% THANKS FOR YOUR EXPERTISE.
% >> THANK YOU.
% >> THIS WEEK MARKS THE
% CELEBRATION OF UKRAINE'S
% INDEPENDENCE IN 1991.
% AND CAME ON THE SAME DAY THAT
% MARKED SIX MONTHS SINCE RUSSIA
% INVADED UKRAINE.
% IN GREEN BAY, DOZENS GATHERED TO
% SHOW SUPPORT AND SOLIDARITY.
% THE U.S. HAS SENT MORE THAN
% $10 BILLION OF MILITARY AID TO
% UKRAINE WITH BILLIONS MORE TO
% COME.
% BUT THE HUMAN TOLL IN DEATH AND
% DISPLACEMENT AND THE RAVAGING OF
% THE LANDSCAPE, WHEN AND HOW WILL
% IT END?
% WE CHECK IN WITH PROFESSOR
% ANDREY IVANOV, SPECIALTY IS
% RUSSIA AND THE SOVIET UNION IN
% UW-PLATTEVILLE, AND IS ALSO
% UKRAINIAN, AND HE AND HIS FAMILY
% MADE A HARROWING ESCAPE.
% HOW IS YOUR FAMILY DOING?
% >> THEY ARE FINE.
% SOME OF THEM ARE HERE, AND
% OTHERS ARE STILL WAITING TO COME
% FROM GERMANY, SO I'M -- I'M
% AWAITING THEIR ARRIVAL.
% >> WHAT IS IT LIKE FOR CIVILIANS
% STILL INSIDE UKRAINE AT THIS
% TIME?
% >> IT IS VERY DIFFICULT.
% THE ECONOMIC PART IS VERY
% DIFFICULT.
% LOGISTIC PART, THE
% TRANSPORTATION PART.
% THE PANIC OF FEBRUARY AND MARCH
% HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED IN PARTS OF
% WESTERN UKRAINE AND PARTS OF
% NORTHERN UKRAINE, BUT IN THE
% SOUTH AND IN THE EAST THE
% SITUATION HAS WORSENED
% CONSIDERABLY WITH A LOT OF
% DESTRUCTION AND SHELLING AND
% ACTIVE MILITARY CAMPAIGN THAT'S
% STILL GOING ON.
% SO WE ARE TALKING ABOUT
% ESSENTIALLY NOW THE SITUATION
% INSIDE UKRAINE, YOU HAVE KIND OF
% TWO UKRAINES.
% YOU HAVE UKRAINE THAT HAS
% LARGELY BEEN SORT OF NOT
% AFFECTED BY THE DESTRUCTION,
% IT'S STILL AFFECTED BY THE
% MISSILES, BUT THEN THE EAST AND
% IN THE SOUTH YOU HAVE PEOPLE
% LOSING THEIR HOMES, PEOPLE
% LOSING THEIR LOVED ONES, PEOPLE
% LOSING THEIR LIVES AND MASSIVE
% EVACUATIONS ARE STILL CONTINUING
% FROM THE EAST AND THE SOUTH AS
% WE SPEAK RIGHT NOW.
% >> I'VE READ THAT RUSSIA NOW
% OCCUPIES 20% OF UKRAINE.
% I THINK WHEN RUSSIA FIRST
% INVADED OBSERVERS THOUGHT THEY
% WOULD ROLL IN AND CAPTURE
% UKRAINE IN FULL.
% WHAT DID YOU THINK AT THE TIME?
% >> WELL, WHEN THE -- WHEN THE
% INVASION HAPPENED, I WAS -- I
% COULDN'T BELIEVE WHAT WAS GOING
% ON, FRANKLY.
% MY FAMILY WAS AFFECTED AND IN
% THE MIDST, THE AREA THAT
% SUFFERED BOMBARDMENT AND HAD TO
% ESCAPE.%SO FOR ME THIS WAS S
OMETHING
% THAT AFFECTED ME PERSONALLY, AND
% I EXPECTED UKRAINE TO PUT UP
% VERY FIERCE RESISTANCE, EITHER
% THROUGH KIND OF INSURGENCY
% GUERILLA CAMPAIGN IF RUSSIANS
% WERE TO TAKE PARTS OF THE
% TERRITORY OR ACTIVE WAR EFFORTS,
% AND IT'S BEEN A COMBINATION OF
% BOTH, AND I'M VERY GLAD THAT THE
% RESISTANCE CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN
% SUCCESSFUL IN MANY PARTS OF
% UKRAINE BUT I'M ALSO VERY
% DISHEARTENED THAT THE RUSSIANS
% WERE ABLE TO MAKE SO MUCH
% PROGRESS IN OTHER PARTS OF
% UKRAINE AND THE SOUTH AND THE
% EAST IN PARTICULAR.
% >> HOW DO YOU THINK THIS WILL
% PROGRESS?
% >> I DON'T HAVE A CRYSTAL BALL.
% I'M NOT A NOSTRADAMUS.
% IT'S HARD TO TELL.
% THE LONG-TERM SCENARIO WITH
% WESTERN SUPPORT, WITH WESTERN
% AND ESPECIALLY AMERICAN HELP
% LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR UKRAINE.
% AND IT LOOKS VERY BAD FOR
% RUSSIA.
% THE SHORT-TERM SCENARIO, TALKING
% ABOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS
% WITH WINTER COMING AND THE GAS
% AND OIL CRISIS AND ENERGY
% CRISIS, THE SHORT-TERM SCENARIO
% LOOKS VERY DIFFICULT FOR
% UKRAINE, AND SORT OF FAVORS
% RUSSIA, AND SO WE HAVE A
% LONG-TERM AND A SHORT-TERM
% SCENARIO.%THE QUESTION IS CA
N THE WEST
% REMAIN STEADY IN ITS HELP TO
% UKRAINIAN FIGHT FOR
% INDEPENDENCE, AND FOR HOW LONG.
% AND THAT WILL REALLY DECIDE THE
% OUTCOME OF THE WAR.
% >> MORE BROADLY, WHY DOES
% VLADIMIR PUTIN WANT UKRAINE WHEN
% IT SO CLEARLY DOES NOT WANT HIM?
% >> WELL, IT'S KIND OF A POST
% IMPERIAL SYNDROME, YOU KNOW.
% EMPIRES COLLAPSE AND THEN YOU
% HAVE NEW ENTITIES EMERGE.
% I'M A HISTORIAN, SO I TALK LIKE
% THIS.
% SO YOU KNOW, THERE ARE A LOT OF
% PEOPLE IN RUSSIA WHO SUPPORT
% PUTIN'S NEOIMPERIAL AMBITIONS.
% THEY WANT THE EMPIRE BACK.
% WHETHER THIS IS THE OLD SOVIET
% UNION OR THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE, BUT
% THIS HAS HAPPENED BEFORE IN
% WORLD HISTORY, WITH GERMANY
% AFTER WORLD WAR I, OR HUNGARY
% AFTER WORLD WAR I AND SO ON, AND
% SO THAT IS SOMETHING THAT IS ONE
% OF THE REASONING THAT I THINK
% THAT, YOU KNOW, PUTIN WANTS TO
% RECREATE AN EMPIRE OR IMPERIAL
% SPACE THAT WAS LOST AFTER 1991,
% AND SOME MAY ARGUE LOST AFTER
% 1917.
% >> SO, REPORTEDLY AT THIS POINT
% IN THE DESTRUCTION IT WILL COST
% $200 BILLION TO REBUILD
% UKRAINE'S INFRASTRUCTURE AND
% HOUSING.
% WHAT IS IT LIKE TO SEE THE
% DEVASTATION OF YOUR HOMELAND AND
% ITS PEOPLE?
% >> IT'S VERY -- VERY
% DISHEARTENING, VERY DIFFICULT TO
% SEE THE PICTURES.
% I'VE SEEN PICTURES OF HOUSE OF
% MY SISTER THAT RECEIVED A SHELL
% IN ONE OF THE AREAS OF THAT
% APARTMENT HOUSE, AND SO WHEN I
% SEE THAT, OF COURSE THIS IS
% SOMETHING THAT I, YOU KNOW, THAT
% RELATES PERSONALLY AND IT'S, YOU
% KNOW, A MIXTURE OF GRIEF AND
% ANGER AND QUESTIONS AND SO ON.
% BUT I -- I THINK THAT UKRAINE,
% WHICH HAS ENDURED DESTRUCTION
% DURING WORLD WAR I AND WORLD WAR
% II WILL RISE AGAIN LIKE A
% PHOENIX FROM THE ASHES AND FROM
% THE RUBBLE OF THIS HORRIBLE
% ASSAULT, THIS HORRIBLE INVASION.
% AND SO YES, IT WILL BE, YOU
% KNOW, THE DESTRUCTION IS THERE
% AND IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
% REBUILD UKRAINE, BUT YOU KNOW,
% SOMEBODY WHO HAS COME FROM THERE
% AND YOU KNOW, HEARING STORIES OF
% MY PARENTS AND GRANDPARENTS AND
% GREAT GRANDPARENTS WHO ENDURED
% WORLD WAR II, YES, DESTRUCTION
% IS HORRIBLE BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
% TO REBUILD AFTER DESTRUCTION.
% >> PROFESSOR IVANOV, THANK YOU.