- The Democratic convention in Milwaukee
will move from the FISERV arena
to a smaller venue and be mostly remote,
with delegates being told not to come.
Candidate Joe Biden and his running mate, however,
are slated to accept the nomination in Milwaukee.
This week, the Trump and Pence visits to Wisconsin
come as their reelection bid heats up
against former Vice President Biden.
Both candidates hope to claim Wisconsin this November
after Trump narrowly won the state in 2016.
This week, a new Marquette Law School poll
gives us an early indication of how that race is taking shape
in the Badger State.
Poll director Charles Franklin joins us with those results.
And Charles, very nice to see you again.
- Good to be here, thanks.
- So as to the race for president in Wisconsin,
your polling found that 49% favor Joe Biden
to 41% for Donald Trump.
How have these numbers trended?
- This is a bump up for Biden this month.
That eight point margin this month
compares to three points in March
and in May and a dead tie in February.
So we've seen some movement up.
But this month, an especial bump up for Biden.
- And this is trending that way in polls across the country.
- We've seen it in polling across the country.
We've seen it in a number of state polls as well,
not just national polls.
If you think of the last six weeks, two months,
they have not been filled with good news
for the incumbent administration,
whether it's the protests or the virus or the economy.
And so this has not been a good time for the president.
- Now, your polling shows that the race is close in Green Bay.
Would it add up that that's why he's popping in
to Marinette this week?
- Right, well, the northern and western part of the state
have been important areas for him in 2016
and in building support this time.
If you look at where he's traveled
in recent events in Wisconsin,
most have actually been in the north,
northern part of the state.
Only a couple have been in the Milwaukee suburbs recently.
Though Vice President Pence came there recently.
So I think that what we're seeing is a return to the area
that has been strongest for him
and that will be important for his reelection.
- You mentioned it just a bit ago,
but his approval for his handling
of the death of George Floyd
and coronavirus is upside down right now.
- It's not just a little upside down
on the handling of the protests.
There are three crisis issues that are going on right now.
In handling the protests, only 30% approve
of the job President Trump is doing, 58% disapprove.
On handling the virus, 44% approve.
That's unchanged from last month.
And on the economy, 50% approve.
That's still his strong suit.
But that 50% is down four points from a month ago.
So across these three crises, you see his relative weakness
and his declining strength on the economy.
And with the newest issue, the protests,
a kind of remarkably strong net, negative 30 approve,
58 disapprove, basically two to one negative.
- Well, in that regard,
your polling shows on race and police, shows that overall,
61% of respondents approve of mass protests,
while 36% disapprove.
Is that a surprising number to you?
- I think it's a very interesting number.
You've heard a lot of people mention the comparison
of 1968 with today.
But the reaction to the 1968 unrest and riots
and civil disturbances in the wake of assassinations
was vastly more negative.
Today, I think what we're seeing in this 61% approval number
the sympathy for the situation of black Americans
who we have seen in videos dying at the hands of the police
repeatedly over the last few years.
There is much bigger differences over what to do
about the police.
But in this broad sense of sympathy,
61% is a solid majority supporting the protests.
And that's despite the sometimes violent nature
of some of those protests.
- In terms of what your polling found
about how people feel about police,
72% of your respondents have a favorable view of police,
with 18% having an unfavorable view.
But if you disaggregate, clearly black people
have a much less favorable view of police, right?
- That's right.
And this reflects the different experience
that black and white citizens and for that matter,
Hispanic citizens have of the police.
76% of white respondents have a favorable view of the police,
but that's just 39% for black respondents
and 50% for Hispanics.
We also asked about how do you feel
when you're around the police?
86% say they feel comfortable around the police.
Just 11% feel uncomfortable.
But among white respondents, it's 90% comfortable,
just 8% uncomfortable,
whereas 43% of African-American respondents feel safe.
And 44% feel anxious.
And I think when we look at items about the police,
it's important to realize how different the typical experience
of white Wisconsin citizens is and how that's reflected
in these very different perspectives.
- You also had some interesting questions
about what should be done around police departments,
the institutions of those departments themselves.
You asked if they should be restructured
to include more accountability.
And your polling showed that
81% of the respondents supported that,
a very high number.
- It is.
And it's an interesting contrast.
The question says should "restructure the role
"and require greater accountability
"for police misconduct."
81% behind that.
And there are very modest racial differences on that.
Big support among white respondents
as well as among black and Hispanic respondents.
When we asked the other version of the question,
"Do you want to defund the police?"
There it's only 23% that think we should defund the police.
And there are bigger racial differences.
So, you know, depending on how you describe what's being done,
there's either very limited support
for what sounds like getting rid of the police.
But there's very high levels of support
for making significant changes
and requiring greater accountability.
And that latter is possible without racial divides,
whereas the stronger defund
shows significant racial differences.
- Moving on to Governor Tony Evers' job approval,
you found that among your respondents,
54% approve of what he's been doing and 38% disapprove.
Now, that has slipped from a high of 65%.
Is that right?
In March for Tony Evers?
- That's right.
In March, it was 65.
Then it fell to 59.
And now it's down to the 54.
He was at 51% in February before the virus hit.
So he's just a little bit higher than he was then.
But the high watermarks that he had in March
and that many governors around the country had
has come back down to levels much closer
to the normal level of his support
before the epidemic arrived.
- Well, so what was the 65% number about?
- Well, I think we saw a very positive response
to the initial actions the governor took
about shutting down and sheltering at home.
In that March survey, 76% approved of the way
he was handling the virus.
65% approved of his job overall.
That support for his handling of the virus has fallen
into the high 50s now.
So it, too, has come down, though interestingly, still,
72% say that it was the right thing to do to shut down.
Only 25% feel it was an overreaction.
And that 25% has been stable from May until now.
It went up from March to May.
But so people are not rethinking that shutdown,
even if they're now not as enthusiastic
about the governor's actions with respect to COVID.
- As to reopening and specifically
the reopening of schools,
you found that 54% of your respondents
felt comfortable with that, whereas 38% felt uncomfortable.
But there are some places in terms of reopening
where people said they are just not yet comfortable.
What are those?
- There is quite a range on this.
At the low end of comfort is going to a big athletic event:
a football or baseball game.
Only 33% are comfortable with that.
49% are comfortable eating at a restaurant,
66% comfortable with shopping.
And it's in the high 80s, 83% that are comfortable
going to a friend or family member's home for dinner.
So you can see a lot of that is comfort
on small groups with individuals that you know
and a lot of discomfort with the idea
of a very large crowd in a confined space.
- All right, Charles, we leave it there.
Boy, you know these numbers cold
and you had a lot of questions in this poll.
Thank you so much.
And again, nice to have you.
- Thank you, take care.