1 00:00:00,601 --> 00:00:01,301 the war in Iran 2 00:00:01,368 --> 00:00:02,436 and its repercussions 3 00:00:02,503 --> 00:00:03,003 at home? 4 00:00:03,070 --> 00:00:03,704 I think it's having 5 00:00:03,770 --> 00:00:05,472 an impact in this respect. 6 00:00:05,539 --> 00:00:06,573 Gas prices are up 7 00:00:06,640 --> 00:00:07,808 whether it's a buck 8 00:00:07,875 --> 00:00:09,376 buck 50 9 00:00:09,443 --> 00:00:10,310 and people feel that. 10 00:00:10,377 --> 00:00:11,078 So 11 00:00:11,144 --> 00:00:12,246 the fundamental question that 12 00:00:12,312 --> 00:00:13,881 every voter has to answer 13 00:00:13,947 --> 00:00:14,481 when they go into 14 00:00:14,548 --> 00:00:15,115 the voting booth is 15 00:00:15,182 --> 00:00:15,816 what's in it for me 16 00:00:15,883 --> 00:00:17,351 if I vote for X or Y? 17 00:00:17,417 --> 00:00:18,452 And right now that's 18 00:00:18,519 --> 00:00:19,753 not great for Republicans. 19 00:00:19,820 --> 00:00:20,487 For Republicans to 20 00:00:20,554 --> 00:00:21,388 have a shot this fall 21 00:00:21,455 --> 00:00:23,123 gas needs to be at or below 22 00:00:23,190 --> 00:00:24,124 three bucks a gallon 23 00:00:24,191 --> 00:00:25,025 and if it's not 24 00:00:25,092 --> 00:00:26,193 it's going to be a tough cycle. 25 00:00:26,260 --> 00:00:27,995 Yeah, 33% gas prices 26 00:00:28,061 --> 00:00:29,129 have gone up since 27 00:00:29,196 --> 00:00:30,797 Trump's war of choice in Iran. 28 00:00:30,864 --> 00:00:33,166 If that somehow gets resolved 29 00:00:33,233 --> 00:00:34,401 and those gas prices 30 00:00:34,468 --> 00:00:35,369 come down and 31 00:00:35,435 --> 00:00:36,904 inflation comes down 32 00:00:36,970 --> 00:00:38,005 is it 33 00:00:38,071 --> 00:00:38,672 does it kind of 34 00:00:38,739 --> 00:00:39,439 revert to 35 00:00:39,506 --> 00:00:41,108 a regular cycle, then? 36 00:00:41,175 --> 00:00:41,942 No, because people are still 37 00:00:42,009 --> 00:00:42,676 losing their health care 38 00:00:42,743 --> 00:00:44,011 they're still seeing ICE 39 00:00:44,077 --> 00:00:45,445 you know 40 00:00:45,512 --> 00:00:48,048 the Gestapo in our streets 41 00:00:48,115 --> 00:00:49,750 killing Americans who do 42 00:00:49,816 --> 00:00:51,185 nothing more than protest. 43 00:00:51,251 --> 00:00:51,818 Like those things 44 00:00:51,885 --> 00:00:52,486 aren't going to stop. 45 00:00:52,553 --> 00:00:53,587 The cult of Trump 46 00:00:53,654 --> 00:00:54,655 within the Republican Party 47 00:00:54,721 --> 00:00:55,455 of elected officials 48 00:00:55,522 --> 00:00:57,558 specifically Derrick Van Orden 49 00:00:57,624 --> 00:00:58,425 and Tom Tiffany 50 00:00:58,492 --> 00:00:59,660 who both, as Bill 51 00:00:59,726 --> 00:01:01,161 correctly pointed out, lost the 52 00:01:01,228 --> 00:01:01,995 congressional district. 53 00:01:02,062 --> 00:01:03,063 I mean, Derrick Van Orden 54 00:01:03,130 --> 00:01:03,931 lost his district 55 00:01:03,997 --> 00:01:05,299 or Chris Taylor won 56 00:01:05,365 --> 00:01:06,200 Derrick Van Orden's district 57 00:01:06,266 --> 00:01:07,634 by 22 points. 58 00:01:07,701 --> 00:01:08,836 Eau Claire and La Crosse 59 00:01:08,902 --> 00:01:10,204 we're nearly 40%. 60 00:01:10,270 --> 00:01:11,138 It could. 61 00:01:11,205 --> 00:01:12,206 It could revert to a 62 00:01:12,272 --> 00:01:12,940 normal cycle. 63 00:01:13,006 --> 00:01:15,242 Before the war broke out 64 00:01:15,309 --> 00:01:16,410 in the Middle East 65 00:01:16,476 --> 00:01:17,578 the generic ballot was a 66 00:01:17,644 --> 00:01:18,946 couple points favorable 67 00:01:19,012 --> 00:01:20,047 towards Democrats. 68 00:01:20,113 --> 00:01:21,014 That's something that 69 00:01:21,081 --> 00:01:22,816 Republicans can and compete 70 00:01:22,883 --> 00:01:24,184 in and win in. 71 00:01:24,251 --> 00:01:25,552 Now it's five or six 72 00:01:25,619 --> 00:01:26,386 and in some polls 73 00:01:26,453 --> 00:01:27,721 it's eight points. 74 00:01:27,788 --> 00:01:28,989 That's a much tougher 75 00:01:29,056 --> 00:01:31,959 environment for Republicans.