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Democratic candidate

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David Crowley ties

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Republican Tom Tiffany

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among registered voters

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at 44% each, with 12% undecided.

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But among likely voters

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Crowley comes in at 49%

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to Tiffany's 44%

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with 7% undecided.

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What is this gap between

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the registered

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and the likely voters?

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It comes down to two things.

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One is Democrats are a

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little bit more likely to say

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they're sure they're

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going to vote in November

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so they get a little bump there.

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But Democrats are also

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more loyal to

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their party's candidate

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among likely voters than they

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are among registered voters.

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So you put those

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two things together

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and that accounts for

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why it's a 5-point

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still a close race

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but a 5-point lead

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with likelies

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while it's tied with registered.

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Where do independent voters

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fall in their choice?

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First of all, pretty undecided.

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So there's quite a bit of

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undecided independents.

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They lean towards Crowley

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more than to Tiffany

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but

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between a 30% and a 55%

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undecided rate.

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There are a lot of

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undecided independents

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out there.