good day. >> Wisconsin's population is on
a steep decline. The latest projection from the state
Department of Administration shows Wisconsin's population is
expected to decline by nearly 200,000 residents by 2050. It's
all about aging and babies and migration in and out of the
state. But what are the implications for Wisconsin in
the face of a population drop off? We turn to Dale Knapp,
director of forward Analytics. And thanks very much for being
here. >> So we just kind of named what
we think is going on, but what are the drivers of population
decline in Wisconsin? >> Well, you know, the baby
boomers that, that that demographic, you know is one of
the drivers that they're now entering their, their later
years. But really the big the two big drivers of this
population decline that we're now beginning to, to see is the
lack of, of babies. We've seen the number of births drop every
year, but two since 2007. The births in 2000, 23 were the
lowest since 1942. That's amazing. And then the other
piece is the other component is migration. We saw big net
migration into the state, into the 1990s, and it's lagged ever
since. And when you have the demographics that we do kind of
baked into our future growth or no growth, you need migration
into the state to fill those gaps. And we're not seeing that.
>> Where are population declines happening fastest in the state?
They're happening fastest in the rural North.
>> You know, they've been that's been going on for 20 years. Slow
growth and then some decline. We saw a bump in this last decade
in the census in a number of counties in the north. But it
was really all baby boomers that have retired moving north, which
doesn't help for workforce. And those key things that they need
to, you know, for, for their economy. But, you know, as they
age, that's going to, you know, they're going to move on as
well. So, so certainly people have been talking about this for
a long time. >> We have known it has been
coming, but is it worse than expected in your mind?
>> No, I don't I think it's a little bit worse because of the
decline in births. Births generally move up and down in
kind of cycles. And when birth started to decline in 2007, I
think most demographers thought, you know, that was going to be
temporary. It was going to be, you know, six, seven, eight, ten
years. And it's not been it's continued. And it's happening.
Happening everywhere. And unfortunately, there's really no
signs that that's going to change in the near future. And
so I think that's the that's the part that has sort of surprised
us over, over the past, you know, 5 or 6 years and has made
the projections as you look out, look, you know, much worse.
>> So what are the implications for population drop offs of this
magnitude? >> Well, you know, there there
there's a lot of implications. I think the number one that you
look at is workforce. Our 25 to 64 year old population is
expected to decline by almost 200,000. Just in this decade.
And then more over the following couple of decades. We're already
looking at labor shortages everywhere throughout the state,
so it's not only going to continue, it's likely to get
worse. And then when you look a, you know, especially the
declines in births, the impact there on schools whose funding
is tied to enrollment, we're likely to continue to see
declining enrollment there. And financial challenges for our
schools. >> So meanwhile, Dane County is
the total outlier with big projected population gains by
2050. What sets Dane County apart, and can it be replicated?
>> Well, I think you know, one of the. Dane County is unique in
that it has both. It's the home of state government and it has
the major university. And I think when you look around the
country, you'll see that those counties that have that are
generally more prosperous and growing and so Dane County has
all of that. It kind of makes it a little bit recession proof to
some degree, because you don't have the economic fluctuations
of laying off people as much with with government. And so
that's that's part of it. But it's also, you know, it's become
a place that has a lot to offer in terms of recreation and
activities and restaurants. ET cetera. And so people look at it
and, you know, they see it as a, as a great place to, you know,
raise their kids whether they want to be in a more urban area.
Madison, Or in one of the a little bit more outlying
communities. We will obviously be watching
these numbers. Doyle Knapp. these numbers. Doyle Knapp.