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good economic tradeoffs
there that are worth

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thanks very much.
>> Great. Thank you.

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>> What kind of bellwether
were elections earlier this

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month in other states that
saw Republican candidates

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on the losing end? And how
do recent partisan fights

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over affordability of
everything from health care

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to groceries play into
outcomes in midterm

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elections? Next year, we
turn to Marquette

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University Law School poll
director Charles Franklin,

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out this week with his
latest national poll. And

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Charles, nice to see you.
>> Good to be here.

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>> So in terms of that
first question, what do you

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think of whether November
4th outcomes in other

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states are more than just
kind of a cyclical swing?

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>> I think they show us
where the country is right

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now, or at least where
those states were. It's

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true that it's not a
surprise that Democrats won

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those two states for the
governorship. But remember,

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Virginia elected a
Republican governor four

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years ago and is now
elected a Democrat by a

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large margin. Maybe more
important for here in

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Wisconsin, Democrats picked
up 13 seats in the Virginia

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House of delegates, going
from 51 seats to 64 seats.

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That was a remarkable shift.
And the problems we saw

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there on inflation, on the
economy are the same things

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we're seeing in national
polling.

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>> So going into your
national polling in 2026

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congressional elections,
you found that among likely

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voters, 53% of respondents
would vote for Democrats,

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with 44% voting for
Republicans. Does that

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result surprise you?
>> It's a large result.

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That's a nine point gap.
That's very substantial.

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Interestingly, with
five point gap, a little

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bit smaller. The difference
between those is Democrats

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now are more likely to say
they're certain they're

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going to vote in the fall
by about seven points more

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likely in this national
poll. So you've got both

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the preference for
Democrats and the

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motivation to turn out. And
those two things, together

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with the likely vote
numbers, drives up that

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Democratic margin quite a
bit.

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>> So one result that was
the reason for the

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government shutdown. In
this poll, you found 70% of

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respondents favor extending
the ACA tax credits. How

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big of a driver do you
think that issue will be in

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the midterms?
>> I think it could grow. I

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think the fact that people
have just begun to see what

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they're insurance costs
will be under the ACA for

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next year. If they're
buying insurance on the

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marketplace. Also, for the
folks that are affected by

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those tax credits going
away, some of their

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increases are quite large.
We shouldn't exaggerate how

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many people are affected,
but it's a significant

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number that are.
Republicans are really

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going to have to deal with
this in the Congress, with

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or without Democratic
agreement. But what are

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they doing for their party?
And does this issue build

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over the fall into the
election, or does it kind

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of Peter out? We don't know
that yet.

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rating in your poll, in
this national poll, he sits

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at 14 points underwater
with 43% approving of his

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job performance, in 57%
disapproving. But the wow

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number really here is that
he's 50 points underwater

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with independents with 25%
approval and 75%

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disapproval. What do you
make of that?

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>> Well, that's a huge,
huge problem politically

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and it's politically
problem for the president,

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but also for Republicans
going into the midterms

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because you can't just win
on your own party base. You

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need to pick up at least a
good share of those 14 or

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15% of independents in the
country. And these are

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historically pretty abysmal
numbers for any president

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with independents at this
point. Maybe it'll turn

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around. He's still strong
with Republicans, 85%

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approval with them and 5%
with Democrats. But

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independents are an
important swing vote. And I

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think every member of
Congress or legislator that

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sits in a district that's a
close competitive district,

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especially, has to know
that the independent vote

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in those districts could
shift their margin 3 or 4

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points one way or the other.
That could be the

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difference between winning
and losing.

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>> So as to that,
transposing these national

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poll results to Wisconsin
elections, what kind of

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00:04:27,201 --> 00:04:29,469
warning signs do you see
for Republicans in upcoming

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00:04:29,536 --> 00:04:32,172
races, for Congress,
legislature?

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00:04:32,239 --> 00:04:35,275
>> Yeah, I think that what
we saw in Virginia to come

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back to a real election,
not just a poll, is that we

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saw Republican incumbents
lose seats in Virginia that

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Trump had won by six points
last time. So our

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00:04:48,088 --> 00:04:51,124
competitive states here,
sorry, districts,

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00:04:51,191 --> 00:04:55,162
legislative districts here
are within that kind of

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margin. Now I'm not for a
minute saying that we will

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00:04:58,098 --> 00:05:01,668
see the same swing here
that we saw in Virginia.

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But Virginia, certainly a
test case to show that that

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00:05:06,340 --> 00:05:10,244
4 or 5 six point swing,
even in an incumbent

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district held by a
Republican is at risk this