to talk about? 47 00:02:07,594 --> 00:02:11,465 >> So Chippewa County kind of serves as a two for a 48 00:02:11,532 --> 00:02:15,269 twofer for the president and for Republicans. So it 49 00:02:15,335 --> 00:02:19,473 is essentially a that has two congressional 50 00:02:20,107 --> 00:02:22,376 districts to the north side of it. We're talking about 51 00:02:22,442 --> 00:02:24,878 the seventh Congressional District. That is the seat 52 00:02:24,945 --> 00:02:28,649 that Tom Tiffany, Congressman Tom Tiffany is 53 00:02:28,715 --> 00:02:32,920 vacating as he runs as a governor for Wisconsin. And 54 00:02:32,986 --> 00:02:35,956 then to the south of that line, it's the third 55 00:02:36,023 --> 00:02:39,459 Congressional District, and that is Republican Derrick 56 00:02:39,526 --> 00:02:42,596 Van Orden. And and he's in the middle of a pretty 57 00:02:42,663 --> 00:02:46,200 competitive reelection campaign. And it's just one 58 00:02:46,266 --> 00:02:50,637 of a small handful of seats that are considered toss 59 00:02:50,704 --> 00:02:53,373 ups. I mean, we're talking across the entire nation, 60 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:55,909 and he's running against someone who came pretty 61 00:02:55,976 --> 00:02:59,646 close in 2024. Rebecca Cooke she was within three 62 00:02:59,713 --> 00:03:03,650 percentage points in a year that that President Trump 63 00:03:03,717 --> 00:03:07,421 won the the state. So it's a different dynamic now. He 64 00:03:07,487 --> 00:03:10,290 needs all the help he can get. And the white House is 65 00:03:10,357 --> 00:03:12,526 responding in kind. >> And it seems like the 66 00:03:12,593 --> 00:03:15,062 message from the white House has been, we're going 67 00:03:15,128 --> 00:03:17,464 to talk about farmers. We're going to talk about 68 00:03:17,531 --> 00:03:20,434 agriculture in these settings in this district. 69 00:03:20,501 --> 00:03:23,070 Ana what can we make of that? 70 00:03:23,804 --> 00:03:26,206 about sort of the steep odds that the the ruling 71 00:03:26,273 --> 00:03:29,376 party, the the Republican Party is facing right now. 72 00:03:29,443 --> 00:03:31,211 Obviously, the president right now has some of his 73 00:03:31,278 --> 00:03:34,047 lowest approval ratings throughout his time in 74 00:03:34,114 --> 00:03:36,483 office, but farmers in particular have really 75 00:03:36,550 --> 00:03:39,186 helped deliver him victories. I believe in his 76 00:03:39,253 --> 00:03:42,222 last election, he won the vast, vast majority of sort 77 00:03:42,289 --> 00:03:45,726 of farm dependent counties in the country. And yet a 78 00:03:45,792 --> 00:03:48,195 lot of his policies, tariff policies in particular, 79 00:03:48,262 --> 00:03:50,631 have really been connected with some of the pain that 80 00:03:50,697 --> 00:03:53,901 farmers have been feeling. So tariffs that have caused, 81 00:03:53,967 --> 00:03:57,471 you know, weakened overseas markets for for corn and 82 00:03:57,538 --> 00:04:00,307 soy, and then increased prices on steel and 83 00:04:00,374 --> 00:04:03,810 aluminum. So we have seen changes in policies in ways 84 00:04:03,877 --> 00:04:06,446 that are, I think, aimed really directly at trying 85 00:04:06,513 --> 00:04:08,582 to appeal to these farmers. Earlier this week, he 86 00:04:08,649 --> 00:04:11,518 signed an executive order to lower some tariffs on 87 00:04:11,585 --> 00:04:13,620 agricultural equipment in particular. And so now he's 88 00:04:13,687 --> 00:04:16,890 coming to Wisconsin to talk directly to farmers and 89 00:04:16,957 --> 00:04:19,526 kind of try to make sure that that part of his base 90 00:04:19,593 --> 00:04:22,229 is secure. >> But Zac, as you 91 00:04:22,296 --> 00:04:24,798 mentioned, he is not coming for himself. He's not 92 00:04:24,865 --> 00:04:29,036 saying vote for me. He is coming to a county that 93 00:04:29,102 --> 00:04:30,938 straddles a couple districts, including, as 94 00:04:31,004 --> 00:04:34,908 Rich mentioned, our most competitive in Wisconsin. 95 00:04:34,975 --> 00:04:37,845 He's also coming at a time where if you just look at 96 00:04:37,911 --> 00:04:40,881 the latest national poll from Marquette University, 97 00:04:40,948 --> 00:04:44,685 he has a. 19% of voters approve of how he's 98 00:04:44,751 --> 00:04:49,423 handling gas prices, 22% on the cost of living. The 99 00:04:50,057 --> 00:04:53,126 economy's around 30%. His overall rating is at a 100 00:04:53,193 --> 00:04:57,664 record low 38, with disapproval creeping up. Is 101 00:04:58,498 --> 00:05:02,202 that good for someone like Derrick Van Orden? 102 00:05:02,269 --> 00:05:05,539 >> It doesn't help. But I think that the difference 103 00:05:05,606 --> 00:05:07,608 between these Republican candidates specifically and 104 00:05:07,674 --> 00:05:10,477 past like in past examples like Tammy Baldwin or Russ 105 00:05:10,544 --> 00:05:13,747 Feingold, is they the Republicans need this area, 106 00:05:13,814 --> 00:05:16,416 and they need Trump's voters to come out when he 107 00:05:16,483 --> 00:05:18,652 is not on the ballot. Republicans across the 108 00:05:18,719 --> 00:05:21,188 state struggle to get turnout, especially in 109 00:05:21,255 --> 00:05:24,191 western and northern Wisconsin. That is the Maga 110 00:05:24,258 --> 00:05:27,828 base of this state in the seventh and the third. And 111 00:05:27,895 --> 00:05:29,997 without those voters, they could really struggle in 112 00:05:30,063 --> 00:05:32,699 the fall. So they actually need to attach themselves 113 00:05:32,766 --> 00:05:35,369 even closer to Donald Trump at this point, even if it 114 00:05:35,435 --> 00:05:37,271 looks like, politically speaking, it may not be the 115 00:05:37,337 --> 00:05:40,107 smartest move because of his terrible numbers on a 116 00:05:40,174 --> 00:05:43,076 lot of things. And I'd like to meet the 19% of people 117 00:05:43,143 --> 00:05:45,379 who think gas prices are good right now, unless they 118 00:05:45,445 --> 00:05:47,447 are all biking or not driving themselves. There's 119 00:05:47,514 --> 00:05:49,883 really no one I've ever talked to in a while that 120 00:05:49,950 --> 00:05:53,086 says gas prices are doing great. 121 00:05:53,153 --> 00:05:55,189 kind of like, you know, biting their lip a little 122 00:05:55,255 --> 00:05:57,257 bit when they say that they're happy with that. 123 00:05:57,324 --> 00:05:59,993 Rich, what do you make of this visit here? 124 00:06:00,060 --> 00:06:02,196 >> Well, I wanted to go back and mention the 125 00:06:02,262 --> 00:06:04,064 seventh Congressional District. I failed to 126 00:06:04,131 --> 00:06:06,733 mention that. Well, so this is the seat that Tom 127 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:09,570 Tiffany is giving up to run for governor. But there's a 128 00:06:09,636 --> 00:06:12,606 big Republican primary going on right now up there. 129 00:06:12,673 --> 00:06:16,677 And Michael Alfonso is who is Shawn Duffy US 130 00:06:18,579 --> 00:06:20,914 Transportation Secretary Shawn Duffy's son in law 131 00:06:20,981 --> 00:06:24,751 has already been endorsed by President Donald Trump. 132 00:06:24,818 --> 00:06:27,855 So some of the Republicans, other Republicans in that 133 00:06:27,921 --> 00:06:31,058 race, are trying to use Alfonso's connections 134 00:06:31,124 --> 00:06:35,429 against him. So I guess Trump coming to here, if 135 00:06:35,495 --> 00:06:39,166 Alfonso shows up, which I would expect he would, you 136 00:06:39,233 --> 00:06:41,368 get the president talking about this person that a 137 00:06:41,435 --> 00:06:43,837 lot of people in northern Wisconsin might not know 138 00:06:43,904 --> 00:06:47,641 about yet, and also takes a little bit of the wind out 139 00:06:47,708 --> 00:06:49,743 of the sails of the Republican challengers that 140 00:06:49,810 --> 00:06:52,846 haven't dropped out yet. After that endorsement came 141 00:06:52,913 --> 00:06:56,383 way back in January. >> Yeah. So let's talk 142 00:06:56,450 --> 00:06:59,253 about a few of the people who might or might not be 143 00:06:59,319 --> 00:07:01,588 at this event. And depending on when you watch 144 00:07:01,655 --> 00:07:03,457 or listen to this show, you're going to know 145 00:07:03,524 --> 00:07:06,126 whether we got these answers right. So cut us 146 00:07:06,193 --> 00:07:08,128 some slack if we get anything wrong. Okay. 147 00:07:08,195 --> 00:07:09,997 Michael Alfonso, you mentioned it's in the 148 00:07:10,063 --> 00:07:13,267 seventh district. He is kind of the Trump candidate 149 00:07:13,333 --> 00:07:16,203 that that's his thing. So I think in that conservative 150 00:07:16,270 --> 00:07:19,239 district, I would be very shocked if he was not there 151 00:07:19,306 --> 00:07:22,876 to cheer on the president. I think we seem to be 152 00:07:22,943 --> 00:07:25,078 hinting at we expect Derrick Van Orden to be 153 00:07:25,145 --> 00:07:28,715 there. You know, a very strong Trump supporter 154 00:07:28,782 --> 00:07:32,286 going for that Trump voter who might stay home. How 155 00:07:32,352 --> 00:07:34,788 about Tom Tiffany, the Republican candidate for 156 00:07:34,855 --> 00:07:38,725 governor running in 5050 Wisconsin. Anyone want to 157 00:07:38,792 --> 00:07:41,728 take a stab at that? >> I think he's got to be 158 00:07:41,795 --> 00:07:44,665 there. I don't know why he wouldn't. It's next to his 159 00:07:44,731 --> 00:07:46,733 district. He's already tied himself to Trump over and 160 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:49,469 over and over. And he, like Van Orton, needs that 161 00:07:49,536 --> 00:07:51,672 turnout in northern Wisconsin that Trump can 162 00:07:51,738 --> 00:07:55,042 deliver that really no one else can. So it would be 163 00:07:55,108 --> 00:07:58,145 really odd, considering his past moves on election 164 00:07:58,212 --> 00:08:00,447 denials and all the other stuff where he's this 165 00:08:00,514 --> 00:08:04,451 closely related to Trump, including just voting to in 166 00:08:04,518 --> 00:08:08,622 Congress, not end the war in Iran, supporting Trump 167 00:08:08,689 --> 00:08:12,025 again in that area in a very political fashion in 168 00:08:12,092 --> 00:08:14,528 terms of like popularity. So I would be surprised if 169 00:08:14,595 --> 00:08:17,030 he wasn't there. >> Any any dissenters there. 170 00:08:17,097 --> 00:08:19,233 We think that Tiffany's probably going to be there. 171 00:08:19,299 --> 00:08:21,735 >> I assume so. >> Well, I mean. 172 00:08:21,802 --> 00:08:23,804 >> Getting the endorsement I think was like a really 173 00:08:23,871 --> 00:08:26,540 big deal for the Tiffany campaign, right? It made 174 00:08:26,607 --> 00:08:29,543 him sort of the heir apparent to the Republican 175 00:08:29,610 --> 00:08:32,112 path to the governorship. But he has been trying to 176 00:08:32,179 --> 00:08:34,615 thread this needle a little bit. And, you know, as 177 00:08:34,681 --> 00:08:37,518 Democrats try to really closely tie him to Trump to 178 00:08:37,584 --> 00:08:40,721 say that he is yes, he's aligned with those politics 179 00:08:40,787 --> 00:08:43,423 and some of those value systems, but he is not sort 180 00:08:43,490 --> 00:08:45,859 of in lockstep with Trump, and he doesn't always vote 181 00:08:45,926 --> 00:08:48,729 with him. 100% of the time. He made a sort of point of 182 00:08:48,795 --> 00:08:51,598 that at this appearance that he made in Madison a 183 00:08:51,665 --> 00:08:54,735 week or two ago. And so he wants to kind of show that 184 00:08:54,801 --> 00:08:57,638 he yes, he's in line with those values, but also he 185 00:08:57,704 --> 00:08:59,773 will put Wisconsin first. And so how does he thread 186 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:02,442 that needle at the visit? Again, maybe our viewers 187 00:09:02,509 --> 00:09:04,478 will already know and we'll be waiting to see. 188 00:09:04,545 --> 00:09:06,747 >> Right. Rich. >> I'm sorry. I stepped on 189 00:09:06,813 --> 00:09:11,652 what Anya was saying, but the I have seen some folks 190 00:09:11,718 --> 00:09:14,821 online point out, well, Tiffany has taken some 191 00:09:14,888 --> 00:09:19,126 small little stances against the war, you know, 192 00:09:19,193 --> 00:09:23,463 saying it needs to be wrapped up soon, etc. so 193 00:09:23,530 --> 00:09:25,732 they're arguing. Well, that's him putting a little 194 00:09:25,799 --> 00:09:28,602 bit of daylight between himself and the president. 195 00:09:28,669 --> 00:09:34,007 But as we know, he has been pretty much in lockstep for 196 00:09:34,074 --> 00:09:38,412 a long time. So I do expect him there. But there's a 197 00:09:38,478 --> 00:09:41,348 part of me that that is very contrarian and wants 198 00:09:41,415 --> 00:09:43,650 to push back just because you all say he's going to 199 00:09:43,717 --> 00:09:46,854 be there. But so if he's not, maybe it would be 200 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:50,424 because he's trying to appeal to the general 201 00:09:50,490 --> 00:09:52,759 election audience. >> All right, well, now 202 00:09:52,826 --> 00:09:55,863 that I got the three of you on the record and I didn't 203 00:09:55,929 --> 00:09:58,866 take a position, I think we should move on to the next 204 00:09:58,932 --> 00:10:00,734 topic. The candidate filing deadline. In the race for 205 00:10:00,801 --> 00:10:04,238 governor, you had candidates for governor, 206 00:10:04,304 --> 00:10:07,207 Attorney general, Congress, Assembly, Senate, you name 207 00:10:07,274 --> 00:10:10,711 it, filing their nomination papers in Madison ahead of 208 00:10:10,777 --> 00:10:15,249 this week's deadline. Nothing is final yet, Anya, 209 00:10:15,315 --> 00:10:19,820 but which you should explain to us. But we knew 210 00:10:19,887 --> 00:10:22,556 going in, there's a big field of people who said 211 00:10:22,623 --> 00:10:25,092 they were going to run for governor. What is sort of 212 00:10:25,158 --> 00:10:27,828 the lay of the land right now? 213 00:10:28,529 --> 00:10:30,464 million caveats about the various steps of review 214 00:10:30,531 --> 00:10:32,666 that they will go through with the Elections 215 00:10:32,733 --> 00:10:35,569 Commission. But as of right now, eight Democrats have 216 00:10:35,636 --> 00:10:38,305 filed their papers, two Republicans. And so that's 217 00:10:38,372 --> 00:10:42,910 a field of ten. Tom Tiffany sort of being the again, 218 00:10:42,976 --> 00:10:44,945 the kind of obvious frontrunner on the 219 00:10:45,012 --> 00:10:47,848 Republican side, less of an obvious frontrunner on the 220 00:10:47,915 --> 00:10:50,250 Democratic side. And then the big open question going 221 00:10:50,317 --> 00:10:52,419 into the filing deadline was whether Kirk Bangstad, 222 00:10:52,486 --> 00:10:54,588 the owner of Minocqua Brewing Company, this kind 223 00:10:54,655 --> 00:10:57,891 of liberal activist and perhaps social media 224 00:10:57,958 --> 00:11:00,594 provocateur, we might say whether he was going to get 225 00:11:00,661 --> 00:11:03,430 his papers in on time. He declared his candidacy just 226 00:11:03,497 --> 00:11:07,301 a few weeks ago. He got his signatures in. It seems 227 00:11:07,367 --> 00:11:10,370 that about a quarter of them, if not more, are not 228 00:11:10,437 --> 00:11:13,407 valid. So they didn't contain either the right 229 00:11:13,473 --> 00:11:16,243 voter information for the signers. And then about 40 230 00:11:16,310 --> 00:11:18,745 pages of them didn't have the right date of the 231 00:11:18,812 --> 00:11:21,548 election. So he has until Sunday to cure those. That 232 00:11:21,615 --> 00:11:24,251 is a tall order that involves filing affidavits. 233 00:11:24,318 --> 00:11:27,087 He can't just like go out and get 500 new signatures. 234 00:11:27,154 --> 00:11:29,089 So that's the big question. And then the elections 235 00:11:29,156 --> 00:11:31,358 commission will kind of vote and see whether 236 00:11:31,425 --> 00:11:33,894 everyone else qualifies. So as of right now, it seems 237 00:11:33,961 --> 00:11:36,663 that there are seven qualified Democrats, two 238 00:11:36,730 --> 00:11:39,867 qualified Republicans. And then the Kirk Bangstad 239 00:11:39,933 --> 00:11:42,035 question, right. >> And it's a big question, 240 00:11:42,102 --> 00:11:46,106 not only for Kirk Bangstad, it seems, but I mean, we're 241 00:11:46,173 --> 00:11:48,642 talking about what kind of a primary this is going to 242 00:11:48,709 --> 00:11:51,512 be, because let's say you're a candidate who 243 00:11:51,578 --> 00:11:55,048 wants to occupy that left flank of a seven candidate 244 00:11:55,115 --> 00:11:58,151 Democratic primary like Francesca Hong. Kirk 245 00:11:58,218 --> 00:12:01,889 Bangstad comes in and is attacking you from the left 246 00:12:01,955 --> 00:12:05,592 saying you're not left enough. He could pull away 247 00:12:05,659 --> 00:12:08,695 a few votes and it could make all the difference in 248 00:12:08,762 --> 00:12:12,065 a primary this big. Zac. >> It's possible. I mean, 249 00:12:12,132 --> 00:12:14,234 we are talking about a primary. If we get seven 250 00:12:14,301 --> 00:12:17,137 candidates going all the way to August, that, you 251 00:12:17,204 --> 00:12:19,640 know, it's not unreasonable to think that high 20 252 00:12:19,706 --> 00:12:22,042 percentage might be the winner if things get split 253 00:12:22,109 --> 00:12:24,645 pretty evenly. It really depends on whether those 254 00:12:24,711 --> 00:12:27,748 last 3 or 4 candidates at the bottom of the barrel 255 00:12:27,814 --> 00:12:31,552 are pulling 2%, or if they're pulling 5 or 6%, 256 00:12:31,618 --> 00:12:34,321 because those can add up to a big enough chunk of the 257 00:12:34,388 --> 00:12:36,456 electorate that they can swing an election towards 258 00:12:36,523 --> 00:12:39,326 the top when there may not be anyone that's really run 259 00:12:39,393 --> 00:12:42,229 away with it. So far, being dead is not something that 260 00:12:42,296 --> 00:12:44,264 most of the Democrats are taking seriously. They look 261 00:12:44,331 --> 00:12:47,067 at him as more of an online troll. Provocateur is a 262 00:12:47,134 --> 00:12:49,870 good, polite word. They don't always use polite 263 00:12:49,937 --> 00:12:53,106 words when they're talking about him. Republicans love 264 00:12:53,173 --> 00:12:55,042 having him in the conversation because he's 265 00:12:55,108 --> 00:12:57,377 just more ammunition for them to throw at Democrats. 266 00:12:57,444 --> 00:12:59,413 Democrats would like him out of the conversation for 267 00:12:59,479 --> 00:13:02,850 that very reason. >> So I guess I assumed 268 00:13:02,916 --> 00:13:05,319 when we were looking at this race way back in, I 269 00:13:05,385 --> 00:13:08,956 don't know, January maybe last year, even that by 270 00:13:09,022 --> 00:13:12,059 June, when it comes time to file signatures, maybe that 271 00:13:12,125 --> 00:13:14,895 hurdle right there would thin the field a bit. And 272 00:13:14,962 --> 00:13:19,199 it basically did not. Do you all think that this 273 00:13:19,266 --> 00:13:22,202 field will be smaller before people vote in 274 00:13:22,269 --> 00:13:24,738 August? That you'll have some candidates say, look, 275 00:13:24,805 --> 00:13:27,040 I know I'm on the ballot, but I'm dropping out of 276 00:13:27,107 --> 00:13:30,344 this race and I'm throwing my support behind someone 277 00:13:30,410 --> 00:13:34,648 else. Rich, you want to take a stab at this one? 278 00:13:35,282 --> 00:13:39,953 >> Well, I would you know, you would expect that the 279 00:13:41,088 --> 00:13:43,557 field would shrink a little bit. But also this is an 280 00:13:43,624 --> 00:13:47,427 open seat. So it's kind of a different ball game. And 281 00:13:47,494 --> 00:13:49,563 you know, why not keep going. We've got candidates 282 00:13:49,630 --> 00:13:54,468 that in polling have been hovering around 1%, you 283 00:13:54,535 --> 00:13:56,770 know, single digits essentially. And they're 284 00:13:56,837 --> 00:14:01,441 still in it. And I can't help but think of 2022. It 285 00:14:01,508 --> 00:14:05,379 was a US Senate race against Ron Johnson. And 286 00:14:05,445 --> 00:14:09,349 you had the majority. You know, you had the 287 00:14:09,816 --> 00:14:14,922 Democratic candidates all drop out all at once and 288 00:14:14,988 --> 00:14:18,425 endorse Mandela Barnes, who is now running for governor. 289 00:14:18,492 --> 00:14:22,296 But I really don't expect to see anything like that 290 00:14:22,362 --> 00:14:25,799 this go around. I could be wrong, but it just seems 291 00:14:25,866 --> 00:14:30,204 like the cost benefit analysis that they're 292 00:14:30,270 --> 00:14:33,874 they're reviewing these Democratic candidates is 293 00:14:33,941 --> 00:14:36,410 leading them to stay in it. >> And by contrast, you 294 00:14:36,476 --> 00:14:39,146 know, in 2018, the last time that there was a big 295 00:14:39,213 --> 00:14:42,149 open Democratic primary for governor, it was an even 296 00:14:42,216 --> 00:14:44,351 more crowded field. I think there were two drop outs, 297 00:14:44,418 --> 00:14:47,254 and it was still a larger field than it currently is. 298 00:14:47,321 --> 00:14:50,023 And Evers emerged from that governor Tony Evers, with a 299 00:14:50,090 --> 00:14:52,960 decent chunk of but not a majority of the votes. He 300 00:14:53,026 --> 00:14:56,396 didn't have more than 50%. And so we could be seeing 301 00:14:56,463 --> 00:14:59,199 sort of a similar dynamic throughout the summer. One 302 00:14:59,266 --> 00:15:01,668 of the big questions, of course, is who can maintain 303 00:15:01,735 --> 00:15:04,104 the money that it takes to kind of get through to 304 00:15:04,171 --> 00:15:06,840 August, but especially if you see yourself as kind of 305 00:15:06,907 --> 00:15:09,743 standing out from the pack of like occupying a lane to 306 00:15:09,810 --> 00:15:11,979 yourself, why not kind of keep running in that way? 307 00:15:12,045 --> 00:15:15,349 To your point, will there be then when people do 308 00:15:15,415 --> 00:15:17,518 start dropping out? And I do think we're going to see 309 00:15:17,584 --> 00:15:20,220 some before the primaries, but there's going to be 310 00:15:20,287 --> 00:15:22,155 some trading, like there's going to be backdoor 311 00:15:22,222 --> 00:15:23,490 discussions. I know everyone hates talking 312 00:15:23,557 --> 00:15:26,026 about how those happen in politics, you know, to 313 00:15:26,093 --> 00:15:28,896 trade my support for you. And so that'll be really 314 00:15:28,962 --> 00:15:31,832 interesting to see who wants to kind of give it up 315 00:15:31,899 --> 00:15:34,368 this time in exchange for something else down the 316 00:15:34,434 --> 00:15:36,069 line. >> Yeah. The two things to 317 00:15:36,136 --> 00:15:39,173 look at ahead of those are one staffing. If we see, 318 00:15:39,239 --> 00:15:41,742 because we get the emails, the press releases, we know 319 00:15:41,808 --> 00:15:43,877 who their campaign staffers are, I would never expect 320 00:15:43,944 --> 00:15:46,647 the general public to have an idea of who these people 321 00:15:46,713 --> 00:15:48,949 are. But if we see changes in staffing, then that 322 00:15:49,016 --> 00:15:51,852 means they don't have the money to pay them, or those 323 00:15:51,919 --> 00:15:54,855 people are moving on to a new race or a new position. 324 00:15:54,922 --> 00:15:57,057 It really doesn't cost much to run for governor in 325 00:15:57,124 --> 00:15:59,793 Wisconsin. It's gas money, which I know is more than 326 00:15:59,860 --> 00:16:02,696 it has been in past years, but it's still it's not 327 00:16:02,763 --> 00:16:04,798 that difficult, and it's not even that difficult to 328 00:16:04,865 --> 00:16:06,900 get 2000 signatures. Quite honestly. We have lots of 329 00:16:06,967 --> 00:16:09,770 candidates. You just go out and knock doors and anyone 330 00:16:09,837 --> 00:16:11,839 will sign something we put in front of them. The other 331 00:16:11,905 --> 00:16:14,708 thing to look at is, is there a reason that 332 00:16:14,775 --> 00:16:17,644 consolidation might from doing something in a 333 00:16:17,711 --> 00:16:19,780 race, and if they actually have enough support to 334 00:16:19,847 --> 00:16:21,949 throw behind someone else and kind of make that move 335 00:16:22,015 --> 00:16:24,618 or bargain for them, they almost have, have, have 336 00:16:24,685 --> 00:16:26,887 enough leverage to like, say, I can deliver my 337 00:16:26,954 --> 00:16:29,489 voters or my name comes with enough people to make 338 00:16:29,556 --> 00:16:32,659 it worth this effort. >> The one thing I'd add to 339 00:16:32,726 --> 00:16:35,462 everything that you all have said is that I think 340 00:16:35,529 --> 00:16:39,900 that 22 experience could discourage some people to 341 00:16:39,967 --> 00:16:43,270 stay, to drop out. What I mean is that the idea in 342 00:16:43,337 --> 00:16:45,939 2022 was, we're all going to get behind this one 343 00:16:46,006 --> 00:16:47,941 candidate. Everybody put aside your political 344 00:16:48,008 --> 00:16:50,511 ambitions and Bakke Mandela Barnes it didn't work out 345 00:16:50,577 --> 00:16:52,713 for Mandela Barnes, you know, and so those 346 00:16:52,779 --> 00:16:54,982 candidates who dropped out maybe look at that and say, 347 00:16:55,048 --> 00:16:59,219 hey, why not me? So they could be having a similar 348 00:16:59,286 --> 00:17:01,922 calculation this time around real quick before we 349 00:17:01,989 --> 00:17:04,625 wrap up. And we'd give more time to this if this was a 350 00:17:04,691 --> 00:17:06,760 bigger decision. But we have to address this 351 00:17:06,827 --> 00:17:08,629 Wisconsin Supreme Court decision. Briefly, Rich, 352 00:17:08,695 --> 00:17:11,598 they dealt with this redistricting case on the 353 00:17:11,665 --> 00:17:15,569 congressional map. Was it a momentous decision or 354 00:17:15,636 --> 00:17:18,672 incremental? You know, you tell me. 355 00:17:18,739 --> 00:17:21,942 >> It was not momentous. People might get excited 356 00:17:22,009 --> 00:17:24,878 when they see, oh, they're taking up this 357 00:17:24,945 --> 00:17:27,748 redistricting appeal, but really what they were 358 00:17:27,814 --> 00:17:30,017 addressing is whether or not a three judge panel 359 00:17:30,083 --> 00:17:33,554 that they appointed made the right decision in 360 00:17:33,620 --> 00:17:35,956 dismissing this lawsuit. What's interesting about 361 00:17:36,023 --> 00:17:40,160 this lawsuit is it's not arguing that the the 362 00:17:41,094 --> 00:17:43,630 congressional map is a partizan gerrymander. It's 363 00:17:43,697 --> 00:17:46,500 saying, no, this is an anti-competitive 364 00:17:46,567 --> 00:17:50,070 gerrymander. So a different kind of nuanced approach. 365 00:17:50,137 --> 00:17:53,941 But ultimately they want new maps. So this doesn't 366 00:17:54,007 --> 00:17:56,476 mean that they're going to be issuing any decisions 367 00:17:56,543 --> 00:18:01,114 anytime soon. It's it's it would be shocking if the 368 00:18:01,181 --> 00:18:04,117 anything came before the elections this year. 369 00:18:04,184 --> 00:18:06,119 >> Yeah. Never, never say never in politics, but it 370 00:18:06,186 --> 00:18:09,790 does not feel like at this moment the kind of 371 00:18:09,857 --> 00:18:12,693 redistricting moves you're seeing in other states 372 00:18:12,759 --> 00:18:15,596 around the country right now. That's all the time we 373 00:18:15,662 --> 00:18:19,600 have for today. Thanks for joining us. This has been 374 00:18:19,666 --> 00:18:24,471 inside Wisconsin politics. wisconsin.org. WPR.org, 375 00:18:24,538 --> 00:18:28,675 YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.