TO
POLITICS
AND
THE
% RESULTS OF THE
LATEST MARQUETTE
% UNIVERSITY
LAW
SCHOOL
POLL.
% HERE
WITH
THE
RESULTS OF THE
NEW
% SURVEY IS
THE
DIRECTOR OF
THE
% POLL, CHARLES FRANKLIN.
% THANKS
FOR
YOUR
TIME
AGAIN.% >>
GOOD TO
BE
HERE.
% >>
SO
WE'RE
14
MONTHS
OUT
FROM
% NOVEMBER OF
2020
AND DONALD
% TRUMP
IS
EITHER
TRAILING OR
TIED
% WITH
THE
TOP
FOUR
DEMOCRATS
IN
% YOUR
POLL.
% >> THAT'S
RIGHT.
% WE SEE
JOE
BIDEN
WITH A
% NINE-POINT
LEAD,
FOLLOWED BY
% BERNIE
SANDERS
WITH A
FOUR-POINT% LEAD.
% BUT
THEN
ELIZABETH
WARREN
TIES
% AT
45
AND
HARRIS
TIES
AT
44.
% WE
ASKED
ABOUT
THOSE
FOUR
% CANDIDATES BECAUSE
THEY'VE
BEEN
% IN
THE
TOP
FOUR
IN
NATIONAL
% POLLING
AVERAGES.
% WE'LL CHANGE THAT
AS
THE
% CANDIDATES
CHANGE.% >> WITH REGARDS
TO
THE
NEITHER
% CATEGORY, THAT'S
CONSISTENT
WITH
% WHAT WE
SAW
IN
2016.
% YOU'VE TOLD US
IN
THE
PAST
THOSE
% PEOPLE DO
ACTUALLY
MAKE A
% CHOICE.%>>
I
THINK
THAT'S
GENERALLY
% RIGHT.
% NOW, IN
2016
WE
SAW AN
UNUSUALLY
% LARGE
THIRD-PARTY VOTE HERE.
% AND
WE
ALSO
SAW
NEARLY
100,000
% FEWER
VOTERS GOING
TO
THE
POLLS
% IN 2016
COMPARED
TO
2012.
% SO THERE
ARE
MULTIPLE
WAYS
THAT
% YOU CAN
CHOOSE
TO
VOTE
FOR
% WITHIN OF THE
TWO
PARTIES
% ANYWAY, VOTE
FOR A THIRD
PARTY
% OR STAY
HOME.
% WE SAW
ALL
OF
THAT
AT WORK
IN
% 2016.%>>
NOW,
TRUMP'S
APPROVAL
RATING
% IS
ALSO
UPSIDE
DOWN
AND
NOT
% CHANGED
SINCE
APRIL.
% SO
IS
WISCONSIN
STILL
THE
% PROVERBIAL
SWING
STATE?
% >>
I
THINK WE
ARE
THE
SWING
% STATE.
% AND THE
WAY
TO
THINK
ABOUT
THIS
% IS OF
THE
LAST
FIVE
PRESIDENTIAL
% ELECTIONS
HERE,
THREE
OF
THEM% HAVE
BEEN
DIVIDED
BY
LESS
THAN
% ONE PERCENTAGE POINT.
% THE
GOVERNOR'S RACE
WAS
DECIDED
% BY
JUST
OVER
ONE
PERCENTAGE% POINT LAST YEAR.
% SO
THE
IDEA
THAT WE
ARE
ANYTHING% OTHER
THAN A
SWING
STATE
I
THINK
% IS
JUST
WRONG.
% PRESIDENT
TRUMP'S
FAVORABILITY
% RATINGS
ARE A
BIT
BETTER
HERE
% NOW
THAN THEY WERE
IN
'16,
% THOUGH THEY
ARE
STILL
UNDER
% WATER, AS
IS
HIS
JOB
APPROVAL.
% SO
HE'S
IN
SOME
WAYS
IN
BETTER
% SHAPE
NOW
THAN HE WAS
THERE,
BUT
% IN OTHER
WAYS
HE'S
STILL
FALLING
% SHORT OF
THAT
50% APPROVAL
WHICH
% HE'S NEVER
HIT
IN
OUR
POLLING.% >> AND
YOU
MENTIONED
THE
% DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY.
% WISCONSIN COMES
IN
APRIL,
PRETTY
% LATE IN
THE
PROCESS.
% HOW
MUCH
SHOULD
WE
TAKE
INTO
% THOSE
NUMBERS
NOW?
% HOW
MUCH
WILL
CHANGE BY
THEN?
% >>
ALL
OF
THESE
NUMBERS SHOULD% BE
THOUGHT
OF
AS
WE'RE
IN
THE% MIDDLE OF
THE
SECOND
INNING OF
% THE
BALL
GAME.
% IT'S A LONG WAY TO
THE
BOTTOM OF
% THE
NINTH
AND A
FINAL
SCORE.
% BUT WE
WANT
TO
WATCH
HOW
THE% GAME
PROGRESSES, WHICH
TEAMS
% RALLY
AND
WHICH
FALL
OFF
% THROUGHOUT THE COURSE.
% SO I
THINK
THAT'S
THE
WAY
TO
% LOOK AT
IT.
% NOT AS
THESE
ARE
PREDICTIONS.
% IN
THE
DEM
PRIMARY
WE
SAW
BIDEN
% IN FIRST
PLACE
AT 28
FOLLOWED
BY
% SANDERS AT
20
AND
WARREN
AT
17.
% SO
THAT'S IN
LINE
WITH
WHA
T
% WE'RE
SEEING
IN
NATIONAL
% POLLING.
% BUT
AGAIN A
LONG
TIME TO
GO.
% AND
THEY'VE
BEEN
BUSY
PAYING
% ATTENTION TO
IOWA.
% WE HAVEN'T
SEEN
AS
MUCH
OF
THOSE
% CANDIDATES
YET.% >>
MEANWHILE,
THINKING ABOUT
THE
% ECONOMY,
PEOPLE
THINK
IT'S
DOING
% OKAY
NOW,
BUT
THEY'RE
NOT
% OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
THE
FUTURE.% >>
THEY'RE
MORE
PESSIMISTIC
% ABOUT THE
FUTURE
THAN
WE'VE
SEEN
% SINCE
JANUARY 2012.
% A
NET
NEGATIVE 11
SAY
THE
% ECONOMY
WILL
GET
WORSE OVER
THE
% NEXT
YEAR RATHER THAN BETTER.
% AND
THE
A
VERAGE
FOR
2019
ACROSS
% THREE
POLLS
IS
NEGATIVE
THREE.
% AT
NO
POINT
IN
THE
TIME
THAT
% WE'VE BEEN
DOING
THE
POLL
HAS
% ANY
INDIVIDUAL
POLL
BEEN
NET
% NEGATIVE AND
CERTAINLY
NOT
THE
% AVERAGE
FOR A
YEAR.
% NOW,
THAT'S
THREE
POLLS
TAKEN
% SINCE
JANUARY HERE AND
OPINIONS% OF THE
ECONOMY
CAN FLUK IT
WA.
% --%FLUCTUATE.
% WE
HAD AN
OKAY
JOBS
REPORT
% TODAY, FOR EXAMPLE.
% BUT
I
THINK IT
IS
CERTAINLY A
% WARNING SIGN
THAT
THE
PUBLIC
% THAT HAS BEEN
VERY
POSITIVE
% ABOUT
THE
ECONOMY
SINCE
2017,
AT
% LEAST, IS
NOW
BEGINNING TO
SEE
% SOME
CONCERNS ON
THE
HORIZON.% >>
AND
IN
REGARDS
TO
POLLING
AND
% HOW
PEOPLE FEEL
ABOUT
THIS,
% CONSUMER
OPTIMISM DOES
MATTER
% WHEN IT
COMES
TO
HOW
IT
PLAYS
% OUT IN
THE
ECONOMY,
WHETHER
% PEOPLE
SPEND
MONEY.
% >> IT
ABSOLUTELY DOES
BECAUSE
% YOU
NEED TO
BE
OPTIMISTIC
ABOUT
% WHAT'S
COMING
BEFORE
YOU
GO
GET
% THAT NEW
CAR
OR
REFRIGERATOR OR
% BUY A NEW
HOUSE.
% YOU
KNOW,
THE
GOOD
NEWS
IS
OUR
% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
IS
STILL
% EXCEPTIONALLY LOW.
% BUT
THIS
NOTION
THAT
PEOPLE
ARE
% FEELING UNCERTAIN
ABOUT
THE
% FUTURE
IS
SOMETHING
TO
WORRY
% ABOUT.
% IT
MEANS
THAT PRESIDENT
TRUMP
% DOES
NOT
HAVE
AS
HIGH AN
% APPROVAL ON THE ECONOMY
HERE.
% IT'S 49
TO
50.
% AS
HE
HAS
SEEN
IN
SOME
NATIONAL
% POLLING
EARLIER
IN
THE
YEAR,
% WHEN HE WAS
GETTING
53
TO
55%.% >>
I
DO
WANT
TO
TOUCH
GUN
% CONTROL
AND
UNIVERSAL
BACKGROUND% CHECKS.
% IN
YOUR
NOTES ON THE
POLL,
YOU
% MENTION
WHICH
MASS
SHOOTINGS
% CAME
BEFORE
THE
POLL
AND
WHICH
% ONES CAME OVER.
% BUT
IT
DOESN'T
SEEM
TO
MATTER
% ANYMORE.
% ONE
THEY'RE
COMING
SO
OFTEN
BUT,
% TWO,
IT
HASN'T
CHANGED.% >>
IT
HASN'T.
% I
THINK
THAT
REFLECTS HOW
MANY
% MASS
SHOOTINGS
THERE HAVE BEEN.
% WE
SAW A
LITTLE
RISE
IN
SUPPORT
% FOR
BACKGROUND
CHECKS
FROM
THE
% '70s TO
THE
'80s OVER
THE
% LAST FEW
YEARS, BUT
FOR
THE
LAST
% TWO OR
THREE
YEARS
IT'S
BEEN
% AROUND
80%.
% IT'S
80%
THIS
TIME.
% THAT
INCLUDES OVER
75%
OF
GUN
% HOUSEHOLDS AND
OVER
80%
OF
% NON-GUN
HOUSEHOLDS.
% 81%
SUPPORT
RED
FLAG
LAWS,
AGAIN
% IN
BOTH
GUN
AND
NON-GUN
% HOUSEHOLDS.
% IT'S
BANNING
ASSAULT
WEAPONS
% THAT
MORE
DIVISIVE.
% 56
OR
57%
STILL
SUPPORT
THAT.
% BUT
NOW
GUN
HOUSEHOLDS ARE
% EVENLY
DIVIDED
SO
THERE'S
MORE
% DIVISION ON THAT
ISSUE.% >> ALL