% >> FRESH OFF THE PRIMARY
% ELECTION, VOTERS ARE TURNING
% THEIR ATTENTION TOWARD THE
% CANDIDATES AND ISSUES THAT WILL
% MOTIVATE THEM TO GET TO THE
% POLLS IN NOVEMBER.
% CHARLES FRANKLIN, DIRECTOR OF
% THE MARQUETTE UNIVERSITY LAW
% SCHOOL POLL, JOINS US NOW WITH
% HIS LATEST RESULTS AND THANKS
% FOR BEING HERE, CHARMS.
% >> THANKS, THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
% >> STARTING WITH THE RACE FOR
% GOVERNOR, INCUMBENT DEMOCRAT
% TONY EVERS HAS A TWO-POINT LEAD
% ON MICHELS, NOW TIM MICHELS IS
% REFUTING YOUR NUMBERS AND IS
% QUOTED AS SAYING HE BELIEVES
% HE'S ACTUALLY UP 5 TO 10 POINTS
% ON EVERS.
% WHAT IS YOUR RESPONSE TO THAT?
% >> WELL, I STAND BEHIND OUR
% POLL.%FIRST OF ALL, WE ARE
% TRANSPARENT, ALL OF OUR
% QUESTIONS, ALL OF OUR RESULTS,
% ALL OF OUR METHODOLOGY ARE
% ONLINE, ANYONE IS WELCOME TO
% LOOK AT IT AND BELIEVE IT OR
% NOT, BELIEVE IT OR REFUTE IT.
% BUT CAMPAIGNS ARE ABSOLUTELY
% FREE TO SAY WHATEVER THEY WANT
% ABOUT THE POLLING RESULTS.
% SO I WELCOME MR. MICHELS'
% COMMENTS AS I WELCOME THE
% COMMENTS OF ANY CANDIDATE, BUT I
% DO MY BUSINESS AND I'M
% TRANSPARENT ABOUT IT AND UPFRONT
% ABOUT IT.
% >> ALL RIGHT.
% BY YOUR POLLING, IT IS PRETTY
% TIGHT.
% HOW DOES THE INDEPENDENT VOTE
% FACTOR IN THIS RACE?
% >> WELL, IN THE GOVERNOR'S RACE
% INDEPENDENTS ARE LEANING A BIT
% TOWARD TONY EVERS, PARTISANS ARE
% FOR BOTH CANDIDATES, THAT HAS
% NOT CHANGED.
% TIM MICHELS SEEMS TO HAVE GOTTEN
% A FIVE-POINT BOUNCE UP AFTER THE
% PRIMARY.
% IT WAS A SEVEN-POINT EVERS' LEAD
% IN JUNE AND NOW IT'S ONLY A
% TWO-POINT LEAD, SO MICHELS HAS
% BENEFITTED BY FIVE POINTS ON
% THAT MARGIN FROM JUNE 'TIL NOW.
% IT'S AN GOOD EXAMPLE OF HOW EVEN
% A HARD FOUGHT PRIMARY CAN
% ACTUALLY HELP A CANDIDATE.
% >> YEAH.
% HOW MIGHT DONALD TRUMP'S
% ENDORSEMENT OF MICHELS HELP OR
% HURT HIM, DO YOU THINK?
% >> WELL, THAT'S HARD TO SAY.
% WITHIN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, 77%
% HAVE A FAVORABLE VIEW OF DONALD
% TRUMP, SO IT'S CERTAINLY AN
% ASSET WITHIN THE PARTY.
% BUT TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY, MORE OR
% LESS, HAVE AN UNFAVORABLE VIEW
% OF TRUMP IN THE PUBLIC AT LARGE.
% SO SHIFTING FROM A VERY POSITIVE
% EFFECT IN THE PRIMARY TO A
% POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE EFFECT IN
% THE GENERAL IS AN INTERESTING
% PROBLEM AND TRADEOFF FOR
% TRUMP-SUPPORTED CANDIDATES.
% >> AND THERE IS A LOT GOING ON
% RIGHT NOW IN REGARD TO THE
% FORMER PRESIDENT, SO THAT COULD
% SHAPE THINGS, I WOULD IMAGINE,
% GOING FORWARD AS WELL.
% OR MAYBE NOT.
% BUT IN THE U.S. SENATE RACE,
% DEMOCRAT MANDELA BARNES IS UP
% SEVEN POINTS ON INCUMBENT
% REPUBLICAN RON JOHNSON.
% BUT AS YOU KNOW, JOHNSON HAS
% WEATHERED THIS KIND OF POLLING
% BEFORE AND THEN WON.
% WHAT ABOUT THAT?
% >> ABSOLUTELY.
% ALSO, LET ME POINT OUT THAT
% BARNES WAS LEADING BY TWO BEFORE
% AND NOW BY SEVEN.
% HE ALSO GOT A FIVE-POINT BOUNCE
% FROM THE PRIMARY, SO BOTH THE
% REPUBLICAN AND THE DEMOCRATIC
% PRIMARY WINNERS BENEFITTED, I
% THINK, FROM THEIR PRIMARIES.
% AS FOR SENATOR JOHNSON, YES, HE
% WAS BEHIND IN 2016, BUT HIS
% CAMPAIGN STEADILY IMPROVED OVER
% THE SPRING AND THEN CLOSED THE
% GAP THROUGHOUT THE FALL SO A
% GREAT EXAMPLE OF EFFECTIVE
% CAMPAIGN THAT ACCOMPLISHED ITS
% GOALS.%THE QUESTION IS, CAN H
E DO IT
% AGAIN.
% >> ANYTHING ELSE STAND OUT ABOUT
% THE RACE AND THE POLL NUMBERS?
% >> HERE AGAIN, THE PARTISANS ARE
% SUPER STRONGLY ALIGNED BUT
% BARNES IS VERY POSITIVE WITH
% INDEPENDENTS, GETTING A BIGGER
% SHARE OF THE VOTE WITH
% INDEPENDENTS THAN EVERS IS IN
% THE GOVERNOR'S RACE.
% SO, THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
% BARNES IS SEVEN-POINT LEAD AND
% EVERS' TWO, COMING PRIMARILY
% FROM THE INDEPENDENTS MORE PRO
% BARNES.
% TROUBLE FOR BARNES, 41% DON'T
% KNOW MUCH ABOUT HIM.
% 34% DON'T KNOW MUCH ABOUT
% MICHELS.
% BOTH OF THOSE CANDIDATES STILL
% HAVE TO INTRODUCE THEMSELVES TO
% A FAIR CHUNK OF THE VOTERS.
% >> JOHNSON'S FAVORABLES ARE
% UPSIDE DOWN, BARNES MORE
% FAVORABLE THAN UNFAVORABLE.
% ANY KIND OF AN INDICATOR AT THIS
% POINT?
% >> IMPORTANT INDICATOR IN THAT
% SENATOR JOHNSON HAS BEEN
% UNDERWATER MORE UNFAVORABLE THAN
% FAVORABLE FOR MANY MONTHS, OVER
% A YEAR, MORE THAN THAT.
% AND HAS NOT SEEN MUCH UPWARD
% MOVEMENT.
% ALSO, ONLY 15% SAY THEY LACK AN
% OPINION OF JOHNSON, SO IT'S A
% SMALLER POOL OF VOTERS FOR HIM
% TO MOVE.
% IT'S A MUCH BIGGER POOL FOR
% BARNES TO MOVE BUT THAT'S A
% DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD.
% HE COULD MOVE THEM IN HIS FAVOR
% OR HAVE THEM MOVED AGAINST HIM
% BY THE JOHNSON CAMPAIGN, SO STAY
% TUNED FOR THAT ACTION.
% >> SO YOU'VE SAID ONE OF THE
% MORE STRIKING RESULTS IN YOUR
% POLL IS HOW DEMOCRATS AND
% REPUBLICANS ASSIGN VERY
% DIFFERENT PRIORITIES TO ISSUES.
% TAKE, FOR EXAMPLE, ON THE ISSUE
% OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IT'S
% DEMOCRATS TOP ISSUE AND
% REPUBLICANS LEAST IMPORTANT
% ISSUE.
% DOES THIS AGAIN SHOW THE
% ENTRENCHED PARTISAN
% POLARIZATION?
% >> IT ABSOLUTELY DOES AND IT'S
% THE VERY DIFFERENT EMPHASIS
% THAT'S BEING GIVEN.
% CLIMATE CHANGE STANDS OUT
% BECAUSE IT REALLY WAS THE NUMBER
% ONE ISSUE FOR DEMOCRATS AND THE
% DEAD LAST OF NINE AMONG
% REPUBLICANS SO THERE IS A HUGE
% DIFFERENCE IN EMPHASIS ON THAT.
% BUT THERE ARE OTHERS WHERE THERE
% IS A SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCE AS
% WELL.
% >> SO, ON THE ISSUE OF
% OVERTURNING ROE, FOR EXAMPLE, IT
% STANDS OUT TO ME THAT 28% OF
% REPUBLICANS OPPOSE THAT AND 62%
% OF INDEPENDENTS OPPOSE IT?
% HOW DOES THAT PLAY IN EVENTUAL
% VOTES FOR CANDIDATES?
% >> I THINK ON THE ABORTION
% ISSUE, YOU SEE A SOLID MAJORITY
% IN THE STATE THAT WISHES THE
% COURT HAD NOT OVERTURNED ROE.
% YOU ALSO SEE THIS NEAR MIRROR
% IMAGE BETWEEN REPUBLICANS AND
% INDEPENDENTS, 62% OF REPUBLICANS
% FAVOR THE OVERTURNING, 62% OF
% INDEPENDENTS OPPOSE THAT
% OVERTURNING.
% DEMOCRATS ARE NEARLY UNANIMOUS
% ON THE ISSUE IN OPPOSITION.
% >> SO INFLATION TOUCHES
% EVERYONE, BUT IT'S IMPORTANT TO
% 91% OF REPUBLICANS AND JUST 42%
% OF DEMOCRATS.
% IS THIS BECAUSE IT'S THE NUMBER
% O
% ONE CAMPAIGN ISSUE HITTING JOE
% BIDEN?
% >> I THINK IT'S THE NUMBER ONE
% ISSUE, TAILOR MADE FOR ANY
% INCUMBENT PRESIDENT, BLAME THEM
% FOR INFLATION NO MATTER WHAT THE
% PARTY IS.
% IT'S BEEN THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
% IN EVERY POLL WE HAVE DONE SINCE
% LAST AUGUST.
% >> IT'S PRETTY EASY TO
% UNDERSTAND AND GLOBALLY
% EXPERIENCED, I GUESS.
% ON PARENTAL LEAVE, IT'S ALSO
% SURPRISING TO ME THAT 65% OF
% REPUBLICANS FAVOR IT.
% WHAT DO YOU SURMISE THAT'S
% ABOUT?
% >> I WAS SURPRISED BY THIS.
% IN THE REPUBLICAN GUBERNATORIAL
% DEBATE, ALL THREE TALKED ABOUT
% PARENTAL LEAVE BUT NOT IN
% SPECIFIC DETAIL, I THOUGHT IT
% WAS IMPORTANT TO ASK ABOUT IT,
% GENERALLY REPUBLICANS HAVE
% OPPOSED REQUIRING BUSINESSES TO
% OFFER PAID PARENTAL LEAVE.
% BUT SOLID MAJORITIES OF EVERY
% PARTISAN GROUP ARE IN FAVOR, I
% HOPE WE WILL SEE MORE OF THAT IN
% THE CAMPAIGN AND AFTER IT'S
% DEBATED.
% >> BACK TO THE CANDIDATES AND
% THEIR CAMPAIGNS, HOW ROUGH AND
% TUMBLE ARE THESE TWO STATEWIDE
% RACES GOING TO BE, DO YOU THINK?
% >> OH, I THINK EXTREMELY SO.
% BOTH THE SIZE OF THE PEOPLE THAT
% DON'T KNOW EITHER TIM MICHELS OR
% MANDELA BARNES IS AN INVITATION
% FOR THE OTHER CAMPAIGN TO TRY TO
% PAINT A NEGATIVE PICTURE.
% AND A STRUGGLE FOR THE CANDIDATE
% TO MAKE THEMSELVES LOOK POSITIVE
% WHILE ALSO CRITICIZING THE
% INCUMBENT THAT THEY ARE RUNNING
% AGAINST.
% NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNING IS HARDLY
% ANYTHING NEW, BUT I THINK WE ARE
% LOOKING AT TWO HARD-FOUGHT
% BATTLES ON BOTH SIDES.