% "KILLER HEAT" A GROUP CALLED THE
% UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS
% THIS WEEK SHOWED HOW IF LEFT
% UNABATED HEAT-TRAPPING EMISSIONS
% COULD TURN THE CLIMATE OF
% WISCONSIN INTO THAT OF
% ARKANSAS'S.
% TODAY BETWEEN 105 AND 115
% DEGREES FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURE.
% THERE HAS BEEN ONE DAY ON
% AVERAGE WITH A HEAT INDEX OF
% OVER 100.
% IT COULD INCREASE TO 14 AND TO
% 32 SUCH DAYS BY THE END OF THE
% CENTURY.
% HOW DOES THIS STUDY SQUARE WITH
% THE WORK OF OUR OWN SCIENTISTS
% HERE IN WISCONSIN?
% WE CHECK IN WITH MICHAEL NOTARO
% AND THE NELSON INSTITUTE FOR
% CLIMATIC RESEARCH AND THANKS
% VERY MUCH FOR BEING HERE.
% >> YOU'RE VERY WELCOME.
% >> AS WE MENTIONED, IN SOUTHERN
% WISCONSIN THE HEAT INDEX IS
% BETWEEN 105 AND 115 DEGREES.
% HOW CLOSE IS THAT TO WHAT
% SCIENTISTS DESCRIBE AS
% OFF-THE-CHARTS HEAT?
% >> WELL, RIGHT NOW I THINK THIS
% IS ABOUT AS HOT AS IT'S BEEN
% SINCE ABOUT 2012, SO WE HAVE
% TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90s.
% WE HAVE DEW POINTS THAT ARE IN
% THE MID 70s.
% WE HAVE HEAT INDICES ABOUT 105.
% THEREFORE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
% WARNING.
% IN 2012 WE GOT ABOUT 103 DEGREES
% FAHRENHEIT, BUT COMPARABLE HEAT
% INDICES.
% THIS IS PRETTY HIGH UP THERE,
% MUCH MORE INTENSE THAN WE
% TYPICALLY GET IN WISCONSIN.
% WITH THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING,
% PEOPLE ARE BEING ADVISED TO BE
% CAREFUL, EVEN HEALTHY ADULTS AT
% THIS POINT.
% >> SO WHEN CLINICAL SCIENTISTS
% SEE THIS KIND OF PERHAPS "KILLER
% HEAT," DO YOU ATTRIBUTE IT TO
% CLIMATE CHANGE OR EMISSIONS?
% >> I WOULD NOT CONTRIBUTE A
% SINGLE EVENT TO HUMAN-INDUCED
% CLIMATE CHANGE AS CONSISTENT OF
% WHAT WE WOULD EXPECT IN THAT
% DIRECTION.
% THERE'S A STUDY FROM UC-DAVIS
% WHICH SHOWED WE HAVE IN THE
% MIDWEST WHAT'S CALLED A WARMING
% HOLE, WHERE THE SUMMER HIGH
% TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT YET
% WARMED, BUT THE DEW POINT
% TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES
% HAVE BEEN INCREASING.
% AS YOU REFERRED TO FROM THE
% STUDY FROM THE UNION OF
% CONCERNED SCIENTISTS, THERE'S A
% LARGE PROJECTED INCREASE IN HEAT
% INDICES.
% IT'S CONSISTENT IN THAT
% DIRECTION, BUT IT'S DIFFICULT TO
% ATTRIBUTE SINGLE EVENTS TO
% CLIMATE CHANGE.
% >> DOES YOUR RESEARCH SQUARE
% WITH THIS UNION OF CONCERNED
% SCIENTISTS?%>> YES.
% I'VE BEEN INVOLVED WITH A
% COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE
% UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON,
% THE DNR AND OTHER STATE
% GOVERNMENT AGENCIES, ALONG WITH
% TRIBAL ORGANIZATIONS AND
% BUSINESSES.
% WE'VE DONE A LOT OF WHAT'S
% CALLED DOWN SCALING WORK, TRYING
% TO DEVELOP CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
% FOR WISCONSIN.
% A LOT OF WHAT THEY'VE GENERATED
% THROUGH THEIR STUDY WAS
% CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE FOUND.
% THEY'RE USING THE SAME SET OF
% MODELS AND ESTIMATES USED BY THE
% INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON
% CLIMATE CHANGE AND THEY'RE USING
% A VERY COMMONLY USED STATISTICAL
% CLIMATE CHANGE PRODUCT.
% SO IT'S CONSISTENT.
% >> SO ONE FINDING WAS BY
% MID-CENTURY WITH NO REDUCTION IN
% EMISSIONS A THIRD OF THE UNITED
% STATES WILL EXPERIENCE OFF THE
% CHART HEAT INDEXES.
% >> BASICALLY YOU CAN PICTURE A
% HEAT INDEX TABLE ON WHICH THEY
% SHOW THE HIGH TEMPERATURE VERSUS
% HELL RIFF!!!VERSUS-- RELAT
IVE HUMIDITY.
% WHEN IT GETS HIGH ENOUGH, THE
% HEAT INDEX IS NO LONGER
% CONSIDERED A RELIABLE MEASURE.
% THEY'RE ESTIMATING THAT A
% SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF OUR
% COUNTRY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
% INTO THAT REALM.
% EVEN BY THE END OF THE CENTURY
% PARTS OF WISCONSIN MAY ENCOUNTER
% THOSE KIND OF HEAT EXPERIENCES.
% OBVIOUSLY, IF YOU ZOOM BACK TO
% THE JULY, 2012 EPISODE, EVEN I
N
% WISCONSIN THERE WAS ABOUT A
% DOZEN DEATHS AND HUNDREDS OF
% HOSPITALIZATIONS AND THAT PALES
% IN COMPARISON TO WHAT MAY COME.
% THIS IS GOING TO BE THE NEW NORM
% BY THE END OF THE END OF THE
% CENTURY, MORE TYPICAL OF WHAT
% YOU GET IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE
S
% WITH EXPECTED WARMING OF AIR
% TEMPERATURES.%>> WHAT DO YOU
SAY TO PEOPLE WHO
% MIGHT DISCOUNT THIS KIND OF
% RESEARCH AND FIND IT TO BE EX
% EXAGGERATED?%>> WELL, ONE OF
THE LATEST SHOWS
% EVIDENCE IS RELATED TO WARMING
% THROUGH HUMAN ACTIVITIES IS
% THROUGH THE IPCC, A SERIES OF
% CLIMATE MODELS HAVE BEEN RUN
% BOTH WITH HUMAN-INDUCED CARBON
% EMISSIONS AND WITHOUT DID.
% THE ONLY WAY YOU CAN PRODUCE THE
% WARMING IS TO INCLUDE HUMAN
% EMISSIONS.
% WE KNOW THE OBVIOUS SOURCE OF
% EVIDENCE OF GREENHOUSE GASES AND
% THE KNOWN PHYSICS FIND THEM,
% TRAPPING IN RADIATION, PRODUCING
% WARMING.
% SO IT'S LOGICAL.
% YOU CAN LOOK AT THE GLOBAL
% TRENDS THAT HAVE BEEN HAPPENING
% UP TO NOW.
% ALMOST THE WHOLE WORLD IS
% WARMING.
% ENTSZ ARE!!EVENTS ARE BECOMIN
G MORE
% EXTREME, CONSISTENT WITH WHAT
% THE CLIMATE MODELS HAVE BEEN
% SHOWING.%>> WHAT KIND OF A
CTION COULD
% SLOW THE INCREASE IN THESE HOT
% TEMPERATURES?%>> THE NICE T
HING WITH THE UNION
% OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS REPORT
% IS THERE'S A SENSE OF HOPE
% OFFERED THERE IN THAT THEY WERE
% SHOWING THAT IF WE ARE RIGOROUS
% IN ATTACKING OUR EMISSIONS NOW,
% THAT MORE FAVORABLE SCENARIO, WE
% CAN DRAMATICALLY REDUCE THE
% EXTREME HEAT BY THE END OF THE
% CENTURY IN PARTICULAR.
% SO THAT'S ENCOURAGING.
% WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT
% IT.
% BUT THAT INVOLVES BEING VERY
% PROACTIVE, REDUCING THE USE OF
% FOSSIL FUELS, RELYING ON CLEAN
% ENERGIES, BECOMING ACTIVE IN THE
% PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT.
% LIKEWISE, FOR THE LOW AND HIGH
% END EMISSION SCENARIOS, IT'S
% GOING TO GET HOTTER, SO WE NEED
% TO ADAPT ALSO.
% AND THAT INVOLVES, AS
% RECOMMENDED, DEVELOPING PLANS TO
% PROTECT VULNERABLE POPULATIONS,
% MAPPING OUT WHERE THOSE
% POPULATIONS ARE, COMING UP WITH
% MORE CLEAN ENERGIES, ENERGIES
% THAT WE DON'T LOSE POWER SO
% EASILY, KEEP THE ENERGY,
% ELECTRICITY FLOWING FOR PEOPLE
% EVEN IF THEY DON'T PAY THEIR
% BILLS, HAVING EMERGENCY PLANS.
% THOSE ARE ALL SORTS OF
% MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION.
% >> YOU MENTIONED PRECIPITATION
% AS PART OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
% SO WHAT'S HAPPENING ON THAT
% FRONT IN WISCONSIN EVEN AS WE
% SPEAK?%>> YEAH.
% SO WISCONSIN HAS BEEN SIMILAR TO
% MOST OF THE WORLD, WHERE EXTREME
% RAINFALL EVENTS ARE BECOMING
% MORE FREQUENT AND MORE INTENSE.
% THE PHYSICS BEHIND THAT IS AS
% AIR IS WARMER, IT BECOMES A MOR
E
% EFFECTIVE SPONGE OF MOISTURE.
% YOU HAVE LARGER DOWNPOURS.
% YOU CAN SEE PARTICULARLY IN
% SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN A
% VAST INCREASE NOT JUST OF ANNUA
L
% PRECIPITATION, BUT THE FREQUENCY
% OF RAINFALL EVENTS, FLOODING
% EVENTS.
% NOT JUST THE LAKE DELTON EVENT
.
% THOSE HAVE LARGE EFFECTS.
% OVERALL YOU CAN ARGUE THAT THE
% BIGGEST EFFECTS OF CLIMATE
% CHANGE ARE THE EXTREMES, SO THE
% HOT DAYS LIKE TODAY, WHICH
% STRESS HUMAN HEALTH, HEAVY
% FLOODING EVENTS FROM HEAVY
% RAINFALL.%>> ALL RIGHT.
% MICHAEL NOTARO, THANKS FOR YOUR
% WORK.%>> YOU'RE VERY WELCO
ME.