% THAT'S GOOD FOR THE
% ADMINISTRATION OF ELECTIONS IN
% WISCONSIN.% >> WITH ELECTION
2024 ALREADY
% HEATING UP, THE LATEST STATEWIDE
% POLLING ON CANDIDATES, SITTING
% POLITICIANS AND ISSUES TAKES THE
% PUBLIC TEMPERATURE IN WISCONSIN.
% THE NEW MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL
% POLL FINDS SOME INTERESTING
% RESULTS.%HERE TO TALK ABOUT I
T, POLL
% DIRECTOR CHARLES FRANKLIN.
% THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.
% THE APPROVAL RATING JUMP IS
% INTERESTING.%>> IT'S QUITE A
JUMP.
% >> 57 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
% PROVE OF THE JOB HE'S DOING
% WHILE 38 PERCENT DISAPPROVE AND
% HIS APPROVAL RATING HAS GONE UP
% 11 POINTS SINCE THE LAST
% ELECTION.
% WHAT IN YOUR MIND EXPLAINS THIS?
% >> TWO THINGS.
% YOU'RE IN THE HEAT OF AN
% ELECTORAL BATTLE AND HE'S HAD A
% PRETTY GOOD LEGISLATIVE SESSION.
% HE CERTAINLY HASN'T GOT MOST OF
% WHAT HE WANTED BUT HE'S GOTTEN A
% FAIR BIT OF WHAT HE WANTED.
% SO I THINK THE SPRING HAS BEEN
% FAIRLY GOOD.
% IT'S ALSO STRIKING THAT HE'S THE
% ONE PERSON WHO'S REALLY HAD THIS
% SUBSTANTIAL RISE IN APPROVAL
% SINCE OCTOBER.
% OTHER RISES ARE MUCH MORE
% MODEST.
% SO I THINK WE HAVE TO GIVE
% CREDIT TO HIM.
% >> ON THE OTHER HAND, YOUR POLL
% SAYS 40 PERCENT SAY IT'S GOING
% IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
% COULD THAT BE SOMETHING OTHER
% THAN TONY EVERS?
% >> I THINK WE'RE SEEING THAT
% USED TO BE A MEASURE OF HOW GOOD
% A JOB THE INCUMBENT'S DOING, BUT
% NOW IF YOU'RE A DEMOCRAT YOU
% BLAME REPUBLICANS FOR WHY WE'RE
% HEADED OFF IN THE WRONG
% DIRECTION AND IF YOU'RE
% REPUBLICANS YOU BLAME THE
% DEMOCRATS FOR THE SAME THING.
% THERE'S A LOT OF ACROSS THE
% AISLE POINTING.
% WE SEE IN THE NATIONAL AND STATE
% NUMBERS.
% IT DOESN'T MEAN WHAT IT USED TO
% MEAN ABOUT WHETHER THINGS ARE
% GOOD OR BAD.
% >> IN THE GOP PRESIDENTIAL
% PRIMARY, AMONG REPUBLICANS AND
% THOSE WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN WHEN
% ACCOUNTING FOR ALL THE GOP
% CANDIDATES OUT THERE IT'S EVEN
% BETWEEN DONALD TRUMP AND RON
% DESANTIS, 31 PERCENT AND 30
% PERCENT.
% WITH 21 PERCENT UNDECIDED, THAT
% SEEMS LIKE A BIG NUMBER.
% WHEN ASKED WHO THEY WOULD PICK
% WHEN ONLY BETWEEN THOSE TWO, 57
% PERCENT CHOSE DeSANTIS OVER 41
% PERCENT FOR TRUMP.
% WHAT DO ALL THESE NUMBERS SAY?
% >> WELL, FIRST OF ALL, IT'S
% REALLY SURPRISING BECAUSE IN
% NATIONAL POLLING TRUMP IS
% LEADING DeSANTIS BY AT LEAST
% DOUBLE DIGITS AND THAT'S BEEN
% PRETTY CONSISTENT INCLUDING IN
% OUR NATIONAL POLLING.
% I WAS SURPRISED BY THAT NUMBER.
% BUT WHAT WE SEE IS THAT OF THE
% PEOPLE THAT WOULD LIKE SOMEBODY
% OTHER THAN DeSANTIS OR TRUMP OR
% ARE UNDECIDED, THEY GO 65 TO 75
% PERCENT TO DeSANTIS WHEN YOU ASK
% THE HEAD TO HEAD QUESTION.
% ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER OF THEM
% MOVE TO TRUMP.
% TRUMP IS GETTING A LOT OF
% SUPPORT FROM HIS BASE WITHIN THE
% PARTY BUT OF THE 30 PERCENT OF
% REPUBLICANS THAT DON'T LIKE
% TRUMP, HE GOT ZERO PERCENT ON
% THE HEAD-TO-HEAD QUESTION.
% SO IT'S NOT, YOU KNOW, THOSE
% THAT LIKE HIM STILL LIKE HIM
% QUITE A BIT BUT THERE IS THIS
% SEGMENT, A MINORITY OF 30
% PERCENT, THAT REALLY DON'T LIKE
% TRUMP AND ARE LOOKING FOR ANY
% ALTERNATIVE.%>> SO AS FOR EIT
HER OF THE TWO
% FRONTRUNNING REPUBLICAN
% CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT, YOUR
% POLL SHOWED A CLOSE MATCH-UP
% BETWEEN JOE BIDEN AND DeSANTIS
% WITH 4 PERCENT UNDECIDED IN THE
% HYPOTHETICAL MATCH-UP BETWEEN
% BIDEN, HE DOES MUCH BETTER
% AGAINST TRUMP, 52 PERCENT TO 43
% PERCENT.
% SO AS A CANDIDATE, DONALD TRUMP
% HAS SOME WORK TO DO IN THIS
% IMPORTANT SWING STATE.
% >> YES, I THINK THAT IS
% CERTAINLY THE CASE AND IT GOES
% PARTLY TO THE ELECTABILITY
% ARGUMENT.% IT ALSO GOES TO
THE FACT THAT
% TRUMP IS STILL GETTING 94 AND 95
% PERCENT OF THE REPUBLICAN VOTE
% WHEN HE'S MATCHED UP AGAINST
% BIDEN.%DeSANTIS GETS ALMOST E
XACTLY THE
% SAME REPUBLICAN SUPPORT THERE.
% SO IT'S NOT REPUBLICANS
% DESERTING TRUMP AT ALL.
% WHAT IT IS, IS THE INDEPENDENTS
% WHO LEAN A LITTLE BIT TO BIDEN
% VERSUS DeSANTIS AND MOVE HEAVILY
% TO BIDEN WHEN IT'S TRUMP.
% IT'S WINNING YOUR PRIMARY WITH A
% LOT OF TRUE BELIEVERS BUT MOVING
% ON TO A GENERAL ELECTION YOU
% NEED TO APPEAL TO INDEPENDENTS.
% AND AT LEAST THIS MONTH IN THIS
% SAMPLE, TRUMP IS DOING
% NOTICEABLY WORSE WITH
% INDEPENDENTS THAN DeSANTIS IS.
% REMEMBER, WE ARE IN THE FIELD
% THE DAY AND FOLLOWING THE
% INDICTMENT OF TRUMP.
% DIDN'T HURT HIM WITH REPUBLICANS
% BUT IT MAY BE THAT THAT'S PART
% OF WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THESE
% INDEPENDENTS AND LOOKING AHEAD
% TO THE GENERAL.
% >> INTERESTING CONTEXT.
% SO AS FOR SITTING U.S. SENATOR
% TAMMY BALDWIN, ALSO UP FOR
% RE-ELECTION, HER FAVORABILITY
% RATING TICKED UP 3 POINTS FROM
% LAST OCTOBER, NOW SITTING AT 40
% PERCENT FAVORABLE, 37 PERCENT
% UNFAVORABLE BUT 22 PERCENT HAVE
% NOT HEARD ENOUGH ABOUT HER.
% SHE MUST STILL BE FORMIDABLE
% THOUGH BECAUSE NOBODY HAS
% FORMALLY DECLARED AGAINST HER.
% >> THAT'S RIGHT.
% THAT'S 22 PERCENT IS IN LINE
% WITH WHERE SHE HAS BEEN THE LAST
% TWO OR THREE YEARS.
% RON JOHNSON IS USUALLY IN THE
% 30s.
% THOUGH WHEN ELECTIONS COME YOU
% GET THAT NUMBER DOWN TO 10
% PERCENT THAT DON'T KNOW ENOUGH.
% IT'S A BIG ELECTION EFFECT.
% WHEN WE ASKED ABOUT FOUR
% POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN CHALLENGERS
% BETWEEN 50 AND 85 PERCENT DIDN'T
% KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT ANY OF THOSE.
% UNTIL SOMEBODY OFFICIALLY GETS
% IN AND THE RACE HEATS UP AND
% THEY'RE CAMPAIGNING, NO
% CHALLENGER IS GOING TO LOOK VERY
% GOOD ON THE NAME RECOGNITION
% SIDE AND IN PERSPECTIVE BALDWIN
% HAS A LITTLE ADVANTAGE OF BEING
% WELL KNOWN BUT THE CHALLENGERS
% WHEN THEY DO GET IN WILL BUILD
% RECOGNITION OVER THE NEXT 18