% >>> WELCOME TO "NOON
% WEDNESDAY," I'M MARISA WOJCIK,
% MULTIMEDIA JOURNALIST FOR "HERE%
& NOW" ON PBS WISCONSIN.
% TODAY IS NOVEMBER 10.
% THIS WEEK, THE STATE LEGISLATURE
% IS VOTING ON MAP PROPOSALS THAT
% CHANGE THE BOUNDARIES OF THE
% STATE ASSEMBLY IN THE SENATE AS
% WELL AS CONGRESS DISTRICTS FOR
% THE NEXT TEN YEARS.
% THE REDISTRICTING PROCESS IS
% CONFUSING AND SOMETIMES EVEN
% CONTRADICTORY, HOWEVER, A TOOL
% CALLED THE VOTER PARTISAN INDEX
% IT CAN HELP US UNDERSTAND HOW A
% DISTRICT IS SKEWED.
% JACK KELLY FROM "THE CAP TIMES"
% WHO COMPILED THE DATA FOR THE
% INDEX IS JOINING ME NOW, AND,
% JACK, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR%
BEING HERE.% >> HEY, HAPPY TO BE HE
RE, THANKS
% FOR HAVING ME.
% >> SO JUST TO START KIND OF FROM
% THE 30,000 FOOT VIEW, WHAT
% INFORMATION DOES SOMETHING LIKE
% A PARTISAN VOTER INDEX PROVIDE
% TO THE AVERAGE VOTER?
% IT SOUNDS A LITTLE INTIMIDATING.
% >> SURE.
% SURE.
% SO THE PVI IS MEANT TO SHOW THE
% PARTISAN SKEW BASED ON VOTING
% TRENDS OF A LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT
% IN WISCONSIN.
% WE HAVE 132 LEGISLATIVE
% DISTRICTS, 99 IN THE ASSEMBLY,
% AND 33 IN THE STATE SENATE.
% WHAT THE PVI SHOWS IS HOW MANY
% PERCENTAGE POINTS ON AVERAGE
% DOES A LEGISLATIVE VOTE MORE
% DEMOCRATIC OR REPUBLICAN BASED
% ON VOTING TRENDS, AND VOTING
% TRENDS FOR THE DATA BASE ARE THE
% ELECTION RESULTS FROM THE 2020
% PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND THEN
% THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
% >> AND SO TELL US HOW THE
% PARTISAN VOTING INDEX WORKS IN
% GENERAL.%>> SURE.
% SO THERE IS TWO MAPS, AND,
% BASICALLY, THEY ARE INTERACTIVE,
% AND YOU ARE ABLE TO LOOK AT ALL
% OF THE LEGISLATIVE DISTRICTS IN
% THE STATE, AND EACH DISTRICT
% GETS A PVI SCORE.
% THOSE PVI SCORES COULD BE R PLUS
% 10 OR D PLUS 4 OR TOSSUP.
% WHAT'S THAT MEAN?
% R PLUS 10 MEANS THAT DISTRICT
% VOTES TEN PERCENTAGE POINTS MORE
% REPUBLICAN THAN THE STATE AS A
% WHOLE.
% THAT MEANS THE SAME THING FOR
% DEMOCRATS, AN THEN TOSS YOU%
RATINGS MEAN DISTRICTS ARE WHAT
% THEY SOUND LIKE, TOSSUPS.
% THAT MEANS THEY ARE LESS THAN
% 1.5 PERCENTAGE POINTS SKEWED IN
% EITHER DIRECTION.
% THE TOSSUP METRIC IS A LITTLE
% ARBITRARY, BUT 1.5 PERCENTAGE
% POINTS WE THOUGHT FAIR GIVEN
% TURNOUT IS KEY IN THE ASSEMBLY
% DISTRICTS AND TO SHIFT 1.5
% PERCENTAGE POINTS IS NOT MUCH IN
% A GENERAL ELECTION LIKE A
% PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WHERE YOU
% HAVE A HIGHER TURNOUT, AND SO IT
% IS THREE METRICS SHOWING THE
% PARTISAN SKEW AND TOWARDS
% REPUBLICANS, DEMOCRATS, OR VERY
% A FEW OCCASIONS IN WISCONSIN, A
% TRUE TOSSUP.
% >> SO YOU ARE TAKING THE VOTING
% TRENDS OF HOW PEOPLE IN
% WISCONSIN HAVE VOTED FOR
% PRESIDENTS OVER THE LAST TWO
% ELECTIONS, SO 2016 TO 2020, AND
% THE AVERAGE OF THAT IS THE
% BASELINE, AND THEN IF A
% PARTICULAR DISTRICT VOTED A
% CERTAIN PERCENTAGE POINT ABOVE
% THAT BASELINE, THEN THEY ARE
% GOING TO HAVE R-PLUS-10, FOR
% EXAMPLE, AND SO IT REALLY KIND
% OF SHOWS YOU, REALLY, HOW STRONG
% CERTAIN POLITICAL LEANINGS ARE
% IN CERTAIN DISTRICTS, IS THAT
% RIGHT?%>> YEAH.
% THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT.
% IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW, LIKE
% YOU SAID, THE MAPS, THEMSELVES,
% REPRESENT VOTING TRENDS.
% THEY DO NOT NECESSARILY
% REPRESENT THE PARTY OF THE
% LAWMAKER WHO HOLDS THAT
% DISTRICT.%THERE ARE A FEW EX
CEPTIONS IN% THE MAP WHERE, LET'S S
AY A
% DEMOCRAT HOLDS A DISTRICT THAT
% HAS A REPUBLICAN RATING, AND A
% REPUBLICAN HOLDS A DISTRICT WITH
% A DEMOCRATIC RATING.
% YEAH.
% THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT.
% >> AND SO ZOOMING IN A LITTLE
% BIT ON THE MAPS, ARE ANY
% DISTRICTS WHAT YOU CHARACTERIZE
% AS EQUAL, MEANING THEY ARE VERY
% COMPETITIVE, OR EVEN TEETERING
% TOWARDS EQUAL, SO THAT MEANS,
% YOU KNOW, A DEMOCRAT OR
% REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE COULD HAVE
% KIND OF AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY TO
% CAMPAIGN AND POTENTIALLY WIN
% THAT SEAT?
% >> YEAH.
% SO THIS IS A GREAT QUESTION AS
% WELL.
% THERE ARE VERY A FEW OF THEM
% BASED ON THE DATA BASE THAT
% WE'VE BUILT.
% THERE ARE FOUR DISTRICTS OF THE
% 99 IN THE ASSEMBLY THAT GET A
% TOSSUP RATING.
% TWO OF THEM ARE IN THE GREATER
% MILWAUKEE AREA IN THE SUBURBS%
WHERE WE SAW A HARSH BACKLASH TO
% FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP IN 2020,
% AND ONE OF THEM IS IN NORTHWEST
% WISCONSIN ALONG THE MINNESOTA
% BORDER, AND THE FOURTH IS THE
% GREATER LACROSSE AREA OUTSIDE
% THE CITY LIMITS.
% THOSE ARE THE FOUR DISTRICTS
% THAT GET TRIED AND TRUE TOSSUP
% RATINGS.
% THERE ARE SOME OTHER DISTRICTS
% THAT FIND THEMSELVES IN THAT
% PLUS 1.5, 1.6, PLUS 2 KIND OF
% RATING THAT MIGHT BE WOULD BE A
% LITTLE MORE COMPETITIVE.
% WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE STATE
% SENATE, NONE OF THE DISTRICTS
% GET A TOSSUP RATING BY OUR
% METRICS, BUT THAT BEING SAID,
% THERE ARE TWO, AT LEAST TWO
% DISTRICTS, WHERE IT GETS A
% DEMOCRATIC RATING, AND A
% REPUBLICAN HOLDS THE SEAT, BUT
% THERE'S ANOTHER ONE WHERE A
% REPUBLICAN GETS THE RATING, BUT
% A DEMOCRAT HOLDS THE SEAT.
% DOES BECAUSE IT IS A TOSSUP, IT
% DOESN'T MEAN THAT ONE PARTY
% CAN'T NECESSARILY WIN THE SEAT
% EVEN IF IT GOES AGAINST IT.
% IT GETS SUBSTANTIALLY HARDER,
% RIGHT, IF YOU'RE A DEMOCRAT
% RUNNING IN AN R-PLUS-1.9
% DISTRICT, THAT'S EASIER TO WIN
% THAN A DEMOCRAT RUNNING IN AN
% R-PLUS-12 DISTRICT, AND SAME
% COULD BE SAID VICE VERSA, RIGHT?
% THERE'S MANY DISTRICTS SKEWED
% VERY HEAVILY TOWARDS DEMOCRATS
% AND WOULD BE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE
% FOR A REPUBLICAN TO WIN OUT.
% >> SO THOSE DISTRICTS WHERE IT
% WAS FAVORING, SAY, REPUBLICAN,
% YET A DEMOCRAT WON THAT SEAT,
% THEY ARE REALLY BEATING THE ODDS
% OF JUST KIND OF THE GENERAL
% POLITICAL PERSUASION OF THE
% AREA, AND ESPECIALLY BASED ON
% PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND A
% GREATER TREND TOWARDS STRAIGHT
% TICKET VOTING MEANING IF SOMEONE
% VOTES FOR A DEMOCRATIC
% PRESIDENT, THEY ARE LIKELY TO
% VOTE DEMOCRAT ALL THE WAY DOWN.
% IT IS LESS COMMON FOR PEOPLE TO
% VOTE BOTH DEMOCRAT AND
% REPUBLICAN FOR LOCAL VERSUS
% FEDERAL RACES SO THE TREND OF
% LEANING IN HARDER TO A POLITICAL
% PARTY IS STRONGER THESE DAYS.
% WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER SIDE?
% WHICH DISTRICTS ARE REALLY
% HEAVILY WEIGHED TOWARDS
% REPUBLICANS OR DEMOCRATS?
% >> SO THIS IS ALSO A REALLY GOOD
% QUESTION.%I THINK THIS IS AC
TUALLY ONE OF
% THE MORE POWERFUL THINGS THE
% INDEX HIGHLIGHTS.
% IT SHOWS WHAT THEY VOTED FOR
% UNDER THE LAST DECADE IN THE
% CURRENT MAPS, AND I THINK YOU
% REALLY SEE IT KIND OF IN TWO
% FORMS, RIGHT?
% IN AND AROUND THE MADISON AREA,
% THERE'S, I THINK, EIGHT
% DISTRICTS THAT VOTE, ON AVERAGE,
% MORE THAN 15% MORE DEMOCRATIC
% THAN THE STATE AS A WHOLE,
% WHEREAS WHEN YOU FLIP IT AND
% CONVERSELY LOOK AT DISTRICTS
% FAVORING REPUBLICANS, VAST
% MAJORITY OF THOSE DISTRICTS ARE
% IN THE R-PLUS-2 TO R-PLUS-10 TO
% 12 AREA, AND YOU SEE THIS
% PACKING OF DEMOCRATIC VOTERS IN
% THE MADISON AND MILWAUKEE AREA
% TO JAM THEM IN A FEW DISTRICTS
% AS POSSIBLE.
% NOW, THERE IS SOME CRACKING,
% KIND OF OTHER ACCEPTED FORM OF
% GERRYMANDERING THAT PEOPLE TALK
% ABOUT.%WE SEE THAT IN PLACES
LIKE
% SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
% WE SEE THAT WITH THE DISTRICT
% LIKE ASSEMBLY SPEAKER ROBIN
% VOS'S.
% IT RUNS UP TO THE CITY OF RACI
% IN, E, WHICH DOES NOT ENCOMPASS
% IT AT ALL DELUDING THE
% DEMOCRATIC VOTER IN THE CITY OF
% RACINE BY STRETCHING MILES INTO
% WESTERN RACINE.
% SPEAKER VOS IS A SAFE SEAT WITH
% A RATING OF R-PLUS-9.
% THEY DO A GOOD JOB OF
% HIGHLIGHTING PACK PACKING%DE
MOCRATIC VOTERS, IN SOME
% CASES, CRACKING, AND OTHERS
% SHOWING THAT, YOU KNOW,
% REPUBLICANS DON'T REALLY HAVE A
% HUGE SKEW IN A LOT OF DISTRICTS
% IF THEY HAVE A CONSISTENT SKEW
% THAT IS JUST BIG ENOUGH TO MAKE
% IT HARD FOR DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE
% TO OVERCOME AGAINST THEM WHEN
% THEY ARE RUNNING.
% >> AND SO JUST A REMINDER, TO BE
% CLEAR, THIS INDEX FOR MAPS ARE
% FOR THE CURRENT LEGISLATIVE
% DISTRICTS AS THEY EXIST TODAY,
% NOT THE REDISTRICTING MAPS THAT
% ARE BEING PROPOSED RIGHT NOW.
% ON MONDAY, THE SENATE PASSED
% ALONG PARTY LINES THE REPUBLICAN
% DRAWN MAPS PROPOSAL, AND THE
% ASSEMBLY IS EXPECTED TO DO THE
% SAME TOMORROW.
% BOTH ARE VERY HEAVY REPUBLICAN
% MAJORITIES.
% CAN WE INFER ABOUT HOW MUCH THIS
% PARTISAN VOTER INDEX WITH
% TODAY'S CURRENT MAPS COULD ALIGN
% WITH PROPOSED MAPS AND HOW THOSE
% NEW DISTRICT PROPOSALS COULD BE
% SKEWED?
% >> YES.
% SO IT IS NOT PERFECT BECAUSE THE
% MAPS ARE NOT IDENTICAL, BUT WITH
% THAT BEING SAID, SPEAKER VOS AND
% SENATE MAJORITY LEADER TOLD US
% MANY TIMES IN PUBLIC HEARINGS
% AND, YOU KNOW, JOINT RESOLUTIONS
% THAT THE LEGISLATURE PASSED, THE
% MAPS THAT WE'VE -- AS WISCONSIN
% VOTED UNDER IN THE LAST TEN
% YEARS, THOSE WERE VERY MUCH THE
% FOUNDATION FOR THE MAPS THAT
% THAT LAWMAKER USED TO DRAW THE
% CURRENT PROPOSAL, BUT THEY WILL
% FINISH VOTING ON THAT TOMORROW
% IN THE LEGISLATURE.
% SOME THINGS DO SHIFT.
% THERE ARE INSTANCES IN INCUMBENT
% PAIRING OR WHERE THERE'S A NEW
% DISTRICT THAT MIGHT NOT HAVE AN
% INCUMBENT SO THERE'S SOME
% SHIFTS, BUT, YEAH, IT IS USEFUL
% IN SEEING THAT, YOU KNOW, IF
% THESE DISTRICTS ARE SO SKEWED
% NOW, AND THEY ARE THE FOUNDATION
% FOR THE PROPOSED NEW DISTRICTS,
% IT IS A FAIRLY SAFE ASSUMPTION
% NEW DISTRICTS WOULD NOT BE VERY
% COMPETITIVE.
% NOW, THERE'S BEEN MANY OTHER
% ANALYSIS THAT HAVE SHOWN THIS.
% THE PRINCETON GERRYMANDERING
% PROJECT, FOR EXAMPLE, DID
% INTERESTING WORK ABOUT THIS.
% THEY HAVE GIVEN THE MAPS PUT
% FORTH BY REPUBLICANS AN F-GRADE
% OVERALL, AND I THINK THEY GET A
% C IN COMPETITIVENESS, AND,
% BASICALLY, THEY HAVE COME TO THE
% CONCLUSION THAT PROPOSED MA'AMS
% ARE SOME -- PROPOSED MAPS ARE
% MOST EXTREME GERRYMANDERING
% POSSIBLE IF THEY WERE TO BE
% ENACTED.
% >> SO WHAT ABOUT THE MAPS THAT
% WERE DRAWN BY THE PEOPLE'S MAPS
% COMMISSION, WHICH IS A BODY
% CREATED BY DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR,
% TONY EVERS.
% ARE THEY ANY MORE COMPETITIVE?
% ARE THEY ANY MORE KIND OF
% FULFILLING WHAT THEY SAY AS
% BEING MORE FAIR MAPS?
% >> YES.
% SO THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION TOO.
% THE PEOPLE MAPS COMMISSIONS
% PROPOSAL IS -- IT IS
% INTERESTING.
% THERE HAVE BEEN SOME ISSUES WITH
% IT.
% IT'S BEEN CRITICIZED FOR MAYBE
% NOT ABIDING BY THE VOTING RIGHTS
% ACT BECAUSE THERE'S NOT ENOUGH
% MINORITY/MAJORITY DISTRICTS.
% IT IS ALSO INTERESTING,
% SOMETHING LIKE THE PRINCETON
% GERRYMANDERING PROJECT I WAS
% LOOKING AT BEFORE WE CAME ON,
% GIVES THE PEOPLE'S MAPS
% COMMISSION, LETTER GRADE OF A C
% FOR COMPETITIVENESS, BUT IT IS
% IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT
% THE MAPS WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY
% RESULT IN DEMOCRATS WINNING MORE
% SEATS IN THE LEGISLATURE.
% THE COMPETITIVENESS METRIC THEY
% USE, BY MY UNDERSTANDING OF IT,
% IS HOW COMPETITIVE WOULD EACH
% INDIVIDUAL RACE BE?
% IT GETS THE SAME GRADE AS THE
% REPUBLICAN PROPOSAL BECAUSE THE
% DISTRICTS, THE WAY THE PEOPLE'S
% MAPS COMMISSION HAS DRAWN THEM
% BEARS MORE DEMOCRATIC SEATS, BUT
% THE DEMOCRATIC SEAT WOULD NOT
% NECESSARILY BE COMPETITIVE
% RACES.
% IT'S NOT LIKE EVERY SINGLE
% DISTRICT IN WISCONSIN WOULD BE
% COIN TOSSED.
% THEY ALMOST CERTAINLY WOULD BE
% MORE COMPETITIVE IN THE SENSE
% THAT DEMOCRATS WOULD WIN MORE
% SEATS IN THE LEGISLATURE THAN
% THEY HAVE RIGHT NOW, BUT IT DOES
% NOT NECESSARILY MEAN EVERY RACE
% IN EVERY DISTRICT IS MORE
% COMPETITIVE THAN WHAT WE HAVE
% RIGHT NOW.
% >> JUST REALLY QUICK, WHY IS
% COMPETITIVENESS A GOOD THING?
% WHY IS THAT A DESIRABLE QUALITY
% FOR FOLKS, SAY, AT THE PRINCETON
% GERRYMANDERING PROJECT?%>> S
URE.
% THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION AS WELL.
% I THINK DEPENDING ON WHO YOU
% ASK, YOU WILL PROBABLY GET A
% DIFFERENT ANSWER.
% YOU KNOW, BASICALLY, RIGHT NOW,
% AND WE HAD TALKED ABOUT THIS
% BRIEFLY AS WELL, YOU KNOW,
% WISCONSIN IS A SWING STATE, AND
% SO THE LEGISLATURE IS VERY NOT
% REFLECTIVE OF THAT.
% ACCORDINGLY, YOU CAN SEE
% LAWMAKERS LEAN MORE AND MORE
% INTO THEIR BASE RATHER THAN
% HAVING TO KIND OF WALK THIS LINE
% AND TRY TO WORK BIPARTISANLY TO
% WIN RE-ELECTION IN
% COMPETITIVENESS.
% COMPETITIVENESS, IN THEORY,
% BREEDS MORE BIPARTISANSHIP.
% IF YOU'RE A LAWMAKER THAT CAN DO
% AND SAY WHATEVER YOU WANT,
% INTRODUCE WHATEVER LEGISLATION
% YOU WANT WITHOUT FEAR OF LOSING
% RE-ELECTION, YOU KNOW, THERE'S
% LITTLE ACCOUNTABILITY THERE.
% COMPETITIVE CAN BE GOOD BECAUSE
% IT, YOU KNOW, HOLDS PEOPLE
% ACCOUNTABLE MORE OFTEN.
% LAWMAKERS HAVE TO THINK MORE
% BEFORE THEY ACT IN ORDER TO WIN
% MORE VOTES, AND SO
% COMPETITIVENESS, FROM THAT
% MEASURE, IS INTERESTING.
% FOR THE PRINCETON GERRYMANDERING
% PROJECT, I THINK THAT, YOU KNOW,
% THEY --
% IT IS HEAVILY BASED IN
% STATISTICS.
% IN THEIR WORLD, THEY WANT TO SEE
% DISTRICTS AS CLOSE TO A 50/50
% TOSSUP AS THEY COULD.
% COMPETITIVENESS IS INTERESTING
% AND DEPENDS ON WHO YOU ASK AND
% YOU'LL GET A LOT OF DIFFERENT
% ANSWERS ABOUT IT.
% >> SO IN THAT SENSE, HOW EXACTLY
% IS WISCONSIN A SWING STATE, IF
% THERE ARE SO MANY REPUBLICAN
% SEATS THAT OUTNUMBER DEMOCRATS?
% WHY IS WISCONSIN ALWAYS SEEN AS
% A SWING STATE WHEN IT COMES TO
% PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS,
% STATEWIDE ELECTIONS?
% >> YEAH.
% SO THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION AS
% WELL.
% WISCONSIN'S A SWING STATE
% BECAUSE, LET'S BE HONEST, IT
% SWINGS AND HAS, YOU KNOW, 2016
% WAS A SHOCK TO A LOT OF PEOPLE
% WHEN PRESIDENT TRUMP CARRIED THE
% STATE.
% PRIOR TO THAT, YOU KNOW, A
% REPUBLICAN HAD NOT WON WISCONSIN
% SINCE THE '80s, BUT WE'VE SEEN
% A VERY FIERCE BATTLE BETWEEN
% REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS FOR
% STATEWIDE OFFICE.
% DEMOCRATS HAVE HAD SUCCESS IN
% RECENT STATEWIDE ELECTIONS, AND
% THOUGH THAT COULD EASILY SWING
% BACK AS WE SAW IN EARLY 2010,
% REPUBLICANS DOMINATED THINGS,
% AND SO THAT'S INTERESTING.
% HOW IS WISCONSIN A SWING STATE?
% I THINK THAT GERRYMANDER
% ACTUALLY HIGHLIGHTS HOW MUCH OF
% A SWING STATE WISCONSIN IS.
% DEMOCRATIC VOTERS, NO SECRET,
% ARE PACKED INTO URBAN CENTERS IN
% DANE COUNTY, MADISON, MILWAUKEE,
% AND WE SEE THEM OTHER PLACES
% TOO, AND THERE'S LITTLE POCKETS,
% LACROSSE, YOU KNOW, THE CITY OF
% GREEN BAY.
% IT IS INTERESTING.
% THE STATE AS A WHOLE, THE
% LEGISLATURE INHERENTLY, EXPERTS
% SAY, FAVOR REPUBLICANS BY TWO OR
% THREE PERCENTAGE POINTS IN
% REDISTRICTING, DRAWING THE MAPS,
% AND WISCONSIN IS A BIG RURAL
% SPACE, AND DEMOCRATIC VOTERS ARE
% FAIRLY CONCENTRATED, AND SO
% WISCONSIN IS A SWING STATE
% BECAUSE FROM A TOTAL STATEWIDE
% VOTE, WE SEE A VERY CLOSE 50/50
% SPLIT.
% THE LEGISLATURE, EVEN IF THE
% DISTRICTS WERE A TOSSUP IN EVERY
% DISTRICT, YOU'D PROBABLY STILL
% SEE SLIGHT SKEW FAVORABLE FOR
% REPUBLICANS JUST BASED ON THAT
% KIND OF RURAL GEOGRAPHY OF
% WISCONSIN.%>> SO THE COOK POL
ITICAL REPORT
% SAYS THAT, YOU KNOW, WHILE A LOT
% OF PEOPLE BLAME GERRYMANDERING
% FOR THE CAUSE OF HOW POLARIZED
% POLITICS HAVE BECOME, THEY SAY
% THEY'VE FOUND THAT VOTERS ARE
% ACTUALLY SELF-SORTING
% POLITICALLY, MEANING THAT WHERE
% THEY ARE KIND OF TENDS TO ALIGN
% WITH HOW THEY VOTE, AND IT IS
% NOT GERRYMANDERING.
% THAT'S THE PROBLEM, BUT IT IS
% NATURALLY HAPPENING.
% IS THAT A FAIR CHARACTERIZATION
% OF WHAT'S HAPPENING IN
% WISCONSIN?
% >> THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION.
% IT IS REALLY INTERESTING.
% I THINK THE COOK POLITICAL
% REPORT CERTAINLY MAKES A IS A
% LEAN -- SALINE POINT.
% LIKE MINDED PEOPLE LIKE TO LIVE
% AMONG LIKE MINDED PEOPLE.
% A NUMBER OF PSYCHOLOGISTS WOULD
% TELL YOU THAT.
% GERRYMANDERING COULD CONTRIBUTE
% TO THIS HYPERPARTISAN POLITICAL
% LANDSCAPE WE'VE SEEN, YOU KNOW,%
WHAT WE DISCUSSED EARLIER,
% RIGHT?
% IF I'M AN INCUMBENT THAT NEVER
% FACES A SERIOUS CHALLENGE FROM
% SOMEBODY OF THE OPPOSITE PARTY,
% YOU KNOW, I CAN REALLY LEAN INTO
% THE BASE.
% IN WISCONSIN, IT IS THAT
% CONSERVATIVE BASE, AND WE'VE
% SEEN THINGS THEY LEGISLATE ON
% RECENTLY THAT LEANS INTO THE
% CONSERVATIVE BASE AND THE KIND
% OF GROWING ELEMENT OF WHAT, YOU
% KNOW, PEOPLE CALL THE CULTURE
% WARS IN AND AROUND WISCONSIN SO
% I THINK THAT GERRYMANDERING CAN
% LEAD TO HYPERPARTISANSHIP
% BECAUSE IT, YOU KNOW, IT ALMOST
% CREATES AN ELEMENT OF LACK OF
% ACCOUNTABILITY FOR LAWMAKERS,
% AND THIS IS BOTH SIDES.
% DEMOCRATS IN MADISON ARE NOT
% GOING TO LOSE THEIR SEATS SO
% DEMOCRATS IN MADISON CAN GO TO
% THE LEGISLATURE, DO AND SAY WHAT
% THEY WANT LIKE A REPUBLICAN IN
% AN R-PLUS 15 RURAL DISTRICT IN
% NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS NOT
% GOING TO LOSE THEIR SEAT.
% THEY CAN DO THE SAME THING IN
% THE LEGISLATURE.
% THERE'S PARTISANSHIP BECAUSE OF
% THE LACK OF ACCOUNTABILITY
% BECAUSE YOU DON'T HAVE TO FEAR
% LOSING REELECTION, AND SO I
% THINK THE COOK MILLIE REPORT
% MAKES A GOOD POINT.
% YES, I MEAN, LIKE-MINDED PEOPLE
% LIKE TO LIVE ALONGSIDE
% LIKE-MINDED PEOPLE, HANG OUT
% WITH THEM, AND DO THOSE KINDS OF
% THINGS, BUT I THINK IT IS TOO
% MUCH AN OVERSIMPLIFICATION.
% >> NOW, GOVERNOR TONY EVERS IS
% EXPECTED TO VETO THE G.O.P.
% PROPOSAL AND HAS SAID THAT THE
% CURRENT MAPS SHOULD JUST BE
% THROWN OUT.
% DOES STARTING FROM SCRATCH MAKE
% DRAWING COMPETITIVE MAPS EVEN
% POSSIBLE GIVEN WISCONSIN'S
% DEMOGRAPHICS AND GEOGRAPHICS.
% HAVE PEOPLE, FOR EXAMPLE, FROM
% THE PRINCETON GERRYMANDERING
% PROJECT BEEN ABLE TO GIVE
% EXAMPLES OF HOW IT COULD WORK?
% >> YEAH.
% I MEAN, I THINK THAT WE CAN JUST
% LOOK BACK AT WISCONSIN'S HISTORY
% TO SEE HOW IT WOULD WORK.
% YOU KNOW, GOVERNOR EVERS WILL
% VETO THE BILL.
% HE SAID THAT SEVERAL TIMES.
% I TALKED TO HIM ABOUT IT.
% HE IS ADAMANT THE MOMENT THEY
% ARE PASSED AND ON HIS DESK,
% HE'LL USE THE VETO PEN TO STRIKE
% IT DOWN.
% THAT SETS UP THE STANDARD
% APPROACH OF REDISTRICTING IN
% WISCONSIN, WHICH IS A LAWSUIT
% AND COURT SETTLEMENT.
% NORMALLY, IT'S A FEDERAL COURT.
% THAT'S HOW IT WAS IN THE '80s
% AND '90s AND THE '00s, AND
% THEY TWEAKED MAPS IMPLEMENTED
% FOR THE PAST DECADE.
% THE STATE SUPREME COURT HANDLED
% THIS IN THE '60s AND MIGHT
% VERY WELL DO IT THIS TIME, BUT
% IT IS INTERESTING.
% GOING BACK TO THE POINT OF, YOU
% KNOW, CAN YOU DRAW FROM SCRATCH
% AND CREATE A COMPETITIVE
% ENVIRONMENT?%I LOOK AT THE 20
00s.
% A FEDERAL COURT DREW THE
% DISTRICTS THAT WISCONSIN VOTERS
% VOTED UNDER DURING THE 2000s,
% AND WE SAW A NUMBER OF MAJORITY
% CHANGES IN EITHER ONE OR BOTH
% CHAMBERS OF THE LEGISLATURE,
% RIGHT?%I MEAN, WE SAW IT RIGH
T BEFORE
% REPUBLICANS BECAME THE MAJORITY,
% KIND OF ON THE BACK OF THE TEA
% PARTY MOVEMENT AND BACKLASH TO
% THE FORMER PRESIDENT OBAMA AND
% PASSING THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT.
% THOSE MAPS, DEMOCRATS WERE THE
% MAJORITY.
% MAJORITY IN THE SENATE.
% MAJORITY IN THE ASSEMBLY.
% THERE WAS A DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR.
% IN THE NEXT ELECTION UNDER THE
% MORE COMPETITIVE MAPS,
% REPUBLICANS SWEPT THEM AWAY
% WINNING A HUGE MAJORITY IN THE
% SENATE AND ASSEMBLY.
% IT CAN BE DONE YOU CAN DRAW MORE
% COMPETITIVE MAPS.
% THE COURTS HAVE DONE IT BEFORE.
% I'M NOT AN EXPERT ON MAP
% DRAWING, BUT HISTORY SHOWS IT IS
% POSSIBLE TO DRAW IT UP FROM
% SCRATCH WHILE ALSO POSSIBLE
% TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THINGS
% SUBMITTED TO THE COURT.
% THAT'S WHY THE GOVERNOR IS
% ADAMANT ABOUT PEOPLE'S MAPS
% COMMISSION ANTICIPATING THIS
% GOES TO A LAWSUIT AND HAS
% SOMETHING TO PRESENT TO THE%
COURT TO WORK FROM.
% THE SAME THING WITH THE
% REPUBLICAN PLANS THAT WE SEE
% PASSED BY THE LEGISLATURE THIS
% WEEK.%>> AND WE LEARNED -- W
ELL,
% AGAIN, FROM CHARLES FRANKLIN'S
% MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL LAST WEEK,
% MAJORITY OF PEOPLE FAVOR
% NONPARTISAN BODY TO DRAW THE
% MAPS.
% REDISTRICTING OFFICIALS HAVE TO
% FOLLOW CERTAIN CRITERIA IN THE
% LAW.
% HOWEVER, THERE'S A LOT OF LEEWAY
% IN THE PARAMETERS, AND IT IS UP
% TO PERSON'S INTERPRETATION OF
% THE CRITERIA.
% OFTEN, AS WE SAID BEFORE, CAN
% SOMETIMES BE CONTRADICTORY.
% ARE THERE ANY CRITERIA SAYING
% THAT DISTRICTS SHOULD STRIVE TO
% BE COMPETITIVE, AND THAT THAT IS
% A DESIRABLE GOAL?
% >> RIGHT.
% SO COMPETITIVENESS, IN AND OF
% ITSELF, IS NOT A CRITERIA FOR
% DRAWING MAPS.
% SPEAKER VOS POINTED THIS OUT IN
% THE HEARING WHEN HE AND THE
% MAJORITY SPEAKER TESTIFIED YOU
% CAN CONSIDER THIS IN DRAWING
% MAPS.
% THEY CONSIDERED PARTISANSHIP
% DRAWING THE MAPS THAT ARE BEFORE
% THE LEGISLATURE RIGHT NOW.
% IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND,
% COMPETITIVENESS IS NOT A
% CRITERIA NECESSARILY THAT CAN BE
% USED OR DETERMINED TO USE TO
% DETERMINE WHAT BOUNDARIES SHOULD
% LOOK LIKE.
% YOU KNOW, THERE'S THE OBVIOUS
% ONES LAID OUT IN THE STATE
% CONSTITUTION, AND DISTRICTS NEED
% TO BE CONTINUOUS, AND AS MUCH AS
% POSSIBLE, KEEP COMMUNITIES'
% INTERESTS IN TACT, AND ALSO,
% THERE'S A CONCEPT FOLLOWING A
% FEDERAL COURT RULINGS GOING BACK
% TO THE '60s OF ONE PERSON, ONE
% VOTE.
% WHAT A COURT LOOKS LIKE AT
% DISTRICTS WHEN WE GET INTO A
% LAWSUIT, LIKE WE ARE GOING TO
% SEE IN THE COMING MONTHS, IS ARE
% THERE AN EQUAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE
% IN EACH DISTRICT?
% YOU KNOW, THERE COULD BE SMALL
% VARIATIONS IN THAT NUMBER.
% WHAT IF THE VARIATION IS TOO
% GREAT?%THE FEDERAL COURT WILL
ACTUALLY
% STEP IN AND TWEAK WHAT THE
% DISTRICTS LOOK LIKE TO ADJUST
% SOME OF THAT NUMBER.
% COMPETITIVENESS, NOT SOMETHING
% THAT COURTS WILL CONSIDER.
% IT IS KIND OF ONE PERSON, ONE
% VOTE MOMENT IS MUCH MORE -- IS
% WHAT FEDERAL JUDGES WILL FIND
% MUCH MORE INTRIGUING.
% NOW, THERE ARE WAYS TO DO IT,
% YOU KNOW, DEMOCRATIC VOTERS MADE
% A CLAIM IN THE THREE JUDGE PANEL
% RULED THE CURRENT MAPS
% UNCONSTITUTIONAL BEFORE THAT
% LAWSUIT WAS THROWN OUT ON A
% TECHNICALITY BY THE U.S. SUPREME
% COURT.
% THAT LAWSUIT, VOTERS ARGUED
% THAT, SURE, THERE'S EQUAL NUMBER
% OF PEOPLE IN EACH DISTRICT, BUT
% OUR VOTES ARE BEING WASTED.
% IT IS THAT -- IT IS THAT WE ARE
% NOT REPRESENTED IN THE WAY THAT
% WE WANT.
% THERE ARE INTERESTING LEGAL
% ARGUMENTS TO BE MADE, AND WE'LL
% SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT AND WHETHER
% THE STATE SUPREME COURT DECIDES
% TO TAKE THIS ON, AND WHETHER
% THEY PUNT IT AND LET A FEDERAL
% COURT SETTLE IT.
% THE NEXT A FEW MONTHS ARE GOING
% TO BE EQUALLY CHAOTIC WITH A LOT
% GOING ON BEHIND THE SCENES IN
% TERMS OF HOW WE GET TO THE FINAL
% LEGISLATIVE MAPS.
% >> ALL RIGHT.
% WE LEAVE IT THERE, JACK KELLY,
% FROM "THE CAP TIMES," THANK YOU
% VERY MUCH.%>> THANK YOU SO MU
CH FOR HAVING
% ME.
% >> FOR MORE FROM "HERE & NOW"
% AND PBS WISCONSIN, VISIT
% PBSWISCONSIN.ORG, AND THANK YOU%
SO MUCH FOR JOINING US ON "NOON
% WEDNESDAY."