% THANK YOU.
% >> THANK YOU FOR THE
% OPPORTUNITY.
% >> INFLATION REMAINS HIGH FOR
% THINGS LIKE FOOD AND FUEL.
% IN RESPONSE, THE FED CONTINUES
% TO HIKE INTEREST RATES WHICH HAS
% COOLED THE HOME BUYING MARKET.
% BUT CONSUMERS CONTINUE TO SPEND
% AND THE JOB MARKET IS STILL HOT.
% THOSE ARE SOME OF THE
% OBSERVATIONS FROM OUR NEXT GUEST
% HERE TO TALK WITH US ABOUT
% WISCONSIN'S ECONOMIC CONDITION
% AND THE QUESTION EVERYBODY WANTS
% TO KNOW, IS THERE A RECESSION ON
% THE HORIZON?
% KEVIN BAHR IS PROFESSOR OF
% FINANCE OF UW STEVENS POINT.
% THANKS VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US.
% >> MY PLEASURE, THANK YOU.
% >> WHAT IS THE CONDITION OF THE
% OVERALL ECONOMY RIGHT NOW?
% ARE WE SLOWING DOWN AND SLIDING
% TOWARD A RECESSION?
% >> THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
% NEXT YEAR IS THAT THE UNITED
% STATES WILL SLIP INTO A
% RECESSION.%BUT THE GENERAL CO
NSENSUS IS
% ALSO THAT THE RECESSION SHOULD
% BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AND
% RELATIVELY MINOR.
% THAT IS KEY IN YES, PEOPLE WILL
% GET HURT BUT IT IS NOT SUPPOSED
% TO BE AS WHAT THE RECESSION WAS
% IN 2000 AND 2008 AND THE EARLY
% 198 0S.
% >> THAT IS COMFORTING.
% DO THE RECENT LAYOFFS IN THE
% TECH INDUSTRY SPELL ECONOMIC
% DOWNTURN RIGHT NOW?
% >> I THINK RECENT LAYOFFS IN THE
% TECH INDUSTRY, THOSE ARE
% DIFFERENT FROM WHAT'S GOING ON
% WITH THE REST OF THE ECONOMY.
% THE RECENT LAYOFFS IN THE TECH
% INDUSTRY.
% THEY HAVE THEIR OWN SPECIFIC
% SORT OF COMPANY AND INDUSTRY
% ISSUES.
% THERE WILL BE A SLOWDOWN OVERALL
% IN THE UNITED STATES ECONOMY AND
% YOU CAN EXPECT JOB LOSSES AND
% UNEMPLOYMENT TO GO UP.
% BUT THE TECH INDUSTRY IS A
% LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT.
% THEY HAVE THEIR OWN SPECIFIC
% ISSUES TO WORK THROUGH.
% >> RIGHT NOW THE OVERALL JOB
% MARKET EVEN IN WISCONSIN IS
% STILL SUPER HOT?
% >> THE JOB MARKET IS INCREDIBLY
% HOT.
% IN OCTOBER WE HAD 153.3 MILLION
% PEOPLE WORKING IN THE UNITED
% STATES.
% THAT'S MORE THAN AT ANY OTHER
% TIME IN THE HISTORY OF THE
% UNITED STATES.
% WAGE GROWTH IN AUGUST WAS 6.7%
% AT AN ANNUALIZED RATE.
% IT WENT DOWN TO 6.3% IN
% SEPTEMBER.
% IT REFLECTS THE HOT LABOR MARKET
% AND IN OCTOBER THERE WERE TWO
% JOB OPENINGS FOR EVERY
% UNEMPLOYED PERSON.
% SO ALL THOSE FACTORS COMBINE
% INTO A VERY HOT LABOR MARKET.
% >> THE FACE OF INFLATION, HOW IS
% IT THAT CONSUMER SPENDING IS
% HOLDING?
% >> WELL, I THINK PART OF THE
% REASON CONSUMER SPENDING IS
% HOLDING IS BECAUSE THE JOB
% MARKET HAS BEEN SO HOT.
% YOU'VE GOT RECORD EMPLOYMENT
% LEVELS.
% WAGES GOING UP.
% SO THE JOB MARKET HAS REALLY
% KIND OF FUELED CONSUMER
% SPENDING.
% THE INCREASE IN THE INTEREST
% RATES BY THE FED LAST TWO
% QUARTERS, INVESTMENT SPENDING
% HAS DECLINED IN THE UNITED
% STATES.
% CONSUMPTION SPENDING HAS
% INCREASED EVER SINCE THE SECOND
% QUARTER OF 2020.
% IT HAS BEEN UP, UP AND AWAY WITH
% CONSUMER SPENDING.
% IT IS LOWER NOW THAN WHAT IT HAD
% BEEN LAST YEAR BUT STILL
% INCREASING.%THE RATE OF GROW
TH IS LOWER NOW
% THAN LAST YEAR.
% >> DOES THAT SUGGEST THAT
% INFLATION REALLY ISN'T HITTING
% PEOPLE?
% >> I THINK INFLATION IS HITTING
% PEOPLE, BUT THEY STILL HAVE
% MONEY TO SPEND.
% AND I WOULD POINT OUT THAT
% INFLATION RIGHT NOW, THIS IS
% GLOBAL.
% A GLOBAL ISSUE.
% INFLATION THE VARYING BETWEEN 7
% AND 10% IN CANADA, AUSTRALIA,
% UNITED KINGDOM AND GERMANY AND
% ITALY
% IT'S A GLOBAL ISSUE.
% A LOT OF THE FACTORS AFFECTING
% THOSE -- THAT INFLATION
% WORLDWIDE RELATES TO THE WAR IN
% UKRAINE AND SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES.
% >> SO HOLIDAY RETAIL IS ALWAYS
% AN INDICATOR.
% WHAT ARE THE EXPECTATIONS FOR
% THAT?%>> THAT'S GOING TO BE
SOMETHING
% VERY INTERESTING TO WATCH.
% IN OCTOBER RETAIL SALES
% INCREASED.
% SO THERE ARE DIFFERENT FORECASTS
% FOR RETAIL SALES.
% WHEN YOU START GETTING INTO
% FORECASTING THE ECONOMY NEXT
% YEAR AND WHETHER OR NOT YOU'LL
% HAVE A RECESSION, IT IS ALMOST
% LIKE DOING A LONG-RANGE WEATHER
% FORECAST.
% YOU ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IT WILL
% BE CLOUDY AND NOT STORM, BUT IT
% MIGHT RAIN, IT MIGHT NOT RAIN.
% AND IN ANY EVENT, THE ECONOMY IS
% GOING TO SLOW.
% HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAST IT
% SLOWS, THAT'S STILL SUBJECT TO
% QUESTION.
% >> WELL, WE APPRECIATE YOUR
% PROGNOSTICATIONS AND YOUR
% EXPERTISE.
% KEVIN BAHR, PROFESSOR OF FINANCE
% AT UW STEVENS POINT, THANK YOU
% VERY MUCH.
% >> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
% >> FOR MORE ON THIS AND OTHER
% ISSUES FACING WISCONSIN, VISIT