>> Good evening. I'm Frederica Freyberg. We are fresh off the
US Senate debate and we want to talk about it. We're joined by
UW lacrosse political science professor Anthony Chergosky. And
thanks a lot for being here. Thank you. So you watched this
debate with us and the rest of the state, presumably. Was there
a clear winner in this high stakes event?
example of the candidates being fired up. I'm not sure that
there was an obvious winner on either side, but what we have
seen, Fred, is that this campaign has heated up. There
are elections prognosticators that are saying this is a very
close race, that this race has tightened and we saw that in the
intensity that the campaigns that the candidates brought to
the table. that way?
private lives, we saw Tammy Baldwin get animated and angry
when Eric Hovde brought up her partner and alleged conflicts of
interest surrounding her work and her partner's work, her work
in the Senate, and what her partner does as a wealth
advisor. Meanwhile, Eric Hovde got caught up talking about his
role in California, his role as a banker, and how the Baldwin
team has made that a relentless and consistent element of this
campaign. lives is really got them. What
got them fired up there? But there were obviously some
substantive issues discussed here, including the issue of
abortion, where both candidates obviously have gone back and
forth and talked about the other's position. Let's go ahead
and take a listen to what they said on that.
>> And I think we as a state should resolve this issue with a
referendum where everybody gets a right to vote. The voters get
a right to vote. I get a right to vote. I clarified where my
position is, and that is, I believe that women should have a
right to choose early on in their pregnancy. But there comes
a point in time where a baby can be born healthy and alive, and I
think thinks it's unconscionable to terminate that child's life.
>> Eric Hovde that does not happen in America, and it's very
clear that he has never read Roe v Wade. I'm pushing to have that
be the law of the land. Your rights and freedoms should not
depend on your zip code or the state in which you live. And
while I said what he just said doesn't happen in America so as
to that issue, what do you make of him talking about a
referendum in the state of Wisconsin?
that in state law. There is no referendum process. That state
law provides for. But this is what we heard. Ron Johnson talk
about in the 2022 campaign. And it was a way for Ron Johnson to
talk about the issue of abortion while then pivoting towards
issues that may have been more favorable to him. We also saw
the candidates trying to have two different debates here. Eric
Hovde wanted to push Baldwin on if abortion should be allowed at
all points of a pregnancy. While Baldwin wanted to push Hovde on
if Roe versus Wade should be reinstated. So they were asking
fundamentally different they were trying to
strategically frame the issue in a way that played to their
strengths. >> So Cook Political Report, you
mentioned this just a minute ago, calls the Baldwin Hovde
race a toss up, even though the most recent Marquette University
Law School poll had her seven points up, what might be
realigning this race? to support Eric Hovde, and when
we see a surge of late money, we always want to ask why that's
happening. The assumption might be that internal polls and
internal analyzes are suggesting that this is a closer race than
the public polling might lead us to believe. So the late money,
the rumors about internal polls have caused people to give this
race a second look. >> How astronomical are these
spending numbers that we're seeing or money coming in
numbers not quite as astronomical as some other
states. >> States like Montana and Ohio
have seen. Absolutely astronomical. As you said, sums
of money. Wisconsin has been a bit of an afterthought, at least
until recently. Now we are seeing more money come into the
Wisconsin Senate race because the map is narrowing. Democrats
sense that the Montana Senate race is going not in their
direction. Meanwhile, Republicans are concerned by how
their candidates in Nevada and Arizona are faring. So the map
is narrowing the range of competitive Senate races is
narrowing, and that has brought new focus on this Wisconsin
race, because what are the stakes in this race for the
makeup of the U.S. Senate right now? Republicans do have an
advantage in the race for majority control of the U.S.
Senate. Democrats have a Montana problem where their incumbent
there, Jon Tester, seems to be in quite a bit of trouble. But
there's a big difference between a 5050 Senate that goes towards
the Republicans. If there's a Republican tiebreaker for the
VP, a 51, 49, a 52, 48, each vote matters a lot in the
politics of the U.S. Senate. So it matters if Republicans get a
one seat majority, a two seat majority, a three seat majority,
that makes a huge difference. And so they'd love to have this
seat here in Wisconsin. >> Speaking of what we
understand is the largest voting block in Wisconsin, and that is
voters over the age of 65, an issue that was brought up in
this debate, of course, was Social Security. And let's take
a listen to how the candidates answered a question about that.
>> The Hovde plan that reverts and resets spending levels to
levels from the last decade would cut Social Security by
28%, an average of $500 per month. That's $6,000 per year.
Talk about, you know, when people need money in their
pockets. And why is he supporting the Hovde plan?
Because he supports a $4 trillion tax giveaway to the
very wealthy and big corporations, and he supports
spending, just not for you. >> The one thing you have
perfected in Washington is your ability to lie. I can't even
believe you have the ability to stand here and say something
like that. Look, I believe we need to protect social Security
and keep it sacrosanct for everybody who's on Social
Security or getting ready to retire. If you want to know why
social Security is in trouble, it's real simple, because we've
taken federal debt. >> How salient is the issue of
Social Security here in Wisconsin?
salient. And I say that because social Security is always
salient. It is a massive share of the federal budget, and it is
understandably referred to as the third rail of American
politics. If a politician tries to touch it, it doesn't often
work out well for them. So even though there have been headline
grabbing issues related to immigration and the border and
inflation, all important issues, understandably. But Social
Security is a constant source of political intrigue in U.S.
Politics. did address that as well
tonight. But as we listened to it, we thought that they were
kind of saying the same things that we've heard.
>> We heard familiar themes from both sides. We heard Hovde
accuse Senator Baldwin of being weak on the border, of being
unserious about the need for bolstering security at the
US-Mexico border. Meanwhile, we saw Baldwin go after Hovde on
the issue of the Senate negotiations. The negotiated
Senate immigration bill that ended up being tanked as
President Trump intervened and told Republicans that he was not
on board with that bill. So that has given Democrats a real
talking point. And the discussion about immigration
reflected the partisan divide that we've seen in races all
across the country, including the presidential race. Familiar
on both sides for the immigration issue and the
Baldwin Hovde debate as to Donald Trump does, does he help
Eric Hovde here or hurt him? >> And then on the flip side, is
Kamala Harris helping or hurting Tammy Baldwin?
talk about how Senator Baldwin might be able to peel off a few
of Donald Trump's supporters, and we know that split ticket
voting is quite rare nowadays. That cross party voting, it just
doesn't happen that much. But in a state like Wisconsin, where
the presidential election has been decided by about 20,000
votes, the last two elections, a little split ticket voting, a
little cross party voting here and there could make a big
difference in this Senate race. >> Well, another thing that came
up in this debate was these attack ads that we're seeing on
both sides across the airwaves and the panel of debate
questioners asked them about those. And let's take a listen
to what they said. >> Mintz Eric Hovde is lying. I
think it's really hard to say that an ad is false when you are
hearing Eric Hovde in his own words, you're seeing this with
your eyes. I'm telling you things. He has said the context
of that ad relating to farmers was he was doing an interview
about why we could easily increase the retirement age to
72, because farmers didn't take the physical toil they used to.
They just largely ride around on tractors. I spend so much time
with dairy farmers and I can tell you they are insulted by
those words. And I stand by those you claim I live in
California and that's where I am.
>> And I'm not a wisconsinite. Even though, as I said, I live
in the neighborhood you grew up, you know, there's such thing as
a way to prove it. It's called a utility bill.
>> What did you think of that? >> Looking for that viral
moment? Fred? A lot of people consume bits and pieces of
debates. A lot of people certainly watched the whole
thing. But for many others, they're going to be watching the
clips that they see on the news. The clips that they see online.
And so it was wise of the Hovde campaign to try to get that
memorable moment there that people might view as we go
forward in the final days of this campaign.
watching and analyzing Wisconsin's election for both
president and U.S. Senate when it is on such a razor's edge?
Well, I mean, the tough thing about analyzing Wisconsin
elections is that anything could make the difference.
>> Typically, as a political scientist, I'm skeptical about
how any one aspect of the campaign might really shake up
the electorate, how it might influence voters. Typically,
campaigns have rather modest effects on how voters think
through their choices, but modest effects can be the whole
ballgame. In a Wisconsin election, and that makes it
enormously challenging, because if we're thinking about a 20,000
vote margin, imagine all of the things that happen in the
campaign that could cause 20,000 votes to shift one way or the
other. That's where we're at in Wisconsin.
viral moment kind of thing. >> Absolutely. And that has been
a consistent theme of the Baldwin campaign that Hovde
lives in California, that he's more interested in California
than Wisconsin. And so Hovde his campaign here, trying to flip
the script on that, trying to create a memorable moment where
they can counteract that talking point from the Baldwin campaign
with less than a minute left in the final weeks of campaigns,
what should folks in Wisconsin expect in terms of a total
onslaught? Yes, the closing argument, and there aren't many
persuadable voters left. There weren't that many to begin with,
and there are even fewer now. So we are going to see the
candidates try to figure out what does that 1%, 2%, 3% of
voters who are still persuadable, what do they want?
What will resonate with them and we're going to see them give
their best effort at trying to their best effort at trying to