1 00:00:08,275 --> 00:00:11,778 PBS Wisconsin original production. 2 00:00:11,845 --> 00:00:15,282 >> Is online sports betting coming to Wisconsin and do 3 00:00:15,349 --> 00:00:19,686 fans want it? Plus, a look at prospects for deer 4 00:00:20,387 --> 00:00:24,291 hunters with the start of the season. I'm Frederica 5 00:00:24,358 --> 00:00:27,694 Freyberg tonight I'm here. And now we hear about how 6 00:00:27,761 --> 00:00:31,098 state lawmakers propose, then quickly pulled back on 7 00:00:31,164 --> 00:00:34,835 legislation to legalize online sports betting in 8 00:00:34,902 --> 00:00:37,404 Wisconsin. Then what's the real cost 9 00:00:37,471 --> 00:00:41,141 of marketplace plans? A Wisconsin pollster explores 10 00:00:41,208 --> 00:00:44,111 voter temperament ahead of next year's midterm 11 00:00:44,178 --> 00:00:47,748 elections, and the annual deer hunting season kicks 12 00:00:47,814 --> 00:00:51,418 off this weekend. We check in on what's in store. It's 13 00:00:51,485 --> 00:00:53,820 "Here& Now" for November 21st. 14 00:00:53,887 --> 00:00:56,490 [MUSIC] >> Funding for Here and Now 15 00:00:56,557 --> 00:00:59,493 is provided by the Focus Fund for Journalism and 16 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:04,364 Friends of PBS Wisconsin. >> At the state Capitol, a 17 00:01:12,573 --> 00:01:15,108 bipartisan legislative bill to allow online sports 18 00:01:15,175 --> 00:01:19,413 betting in Wisconsin that was on the fast track for a 19 00:01:19,479 --> 00:01:22,616 vote was pulled from this week's calendar. Its future 20 00:01:22,683 --> 00:01:25,118 is uncertain, but the legislation would have 21 00:01:25,185 --> 00:01:27,888 allowed the online betting if it originated from 22 00:01:27,955 --> 00:01:31,458 servers in tribal casinos in the state because under 23 00:01:31,525 --> 00:01:35,529 the Wisconsin Constitution, most gambling is only legal 24 00:01:35,596 --> 00:01:38,599 on tribal property. The idea was for the state to 25 00:01:38,665 --> 00:01:42,503 regulate and cash in on the revenue generated from the 26 00:01:42,569 --> 00:01:45,939 explosion of online sports betting, as other states 27 00:01:46,006 --> 00:01:49,209 have done. Researcher at the Wisconsin Policy Forum, 28 00:01:49,276 --> 00:01:51,211 Mark Sommerhauser, did a deep dive into online 29 00:01:51,278 --> 00:01:53,480 sports betting, and he joins us now. And thanks 30 00:01:53,547 --> 00:01:56,283 very much for being here. >> It's good to be with you. 31 00:01:56,350 --> 00:01:59,052 >> So how surprised were you that this otherwise 32 00:01:59,119 --> 00:02:01,088 fast tracked bill just got pulled? 33 00:02:01,154 --> 00:02:03,724 >> Yeah. So it was an interesting development. It 34 00:02:03,790 --> 00:02:06,126 was also interesting to see how the legislation had 35 00:02:06,193 --> 00:02:08,495 been fast tracked fairly quickly in, in the weeks 36 00:02:08,562 --> 00:02:12,266 leading up to this last week. And so, you know, 37 00:02:12,332 --> 00:02:14,301 perhaps, you know, the speed with which the bill 38 00:02:14,368 --> 00:02:17,271 had come forward. There may have been a desire among 39 00:02:17,337 --> 00:02:19,439 some lawmakers and some stakeholders to kind of 40 00:02:19,506 --> 00:02:22,910 take a step back and, you know, consider some of 41 00:02:22,976 --> 00:02:24,444 these issues more fully. >> So what kind of revenue 42 00:02:24,511 --> 00:02:28,315 could the state realize if it legalized and regulated 43 00:02:28,382 --> 00:02:30,617 >> So that's a great question. I have actually 44 00:02:30,684 --> 00:02:34,721 not seen any projections as of yet, probably in part 45 00:02:34,788 --> 00:02:36,223 because the legislation would just be the first in 46 00:02:36,290 --> 00:02:39,326 sort of a two step process here in Wisconsin. So even 47 00:02:39,393 --> 00:02:43,697 if this even if this legislation were to pass be 48 00:02:43,764 --> 00:02:45,098 governor, there would still be an additional step where 49 00:02:45,165 --> 00:02:47,301 the state would need to renegotiate its compacts 50 00:02:47,367 --> 00:02:49,536 with the tribal nations here in Wisconsin. So that 51 00:02:49,603 --> 00:02:52,306 would kind of actually be the final threshold to 52 00:02:52,372 --> 00:02:55,742 cross before you could have legal online sports betting. 53 00:02:55,809 --> 00:02:59,146 What we know from our research is that we have 54 00:02:59,213 --> 00:03:02,249 looked at some other states that have legalized online 55 00:03:02,316 --> 00:03:05,152 sports betting. As you alluded, there's been 56 00:03:05,219 --> 00:03:07,688 dozens and dozens of states that have done that just in 57 00:03:07,754 --> 00:03:10,824 the last few years. And they have in some cases 58 00:03:10,891 --> 00:03:13,227 seen quite large, you know, infusions of revenue. Of 59 00:03:13,293 --> 00:03:17,064 course, a lot of it depends on how the extent to which 60 00:03:17,130 --> 00:03:20,601 it's taxed. And we see from state to state, there are 61 00:03:20,667 --> 00:03:24,538 huge variations in that, you know, from 5% to 50% 62 00:03:24,605 --> 00:03:28,308 taxes. So so the rate differs hugely in states 63 00:03:28,375 --> 00:03:31,612 that have a high tax rate. And in larger states it can 64 00:03:31,678 --> 00:03:34,448 be on the order of hundreds of millions of dollars in 65 00:03:34,515 --> 00:03:36,450 tax revenue a year. Again, that's on the very high end, 66 00:03:36,517 --> 00:03:39,219 and that's with a very high tax rate. So that's not 67 00:03:39,286 --> 00:03:41,655 necessarily something that could be extrapolated to 68 00:03:41,722 --> 00:03:43,924 Wisconsin, but it does give you a sense of what what 69 00:03:43,991 --> 00:03:46,527 some states can. >> As we described right 70 00:03:46,593 --> 00:03:49,096 now, people in Wisconsin can only place bets online 71 00:03:49,162 --> 00:03:52,399 legally while physically on site at a at a tribal 72 00:03:52,466 --> 00:03:55,102 casino. How unusual is this across the country, that 73 00:03:55,169 --> 00:03:58,172 kind of restriction? >> It's fairly unusual. I 74 00:03:58,238 --> 00:04:00,574 think there's only 1 or 2 other states presently that 75 00:04:00,641 --> 00:04:04,645 have a set up quite like that, in part because so 76 00:04:04,711 --> 00:04:08,182 many states have that have some form of legal gambling, 77 00:04:08,248 --> 00:04:11,185 have taken the step already of legalizing the online 78 00:04:11,251 --> 00:04:14,354 sports betting. And so Wisconsin is fairly unusual 79 00:04:14,421 --> 00:04:18,358 in that we permit it legally, but only in this 80 00:04:18,425 --> 00:04:21,595 in-person setting right now at the tribal casinos. 81 00:04:21,662 --> 00:04:24,698 >> So stepping back to your larger research, describe 82 00:04:24,765 --> 00:04:27,167 kind of the explosion of online betting that we've 83 00:04:27,234 --> 00:04:30,103 seen. >> Yeah. So the really big 84 00:04:30,170 --> 00:04:33,040 trigger point for that was the supreme US Supreme 85 00:04:33,106 --> 00:04:36,243 Court ruling in 2018. And what that did is it 86 00:04:36,310 --> 00:04:39,246 essentially paved the way for states to it struck 87 00:04:39,313 --> 00:04:43,116 down a law that previously had barred most states 88 00:04:43,183 --> 00:04:47,154 outside of Nevada from legalizing sports gambling. 89 00:04:47,221 --> 00:04:51,425 And what we saw was a very, you know, swift reaction to 90 00:04:51,491 --> 00:04:54,394 that Supreme Court ruling. And we are now, at last 91 00:04:54,461 --> 00:04:57,297 count, I believe, at 39 states that have some form 92 00:04:57,364 --> 00:05:02,102 of of legalized sports betting. Nearly all of them 93 00:05:02,169 --> 00:05:05,272 permit online sports betting. And so that has 94 00:05:05,339 --> 00:05:08,375 brought about a really rapid shift in this whole 95 00:05:08,442 --> 00:05:10,410 landscape just since 2018. >> And what are the numbers 96 00:05:10,477 --> 00:05:13,547 look like, you know, from maybe five years ago or ten 97 00:05:13,614 --> 00:05:16,216 years ago or something to today in terms of the 98 00:05:16,283 --> 00:05:18,852 amount of money being spent on these pets. 99 00:05:18,919 --> 00:05:21,355 >> Right. >> So yeah, we've seen 100 00:05:21,421 --> 00:05:24,258 hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue 101 00:05:24,324 --> 00:05:27,094 increases in terms of the total amount being gambled. 102 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:30,464 And, you know, again, you know, prior to the Supreme 103 00:05:30,531 --> 00:05:32,299 Court ruling, Nevada was really the only state at a 104 00:05:32,366 --> 00:05:34,535 statewide level that was permitting this. Now we're 105 00:05:34,601 --> 00:05:37,137 up to almost 40 states that are permitting it. And 106 00:05:37,204 --> 00:05:40,541 there are more, as in here in Wisconsin, that are 107 00:05:40,607 --> 00:05:44,378 considering it. So it's pretty staggering the scale 108 00:05:44,444 --> 00:05:47,214 of how quickly that's happening. 109 00:05:47,281 --> 00:05:49,249 are betting not just kind of on the outcome of the 110 00:05:49,316 --> 00:05:52,319 games, but on like individual plays within the 111 00:05:52,386 --> 00:05:55,122 games. And so it's it's super popular and there's 112 00:05:55,189 --> 00:05:58,358 always something to kind of bet on. But what are the 113 00:05:58,425 --> 00:06:00,027 downsides to this according to your research. 114 00:06:00,093 --> 00:06:02,896 >> Yeah. So it's interesting because outside 115 00:06:02,963 --> 00:06:06,266 of Nevada, it's only recently that, you know, 116 00:06:06,333 --> 00:06:09,736 we've had legal sports betting. And so it's only 117 00:06:09,803 --> 00:06:13,006 in these 49 other states, only fairly recent 118 00:06:13,073 --> 00:06:15,275 development, that researchers have been able 119 00:06:15,342 --> 00:06:18,278 to study at a large scale. So we're actually seeing a 120 00:06:18,345 --> 00:06:20,414 lot of really interesting research coming in just 121 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:24,284 over the past couple of years where they started 122 00:06:24,351 --> 00:06:26,420 studying this maybe three or 4 or 5 years ago, and 123 00:06:26,486 --> 00:06:29,790 are just starting to get to the point where they can 124 00:06:29,857 --> 00:06:32,092 draw some conclusions. And those conclusions are mixed, 125 00:06:32,159 --> 00:06:34,928 but I would say definitely contain, you know, some 126 00:06:34,995 --> 00:06:37,497 areas of concern. We have seen higher rates of 127 00:06:37,564 --> 00:06:41,068 bankruptcy, of delinquency in, in car loans and other 128 00:06:41,134 --> 00:06:45,472 forms of loans and debt, and in states that have 129 00:06:46,139 --> 00:06:48,742 legalized sports betting relative to states that 130 00:06:48,809 --> 00:06:51,178 have not. And interestingly, at least one paper that we 131 00:06:51,245 --> 00:06:54,448 read that I think came out last year was even able to 132 00:06:54,515 --> 00:06:57,551 take that a step further and find a higher rates of 133 00:06:57,618 --> 00:07:00,320 some of these financial sort of stressors within 134 00:07:00,387 --> 00:07:03,257 households, within states that have legalized online 135 00:07:03,323 --> 00:07:06,527 sports betting. So that's just one study again. But 136 00:07:06,593 --> 00:07:09,129 there's more of this research coming in kind of 137 00:07:09,196 --> 00:07:12,032 by the month here. And it does raise some areas of 138 00:07:12,099 --> 00:07:16,970 concern in terms of the impact to households and 139 00:07:17,037 --> 00:07:20,374 household finances, that sort of large scale legal 140 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:22,109 sports betting can potentially be associated. 141 00:07:22,176 --> 00:07:25,679 >> With. >> And not even speaking of 142 00:07:25,746 --> 00:07:30,384 kind of the gambling potentially trigger in some. 143 00:07:30,450 --> 00:07:33,487 Do you expect this move to legalize it in Wisconsin 144 00:07:33,554 --> 00:07:36,423 will die or be revived somehow, possibly through 145 00:07:36,490 --> 00:07:38,392 the courts? >> I would expect that the 146 00:07:38,458 --> 00:07:40,260 discussion. >> Is far from finished. I 147 00:07:40,327 --> 00:07:43,497 would expect that there's going to be a lot more 148 00:07:43,564 --> 00:07:45,265 discussion, both among the stakeholders, the tribes, 149 00:07:45,332 --> 00:07:48,001 and some of the other stakeholders, because 150 00:07:48,068 --> 00:07:50,671 everybody kind of sees where the national 151 00:07:50,737 --> 00:07:55,375 landscape is going. But, you know, I would not dare 152 00:07:55,442 --> 00:07:58,312 to make a prediction as to how it's going to turn out. 153 00:07:58,378 --> 00:08:01,415 But what we see is that our our neighboring states have 154 00:08:01,481 --> 00:08:03,951 legalized this in some form, so many other states across 155 00:08:04,017 --> 00:08:07,187 the country. And so I think it's just going to continue 156 00:08:07,254 --> 00:08:10,257 to be a really hot topic going forward. 157 00:08:10,324 --> 00:08:12,659 Sommerhauser, thanks very much. 158 00:08:12,726 --> 00:08:15,996 >> The whole government shutdown was over extending 159 00:08:16,063 --> 00:08:19,366 enhanced tax credits for Affordable Care Act 160 00:08:19,433 --> 00:08:22,302 policies, with Democrats warning of big increases in 161 00:08:22,369 --> 00:08:24,705 people's monthly premiums come January if they're not 162 00:08:24,771 --> 00:08:27,975 kept in place. Aside from those extra subsidies going 163 00:08:28,041 --> 00:08:30,777 away, why are marketplace plans proving more 164 00:08:30,844 --> 00:08:34,014 expensive? And what of Republican calls to do away 165 00:08:34,081 --> 00:08:37,684 with the ACA altogether? In response, we asked 166 00:08:37,751 --> 00:08:41,221 Wisconsin School of and Insurance Justin Sydnor. 167 00:08:41,288 --> 00:08:43,257 And thanks very much for being here. 168 00:08:43,323 --> 00:08:46,360 >> Thanks for having me. >> So is it in dispute that 169 00:08:46,426 --> 00:08:51,131 ACA premiums could more than double without the 170 00:08:51,198 --> 00:08:53,000 extension of the enhanced tax credits? 171 00:08:53,066 --> 00:08:56,203 >> No. uncertainty about that. You 172 00:08:56,270 --> 00:08:59,540 know, it's basically pretty straightforward, simple 173 00:08:59,606 --> 00:09:02,643 math. The way the tax credits work is that 174 00:09:02,709 --> 00:09:06,046 they're tied to a share of the percent of your income. 175 00:09:06,113 --> 00:09:08,982 And the enhanced tax credits increased or 176 00:09:09,049 --> 00:09:11,385 decreased the share you would have to pay an 177 00:09:11,451 --> 00:09:14,154 increase the income range for people who are eligible. 178 00:09:14,221 --> 00:09:19,259 So they'll definitely go up. The share that you're 179 00:09:19,326 --> 00:09:23,530 up. If those subsidies expire. How much? Depends a 180 00:09:23,597 --> 00:09:26,400 lot on your income level. And in particular, we could 181 00:09:26,466 --> 00:09:29,236 maybe think about a nice example here. So take a 50 182 00:09:29,303 --> 00:09:32,039 year old couple so married couple in Wisconsin, 50 183 00:09:32,105 --> 00:09:35,142 years old, no children. They're facing a total 184 00:09:35,209 --> 00:09:39,479 premium of about $18,000 for a middle middle plan 185 00:09:39,546 --> 00:09:43,317 this year in the ACA marketplace in Wisconsin. 186 00:09:43,383 --> 00:09:47,588 If they had the enhanced tax credits and they made 187 00:09:47,654 --> 00:09:51,358 $85,000 or more a year, that's 400% of the federal 188 00:09:51,425 --> 00:09:54,194 poverty line. They'd get about $11,000 subsidy, and 189 00:09:54,261 --> 00:09:58,098 they'd have to pay about $7,000 themselves. So if 190 00:09:58,165 --> 00:10:00,767 those subsidies expire, they're on the hook for 191 00:10:00,834 --> 00:10:03,070 that whole 18,000. So that's an $11,000 increase 192 00:10:03,136 --> 00:10:06,740 now for people who have lower incomes, the 193 00:10:06,807 --> 00:10:09,376 subsidies protect them more, even if the enhanced 194 00:10:09,443 --> 00:10:12,179 subsidies expire. So let's take that same family and 195 00:10:12,246 --> 00:10:15,516 move them way down the income spectrum. Make them 196 00:10:15,582 --> 00:10:18,418 at 25,000. Now they're just above the poverty line in 197 00:10:18,485 --> 00:10:21,355 the enhanced subsidies. They don't pay anything for 198 00:10:21,421 --> 00:10:24,525 that middle tier plan. They're paying zero. But 199 00:10:24,591 --> 00:10:28,328 without them they're paying about $500 a year. So about 200 00:10:28,395 --> 00:10:31,231 a $500 increase. So that range, you know, in the 201 00:10:31,298 --> 00:10:34,501 ballpark some it's 500 a year, some people it's 202 00:10:34,568 --> 00:10:37,337 $10,000 or more a year. >> You know, there's so 203 00:10:37,404 --> 00:10:39,072 much political consternation around not 204 00:10:39,139 --> 00:10:43,710 just the tax credits but the ACA altogether is the 205 00:10:45,412 --> 00:10:48,048 Affordable Care Act in a freefall? 206 00:10:48,115 --> 00:10:50,384 >> No, I don't think there's any reason to think 207 00:10:50,450 --> 00:10:53,287 of it as being in a freefall. It's actually 208 00:10:53,353 --> 00:10:56,723 been quite stable. So if you look at the cost of 209 00:10:56,790 --> 00:10:59,393 plans for ACA marketplace plans, both in Wisconsin 210 00:10:59,459 --> 00:11:03,230 but also nationally over the last five years or so, 211 00:11:03,297 --> 00:11:05,098 those premiums have actually been very stable. 212 00:11:05,165 --> 00:11:08,769 And in fact, they haven't risen in the same way that 213 00:11:08,836 --> 00:11:10,137 the employer sponsored premiums that we've seen 214 00:11:10,204 --> 00:11:12,773 for, you know, that most people get through their 215 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:15,108 employers have those premiums have been up about 216 00:11:15,175 --> 00:11:19,313 25% over the last five years. ACA premiums are 217 00:11:19,379 --> 00:11:22,015 pretty stable. >> What's driving that 25% 218 00:11:22,082 --> 00:11:25,252 increase? overall in the US our 219 00:11:25,319 --> 00:11:28,155 healthcare costs are just high. So we pay about 220 00:11:28,222 --> 00:11:32,326 $15,000 a person per year in health care costs across 221 00:11:32,392 --> 00:11:35,262 the entire country. You know. And those costs 222 00:11:35,329 --> 00:11:38,131 reflect a lot of things. They reflect our market 223 00:11:38,198 --> 00:11:40,467 based system. So our costs are about twice what they 224 00:11:40,534 --> 00:11:44,238 are in, say, Europe or Canada. And, you know, 225 00:11:44,304 --> 00:11:46,373 that's partly a trade off. We have a market based 226 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:49,443 system. So we have a lot of innovation. We have good 227 00:11:49,510 --> 00:11:51,245 access, we have the best technology. So if you get 228 00:11:51,311 --> 00:11:54,414 very sick, you probably want to be here. On the 229 00:11:54,481 --> 00:11:57,518 other hand, it means that our prices are set by 230 00:11:57,584 --> 00:12:01,388 competitive forces and the down prices that well 231 00:12:01,455 --> 00:12:04,224 through those competitive about why are they 232 00:12:04,291 --> 00:12:07,327 increasing, why are they steady rise over time. You 233 00:12:07,394 --> 00:12:10,130 know there's a confluence of factors. So we have an 234 00:12:10,197 --> 00:12:13,000 aging population. So we have sort of more demand 235 00:12:13,066 --> 00:12:15,469 for health care and the expansion of health care 236 00:12:15,536 --> 00:12:18,505 services. How many nurses you can bring on, how many 237 00:12:18,572 --> 00:12:20,707 doctors you train. Hospital systems doesn't always keep 238 00:12:20,774 --> 00:12:24,545 up with that rising demand. Well, we've also seen a big 239 00:12:24,611 --> 00:12:27,381 explosion of newer pharmaceutical drugs. You 240 00:12:27,447 --> 00:12:31,852 know, innovations in genetics have allowed us to 241 00:12:31,919 --> 00:12:35,255 treat rare diseases. Those Now, of course, they're 242 00:12:35,322 --> 00:12:37,491 also highly beneficial. If you have a rare disease, 243 00:12:37,558 --> 00:12:40,127 you're really happy that there's a new drug for it. 244 00:12:40,194 --> 00:12:42,529 But that's been a big part of the cost. And then 245 00:12:42,596 --> 00:12:44,398 there's also just overall inflation. So there's been 246 00:12:44,464 --> 00:12:47,534 inflation in all parts of the economy. And that also 247 00:12:47,601 --> 00:12:50,337 hits the health care prices. >> So I wanted to ask you I 248 00:12:50,404 --> 00:12:53,073 know that President Trump and members of the GOP talk 249 00:12:53,140 --> 00:12:55,375 about giving people direct payments like $2,000 or 250 00:12:55,442 --> 00:12:58,111 something to to pay for their health care and a 251 00:12:58,178 --> 00:12:59,913 health savings account or something like that. What 252 00:12:59,980 --> 00:13:02,583 do you think of that? >> Well. 253 00:13:02,649 --> 00:13:06,220 >> So, you know, it's hard to react too much. So, you 254 00:13:06,286 --> 00:13:09,423 know, the details and specifics really matter in 255 00:13:09,489 --> 00:13:12,726 health care. And so far the proposals haven't been very 256 00:13:12,793 --> 00:13:15,596 detailed. But if you instead gave people direct 257 00:13:15,662 --> 00:13:19,099 money that could be spent on anything health care 258 00:13:19,166 --> 00:13:22,236 premiums or out-of-pocket costs, you expose them to 259 00:13:22,302 --> 00:13:25,138 some more risk. If those subsidies don't keep up 260 00:13:25,205 --> 00:13:27,608 with the rising costs of health care, well, they're 261 00:13:27,674 --> 00:13:31,111 going to see that. On the other hand, you create more 262 00:13:31,178 --> 00:13:34,681 competitive pressure and good economic tradeoffs 263 00:13:34,748 --> 00:13:38,318 there that are worth thanks very much. 264 00:13:38,852 --> 00:13:41,288 >> Great. Thank you. >> What kind of bellwether 265 00:13:41,355 --> 00:13:44,291 were elections earlier this month in other states that 266 00:13:44,358 --> 00:13:47,127 saw Republican candidates on the losing end? And how 267 00:13:47,194 --> 00:13:50,330 do recent partisan fights over affordability of 268 00:13:50,397 --> 00:13:53,100 everything from health care to groceries play into 269 00:13:53,166 --> 00:13:56,003 outcomes in midterm elections? Next year, we 270 00:13:56,069 --> 00:13:58,272 turn to Marquette University Law School poll 271 00:13:58,338 --> 00:14:02,009 director Charles Franklin, out this week with his 272 00:14:02,075 --> 00:14:04,278 latest national poll. And Charles, nice to see you. 273 00:14:04,344 --> 00:14:07,314 >> Good to be here. >> So in terms of that 274 00:14:07,381 --> 00:14:09,650 first question, what do you think of whether November 275 00:14:09,716 --> 00:14:12,886 4th outcomes in other states are more than just 276 00:14:12,953 --> 00:14:16,123 kind of a cyclical swing? >> I think they show us 277 00:14:16,190 --> 00:14:18,425 where the country is right now, or at least where 278 00:14:18,492 --> 00:14:21,195 those states were. It's true that it's not a 279 00:14:21,261 --> 00:14:24,031 surprise that Democrats won those two states for the 280 00:14:24,097 --> 00:14:26,233 governorship. But remember, Virginia elected a 281 00:14:26,300 --> 00:14:28,268 Republican governor four years ago and is now 282 00:14:28,335 --> 00:14:31,371 elected a Democrat by a large margin. Maybe more 283 00:14:31,438 --> 00:14:34,341 important for here in Wisconsin, Democrats picked 284 00:14:34,408 --> 00:14:38,712 up 13 seats in the Virginia House of delegates, going 285 00:14:38,779 --> 00:14:43,250 from 51 seats to 64 seats. That was a remarkable shift. 286 00:14:43,317 --> 00:14:47,888 And the problems we saw there on inflation, on the 287 00:14:48,422 --> 00:14:50,224 economy are the same things we're seeing in national 288 00:14:50,290 --> 00:14:52,759 polling. >> So going into your 289 00:14:52,826 --> 00:14:55,362 national polling in 2026 congressional elections, 290 00:14:55,429 --> 00:14:58,999 you found that among likely voters, 53% of respondents 291 00:14:59,066 --> 00:15:03,237 would vote for Democrats, with 44% voting for 292 00:15:03,303 --> 00:15:05,239 Republicans. Does that result surprise you? 293 00:15:05,305 --> 00:15:09,276 >> It's a large result. That's a nine point gap. 294 00:15:09,343 --> 00:15:13,080 That's very substantial. Interestingly, with 295 00:15:13,146 --> 00:15:15,949 five point gap, a little bit smaller. The difference 296 00:15:16,016 --> 00:15:19,286 between those is Democrats now are more likely to say 297 00:15:19,353 --> 00:15:21,321 they're certain they're going to vote in the fall 298 00:15:21,388 --> 00:15:24,358 by about seven points more likely in this national 299 00:15:24,424 --> 00:15:27,761 poll. So you've got both the preference for 300 00:15:27,828 --> 00:15:31,398 Democrats and the motivation to turn out. And 301 00:15:31,465 --> 00:15:34,034 those two things, together with the likely vote 302 00:15:34,101 --> 00:15:35,936 numbers, drives up that Democratic margin quite a 303 00:15:36,003 --> 00:15:38,939 bit. >> So one result that was 304 00:15:39,006 --> 00:15:41,408 the reason for the government shutdown. In 305 00:15:41,475 --> 00:15:44,611 this poll, you found 70% of respondents favor extending 306 00:15:44,678 --> 00:15:48,148 the ACA tax credits. How big of a driver do you 307 00:15:48,215 --> 00:15:51,451 think that issue will be in the midterms? 308 00:15:51,518 --> 00:15:54,454 >> I think it could grow. I think the fact that people 309 00:15:54,521 --> 00:15:58,158 have just begun to see what they're insurance costs 310 00:15:58,225 --> 00:16:01,562 will be under the ACA for next year. If they're 311 00:16:01,628 --> 00:16:04,431 buying insurance on the marketplace. Also, for the 312 00:16:04,498 --> 00:16:07,234 folks that are affected by those tax credits going 313 00:16:07,301 --> 00:16:10,204 away, some of their increases are quite large. 314 00:16:10,270 --> 00:16:13,140 We shouldn't exaggerate how many people are affected, 315 00:16:13,207 --> 00:16:16,076 but it's a significant number that are. 316 00:16:16,143 --> 00:16:19,112 Republicans are really going to have to deal with 317 00:16:19,179 --> 00:16:21,148 this in the Congress, with or without Democratic 318 00:16:21,215 --> 00:16:24,084 agreement. But what are they doing for their party? 319 00:16:24,151 --> 00:16:28,455 And does this issue build over the fall into the 320 00:16:28,522 --> 00:16:32,759 election, or does it kind of Peter out? We don't know 321 00:16:32,826 --> 00:16:35,829 that yet. rating in your poll, in 322 00:16:37,598 --> 00:16:40,467 this national poll, he sits at 14 points underwater 323 00:16:40,534 --> 00:16:45,105 with 43% approving of his job performance, in 57% 324 00:16:46,373 --> 00:16:49,176 disapproving. But the wow number really here is that 325 00:16:49,243 --> 00:16:52,679 he's 50 points underwater with independents with 25% 326 00:16:52,746 --> 00:16:56,016 approval and 75% disapproval. What do you 327 00:16:56,083 --> 00:16:59,486 make of that? >> Well, that's a huge, 328 00:16:59,553 --> 00:17:01,688 huge problem politically and it's politically 329 00:17:01,755 --> 00:17:04,958 problem for the president, but also for Republicans 330 00:17:05,025 --> 00:17:08,462 going into the midterms because you can't just win 331 00:17:08,529 --> 00:17:11,431 on your own party base. You need to pick up at least a 332 00:17:11,498 --> 00:17:15,802 good share of those 14 or 15% of independents in the 333 00:17:15,869 --> 00:17:20,274 country. And these are historically pretty abysmal 334 00:17:20,340 --> 00:17:24,811 numbers for any president with independents at this 335 00:17:24,878 --> 00:17:27,514 point. Maybe it'll turn around. He's still strong 336 00:17:27,581 --> 00:17:30,617 with Republicans, 85% approval with them and 5% 337 00:17:30,684 --> 00:17:34,655 with Democrats. But independents are an 338 00:17:34,721 --> 00:17:37,858 important swing vote. And I think every member of 339 00:17:37,925 --> 00:17:41,762 Congress or legislator that sits in a district that's a 340 00:17:41,828 --> 00:17:44,231 close competitive district, especially, has to know 341 00:17:44,298 --> 00:17:46,500 that the independent vote in those districts could 342 00:17:46,567 --> 00:17:50,170 shift their margin 3 or 4 points one way or the other. 343 00:17:50,237 --> 00:17:52,139 That could be the difference between winning 344 00:17:52,206 --> 00:17:54,641 and losing. >> So as to that, 345 00:17:54,708 --> 00:17:57,444 transposing these national poll results to Wisconsin 346 00:17:57,511 --> 00:18:00,180 elections, what kind of warning signs do you see 347 00:18:00,247 --> 00:18:03,150 for Republicans in upcoming races, for Congress, 348 00:18:03,217 --> 00:18:05,419 legislature? >> Yeah, I think that what 349 00:18:05,485 --> 00:18:08,522 we saw in Virginia to come back to a real election, 350 00:18:08,589 --> 00:18:13,160 not just a poll, is that we saw Republican incumbents 351 00:18:13,227 --> 00:18:17,698 lose seats in Virginia that Trump had won by six points 352 00:18:17,764 --> 00:18:21,935 last time. So our competitive states here, 353 00:18:22,002 --> 00:18:25,172 sorry, districts, legislative districts here 354 00:18:25,239 --> 00:18:29,309 are within that kind of margin. Now I'm not for a 355 00:18:29,376 --> 00:18:31,378 minute saying that we will see the same swing here 356 00:18:31,445 --> 00:18:34,982 that we saw in Virginia. But Virginia, certainly a 357 00:18:35,048 --> 00:18:39,520 test case to show that that 4 or 5 six point swing, 358 00:18:41,388 --> 00:18:44,892 even in an incumbent district held by a 359 00:18:44,958 --> 00:18:48,262 Republican is at risk this year. 360 00:18:48,328 --> 00:18:50,163 Franklin, we'll leave it there. Thank you very much. 361 00:18:50,230 --> 00:18:53,200 >> Thank you. >> The annual gun deer 362 00:18:53,267 --> 00:18:56,904 hunting season in Wisconsin begins tomorrow. The long 363 00:18:56,970 --> 00:18:59,406 tradition of a regulated hunt in the state dates 364 00:18:59,473 --> 00:19:04,044 back to 1851. The modern season brings with it new 365 00:19:04,111 --> 00:19:06,246 challenges and opportunities for the 366 00:19:06,313 --> 00:19:08,215 thousands of hunters descending into the 367 00:19:08,282 --> 00:19:12,486 outdoors with high hopes for the harvest. Jeff 368 00:19:12,553 --> 00:19:15,489 Pritzl is longtime deer program specialist with the 369 00:19:15,556 --> 00:19:18,292 Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, and he 370 00:19:18,358 --> 00:19:21,195 joins us now. And Jeff, thanks a lot for being here. 371 00:19:21,261 --> 00:19:24,231 >> Happy to be here. It's the day of anticipation. 372 00:19:24,298 --> 00:19:27,568 >> Correct. So with the gun deer season starting 373 00:19:27,634 --> 00:19:31,805 tomorrow, how many licenses have been sold as a measure 374 00:19:31,872 --> 00:19:34,575 of interest this year? And how does that compare 375 00:19:34,641 --> 00:19:37,511 historically? >> Yeah, well, we're right 376 00:19:37,578 --> 00:19:40,414 on about the same pace as we've been the past couple 377 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:44,184 of years. Within a half a percent. So we'll be 378 00:19:44,251 --> 00:19:48,021 somewhere just shy of 600,000 deer hunters out on 379 00:19:48,088 --> 00:19:51,158 Saturday morning. Historically, Wisconsin 380 00:19:51,225 --> 00:19:55,462 peaked at 700,000 at the turn of the century 25 381 00:19:56,163 --> 00:19:59,366 years ago. So we've seen a decline that's really 382 00:19:59,433 --> 00:20:02,069 driven just by the demographics of our of our 383 00:20:02,135 --> 00:20:04,538 hunting population. But it's it's kind of 384 00:20:04,605 --> 00:20:06,840 stabilized the last couple of years, which is a good 385 00:20:06,907 --> 00:20:09,476 thing. don't sound bad. The 386 00:20:10,244 --> 00:20:13,547 estimate is that there are 2 million deer walking 387 00:20:13,614 --> 00:20:17,451 around out there. What do conditions this year look 388 00:20:17,518 --> 00:20:21,288 like for hunters to be able to harvest them? 389 00:20:21,355 --> 00:20:24,024 >> Well, the things that are in Hunter's favor this 390 00:20:24,091 --> 00:20:27,261 year are we're going to have relatively cool and 391 00:20:27,327 --> 00:20:30,631 calm conditions. We know we're not going to have 392 00:20:30,697 --> 00:20:32,666 that, at least at the beginning of the season. 393 00:20:32,733 --> 00:20:35,068 Agricultural harvest, especially corn harvest, is 394 00:20:35,135 --> 00:20:38,405 at or ahead of schedule. And so that's good in the 395 00:20:38,472 --> 00:20:42,176 farmland. And we're coming off of two mild winters. So 396 00:20:42,242 --> 00:20:44,478 that means the deer population in the northern 397 00:20:44,545 --> 00:20:47,481 forest is trending up a little bit. The things that 398 00:20:47,548 --> 00:20:50,417 are stacked against us are that it's relatively late 399 00:20:50,484 --> 00:20:54,254 opener on the calendar. So the later we get into 400 00:20:54,321 --> 00:20:56,423 November with the opener, we do see a little 401 00:20:56,490 --> 00:20:59,193 reduction in daytime deer movement. And so that that 402 00:20:59,259 --> 00:21:01,962 could work against us this weekend. But that's just 403 00:21:02,029 --> 00:21:04,831 part of the nature of hunting. 404 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,403 Wisconsin that look more favorable for hunters? 405 00:21:09,469 --> 00:21:11,972 >> Well. >> I always think that's in 406 00:21:12,039 --> 00:21:14,341 the eye of the beholder, because not all hunters are 407 00:21:14,408 --> 00:21:18,278 looking for the same thing. For the best chance to see 408 00:21:18,345 --> 00:21:21,014 deer and harvest deer. You know, the counties in the 409 00:21:21,081 --> 00:21:24,284 state that perennially have the highest harvest 410 00:21:24,351 --> 00:21:26,553 densities are counties like Waupaca and Marquette, 411 00:21:26,620 --> 00:21:29,256 green Lake, that east central part of the state. 412 00:21:29,323 --> 00:21:33,193 We saw 13 counties in mostly in east central 413 00:21:33,260 --> 00:21:35,229 Wisconsin have a record buck kill last year, and 414 00:21:35,295 --> 00:21:38,532 they're probably going to be in that same area this 415 00:21:38,599 --> 00:21:41,201 year. But if hunters that are looking for a different 416 00:21:41,268 --> 00:21:44,037 kind of experience, maybe a little more solitude and a 417 00:21:44,104 --> 00:21:46,206 lot of country to explore, you know, the northern 418 00:21:46,273 --> 00:21:49,109 forest, you know, offers that in spades with big, 419 00:21:49,176 --> 00:21:51,245 big chunks of state and federal properties. That's 420 00:21:51,311 --> 00:21:55,415 where I'll be this weekend. Looking forward to that 421 00:21:55,482 --> 00:21:58,118 kind of an experience. I may not see as many deer, 422 00:21:58,185 --> 00:22:00,521 but that's not everyone's primary objective. 423 00:22:00,587 --> 00:22:04,591 >> So how do recent harvests of between 3 and 424 00:22:05,893 --> 00:22:09,796 350,000 across all deer seasons compare? 425 00:22:12,299 --> 00:22:16,103 >> We've actually been in a pretty stable pattern 426 00:22:16,170 --> 00:22:19,106 really over the past decade in that, yeah, like you 427 00:22:19,173 --> 00:22:23,710 said, 300 350,000. And it kind of undulates up and 428 00:22:23,777 --> 00:22:27,114 down, driven mostly by antlerless deer harvest on 429 00:22:27,181 --> 00:22:31,318 the buck harvest has been pretty stable. And 430 00:22:31,385 --> 00:22:35,189 seeing a slight decline in hunter numbers, that that 431 00:22:35,255 --> 00:22:37,758 stability of of harvest means that that more 432 00:22:37,824 --> 00:22:40,227 hunters are being successful. But it's 433 00:22:40,294 --> 00:22:43,197 certainly hunters that remember 20 years ago where 434 00:22:43,263 --> 00:22:46,867 we were in kind of a bubble of really high deer numbers 435 00:22:46,934 --> 00:22:49,203 and high hunter numbers? Remember those harvests 436 00:22:49,269 --> 00:22:51,738 where we were getting between 400,000 deer and 437 00:22:51,805 --> 00:22:55,442 then that peak, we got as many as 600,000 deer, but 438 00:22:55,509 --> 00:22:58,111 that was driven by really high antlerless harvests, 439 00:22:58,178 --> 00:23:01,181 which we're not seeing these days. And so it's 440 00:23:01,248 --> 00:23:04,484 we've we've had quite a bit of actual pretty stable 441 00:23:04,551 --> 00:23:07,287 conditions. Other than that, minor fluctuations with 442 00:23:07,354 --> 00:23:09,690 weather and stuff in recent years. 443 00:23:09,756 --> 00:23:11,892 >> You speak about hunters considering being a hunter 444 00:23:11,959 --> 00:23:14,928 for the community, not just for themselves or 445 00:23:14,995 --> 00:23:19,032 individually. What do you mean by that? 446 00:23:19,099 --> 00:23:22,503 >> Back to what we were just talking about in that 447 00:23:22,569 --> 00:23:25,138 those hunters that find themselves fortunate in the 448 00:23:25,205 --> 00:23:28,175 positions where they have access to deer, the 449 00:23:28,242 --> 00:23:31,311 challenge that we have is once a Wisconsin deer 450 00:23:31,378 --> 00:23:33,580 hunter gets a deer, has it in the freezer. Their 451 00:23:33,647 --> 00:23:36,183 incentive to take another deer goes way down. So even 452 00:23:36,250 --> 00:23:39,419 though we provide that opportunity, they're not 453 00:23:39,486 --> 00:23:42,289 necessarily incentivized to harvest an adequate number 454 00:23:42,356 --> 00:23:46,293 of deer in the places where we really have the 455 00:23:46,360 --> 00:23:49,096 those hunters hopefully would be able to say, I can 456 00:23:49,162 --> 00:23:53,166 take an extra deer and there's that can be put to 457 00:23:53,233 --> 00:23:56,403 use through our formal deer donation program. But 458 00:23:56,470 --> 00:23:59,540 there's a lot of other side benefits to managing the 459 00:23:59,606 --> 00:24:03,143 deer population, both ecologically and within the 460 00:24:03,210 --> 00:24:06,313 tolerances of human social tolerances, relates to car 461 00:24:06,380 --> 00:24:09,249 accidents and crop damage and all those types of 462 00:24:09,316 --> 00:24:12,586 things. And so this, you know, hunters for eons, 463 00:24:12,653 --> 00:24:15,756 actually were a subset of the population that hunted 464 00:24:15,822 --> 00:24:18,792 for their community as a whole. We've kind of moved 465 00:24:18,859 --> 00:24:22,029 culturally towards a hunt thing being wolves. And 466 00:24:22,095 --> 00:24:24,565 it's it's, I think, behooves us to recapture 467 00:24:24,631 --> 00:24:28,202 that, that notion that we're we're hunters for the 468 00:24:28,268 --> 00:24:31,071 community so that the greater community sees us 469 00:24:31,138 --> 00:24:34,608 as an asset to them. >> What do you want hunters 470 00:24:34,675 --> 00:24:37,511 to be on the lookout for in terms of chronic wasting 471 00:24:37,578 --> 00:24:41,048 disease? >> Well, it's important for 472 00:24:42,649 --> 00:24:46,453 us to keep a good tab on how that disease is 473 00:24:47,421 --> 00:24:50,657 evolving in the state, both in terms of its rate of on 474 00:24:50,724 --> 00:24:53,393 the landscape and the prevalence within the areas. 475 00:24:53,460 --> 00:24:55,329 It's we're gathering really good information that not 476 00:24:55,395 --> 00:24:58,165 only helps us make better decisions in the future 477 00:24:58,232 --> 00:25:00,534 within Wisconsin, but other states are really learning 478 00:25:00,601 --> 00:25:03,170 from what we're capturing here in Wisconsin because 479 00:25:03,237 --> 00:25:06,273 the disease is not going away. But we can there are 480 00:25:06,340 --> 00:25:09,376 steps we can take to mitigate its spread and and 481 00:25:09,443 --> 00:25:13,113 work within having it on the landscape. So really 482 00:25:13,180 --> 00:25:16,083 our focus is on that leading edge where the 483 00:25:16,149 --> 00:25:18,385 disease is spreading in the state, really kind of 484 00:25:18,452 --> 00:25:21,221 across the middle of the state. We we encourage 485 00:25:21,288 --> 00:25:24,157 hunters statewide to, you know, get their deer 486 00:25:24,224 --> 00:25:26,426 sampled. And we've developed a good cohort of 487 00:25:26,493 --> 00:25:29,496 what I would call citizen science hunters that that 488 00:25:29,563 --> 00:25:32,866 do participate every year and contribute to that, 489 00:25:32,933 --> 00:25:35,169 that database better decision making. 490 00:25:35,235 --> 00:25:37,471 >> We'll leave it there. Jeff Pritzl, thanks very 491 00:25:37,538 --> 00:25:40,574 much for joining us. >> You bet. Good luck to 492 00:25:40,641 --> 00:25:43,110 all the hunters. >> On this and other issues 493 00:25:43,177 --> 00:25:45,679 facing Wisconsin. Visit our website at PBS Wisconsin. 494 00:25:45,746 --> 00:25:49,116 Org and then click on the news tab. That's our 495 00:25:49,183 --> 00:25:52,085 program for tonight I'm Frederica Freyberg. Have a 496 00:25:52,152 --> 00:25:53,820 good weekend. 497 00:26:45,339 --> 00:26:48,976 >> Funding for "Here& Now" is provided by the Focus 498 00:26:49,042 --> 00:26:53,714 Fund for Journalism and Friends of PBS Wisconsin.