Wisconsin Republicans convene a
special session on gerrymandering and nothing
really happens. But what
does it mean that they kept the session open? Plus,
another key GOP senator retires and the race for
governor picks up steam. This is Inside Wisconsin
Politics.
I'm Shawn Johnson here with my colleagues,
Anya van Wagtendonk Zac Schultz and Rich Cramer in
Eau Claire. Hey, everyone. >> Hello, Shawn. Hey.
>> So, Anya, I think there's actually a lot to
kind of pick apart in terms of why Republicans did what
they did with this session and what this issue means
to the parties this year. But first, for people who
have not experienced the drama of a special session,
I think maybe they hear that word special and
assume it is kind of a big deal. What's it actually
like in the room where this happens?
regular sessions, I think something that not a lot of
people know is that there are very few surprises
during a regular session. Right? If something is
coming to the floor, that means the majority wants it
there. Generally speaking, going to happen with a
special session, and especially this time around,
where Republicans hadn't signaled in advance that
they hated the idea. There was really an open question
of exactly what was going to happen on that day. So
going into it, I kind of needed to be in two places
at once. I needed to be in both the Assembly and the
Senate. And then thankfully, Assembly leadership sent
out a message saying, we're going to keep this open,
but that's so that we can have negotiations. So okay,
so that signals that like, maybe I don't need to be in
the assembly. So we go over to the Senate. That's where
all of the reporters are waiting to see what exactly
is going to happen in the Senate. And then there was
just a lot of waiting around. Only Democrats were
showing up. Finally, Democrats hold a press
conference to kind of criticize their colleagues
across the aisle saying they're not doing anything.
Republican leaders show up and say, we too are leaving
the session open. And so the end result is that it
was a whole lot of waiting around for nothing but the
nothing could become reached sort of
negotiations with the governor and then reconvene
at some point in the future. >> And I can tell you,
because we did team coverage on this one in the
Assembly, it was a whole lot of milling about would
be the way I'd describe it. I don't think they even had
gavels this time, which feels like it's really kind
of a pretty, pretty chill in there. So, okay, the
special session was not all that dramatic, but the
important thing is this thing is technically open.
So, Zac, I guess my question is, why is that?
I'm. Maybe it's just muscle memory, but I just am used
to this Republican legislature being pretty
comfortable telling this governor, don't tell us
what to do. >> Well, there's only one
of two reasons why to keep it open. One, because maybe
they actually want to do something and B, be good to
their word and negotiate and try and pass this
constitutional amendment or it open are important to
their base and their voters, because redistricting and
gerrymandering is an especially this time around,
it's Republican voters who understand, oh, this is why
we're potentially losing the Senate, and we lost a
bunch of races in the seat. It doesn't feel good to be
on this end of it. And so maybe since both sides have
felt the effects of when it's not in your favor,
that perhaps there's an idea of, hey, let's come to
a compromise and try and resolve this.
>> Rich, what do you think? Is this a real session here?
Could something actually >> I suppose it could. This.
There's been a lot of surprises in the this
session and the end of the last session for me. I
started working at WP in 2011 about. And you know,
I'm used to seeing Gavelin gavel out, essentially
saying thanks, but no thanks from the Republicans
saying that to Governor Tony Evers. But we've got
these new state legislative maps. You know, control of
the Senate is a big question mark after the
November election. So they're just acting
differently. What it means. I don't know what happens.
I really don't know. >> You know, coming back to
the optics that you mentioned there, I feel
like that is probably a big factor. You know, whatever
ends up being decided here. Just thinking back to 2024,
which was the first year that we had elections under
these new, more competitive legislative maps. And I got
to edit a bunch of stories from reporters around the
state. And I swear, the number one thing I heard in
every story from these candidates in these
contested districts, these 5050 districts, was voters
want candidates who will work across the aisle and
not, you know, get into these fights in Madison,
Wisconsin. So if you're trying to do what's best
for those candidates right now, why not keep it open?
You know, why not keep that an option for them to at
least talk about? Ana, did you get the sense that the
governor kind of saw that too, with the statement
that he put out after this session? It was pretty like,
get going. You know, get yourselves in gear here.
>> The statement that said there is actually nothing
to negotiate. While we are wondering whether he and
Republicans are in the middle of negotiations
around this language, yeah, it does kind of raise the
question of what those negotiations will look like
and to what extent. This is about sort of a messaging
war going into this election year. One of the
things that he also said in that statement was, you
know, lawmakers will have to go on the record about
their feeling about gerrymandering. And so if
they don't, if they don't hold this session, if they
don't go to the floor, that is a statement. And so
really trying to, again, kind of put the onus on
Republicans who are, especially in the Senate,
quite vulnerable right now to make the point to their
voters where they stand on this issue.
the skeptic here for one more minute here as to why
they might not want to do this. This is a Republican
legislature. We've been talking about how the
Supreme Court has this liberal majority that could
be there for years. The resolution that the
governor is proposing just says, basically, districts
shall not provide a disproportionate advantage.
Partisan gerrymandering is prohibited. It's pretty
thin. Who's going to interpret that if they
passed it? >> Well, there's only two
ways to interpret it. One is they actually negotiate
state law. That gives a definition for what that
means. That could be the negotiations happening as a
a parallel bill, if that was actually going to be
resolved through the legislature and the
it's going to be the Supreme Court. And
ultimately, no matter what gets passed, it'll be the
Supreme Court, because these would be added to the
Wisconsin Constitution. This would be a
constitutional amendment, big language that does not
have definitions so far in state law. And that really
would be a liberal Supreme Court, more than likely
coming back to say, well, this is what we determined
to be partizan gerrymandering or this is
what we think is an advantage for Partizans.
>> Rich, what happens when you invite a court to start
talking about statistics and mathematics?
>> Oh, you know, like a three year court trial. I'm
exaggerating. But what also happens is the courts have
generally not wanted to touch this, this claim,
this partizan gerrymandering claim from
the U.S. Supreme Court to the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
They've just wanted to avoid it. And if we look
back to when the legislative maps passed by
Republicans in 2011 were struck down, they didn't do
it. They didn't take up the partisan gerrymandering
claim. They got around that by looking at contiguity of
districts. Whether or not one district has a piece in
another. So that was, in a way, a technicality. They
did get to the same place that the plaintiffs wanted,
which was new maps, but it took a bit of a roundabout
way to get there. >> Okay, before we move on
from this, can we just kind of explore the possibility
that maybe there would be a scenario where Republicans
really would look at the situation and say, hey,
let's pass this. Let's make a deal with the governor.
Let's say it's November after the election. How
might that play out? >> I think the biggest
variable is who wins in November. Because remember,
constitutional amendments need two consecutive
sessions so this legislature can pass it all
the way through December 31st. But then the next
legislature, which will be made up in November
elections, will determine whether it gets passed
again. And so that's the key element there. Is there
a scenario where the winners in the fall
indicate we would like to actually pass this? And so
there's incentive to do it in a lame duck, possibly.
>> If if they don't have the majority, maybe they
say this is their best outcome.
>> Possibly. >> Okay, well, we've
already seen the current map kind of having an
effect on the upcoming races here, especially in
the state Senate, where we know, you know, majority
control is going to hinge on who wins for state
Senate seats. Rich, you're sitting in one of those
districts right now, I believe. And there was some
news there this week. What happened?
>> Well, first let me take you on a tour of the 31st
Senate District. So what happened was one of the
Republicans in a race for the 31st or the Republican
in the race for the 31st Senate district announced
that he's dropping out. He's not going to run
against Democrat Jeff Smith. So this was Senator Jesse
James, and he was in a different district. But
because of the the map redrawing, he was going to
have to face Smith. So two incumbents. But now you've
got one incumbent. You've got the Democrat in the
race who's already represented the district,
even though it's changed a little bit. So big picture
when the maps were redrawn. There's four Senate
districts that are deemed competitive that it's it's
really kind of a coin flip or just about. And we've
seen retirements from three of the Republicans in four
of those districts. And, you know, that in and of
itself is a big signal for how people are feeling
about the fall election. So I guess in a way, it
complicates Republicans chances of holding the
Senate majority and definitely gives some fuel
to Democrats who are getting pretty excited
about November. >> So we have elections to
that are going to have to take place before we get
the answers to these questions. But, Anya, I
would suspect that Senate Republicans would have
preferred to run these races in these, you know,
three of these four key seats with Senators Hutton,
with Senator James, with Senator Wanggaard, you know,
what position are they in now?
>> I mean, it's interesting, like there's a mix of
reasons why these lawmakers have said that they are
stepping down. Again, as Rich just alluded to,
Democrats are trying to spin this as, you know,
they're kind of running scared. But it is it raises
sort of the question of who will then run in their
spots. So Jesse James is a really interesting example.
He has worked quite a bit across the aisle. He's been
a real leader on criminal justice issues. One of my
favorite sort of fun facts is that he and Madison
Democrat Sheila Stubbs are like best friends, and they
do a lot of work together. He's done a lot on mental
health, and so he is a really different kind of
Republican than you might see in, let's say, suburban
Milwaukee or something like this. And so the question
think Zac has made this point before that when
you're in the minority and when you are kind of
pushing up against a less likely scenario, more sort
of fringe candidates or people further to the left
or the right tend to be the ones who come forward. And
so there will be a really interesting question to see
who is entering these races in November and what that
does for who's wanting to vote in November.
>> We already have our first answer in this
particular race, the first Republican to announce
they're going to run her. Her middle name is MAGA
Dance, and she put that on all of her campaign signs
two years ago when she ran and lost in an assembly
race. And you cannot connect yourself literally
more closely by putting your name and making it
close to Trump's Maga movement. And that is who
is running in that Republican district, which
is now drawn to be Democrat, has a Democrat incumbent.
And as we've talked about over and over on this show,
you don't have to look any more past what the
candidates do. And when they are not running, that
tells you they know the environment they're up
against. Every one of them will have their own
individual story, but the larger picture gives us a
pretty clear roadmap of what Republicans think of
their odds in the Senate specifically. But to go
back to Robyn Vos holding the assembly for all those
years, we saw a number of elections in 18 and in 22,
where top of the ballot, Tammy Baldwin or Tony Evers
would win some of those Republican Assembly seats
and Republicans down ballot won them. And in part was
because incumbents name recognition, fundraising
ability. And when you have people drop out, you lose
all of that. You don't have the name. You don't have
the person that knows how to knock the doors, that
has the community connections, and they don't
raise as much money. That really does put them in a
big hole. backdrop, you have these
signals being sent by Republicans dropping out of
these races. You have the Supreme Court blowout of a
couple a week ago. I guess now it's not at this moment
looking great for them. So why would Republican
Congressman Tom Tiffany, the candidate for governor,
pick now to come out with a seven figure ad buy in the
governor's race? >> He's trying to reset the
landscape. Absolutely. This is the perfect time to
reframe it coming out of that Supreme Court race and
say, we've got four months until the August primary
and then a few months after that and into November. And
he is the lone Republican out there. So he it's a
positive add. If you watch the ad, it's not hitting on
anyone. It's talking about where his values and where
he grew up and on a dairy farm and what he's done for
his experience and how much he loves the state. Those
are all things that play really well statewide. And
when he has to boost his name recognition, if you
look at the polling, it's still 65% of Republicans
weren't sure. And he was really the only major
candidate left. So he has to win his base. And
there's room for moderates and independents who,
especially looking at that national landscape, may say,
well, if there's going to be Democrats in one chamber,
well, who's going to run the state? He has an
opportunity to reset his agenda, give himself a
little distance from Trump, whose name right now is not
very popular in Wisconsin among independents, young
people and a lot of other groups. So this is a time
for him to own the stage by himself. While the
Democrats don't have money to go on the air in a seven
way primary. >> A rare window to run
positive ads, we know he he likes old Fashioneds and
the Packers and, you know, all this cliche Wisconsin
stuff he says about himself. Rich. There was another
message in there in the Tom Tiffany ad that caught your
eye. >> Yeah. There was he he
basically was saying that he'd fight against, you
know, Wall Street buying up residential homes and, and
push back against big tech, bulldozing farmland for
data centers. Those are talking points that are
more akin to something you'd hear out of Democrats
in recent years. So that is really interesting. And to
pivot off of what Zac was saying, Tiffany's trying to
define himself before one of the Democrats define him
as or they they have already. But until the
whole connection with President Trump sticks more.
So he's getting out ahead of it. And also, I've seen
a lot of conservatives on social media say, this is
this ad won him the election. Well, that's an
exaggeration. But, you know, we've seen people tend to
like kind of boring folks in general elections.
Governor Evers is an example. So maybe Tiffany's
trying to make that happen and build that reputation
for himself. >> Shawn, I want to ask you
about this because I got the sense that he was
trying to rebrand himself as a folksy guy. Now, if
you look back at the history of candidates
winning elections, you look at Evers and Tommy Thompson.
I mean, what's your impression of what
attributes do they share in common when it comes to
being the everyman in Wisconsin, that folksy
nature? at right now in Wisconsin
politics that Rich said the word boring. But I think
these candidates kind of embrace that. Though. Tony
Evers gives off this shucks vibe that is his brand.
Scott Walker once described himself as aggressively
normal when he was running for president. And I think
people in other states thought, what? But, you
know, we know here. Yeah, that's what won the
election. Even, you know, like Jim Doyle, Harvard Law
educated, he would kind of drop his R's when he was
out on the campaign trail because he knows what he
was going for with that vibe. And so it is
something that Tom Tiffany seems to have going for him
that that guide that you could see at a bar talking
about sports or you name it. There was one development
in the Democratic primary that I'd like to touch on
if we can. There's still a big primary. There's seven
candidates who've been forms that you all have
covered. One of them got a fairly big endorsement in
Democratic politics. Anya, can you tell us about that?
>> Yeah. And then I actually also want to turn
it back to you. So Kelda Roys got this major
endorsement from Wittke, this big education teachers
union and the sort of open question that I have and
that you and I have discussed is, how
significant is that now? So in the past, that would
have been sort of almost like a kingmaking move. She
is certainly really kind of trying to promote it, in
part because her polling numbers have been pretty
low throughout. So this could be a last chance, a
last ditch effort. But I'm curious what you think
compared to, again, like eight years ago, what what
this endorsement could mean? >> Well, I mean, I think
Zac, you know, when before we had lost a lot of its
power with act ten, it was a huge endorsement. I think
in a Democratic primary. It's something they
certainly have to take note of, though. You can't
ignore the largest teachers union. To me, it just
signals that this primary that we sort of are
expecting to get smaller organically at some point.
Kelda Roys not going to go anywhere when she has the
teachers union on her side. So that is one that seems
like it's going to take a little more time to to sort
out here. So that's all the time we have for today.
Thanks for joining us. This has been inside Wisconsin
politics. Be sure to follow us on PBS Wisconsin. Org.
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