- FOR WHAT'S SURE TO BE A DISTINCTLY PARTISAN TAKE
ON THINGS, WE WELCOME CONSERVATIVE BILL MCCOSHEN,
MANAGING PARTNER AT CAPITOL CONSULTANTS AND SCOT ROSS,
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE LIBERAL ONE WISCONSIN NOW.
THANKS FOR BEING HERE. - THANKS FOR HAVING US.
- FIRST THING, YOUR REACTION TO PAUL RYAN SAYING
HE'S NOT RUNNING FOR RE-ELECTION.
FIRST TO YOU. - I'D SAY THIS.
PAUL RYAN'S BEEN IN WASHINGTON D.C. SINCE 1992.
HE'S A CAREER D.C. GUY.
THE ONE THING WE KNOW ABOUT D.C. LIFERS IS THEY DO NOT LEAVE
OF THEIR OWN VOLITION AND THAT'S WHAT PAUL RYAN'S DOING.
NOW, WOULD HE HAVE WON HIS RE-ELECTION RACE?
IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.
BUT HIM LEAVING, CUTTING AND RUNNING NOW IS A GOOD SIGN
HE KNOWS THE END IS NEAR FOR THE REPUBLICAN HOUSE MAJORITY.
- YOU THINK THAT'S THE CASE? - I DON'T.
IT'S POSSIBLE THE DEMOCRATS COULD TAKE BACK THE HOUSE.
WE'LL SEE ON THAT.
BUT I DON'T THINK THAT THE 1ST DISTRICT'S IN JEOPARDY
TO BE HONEST WITH YOU.
THIS IS A DEEPLY RED DISTRICT.
PAUL RYAN'S BEEN THERE 20 YEARS.
THE AVERAGE OF HIS TEN ELECTIONS HAS BEEN 63.5%.
THE LAST DEMOCRAT TO WIN THE 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT WAS
BARACK OBAMA IN 2008 AND HE WON IT BY FOUR POINTS.
AND BY THE WAY, THAT WAS ON A MUCH DIFFERENT MAP BACK THEN.
THIS IS A DEEPLY RED SEAT.
- SO HE COULD WIN HIS RE-ELECTION.
BUT WHAT IF STUFF HAPPENED AROUND HIM,
THE BIG BLUE WAVE THAT EVERYONE SPEAKS OF?
- WELL, I THINK ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HE'S DOING
THAT'S UNUSUAL IS HE'S STAYING AS SPEAKER,
AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING.
WE'LL SEE IF HIS CONFERENCE DECIDES TO GO ANOTHER DIRECTION.
HE'S BEEN ABLE TO RAISE $54 MILLION.
THAT'S A RECORD AMOUNT FOR ANY SPEAKER.
HE'S RAISING MONEY FOR THE TEAM.
AND NOW THERE'S TWO GUYS COMPETING FOR HIS JOB WHO WILL
ALSO BE OUT THERE RAISING MONEY.
SO I THINK THAT ACTUALLY BENEFITS THE REPUBLICANS.
- SO IT'S A GOOD THING BECAUSE THAT WAS ANOTHER QUESTION I HAD.
WHAT DO YOU THINK IT DOES TO THE REPUBLICANS' ABILITY
TO RAISE MONEY FOR THE MIDTERMS AND CAMPAIGN?
- I MEAN I THINK THEY'LL BE ABLE TO RAISE MONEY.
THEY ALWAYS HAVE.
THEY ALWAYS HAVE-- THEY'LL ALWAYS OUT-RAISE THE DEMOCRATS.
BUT CAN THE DEMOCRATS RAISE ENOUGH TO COMPETE?
I THINK YES.
I THINK THE SMALL DOLLAR FUND-RAISING WE'VE SEEN
ALL AROUND THE COUNTRY IS GOING TO BE REALLY GOOD
FOR THE DEMOCRATS.
I THINK THEY WILL HAVE THE RESOURCES TO COMPETE.
I THINK WE HAVE A VERY POSITIVE ATMOSPHERE
IN TERMS OF ELECTORAL THINGS.
I THINK THE BIG CHALLENGE THAT COMES OUT NOW BECAUSE
OF THIS RACE IN THE 1ST C.D.
IS THE KIND OF CONVERSATION THAT'S GOING TO BE GOING ON
DOWN THERE.
WHEREAS PAUL RYAN WAS ABLE TO STAY BACK IN WASHINGTON D.C.
AND NOT HAVE TO TALK ABOUT HIS ALLEGIANCE TO DONALD TRUMP,
HIS FEALTY TO DONALD TRUMP, YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE
TWO, THREE, FOUR CANDIDATES DOWN THERE COMPETING
TO SAY WHO IS CLOSEST TO TRUMP.
THAT'S TOXIC FOR THE REPUBLICANS.
- WE'LL SEE. TRUMP WON THE DISTRICT.
HE GOT 52% IN THAT DISTRICT.
SO IT WASN'T TOXIC FOR HIM IN 2016.
I'M NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE IN 2018 FOR THE NOMINEE.
BUT THAT HAS YET TO PLAY OUT.
I MEAN LET'S TALK ABOUT THE CANDIDATES.
POTENTIALLY ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, THERE'S DAVID CRAIG,
STATE SENATOR FROM WAUKESHA.
FREE SHOT FOR HIM.
I EXPECT HIM TO GET IN. HE'S A FORMER RYAN STAFFER.
SAMANTHA KERKMAN FROM THE KENOSHA AREA.
A MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY FOR A LONG TIME.
SHE'S CONSIDERING.
I DON'T KNOW IF SHE'LL GET IN OR NOT
BUT I THINK SHE'D BE CREDIBLE.
AND THE FINAL ONE IS UW REGENT BRYAN STEIL FROM JANESVILLE,
WHO ABSOLUTELY I EXPECT TO GET IN.
- WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE FACT THAT ROBIN VOS HOWEVER AND
REINCE PRIEBUS HAVE BOTH SAID NO, THEY'RE NOT GOING TO DO IT?
- I THINK THEY UNDERSTAND HOW TOXIC THE ENVIRONMENT IS.
I WOULD BE REMISS IF I DIDN'T NOTE THE ONE CANDIDATE
WHO IS ACTUALLY IN THE RACE FOR THE REPUBLICANS CURRENTLY.
PAUL NEHLEN WHO HAS BEEN
AN AVOWED WHITE SUPREMACIST AND ANTI-SEMITE.
HE'S IS GOING TO BE A PART OF THIS CONVERSATION.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE MEDIA
TO KEEP HIM OUT OF THE DISCUSSION.
HE IS A LONG-ESTABLISHED CANDIDATE AND THAT IS
UNFORTUNATE FOR THE REPUBLICANS BECAUSE HE IS SO TIED TO TRUMP.
HE HAS BEEN SUCH A-- HE WENT AFTER RYAN BECAUSE HE SAID
RYAN WASN'T PRO-TRUMP ENOUGH.
- HOW DOES THAT MUDDY THIS RACE? - WHO KNOWS IF HE STAYS IN?
REMEMBER HIS BATTLE WAS AGAINST PAUL RYAN.
HE GOT 15% AGAINST PAUL RYAN IN THE PRIMARY IN 2016.
SO HE WASN'T CREDIBLE TWO YEARS AGO.
I THINK HE'S LESS CREDIBLE IN AN OPEN FIELD.
I'M NOT SURE THE MEDIA WILL PAY AS MUCH ATTENTION TO HIM.
I THINK THE THREE NAMES I MENTIONED BEFORE, STEIL,
KERKMAN AND CRAIG, WILL BE THE FRONT-RUNNERS OF THIS RACE.
- WHAT ABOUT THE DEMS?
- I THINK THE DEMS HAVE A SPIRITED PRIMARY GOING ON
WITH TWO CANDIDATES FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE DISTRICT.
THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT THE ISSUES.
THEY'RE HAVING AN ACTUAL CONVERSATION IN THE 1ST C.D.
ABOUT ISSUES THAT MATTER FOR WISCONSINITES.
THAT'S A REALLY IMPORTANT THING BECAUSE FOR SO LONG
THERE WASN'T THAT CONVERSATION.
- DEMOCRATS ARE DOING EVERYTHING THEY CAN TO RIG THIS PRIMARY,
JUST LIKE THEY DID FOR HILLARY CLINTON AGAINST BERNIE SANDERS.
THEY WANT RANDY BRYCE TO BE THE NOMINEE.
THE TRUTH IS RANDY BRYCE IS NOT LIBERAL ENOUGH FOR THAT--
OR IS TOO LIBERAL FOR THAT DISTRICT.
AND HE'S A THREE-TIME LOSER.
HE LOST THE SEAT FOR STATE ASSEMBLY.
HE LOST THE SEAT FOR THE SCHOOL BOARD IN RACINE.
HE CAME IN 7TH OUT OF 10.
AND THEN HE LOST A STATE SENATE RACE.
THIS GUY HAS NEVER WON BEFORE.
YET HE'S THEIR POSTER GUY AND THEY'RE TRYING TO KNOCK
CATHY MYERS OUT OF THE RACE.
SO THIS IS ONCE AGAIN, DEMOCRATS
ARE TRYING TO RIG THE PRIMARY SYSTEM.
- I APPRECIATE BILL'S INSIGHT INTO THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
GIVEN HIS LONG ASSOCIATION WITH DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES.
- YOU'RE WELCOME, YOU'RE WELCOME.
- BUT LET'S TALK ABOUT THE THREE REPUBLICANS
BESIDES PAUL NEHLEN.
YOU'VE GOT DAVE CRAIG WAS A PAUL RYAN STAFFER,
WHOSE CLAIM TO FAME IS HE DID A BILL THAT WAS SO BAD THAT EVEN--
RELATED TO GUNS THAT EVEN SCOTT WALKER WOULDN'T SIGN ONTO IT,
WHICH IS THE PUTTING CONCEALED WEAPONS IN SCHOOLS.
YOU'VE GOT SAM KERKMAN WHO HAS RAISED ABOUT $120,000
AFTER TEN YEARS IN OFFICE.
AND YOU'VE GOT BRYAN STEIL, WHO IS A UW REGENT.
YEAH, SOMEBODY WHO'S CLINGING TO HIGHER EDUCATION
IS DEFINITELY THE FRONT-RUNNER IN A REPUBLICAN PRIMARY.
- MEANWHILE, PETER BARCA SAYS HE'S CONSIDERING IT.
WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THAT? - I THINK IT'S LEGITIMATE.
I DON'T THINK RANDY BRYCE IS GOING TO GET THIS NOMINATION.
I THINK DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO LOOK BACK AND SAY, "WOW,
"THIS IS A DIFFERENT PLAYING FIELD NOW.
"WE HAVE AN OPEN SEAT. LET'S GET A CREDIBLE CANDIDATE."
I THINK YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT JIM KREUSER,
THE COUNTY EXECUTIVE OF KENOSHA COUNTY.
CORY MASON, THE MAYOR OF RACINE. - HE'S ALREADY SAID NO.
- PETER BARCA IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY.
I THINK RANDY BRYCE HAS BENEFITED FROM THE UBER-LIBERAL
MONEY ON THE EAST AND THE WEST COAST AND I THINK
THAT HE'S BEEN A USEFUL TOOL FOR THEM UP TO THIS POINT IN TIME.
BUT THEIR GOAL WAS TO TAKE DOWN PAUL RYAN,
WHO'S NO LONGER THERE.
- WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT PETER BARCA?
- I MEAN PETER BARCA WAS THE ASSEMBLY MINORITY LEADER.
HE SERVED HIS CONSTITUENTS WELL.
I THINK BILL'S TRYING TO CONCOCT SOMETHING OUT OF NOTHING.
THAT THERE' CACOPHONY AND DERISION IN THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE.
AND I GET IT. THAT'S YOUR JOB.
BUT I THINK WHEN PUSH COMES TO SHOVE,
YOU'VE GOT TWO CANDIDATES
WHO WERE IN THERE FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
ONE WITH SOME SIZABLE RESOURCES AND THE OTHER ONE WITH GOOD
RESOURCES AS WELL.
THEY BOTH HAVE GREAT PROFILES FOR THE DISTRICT.
- SO I KIND OF HEAR YOU SAYING THAT PETER BARCA
IS NOT YOUR PICK?
- I-- YOU KNOW, I ALWAYS JOKE, I'VE WRITTEN SO MANY
CONCESSION NIGHT SPEECHES FOR DEMOCRATS IN PRIMARIES
THAT IT'S ON MY RESUME AS A SKILL SET.
SO I DON'T PREDICT IN PRIMARIES.
FOR REPRESENTATIVE BARCA,
HE'D HAVE TO GIVE UP HIS SEAT TO DO IT.
NOW THAT'S WHY DAVE CRAIG HAS EMERGED AS A REAL CONTENDER
'CAUSE HE DOESN'T HAVE TO GIVE UP HIS STATE SENATE SEAT.
HE'S NOT UP.
ROBIN VOS HAS TO GIVE UP HIS SEAT.
SAM KERKMAN WOULD HAVE TO GIVE UP HER SEAT.
BUT I THINK THAT'S WHERE YOU'RE SEEING A LOT OF ASSEMBLY PEOPLE
ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE PASS SO FAR.
BECAUSE AGAIN, IF THE 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT IS SO
DARK RED, BILL, AS YOU ASSERT, YOU WOULD THINK PEOPLE WOULD BE
RUNNING TO TAKE THAT OPPORTUNITY
TO GET THE $175, 000 A YEAR SALARY.
'CAUSE AGAIN, PAUL RYAN, ONE THING NOT TO FORGET,
IN TWO YEARS PAUL RYAN IS GOING TO GET A $79,000 A YEAR
ANNUAL PENSION FOR LIFE PAID FOR BY PEOPLE
WHOSE BENEFITS HE HAS BEEN TRYING TO CUT HIS ENTIRE CAREER.
- THE WHITE MEN IN THE SMOKE-FILLED ROOMS ARE TRYING TO
RIG THIS PRIMARY FOR RANDY BRYCE.
DON'T COUNT CATHY MYERS OUT OF THAT DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY.
THIS IS THE YEAR OF THE WOMAN.
AND SHE'S RAISED DECENT AMOUNT OF MONEY.
SHE'S GOING TO BE HEARD.
- WHAT DOES THE FACT THAT PAUL RYAN IS NOT RUNNING
FOR RE-ELECTION MEAN FOR SCOTT WALKER, IF ANYTHING?
- I DON'T THINK IT MEANS MUCH.
I SUSPECT THAT PAUL RYAN WILL STILL BE A PLAYER IN THE 2018
ELECTIONS AND I'LL TELL YOU WHY.
HE'S GOT $11 MILLION LEFT IN THE BANK.
THERE'S NO QUESTION IN MY MIND.
I'VE SAID ON THIS PROGRAM BEFORE THAT DONALD TRUMP AND RON
JOHNSON DO NOT WIN IN WISCONSIN IN 2016 WITHOUT RYAN'S MONEY.
HE FUNDED THE INFRASTRUCTURE AND I THINK HE WILL BE ASKED AND HE
WILL DELIVER ON THAT AGAIN THIS TIME AROUND.
SO LOOK FOR SOME OF THAT $11 MILLION TO GO TO THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY OF WISCONSIN TO FUND THE INFRASTRUCTURE.
HE'S GOING TO BE IMPORTANT TO WALKER'S VICTORY.
- THE TROIKA OF BRADLEY FOUNDATION GEN XERS:
REINCE PRIEBUS, PAUL RYAN AND SCOTT WALKER.
THERE'S ONLY ONE LEFT AND IT'S SCOTT WALKER.
AND THAT'S GOING TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR HIM AGAIN BECAUSE
PAUL RYAN'S LEAVING BECAUSE DONALD TRUMP IS TOXIC
FOR THE GENERAL ELECTORATE.
I THINK THAT'S WHERE THINGS ARE GOING.
MARK MY WORDS.
2022 PRIMARY FORMER GOVERNOR SCOTT WALKER
VERSUS FORMER HOUSE SPEAKER PAUL RYAN
DUKING IT OUT FOR THE U.S. SENATE RACE.
[LAUGHTER]
- YOU DON'T BUY IT THAT PAUL RYAN IS LEAVING
BECAUSE DONALD TRUMP IS TOXIC?
- NO, HE'S ONE OF THE GUYS THAT ACTUALLY WHEN HE SAYS HE'S
LEAVING TO SPEND MORE TIME WITH HIS FAMILY,
HE'S ACTUALLY BEING HONEST ABOUT IT.
THIS IS A GUY WHO IS A FAMILY MAN.
IF YOU LOOK ON HIS FACEBOOK SITE OR ANY OF HIS SOCIAL MEDIA OR IF
YOU KNOW PAUL RYAN AT ALL WHICH I DO,
LOVES TO TAKE HIS KIDS HUNTING OR SKIING OR ON DIFFERENT
EXCURSIONS ON THE WEEKENDS.
BUT HE'S TIRED OF BEING A WEEKEND DAD.
THAT'S A TRUE STATEMENT.
- BUT WHO DOESN'T LOVE THEIR FAMILY?
- WELL, A LOT OF THEM GIVE UP A LOT OF TIME WITH THEIR FAMILY.
THEY MAKE A LOT OF SACRIFICES
FOR THE ABILITY TO SERVE THE PUBLIC.
AND IN PAUL RYAN'S CASE, HE SAID 20 YEARS IS ENOUGH.
IT'S TIME TO GO BACK TO THE FAMILY.
- BILL HAS A LOT OF INSIGHTS, BUT I THINK THAT HE WOULD AGREE
THAT PAUL RYAN'S PLAN HAD BEEN TO CURRENTLY BE SITTING IN HIS
SIX YEARS, BEING THE VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
IF THINGS HAD GONE PAUL RYAN'S WAY.
SO DO WE THINK PAUL RYAN WOULD BE SUDDENLY LEAVING WITH TWO
YEARS LEFT IN HIS SECOND TERM?
WOULD HE BE LEAVING TO SPEND MORE TIME WITH HIS FAMILY?
I THINK NOT. - WE NEED TO LEAVE IT THERE.
SCOT ROSS, BILL MCCOSHEN, THANK YOU.
- THANKS.