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>> A whole new spate of
tariffs went into effect

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this week. Job numbers were
weaker than expected this

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summer, and business
analysts say consumers are

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tightening their belts. How
do economic trends

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nationally translate to how
Wisconsin is faring now and

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going forward? We asked
Steven Deller, UW-Madison

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professor of agricultural
and applied economics, and

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thanks for being here.
>> Thank you.

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>> So when you look at the
broad economic landscape,

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what are you seeing.
>> From a Wisconsin

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perspective? And I think
this is kind of generally

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true across the country is a
lot of businesses have gone

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into a wait and see mode.
That's why the job numbers

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are weak. We're not seeing
an increase in unemployment

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rates. We're seeing a
decline in the number of

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hires, primarily because
businesses are unsure what's

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happening. And when we're
unsure, we kind of go into a

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lockdown mode. We go into a
holding pattern, if you

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will. So I think that's why
the job numbers are as weak

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as they are, and it's going
to take a while for this to

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kind of play out.
>> And so this is this

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mostly around tariffs or
interest rates or inflation

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or all of it.
>> I think it's all of it. I

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think the major concern is
that we're not sure exactly

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what the policies are going
to be. The tariffs are on.

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The tariffs are off. They're
back on again. They're off

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again. And it's that
uncertainty businesses I

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mean there's kind of we know
what we know. We know what

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we don't know. We can make
educated guesses. And then

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what's going on. That's
uncertainty. And when we're

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in a situation like that,
that's when people just

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hunker down. They go into
wait and see mode. And, you

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know, in terms of like
consumers, it is kind of

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anticipatory shopping. It is
kind of like, okay, now

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let's go into a wait and see
mode. And it's just we don't

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know what's happening.
>> So you said that the

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trends kind of are the same
nationally and in Wisconsin.

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But is there anything
specific to Wisconsin that

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we should be watching. For?
>> Wisconsin? Our highs, our

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growth periods are not as
strong as the national

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averages. Our lows are not
as weak as the national

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averages. So Wisconsin is
kind of steady, if you will.

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You have to go back to the
farm crisis of the early

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1980s, before Wisconsin kind
of broke that trend. So I

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think Wisconsin's going to
be kind of in a stable mode

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for a little while.
>> And yet are the things

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that make Wisconsin more or
less vulnerable to a

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downturn?
>> Not necessarily. One of

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the reasons is because our
economy is pretty

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diversified. We don't we're
not heavily dependent upon

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one particular industry. I
mean, you can point to some

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of the big ones, like
agriculture, food

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recreation. So there's some
industries that maybe might

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be susceptible. But in
general, Wisconsin's a

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pretty diversified economy.
>> So all of this said, are

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you seeing indications of a
slowdown nationally and in

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Wisconsin?
>> Yes. And I think that's

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what the job numbers are
saying. And in talking with

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businesses around the state,
and again, I tend to talk to

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the smaller businesses,
which tends to dominate most

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of Wisconsin. They're just
in a again, a wait and see

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mode. They're they're
delaying expansion plans.

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They're not going into
shutdown mode. And one of

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the reasons they're not
going into shutdown mode is

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because they have such a
difficult time hiring labor.

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Wisconsin has been facing a
structural labor shortage

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for years, long before
Covid, and particularly

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coming out of Covid and
businesses. Remember that

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difficulty of hiring people,
so they're really hesitant

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to lay people off because
they don't want to go

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through that again. So
again, they're in that wait

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and see mode.
>> And so you're looking at

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kind of a business activity
as a bellwether. Are there

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others?
>> Yes. One is consumer

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expenditures. One of the
things is we saw an increase

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in consumer expenditure
after the announcement of

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the tariffs. And the reason
for that is people were

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thinking, oh, I'll buy it
now. I'll buy it before the

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tariffs hit. So there was
kind of a spike in spending

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from consumers. Well that
kind of spike has you know

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those purchases have played
out now. And now they're

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going into a wait and see
mode. So I think if we start

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to see consumer expenditures
slow down much more than

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they already have, then
that's a warning sign. The

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other thing is we're seeing
the housing market start to

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slow down, and there's other
factors going on there. But

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again, I think it's that
reflection of just I'm going

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to delay making any major
purchases because I'm not

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sure what's going to happen.
sure what's going to happen.