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So going into your

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national polling

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in 2026 congressional elections

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you found that

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among likely voters

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53% of respondents

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would vote for Democrats

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with 44%

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voting for Republicans.

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Does that result

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surprise you?

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It's a large result.

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That's a nine-point gap.

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That's very substantial.

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Interestingly

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with registered voters

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it's a five-point gap

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a little bit smaller.

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The difference between

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those is Democrats now

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are more likely to say

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they're certain

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they're going to

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vote in the fall

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by about seven points

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more likely, in this

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national poll.

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So you've got both

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the preference for Democrats

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and the motivation

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to turn out.

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And those two

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things together

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with the likely vote numbers

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drives up

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00:00:43,610 --> 00:00:44,778
that Democratic margin

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quite a bit.

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So what is driving

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this sentiment

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among respondents

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certain to vote?

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Is it all about Donald Trump

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and how he is governing?

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I think it's

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enormously about Trump

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though Trump's overall job

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approval is not much less

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than it was recently.

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In fact, it's

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exactly the same

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as in our September poll.

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But

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the concern about inflation

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and the economy

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and the belief

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that Donald Trump

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is not addressing

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those problems well

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those are things

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that hurt the president

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but hurt his party

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and help Democrats at

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this point.