vote. >> Funding for here and Now is
provided by the Focus Fund for Journalism and Friends of PBS
Wisconsin. >> Good evening. I'm Frederica
Freyberg. We are fresh off the US Senate debate and we want to
talk about it. We're joined by UW lacrosse political science
professor Anthony Chergosky. And thanks a lot for being here.
Thank you. So you watched this debate with us and the rest of
the state, presumably. Was there a clear winner in this high
stakes event? example of the candidates being
fired up. I'm not sure that there was an obvious winner on
either side, but what we have seen, Fred, is that this
campaign has heated up. There are elections prognosticators
that are saying this is a very close race, that this race has
tightened and we saw that in the intensity that the campaigns
that the candidates brought to the table.
that way? private lives, we saw Tammy
Baldwin get animated and angry when Eric Hovde brought up her
partner and alleged conflicts of interest surrounding her work
and her partner's work, her work in the Senate, and what her
partner does as a wealth advisor. Meanwhile, Eric Hovde
got caught up talking about his role in California, his role as
a banker, and how the Baldwin team has made that a relentless
and consistent element of this campaign.
lives is really got them. What got them fired up there? But
there were obviously some substantive issues discussed
here, including the issue of abortion, where both candidates
obviously have gone back and forth and talked about the
other's position. Let's go ahead and take a listen to what they
said on that. >> And I think we as a state
should resolve this issue with a referendum where everybody gets
a right to vote. The voters get a right to vote. I get a right
to vote. I clarified where my position is, and that is, I
believe that women should have a right to choose early on in
their pregnancy. But there comes a point in time where a baby can
be born healthy and alive, and I think thinks it's unconscionable
to terminate that child's life. >> Eric Hovde that does not
happen in America, and it's very clear that he has never read Roe
v Wade. I'm pushing to have that be the law of the land. Your
rights and freedoms should not depend on your zip code or the
state in which you live. And while I said what he just said
doesn't happen in America so as to that issue, what do you make
of him talking about a referendum in the state of
Wisconsin? that in state law. There is no
referendum process. That state law provides for. But this is
what we heard. Ron Johnson talk about in the 2022 campaign. And
it was a way for Ron Johnson to talk about the issue of abortion
while then pivoting towards issues that may have been more
favorable to him. We also saw the candidates trying to have
two different debates here. Eric Hovde wanted to push Baldwin on
if abortion should be allowed at all points of a pregnancy. While
Baldwin wanted to push Hovde on if Roe versus Wade should be
reinstated. So they were asking fundamentally different
they were trying to strategically frame the issue in
a way that played to their strengths.
>> So Cook Political Report, you mentioned this just a minute
ago, calls the Baldwin Hovde race a toss up, even though the
most recent Marquette University Law School poll had her seven
points up, what might be realigning this race?
to support Eric Hovde, and when we see a surge of late money, we
always want to ask why that's happening. The assumption might
be that internal polls and internal analyzes are suggesting
that this is a closer race than the public polling might lead us
to believe. So the late money, the rumors about internal polls
have caused people to give this race a second look.
>> How astronomical are these spending numbers that we're
seeing or money coming in numbers not quite as
astronomical as some other states.
>> States like Montana and Ohio have seen. Absolutely
astronomical. As you said, sums of money. Wisconsin has been a
bit of an afterthought, at least until recently. Now we are
seeing more money come into the Wisconsin Senate race because
the map is narrowing. Democrats sense that the Montana Senate
race is going not in their direction. Meanwhile,
Republicans are concerned by how their candidates in Nevada and
Arizona are faring. So the map is narrowing the range of
competitive Senate races is narrowing, and that has brought
new focus on this Wisconsin race, because what are the
stakes in this race for the makeup of the U.S. Senate right
now? Republicans do have an advantage in the race for
majority control of the U.S. Senate. Democrats have a Montana
problem where their incumbent there, Jon Tester, seems to be
in quite a bit of trouble. But there's a big difference between
a 5050 Senate that goes towards the Republicans. If there's a
Republican tiebreaker for the VP, a 51, 49, a 52, 48, each
vote matters a lot in the politics of the U.S. Senate. So
it matters if Republicans get a one seat majority, a two seat
majority, a three seat majority, that makes a huge difference.
And so they'd love to have this seat here in Wisconsin.
>> Speaking of what we understand is the largest voting
block in Wisconsin, and that is voters over the age of 65, an
issue that was brought up in this debate, of course, was
Social Security. And let's take a listen to how the candidates
answered a question about that. >> The Hovde plan that reverts
and resets spending levels to levels from the last decade
would cut Social Security by 28%, an average of $500 per
month. That's $6,000 per year. Talk about, you know, when
people need money in their pockets. And why is he
supporting the Hovde plan? Because he supports a $4
trillion tax giveaway to the very wealthy and big
corporations, and he supports spending, just not for you.
>> The one thing you have perfected in Washington is your
ability to lie. I can't even believe you have the ability to
stand here and say something like that. Look, I believe we
need to protect social Security and keep it sacrosanct for
everybody who's on Social Security or getting ready to
retire. If you want to know why social Security is in trouble,
it's real simple, because we've taken federal debt.
>> How salient is the issue of Social Security here in
Wisconsin? salient. And I say that because
social Security is always salient. It is a massive share
of the federal budget, and it is understandably referred to as
the third rail of American politics. If a politician tries
to touch it, it doesn't often work out well for them. So even
though there have been headline grabbing issues related to
immigration and the border and inflation, all important issues,
understandably. But Social Security is a constant source of
political intrigue in U.S. Politics.
did address that as well tonight. But as we listened to
it, we thought that they were kind of saying the same things
that we've heard. >> We heard familiar themes from
both sides. We heard Hovde accuse Senator Baldwin of being
weak on the border, of being unserious about the need for
bolstering security at the US-Mexico border. Meanwhile, we
saw Baldwin go after Hovde on the issue of the Senate
negotiations. The negotiated Senate immigration bill that
ended up being tanked as President Trump intervened and
told Republicans that he was not on board with that bill. So that
has given Democrats a real talking point. And the
discussion about immigration reflected the partisan divide
that we've seen in races all across the country, including
the presidential race. Familiar on both sides for the
immigration issue and the Baldwin Hovde debate as to
Donald Trump does, does he help Eric Hovde here or hurt him?
>> And then on the flip side, is Kamala Harris helping or hurting
Tammy Baldwin? talk about how Senator Baldwin
might be able to peel off a few of Donald Trump's supporters,
and we know that split ticket voting is quite rare nowadays.
That cross party voting, it just doesn't happen that much. But in
a state like Wisconsin, where the presidential election has
been decided by about 20,000 votes, the last two elections, a
little split ticket voting, a little cross party voting here
and there could make a big difference in this Senate race.
>> Well, another thing that came up in this debate was these
attack ads that we're seeing on both sides across the airwaves
and the panel of debate questioners asked them about
those. And let's take a listen to what they said.
>> Mintz Eric Hovde is lying. I think it's really hard to say
that an ad is false when you are hearing Eric Hovde in his own
words, you're seeing this with your eyes. I'm telling you
things. He has said the context of that ad relating to farmers
was he was doing an interview about why we could easily
increase the retirement age to 72, because farmers didn't take
the physical toil they used to. They just largely ride around on
tractors. I spend so much time with dairy farmers and I can
tell you they are insulted by those words. And I stand by
those you claim I live in California and that's where I
am. >> And I'm not a wisconsinite.
Even though, as I said, I live in the neighborhood you grew up,
you know, there's such thing as a way to prove it. It's called a
utility bill. >> What did you think of that?
>> Looking for that viral moment? Fred? A lot of people
consume bits and pieces of debates. A lot of people
certainly watched the whole thing. But for many others,
they're going to be watching the clips that they see on the news.
The clips that they see online. And so it was wise of the Hovde
campaign to try to get that memorable moment there that
people might view as we go forward in the final days of
this campaign. watching and analyzing
Wisconsin's election for both president and U.S. Senate when
it is on such a razor's edge? Well, I mean, the tough thing
about analyzing Wisconsin elections is that anything could
make the difference. >> Typically, as a political
scientist, I'm skeptical about how any one aspect of the
campaign might really shake up the electorate, how it might
influence voters. Typically, campaigns have rather modest
effects on how voters think through their choices, but
modest effects can be the whole ballgame. In a Wisconsin
election, and that makes it enormously challenging, because
if we're thinking about a 20,000 vote margin, imagine all of the
things that happen in the campaign that could cause 20,000
votes to shift one way or the other. That's where we're at in
Wisconsin. viral moment kind of thing.
>> Absolutely. And that has been a consistent theme of the
Baldwin campaign that Hovde lives in California, that he's
more interested in California than Wisconsin. And so Hovde his
campaign here, trying to flip the script on that, trying to
create a memorable moment where they can counteract that talking
point from the Baldwin campaign with less than a minute left in
the final weeks of campaigns, what should folks in Wisconsin
expect in terms of a total onslaught? Yes, the closing
argument, and there aren't many persuadable voters left. There
weren't that many to begin with, and there are even fewer now. So
we are going to see the candidates try to figure out
what does that 1%, 2%, 3% of voters who are still
persuadable, what do they want? What will resonate with them and
we're going to see them give their best effort at trying to
reach those voters. >> All right, Anthony Chergosky,
we really appreciate you coming down to join us tonight.
>> Thank you. >> Now to other election news.
The number of absentee ballot drop boxes in Wisconsin has
plummeted since the 2020 election, falling out of favor
in many places across the state after voting fraud conspiracies
called their use into question. The Wausau mayor made a splash
when he moved the box outside City Hall there, without the
permission of the municipal clerk, even prompting an ongoing
investigation from the state Department of Justice. The
Wausau ballot drop box is back in place for voters, but as
"Here& Now" reporter Steven Potter explains, the recent
history of the boxes has led to changing access to them.
>> We believe that the more communities that use the drop
box will have better turnout and will offer more, more people to
participate in our democratic process.
box does create opportunity for those that want to circumvent
the law. The use of ballot drop boxes has been on and off and on
again over the last few years in Wisconsin, these boxes were the
target of court cases and wide ranging conspiracy theories
since they became popular during the pandemic and heavily used
during the presidential election of 2020. The boxes themselves
are simple. They look a lot like a mailbox. They're locked,
bolted to the ground and are usually placed near government
buildings like City Hall, a public library or fire station.
Their function is to collect absentee voting ballots before
Election Day. Voter outreach advocates like Sam Liebert say
that ballot drop boxes are part of opening the elective process
to as many voters as possible. >> A lot of people that we've
talked to who like having absentee ballot drop boxes are
folks especially like single parents, people who may be like
third shift workers, nurses, things like that. But at the end
of the day, there are large swaths of our population that
either can't or don't want to vote on Election Day. Maybe they
requested their ballot too late. And so maybe they don't have
enough time to return that in the mail. And so a ballot drop
box makes the most sense. >> Those opposed to ballot drop
boxes, like Sheriff Dale Schmidt of Dodge County, say that their
use raises too many questions around security and counterfeit
voting. >> I think if you look back to
the 2020 election, we had, whether it was legitimate or
not, the perception that drop boxes were creating fraud. Even
if there's a perception of fraud, it can cast doubt on the
entire election system. >> Before last August's primary
election, Sheriff Schmidt sent three municipal clerks in the
county a letter questioning the security of their ballot drop
boxes. >> It wasn't necessarily to say,
you can't have a drop box. In fact, I told them it's their
right to do that. My preference is that they not have them until
they have those processes in place. And at the end of the
day, those three clerks, the only three in the county that
were considering it all, decided it was in the best interest of
their municipality to not have the drop box around Wisconsin.
>> A number of other municipal clerks have decided against
letting their voters use drop boxes, including in the
southeast corner of the state in Milwaukee and Waukesha counties,
where voter turnout is always high and always heavily
scrutinized. Elena Hilby is the clerk for the City of Sun
Prairie, and she's also the president of the Wisconsin
Municipal Clerks Association. >> The municipal clerk has the
authority over the drop box. They will decide whether it's
appropriate to use in their community and how to use them.
>> Hilby says there are several reasons why a clerk may choose
not to use a ballot drop box. >> It could be political
pressure. It could be that they don't have the infrastructure.
They don't have a way to secure it. It could be that their
communities don't need it. They don't require it.
>> Conflicts over ballot drop boxes began when the then
conservative majority over the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled in
2022 that the boxes were illegal, but last July, now with
a Liberal majority, the court ruled that drop boxes could
again be used in elections. The Wisconsin Elections Commission
has offered guidance on drop box security and ballot collection,
but how many of the boxes are in use for this election? Elections
Commission Administrator Meagan estimated 78 boxes across the
state. That's compared to 500 ballot drop boxes used during
the 2020 election. Sam Liebert of the all Voting Is Local group
is also trying to track it. >> Our organization is tracking
about 60 or 70 municipalities that have decided not to use
drop boxes. >> Two communities that will
certainly be using ballot drop boxes. This November are the
state's largest cities, Madison and Milwaukee. Paulina Gutierrez
is the executive director of the Milwaukee Election Commission.
She says that the placement of the city's 15 ballot drop boxes
at libraries and city hall was very deliberate.
the cameras have always been there. As part of the Milwaukee
Public Library and in our city Hall complex and our operations
center, we just installed the ballot drop boxes where there is
a camera. >> So they've always been under
24 hour surveillance. I think it helps to give the voters some
confidence in what we're doing, and if there is a situation
where we need to investigate, we have that evidence.
>> With Wisconsin being a key battleground state for the
presidential election, some groups have discussed plans for
monitoring or even videotaping people using ballot drop boxes.
Gutierrez says that's allowed, but also warns these would be
watchers. >> We don't mind having
observers. I think what's important to know that is if an
observer is disrupting the process, we will act swiftly and
immediately and contact law enforcement if we have to.
>> For "Here& Now", I'm Steven Potter for the first time in
more than a decade, control of Wisconsin's legislature is
actually up for grabs this fall because of a new round of
redistricting ordered by the Liberal majority on the
Wisconsin Supreme Court. >> Voters across the state are
learning they actually live in a competitive district. Nowhere is
that more apparent than in the green Bay area, where there are
350 over 50 races with no incumbents "Here& Now", senior
political reporter Zach Schultz spent a week in green Bay to
meet the candidates and bring us this report. Reporter.
>> Hello. How are you? >> I'm running for state
assembly. Yes. So wanted to introduce myself.
>> What's important to you? >> If I can ask, can I give you
a flier, John? Sure. Okay. I mean, I could tell you. Oh,
yeah. That's me. You got my vote. Well. Thank you. All
right. Well, good seeing you, man. All right. Take care.
>> All across the green Bay area, candidates for the
legislature are knocking doors, talking to voters and asking for
their support. But often, the first thing they have to do is
explain which district they live in under the new maps.
>> I've knocked a lot of doors in the last couple of months
here, and a lot of people aren't aren't aware of the changes yet,
and a lot of it is just educating them.
folks whose door I'm knocking on, they're aware that there's
new maps. They know about it. Do they know what number they're
in? No. Republican Pat Buckley are
facing off in the new 89th Assembly District.
>> My name is Ryan Spaude. I'll keep it real short and sweet.
I'm a candidate for state assembly.
Brown County district Attorney's office. He says the new district
fits the definition of a fair map.
contiguous, competitive >> Pat Buckley is a retired
police officer who sits on the Brown County Board.
>> My name is Pat Buckley. Hey, I'm running for the 89th
Assembly. Okay? And that's a new district created with
Ashwaubenon. decided not to run in this
district, Buckley was recruited to run on the county.
>> We're nonpartisan, and we're supposed to be nonpartisan. Even
though we have people that lean left and people that lean right.
And as the chair, it's my job to bring those people together to
help get things done. >> Hey, sir. Ben Franklin from a
couple doors down. How you doing?
Republican Ben Franklin is running against Democrat Kristy
Welch in the new 88th Assembly district.
>> My name is Kristy. I live over in East De Pere and was
stopping by today because I'm running for state assembly this
fall. Brown County Democrats, but only
got invested in politics in the last couple of years when Roe v
Wade was overturned. point, but a shoving point.
>> Franklin is a veteran and a small business owner who only
moved to Wisconsin in the last couple of years.
>> I'm new to politics myself. I'm not a career politician.
>> This is our first go around. The 88th and 89th Assembly seats
make up two thirds of the new 30th State Senate district. I'm
Jim Rafter. president, and I'm running for
state senate, which features Republican Jim Rafter and
Democrat Jamie Wall. >> I'm running for the Yeah, I
actually just live a few blocks up that way.
>> Wall is a business consultant.
get them together around the table, get the facts and, you
know, to solve problems together. And that's the kind of
mindset I'd want to bring to Madison.
president. Democrats and Republicans. We're
a nonpartisan board. I've done that for ten years, and all we
do is focus on the job. We don't focus on party.
>> There's no guarantee all three races go the same way. On
election day. But there are a number of striking similarities,
starting with the fact redistricting made all three
districts competitive open seats.
old map, it was it was rigged. It ran parts of Brown County
that really didn't have a whole lot to do with each other. And
now it's contiguous. It's compact.
hearing similar things at the doors.
>> Number one issue would be economics.
>> Economics? Yeah. Meaning employees in cost of living.
>> Both. Number one issue. I hear. Economy. Cost of living.
>> Democrats are hearing about costs, too. But not just the
price of eggs. >> People are concerned about
costs. And there's lots of different buckets of costs. But,
you know, costs at the grocery store. Housing costs. Childcare
costs. Oh, boy. >> Childcare. You know anybody
who's got young kids now? I mean, it's about like sending
your kids to college. >> Another topic at the doors is
abortion. it's been the whole Roe v. Wade.
>> It's a topic all three Republicans are looking to
avoid. tricky one.
and I think that you know, it's not as simple as left and right.
>> They all pitched a version of Republican Senator Ron Johnson's
idea of a statewide referendum on abortion.
>> I would recommend putting it up for a vote and a referendum,
so to speak, and then just let the people decide on if they
want to put a timeline on that. >> However, Republicans in the
legislature talked about this last session and never brought
the issue to a vote in either chamber. Democrats feel the
issue still resonates with voters across the political
spectrum. women and men that are unhappy
that that's what we're operating under now.
>> I think women should have the freedom to make choices and work
with their with their doctor and without their state senator
being in the middle of some of these, some of these decisions.
>> Surprisingly, none of the candidates were eager to talk
about Donald Trump. >> I will certainly vote for
Donald Trump. Do I think that his final word is gospel? No, I
don't, but I think that at the end of the day, we're all
conservatives going back to the primary.
>> You know, it wasn't necessarily my first choice in
the primary, but he's on he's on that part of the ticket. So
we'll look at the policies. I prefer to look at the policies.
>> I'm not getting involved at the federal level in those race.
I'm focused on the people of the 30th district.
Trump? decision and I'll vote for who I
vote for. >> For legislative Republicans
in a 5050 district disavowing Trump completely risks having
his supporters skip your race. But coming out as full MAGA
risks turning off moderates who don't like Trump but might vote
Republican down ballot somehow. >> I want to get that SOB in
jail. Who's that? Mr. Trump? >> Oh, in green Bay, Trump is
creating his own kind of swing voter.
I've talked to, particularly swing voters lite liberals like
conservatives that they're not necessarily going to vote a
straight ticket. And those are where I get in really meaningful
conversations. conversations as before Trump,
he was a Republican. >> There are so many people like
me in this district that's that there's so many folks I've lost.
Count how many people I normally vote for Republican, or I
consider myself a Republican, but I find myself voting for a
lot of Democrats lately. It's like, yes, like I was there in
the end, 50 over 50 districts often come down to which
candidate outworks the other and makes sure voters are energized
to get to the polls. >> It's going to be won by
whoever knocks the most doors, raises the most money, makes the
most phone calls, connects with voters.
time running for office. I'm excited. I'm energized. I think
there's going to be a lot of exhausted people, though. By
November 5th. >> A lot of people haven't
really thought about it yet, and haven't been putting that much
energy into it. I just haven't seen that much energy yet as
some of the pundits on TV like to portray.
still apathy? You know, there's still people who say, I'm tired
of polarization. I'm not even going to deal with politics.
Everyone's tired of polarization. I'm tired of
polarization. Big reason why I'm running.
about it. I mean, there's no shortage of politics in Brown
County. The downside of living in the epicenter of American
politics is you got to deal with a lot of politics, you know, and
that can be exhausting for people.
battleground or the battleground states, meaning that as green
Bay votes, we already know different places around the
state that they're going to vote red or blue. But this will
likely decide if Wisconsin goes red or blue.
>> Reporting from green Bay, I'm Zach Schultz for here.
>> And now for more on these stories and other issues facing
Wisconsin, visit our website at PBS wisconsin.org and then click
on the news tab to see all of our election coverage. Visit
Wisconsin vote.org. And finally, we leave you tonight with the
sad news of the passing of Heather L Ruiz, the director of
Wisconsin Public Media. Heather died unexpectedly on October
10th after undergoing cancer treatments for the last several
months. She started at WPM in 2010 and in 2022 became
executive director of the UW-Madison division. That with
the Educational Communications Board, provides statewide public
media through PBS Wisconsin and Wisconsin Public Radio.
Originally from rural central Wisconsin, she was a UW stout
and UW Law School graduate before joining WPM, she
practiced law in the Madison area. Heather is sadly missed by
staff here at PBS Wisconsin and Wpwr her kindness, skill and
vision guides us all. Heather Ruiz was 50 years old.
>> Funding for Here and Now is provided by the Focus Fund for
Journalism and Friends of PBS
Wisconsin.