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appreciate it.
>> Drum roll please. The

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first statewide poll
conducted after the

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Wisconsin primary election
finds a dead heat among

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registered voters in the
race for governor. Same

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holds true for the partizan
balance of the legislature.

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Marquette Law School poll
Director Charles Franklin

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is here with details and
insights. And thanks for

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being here, Charles.
>> Good to be here.

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>> So let's get right to it.
Democratic candidate David

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Crowley ties Republican Tom
Tiffany among registered

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voters at 44%, each with
12% undecided. But among

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likely voters, Crowley
comes in at 49% to

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Tiffany's 44%, with 7%
undecided. What is this gap

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between the registered and
the likely voters?

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>> It comes down to two
things. One is Democrats

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are a little bit more
likely to say they're sure

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they're going to vote in
November, so they get a

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little bump there. But
Democrats are also more

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loyal to their party's
candidate among likely

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voters than they are among
registered voters. So you

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put those two things
together, and that accounts

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for why it's five point
Steil a close race, but a

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five point lead with likely
while it's tied with

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registered.
>> Where do independent

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voters fall in their choice?
>> First of all, pretty

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undecided. So there's quite
a bit of undecided

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undecided independence.
They lean towards Crowley

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more than to Tiffany, but
with a between a 30 and a

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55% undecided rate. There
are a lot of undecided

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independents out there.
>> Why do you suppose there

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are a lot of undecided
independents?

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>> Familiarity with the
candidates is the number

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one answer. A little over a
third of all registered

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voters say they don't know
enough about David Crowley

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to say whether they have a
favorable or unfavorable

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view. Those with an opinion
are slightly more favorable

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than unfavorable, but less
than half, as many say.

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They don't know enough
about Tiffany to have a

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view, though they're
they're slightly more

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unfavorable than favorable.
So just as with the likely

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voters, you see a slight
edge towards Crowley among

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on favorability, but a lot
of room for voters to learn

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more about Crowley and the
campaigns to compete for,

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whether they learn good
things or bad things.

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>> Now, you also found the
Democrats hold an advantage

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in the number, saying, as
you said, they are likely

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to vote. But more
Republicans say they're

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very enthusiastic to vote.
Is that a hangover from the

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primary race?
>> It looks like it is. If

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you look at Hang Franco
Francesca Hong supporters,

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they are several points
less enthusiastic than are

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either Crowley supporters
or Mandela Barnes

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supporters. So we were in
the field starting the day

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after the primary. I think
it's kind of natural that

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if you supported Francesca
Hong, you might be a little

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less enthusiastic. After
she so narrowly lost the

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primary. But when we look
at how are those people

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voting, 98% of the Hong
voters are saying they're

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voting for Crowley. 99% of
the Crowley voters are

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voting for Crowley. So I
think we're getting amazing

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levels of party unity
within the Democrats, but a

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little bit of an enthusiasm
gap, mostly coming from

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disappointed Hong
supporters.

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legislature, the partizan
makeup, really Hughes to

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the same kinds of results
that you found in the

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governor's race.
>> Very much so. It's it's

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00:03:35,782 --> 00:03:38,719
a tie with registered
voters. It's a slight

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00:03:38,785 --> 00:03:41,955
Democratic edge, though, a
smaller one with likely

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voters. This is a statewide
look at if the election

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were held today, would you
vote for the Republican or

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Democrat for legislature?
You really need to dial

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down into the 4 or 5
competitive Senate seats,

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00:03:57,371 --> 00:04:01,708
the six or 7 or 8 Assembly
seats with a statewide

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00:04:02,276 --> 00:04:04,945
sample. We can't say
anything about those

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00:04:05,012 --> 00:04:07,214
individual races.
>> Except we could probably

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predict that it will all be
close.

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00:04:10,284 --> 00:04:12,653
>> It sure looks like it's
close. Boy, that's a

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headline for Wisconsin
politics, right?

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00:04:15,389 --> 00:04:18,492
>> So I also wanted to get
your take on fake polling

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00:04:18,559 --> 00:04:21,762
conducted by an outfit
called Median Strategies.

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00:04:21,828 --> 00:04:25,032
Now, they released a poll
in the Wisconsin primary in

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California and Nevada, as
you know, what was your

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reaction when it was
determined that poll was

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00:04:30,070 --> 00:04:33,807
entirely fabricated,
supposedly as a social

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00:04:33,874 --> 00:04:36,076
experiment?
>> It's pure and simple

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fraud. So this is a
challenge to the polling

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00:04:39,546 --> 00:04:42,082
profession, but it's a
challenge to the news media

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00:04:42,149 --> 00:04:45,986
and all of us that try to
interpret what's going on

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00:04:46,053 --> 00:04:48,989
in polling for the public.
I just don't think there's

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00:04:49,056 --> 00:04:53,393
a magic wand to make that
kind of fraud go away. When

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00:04:53,460 --> 00:04:56,063
anybody with a Twitter
account can publish

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00:04:56,129 --> 00:05:00,400
anything they want to claim
they found in a poll.

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00:05:00,467 --> 00:05:01,969
>> All right, we leave it
there. Charles Franklin,

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00:05:02,035 --> 00:05:03,804
thanks very much for your
poll.

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00:05:03,871 --> 00:05:06,106
>> Thank you.
>> Franklin's Marquette

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00:05:06,173 --> 00:05:11,078
survey also shows that 78%
survey also shows that 78%