ELECTION
NEWS,% AN
OZAUKEE
COUNTY
CIRCUIT
COURT
% JUDGE
THIS
AFTERNOON
SIDED
WITH
% CONSERVATIVES AND RULED
TO
% DEACTIVATE
THE
REGISTRATIONS
OF% MORE
THAN
200,000
VOTERS
FLAGGED
% AS
HAVING
MOVED
AND
CHANGED
% ADDRESS.
% THE
COURT
RULING COMES
AS
THE
% STATE
E
LECTIONS
COMMISSION
IS
% FIGHTING A
LAWSUIT
THAT
CALLS
% FOR
REMOVING THE
VOTERS.
% THE COMMISSION
INSTEAD
WANTED
T
O
% GIVE
THEM
UNTIL
2021
BEFORE
% REMOVING THEM FROM THE
BOOKS
A
ND
% SAYS IT WIL
L
APPEAL THE
RULING.
% >>
NOW
TO AN
INSIDE L
OOK
AT
THE
% RESULTS OF THE
N
EW
MARQUETTE
LAW
% SCHOOL
PO
LL.
% EARLIER
IN
THE
PROGRAM
WE
ASKED
% CONGRESSMAN RON KIND
ABOUT
THE
% POLL
NUMBERS
ON
TRUMP
% IMPEACHMENT EFFORTS.
% WE GET
ANALYSIS
O
N
THOSE
RESULTS% AS
WELL
AS
OTHER
TOPICS
FROM% CHARLES
FRANKLIN.
% BEFORE WE START
WITH
YOU
R
% NUMBERS,
AS A
POLITICAL
% SCIENTIST, WHAT IS
YOUR REACTION
% TO T
HE
IMPEACHMENT VOT
E
TODAY?
% >>
WELL, I
T
DOESN'T
COME
ALONG
% VERY OFTEN.
% IT'S
EXTRAORDINARY.
% MAYBE
WE'RE NOT
TREATING
IT
% QUITE
AS
EXTRAORDINARY
AS IT% MIGHT
BE.
% YOU
KNOW,
LONG
STRETCH
BETWEEN
% THE
1800s
AND
JOHNSON
AND
THEN
% NIXON AND
THEN
CLINTON
AND
NOW
% THIS
ONE.
% SO
THEY'RE A LITTLE
CLOSER
% BUNCHED
TOGETHER THAN
THEY'VE
% EVER BEEN.
% I
THINK IT'S
ACTUALLY HAMILTON
% IN
THE
FEDERALIST PAPERS
WROTE
% THAT
IMPEACHMENT
WOULD
ALWAYS
B
E% A POLITICAL PROCESS
AND A
BATTLE
% BETWEEN
PARTISANS.
% AND
I
THINK
WE'VE
THAT
% REALLY IN
ALL
TH
REE
OF
THIS
% RECENT
PERIOD'S IMPEACHMENT
% EFFORTS.
% AND THE
QUESTION IS
DOES IT
MOVE
% THE
PUBLIC AT ALL?
% DOES
THE
PUBLIC COME
AWAY
FROM
% THESE
THINGS
WI
TH
S
OME
DIFFERENT
% UNDERSTANDING THAN THEY
HAD
% BEFORE?
% IN
THE
NIXON
CASE
W
ITH
% WATERGATE,
I
THINK THAT
WAS
% TRUE, BUT I
N
THE
CLINTON A
ND
A
T
% LEAST SO F
AR
IN
THE
TRUMP
CASE,
% DOESN'T
SEEM
THAT
OPINIONS
H
AVE
% MOVED
MUCH.
% >>
WE
LL,
IN
FACT
THEN,
LET'S
% TAKE A LOOK
AT
O
UR
FIRST
SCREEN
% OF
YOUR
POLLING
RESULTS
THAT
% SHOWS
THAT
THE
NUMBERS
HAVE
NOT
% MOVED
MUCH,
BUT
CONSIDERING THE
% DEMOCRATS'
EFFORTS,
THIS
SEEMS
% INTERESTING.%>> IT
I
S
INTERESTING
IN A
COUPLE
% OF
WAYS.
% SO
40%
PRO
IMPEACHMENT,
52
% OPPOSED.
% IT
W
AS
40/53 A
MONTH
AGO.
% THAT'S HOW
LITTLE
I
T
HAS
MOVED.
% AND THAT
IS OVER THE COURSE
OF% TWO
WEEKS
OF
PUBLIC
TESTIMONY
% THAT
SPOKE
DIRECTLY
TO
ISSUES
% AND CLAIMS ABOUT W
HAT
THE
% PRESIDENT
H
AD
D
ONE
A
ND
SIMPLY
% DIDN'T
MOVE
PEOPLE'S
OPINIONS.
% WHAT'S
MORE,
PEOPLE'S BELIEFS
IN
% WHETHER PRESIDENT
TRUMP
ASKED
% UKRAINE
TO
DO AN
INVESTIGATION% OR
WHETHER H
E
WITHHELD MILITARY
% AID TO
PRESSURE
THE
M TO
D
O
THAT
% INVESTIGATION, NEITHER OF
THOSE
% NUMBERS
MO
VED
VERY
MUCH.
% AND
S
O
THE
TESTIMONY
DIDN'T
% PERSUADE PEOPLE.
% THEY STAYED
WHERE
THEY HAD
% STARTED.%>> WHAT
DOES THAT
TELL
YOU?
% >> WELL,
IT
SA
YS
WE'RE
LOCKED
% INTO
OUR
PREEXISTING
OPINIONS.
% PRESIDENT
TRUMP
IS A
DEEPLY
% POLARIZING FIGURE AND
PEOPLE
SEE
% HIM THAT
WAY
AND
THEY'RE FOR
HIM
% OR
AGAINST HIM.
% BUT
IF THIS
WAS
NEW
INFORMATION
% FROM THE
TESTIMONY,
AN
D
I
THINK
% IT
BROADLY
WAS,
IT
DIDN'T
% PROVIDE PEOPLE
WITH A
REA
SON
TO
% CHANGE
THEIR
MINDS.% >> AS TO
THE
HORSE
RACE
NUMBERS,
% AND WE
HAVE S
OME
I
N
OUR
N
EXT
% SLIDE, IT
LOOKS
LIKE A
% STATISTICAL
T
IE
BETWEEN DONALD
% TRUMP
BETWEEN
HIM
AND
BIDE
AND
E
N
AND
% THE
OTHERS.% >>
MOST
IMPORTANT
THING
TO
% NOTICE HERE
IS
NOT
ONLY
IS
THERE
% NOT
MU
CH
VARIATION
I
N
TRUMP'S
% NUMBERS.
% THERE'S
NOT
MUCH
VARIATION
% ACROSS THESE
DEMOCRATS
EITHER
% AND
THAT'S
REFLECTING THE
POWER
% OF
PARTISAN
DIVISIONS
O
VER
TRUMP
% AND FOR
THE
DEMOCRATS
THAT
-- WE
% INCLUDED CORY
BOOKER
IN
PART
% BECAUSE H
E'S
NOT A
FRONT-RUNNER% IN
THE
PRIMARIES,
B
UT
YOU
SEE
HE
% DOES
JUST AS WELL
AS
THE
% FRONT-RUNNERS DO.
% THAT
SHOWS
PARTISAN
ATTACHMENT
% AND
ANTIPATHY
T
O
TRUMP AMONG
% DEMOCRATS.%>>
BUT
AMON
G
DE
MOCRATS IN
% WISCONSIN?
% BECAUSE
H
E
DOESN'T
EVEN
QUALIFY
% FOR NEXT
WEEK'S
P
BS
DEBATE,
% POLLING AT
2
%
NATIONALLY.% WHAT IS
U
P
W
ITH
CORY
BOOKER
IN
% WISCONSIN?%>>
I
THINK WE
COULD
A
SK
OTHER
% CANDIDATES AND
S
EE A
SIMILAR
% KIND
OF
EFFECT.
% I
THINK
LAST
MONTH
WE
H
AD
AS
KED
% BOOKER
ON
ONLY
HA
LF
THE
SAMPLE.
% KLOBUCHAR DIDN'T
DO
S
O
WELL.
% WITH
WANTED TO SEE
WIT
H A FULL
% SAMPLE WOULD W
E
GET A
SIMILAR
% RESULT
AND WE
DO.
% >>
THE
OTHER
THING TH
AT
STRUCK
% ME
O
N
THA
T
KIND
O
F
MATCH-UP
% POLLING
WA
S
THA
T
JOE
BIDEN
HA
S
% TAKEN A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT SLIDE
% SINCE YOUR LAST
POL
L IN
OCTOBER.% >>
IT
HAS
TIGHTENED A BIT.
% BIDEN HAD B
EEN
UP
BY
SI
X
AND
% THEN
WAS
DOWN
BY
THRE
E
LAST
% MONTH AND NOW
UP
BY
ON
E.
% SO
THERE'S
SOM
E
WOBBLE
I
N
THERE.
% HE
WAS
UP A
LITTLE
MORE
IN
% AUGUST, AS A MATTER OF FACT.
% SO THERE
I
S A
LITTLE BIT
O
F A
% TIGHTENING ON
BIDEN.
% THE
OTHERS,
THOUGH,
ARE
MOSTLY% HAVE BEEN TIGHT
A
ND
STAY
TIGHT.
% AND WHAT
WE'
RE
SEEING
I
N THIS
% KINDS
OF A
TOSS-UP
RACE
IS
L
AST
% MONTH IT WAS
TRUMP A
BIT
AHEAD,
% MOSTLY INSIDE
THE
MARGIN
OF
% ERROR.
% THE
MONTH
BEFORE
THAT IT
WAS
THE
% DEMOCRATS SLIGHTLY
AHEAD
IN
THE
% MARGIN OF
ERROR.
% THIS TIME
WE'RE R
IGHT
IN
THE
% MIDDLE,
ALMOST
DEAD
EVEN ACROSS
% THE
BOARD.% >>
SPEAKING
OF
RIGHT
IN
THE
% MIDDLE, ON
E
GROUP
W
E
HAVEN'T
% TALKED
ABOUT
A
RE
INDEPENDENTS.
% OBVIOUSLY IMPORTANT I
N
THE
SE
% KINDS
MATCH-UPS.% >>
IN
DEPENDENTS ARE
ONLY
ABOUT
% 10%
O
F
WISCONSIN
VOTERS, BUT
% WHEN YOU H
AVE A
RACE
THIS
CLOSE,
% THEY'RE
REALLY
IMPORTANT.
% ON
BALANCE,
THEY'RE
OPPOSED
TO
% IMPEACHMENT,
N
OT
ENORMOUSLY,
BUT
% ON BALANCE
THEY'RE
OPPOSED.
% AND ON
BALANCE,
THEY
DISAPPROVE
% OF PRESIDENT TRUMP.
% SO
YOU
CAN
SEE
THAT THEY
ARE
% POTENTIALLY A SWING
GROUP
HERE.
% NOT THRILLED
WITH
TH
E
% IMPEACHMENT EFFORT,
BUT
ALSO
% POTENTIALLY
GETABLE
B
Y
DEMOCRATS
% GIVEN THAT
THEY
'RE
NO
T
TH
AT
% APPROVING OF THE
P
RESIDENT.% >>
LET
ME
GET
TO
ONE
LAST
SLIDE
% AND THAT
I
S
APPROVAL
NUMBERS
FOR
% GOVERNOR TONY EVERS.
% 50%
A
PPROVAL,
38%
DISAPPROVAL.
% BOTH
NUMBERS
H
AVE
GROWN.
% HOW
SHOULD
HIS
SUPPORTERS FEEL
% ABOUT THESE
KINDS
OF
NUMBERS?
% >>
WELL, THIS
IS
A
PRETTY
GOOD
% PERFORMANCE.%I
THINK
MOST
IMPORTANTLY
H
E
H
AD
% BEEN
O
VER
50
WITH
NET
APPROVAL% IN
T
HE
HIGH
TEENS,
LOW
20s.
% LAST MONTH THAT
FELL
TO A
NET
% PLUS
FIVE.
% FIVE POINTS
MORE
APPROVED
THAN
% DISAPPROVED.
% SO IT
WAS AN
OPENING
QUESTION
OF
% WHETHER IT WAS BEGINNING TO
% SLIP.
% THIS BIT
OF A
REBOUND
THIS
TIME
% SLIPS
THAT
WHATEVER
L
AST
MONTH
% WAS DIDN'T GIVE
US AN
INDICATION
% THAT
HE'S
ON
HIS
WAY
DOWN A
ND
% THIS BIT
OF A
REBOUND
PUTS
HIM% NOT QUITE AS WELL AS HE
WAS IN
% OCTOBER, BUT
STILL
U
P
FROM
WHERE% HE WAS
LAST
TIME
.
% THIS BIG
OF A
NET
APPROVAL, PLUS
% 12, IS
BETTER
T
HAN
WALKER
HAD% DURING
MOST
OF
HIS
TERM,
WHICH
% SIMPLY
REFLECTS
HOW
STRONG
THE
% BALANCE
WAS
IN GOVERNOR
WALKER'S
% CASE.%>> FOR