>> EACH YEAR AROUND LABOR DAY,
ECONOMISTS AT UW-MADISON PUT OUT
A REPORT TITLED "THE STATE OF
WORKING WISCONSIN."
THIS YEAR, AS THE STATE RECOVERS
FROM THE LOSSES ENDURED DURING
THE COVID PANDEMIC, THINGS ARE A
LITTLE SHAKY DUE TO SURGES
CAUSED BY THE DELTA VARIANT.
FOR MORE ON FORWARD PROGRESS FOR
THE LABOR ECONOMY AS WELL AS THE
BACKWARD STEPS INCURRED, WE TURN
ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR OF COWS,
FORMERLY KNOWN AS THE CENTER ON
WISCONSIN STRATEGY AT
UW-MADISON, LAURA DRESSER.
THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.
>> THANKS SO MUCH FOR HAVING ME.
>> WELL, AS YOU REPORT, COVID
OBVIOUSLY REALLY PUMMELED THE
WORKFORCE.
YOUR REPORT NOTES THAT 114,000
JOBS WERE LOST WITH THE HARDEST
HIT BEING IN THE LEISURE AND
HOSPITALITY SECTOR, WITH NEARLY
50,000 JOBS LOST, AND WHERE
EMPLOYMENT IS STILL DOWN 17.6%.
HOW HISTORIC ARE THESE LOSSES?
>> WELL, THE LOSSES IN APRIL OF
2020 WERE HISTORIC, MASSIVE
CONTRACTION, AND REINSTANT KIND
OF RESTRUCTURING.
THAT 114,000 THAT WE'RE BEHIND,
THAT'S HOW MANY FEWER JOBS WE
HAD IN JULY COMPARED TO FEBRUAR.
THAT'S AFTER A LOT OF MONTHS OF
PROGRESS, RIGHT, SO THAT THE
ORIGINAL CONTRACTION WAS INTENSE
AND DEEP, AND LEADER IN
HOSPITALITY ACTUALLY IN APRIL OF
2020 WAS DOWN 50%, AND HAS COME
BACK EACH -- SLOWLY AND UNEVENLY
TO THIS LEVEL OF BEING ALMOST
20% BEHIND STILL WHERE IT WAS IN
FEBRUARY 2020.
>> SO IT'S STILL NEARLY 20%
BEHIND.
ONE QUESTION OFTEN ASKED IS, WHY
DIDN'T THOSE WORKERS RETURN?
>> WELL, ONE THING, YOU CAN SEE
ACROSS THE STATE IS THAT SOME
RESTAURANTS DIDN'T SURVIVE THE
CONTRACTION, RIGHT?
SOME JOBS IN THE INDUSTRY ARE
GONE.
SOME WORKERS DIDN'T RETURN
BECAUSE LAST YEAR, THEIR KIDS
WERE DOING SCHOOL ONLINE AND IT
WAS DIFFICULT TO FIND CHILD
CARE.
AND ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU'RE
GETTING INDUSTRY -- RESTAURANT
INDUSTRY WAGES, THE CHILD CARE
SITUATION CAN BE COMPLETELY
IMPOSSIBLE AND WITH THE ONLINE
LEARNING, THE FAMILY DEMANDS
WERE HIGH.
BUT I THINK ALSO SOME PEOPLE USE
THE CHANCE TO MOVE INTO
DIFFERENT SORTS OF JOBS, JOBS
WITH LESS EXPOSURE, RIGHT?
THE IDEA OF BEING EXPOSED AT
WORK THROUGH CUSTOMERS OR
CO-WORKERS BECAME MORE
THREATENING.
THE IDEA OF NOT GETTING HEALTH
INSURANCE FROM YOUR JOB BECAME A
BIGGER NEGATIVE.
AND SO THERE ARE ALL SORTS OF
WAYS THAT WORKERS COULD
RECONSIDER WORK, BUT ALSO JUST
THIS INTENSE CONTRACTION THAT
JOBS DIDN'T EXIST.
AND SO BOTH THINGS ARE GOING ON
AND IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER
BOTH.
>> NOW YOU SAY IN YOUR REPORTING
THAT A WEAK LABOR MARKET TIPS
THE BALANCE OF POWER TOWARD
EMPLOYERS.
I WOULD THINK IT WOULD BE
EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE, ESPECIALLY
AS EMPLOYERS REPORT BEING SO
DESPERATE FOR WORKERS?
>> I KNOW, AT THIS POINT IN
THE -- I MEAN, IN THE ORIGINAL
PART OF THE INTERACTION, I WOULD
SAY IT WAS CLEAR THERE WAS A LOT
OF SLACK, THERE WERE A LOT MORE
WORKERS THAN JOBS.
I THINK AT THIS POINT, THERE'S
JUST STRONG EVIDENCE THAT THE
BALANCE IS TIPPED IN THE
DIRECTION OF WORKERS FOR SURE.
AND YOU CAN SEE THAT IN THE KIND
OF RELATIVELY WE'RE NOT BACK TO
FEBRUARY 2020 UNEMPLOYMENT
RATES, BUT WE'RE BACK CLOSE TO
THAT.
AND YOU CAN SEE THAT IN THE
RECRUITING NOTICES THAT YOU GET
IN THE MAIL OR THE SIGNS ON THE
DOORS, AND I THINK THIS IS AN
IMPORTANT MOMENT TO TRY AND SEE
THE UNSUSTAINABILITY OF THE WAY
THOSE JOBS WERE STRUCTURED
BEFORE THE PANDEMIC TO SEE WHAT
IT MEANS TO HAVE JOBS WITH BAD
HOURS, LOW WAGES, NO PAID LEAVE
IN THE CONTEXT OF A PANDEMIC,
THE PEOPLE WHO ARE SERVING YOUR
FOOD DON'T -- IN MOST RESTAURANT
WORK SITES DON'T GET PAID IF
THEY GET SICK AND STAY HOME.
SO THAT'S A PRETTY BIG INCENTIVE
TO COME TO WORK SICK.
SO ALL THESE THINGS KIND OF GOT
REVEALED, LIKE WHAT'S AN
ESSENTIAL WORKER, AND THEN HOW
DO WE RESTRUCTURE THAT WORK TO
MAKE IT -- TO MAKE LIFE IN THOSE
JOBS SUSTAINABLE.
>> AS YOU JUST SAID, OUR
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS DOWN, AND
THIS SUMMER IN YOUR REPORT, YOU
NOTED THAT WISCONSIN ADDED MORE
THAN 13,000 JOBS.
SO THAT IS REAL PROGRESS OUT OF
THE COVID HOLE GOING FORWARD.
>> YEAH, ABSOLUTELY.
I THINK WE ARE SEEING -- WE'VE
SEEN REAL PROGRESS, LIKE I SAID,
YOU KNOW, 500,000 JOBS, IF I
REMEMBER CORRECTLY, IN
APRIL 2020.
SO REALLY, WE'VE MOVED A LONG
WAY FORWARD ON THAT.
WE'RE STILL BEHIND A LITTLE BIT,
BUT I THINK WHAT WE'RE REALLY
SEEING NOW IS WORKERS THINKING
HARD ABOUT WHAT'S POSSIBLE FOR
THEM AND THEIR FAMILIES, WHAT'S
SAFE, CAN THEY GET CHILD CARE,
CAN THEY AFFORD THE THINGS THEY
NEED IN WORK, AND ARE THEY SAFE.
AND I THINK THE VACCINES HAVE
REALLY BEEN A GAME CHANGER, BUT
AGAIN, GAME CHANGE, ALSO DELTA
VARIANT, AND THAT PUTS PEOPLE
BACK ON THEIR HEELS A LITTLE BIT
AS WELL.
>> TOO MANY GAME CHANGES.
BUT TODAY'S NATIONAL JOB NUMBERS
WERE LOWER THAN PROJECTED.
WHAT DOES THAT FORETELL IN YOUR
MIND?
>> YEAH, I THINK THAT WE'VE HAD
TWO VERY STRONG KIND OF
700,000-PLUS JOBS REPORTS, AND
THEN THIS MONTH WAS MORE LIKE
235.
I THINK THAT FROM MY PRELIMINARY
LOOK AT THOSE NUMBERS, IT LOOKS
TO ME LIKE THAT'S WEAKER THAN
EXPECTED, BUT STILL SUBSTANTIAL
GROWTH IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION,
AND YOU SEE IN SECTORS IN
RESTAURANTS AND IN LEISURE AND
HOSPITALITY THAT ARE REALLY
NEEDING TO RECOVER.
SO THERE IS RECOVERY THERE, IT'S
NOT AS STRONG AS PEOPLE WANT --
OR PEOPLE EXPECTED BUT IT'S
STILL RECOVERY, AND SO IT'S LIKE
GOOD NEWS BUT A REMINDER THAT
THIS IS A ROCKY PATH AND THERE
ARE A LOT OF DYNAMICS AT WORK.
THERE'S ALSO SOME EVIDENCE OF
STRONGER WAGE PRESSURE IN THAT
REPORT, IN LEISURE AND
HOSPITALITY, SO SEEING THAT
MAYBE THIS IS A CHANCE THAT
THOSE JOBS GET RESTRUCTURED A
LITTLE BIT.
>> ALL RIGHT.
WELL, LAURA DRESSER, THANK YOU
VERY MUCH.
THANKS FOR YOUR WORK.